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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
TOMORROW
PPI (producers' prices) is out before the open along with initial jobless claims and business inventories. Investors are now looking for improving economic numbers given the view that the Fed is winding up its rate cutting: if the Fed is not going to aggressively cut, then let's see the economic improvement. That is what they are thinking, but they are not going to see it in Q2 earnings reports or Q2 economic numbers necessarily. We are seeing some Q2 economic news look better, but it is not the quantity yet that will satisfy those spooked by the Q2 earnings warnings.
That keeps the market on edge. The key is whether it can hold in the trading range it has developed the past month. Right now it is in an all out threat to those levels as far as the mood on the street. As far as the selling pressure, it is really not that heavy. Price and volume action remains decent, and that is a sign that the range will hold for now. If the indexes slip below the bottoms of the trading ranges on higher volume, however, there is more downside, and we are going to play the indexes lower with puts at that point.
But, that leads us back to the stocks that are working, the small and mid-cap varieties. As noted, they continued to hold up well in today's action as a whole, and some even broke out (e.g., DMRC, ORLY) while others are taking aim on doing the same. These are providing the best opportunity as the whipsaw action we see in the big name fallen leaders is not as prevalent. We still must be careful: we are seeing most of these breakouts hold up, but some are failing. That is always a caution flag, and it starts us looking at potentially shortening our profit goals on the breakouts. We are still seeing good enough moves to let them run for us, but we are also going to insert stop losses if we hit the target or get close to it; we do NOT want to let any gain slip away from us. The market is showing some weakness, and even the best breakouts will not hold up if the selling starts in earnest. For now the selling has been on weaker volume; the buying has not been on blowout volume by any stretch, but it has been stronger. If that changes and the indexes crack below the bottoms of their ranges, even these smaller stocks will feel the pressure. While they present the best upside patterns in overall market weakness, 3 out of 4 stocks follow the market. If we see the major indexes break down, use stop losses to protect positions or just sell if they move starts to reverse on you. Protect what you have when things get a bit choppier.
Overall we remain positive on the market longer term as there are good things going for it. What we are seeing here is short-term nervousness about Q2 which will be bad. Investors hope for better and then get disappointed. The futures were up after the close, but now they have weakened. We hope to see some weakness in the morning that tests close to these support levels and then a strong move higher. Yes we have seen that before, but that will be action we like for a move back up in the range. If they bomb through the bottom, at least we will know where they are heading and can take advantage of that.
Support and Resistance Levels
Nasdaq: Closed at 2121.66.
Resistance: 2194 may be some resistance at this point. Then 2250 - 2264.
Support: Simple 50 day MVA at 2091.57. After that the recent low before the last move up was at 2077.98. Before that it was 2052.14.
S&P 500: Closed at 1241.60.
Resistance: 1270 and then 1286 (its last high). Some resistance at 1300, but 1315.93 is the recent high it needs to plow back through.
Support: Right at its simple 50 day MVA (1239.48) and the intraday lows in its trading range (1240 and 1232). If they can hold, great. Otherwise, 1200 is down there next.
Dow: Closed at 10,871.62.
Resistance: As noted, 11,000 could act as some resistance, but after its break above that level a month ago, it has traded on both sides without much hesitation. Then 11,196.53 (the last top). After that, 11,350.
Support: The down trendline and the 50 day MVA (10,810.31 at the close) are still close together. The simple 50 day MVA and the 200 day MVA are below at 10,722.50 and 10,638.17, respectively, and both could combine to provide some good support if the selling continues.
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
6-13-01
Export Prices ex-ag., May (8:30): 0% versus 0% prior.
Import Prices ex-oil, May (8:30): -0.5% versus -0.5% prior.
Retail Sales, May (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.3% expected and 1.4% prior (up from 1.1%).
Retail Sales ex-auto, May (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.4% expected and 0.8% prior.
6-14-01
Initial Claims, 6/9 (8:30): 425K versus 432K prior.
PPI, May (8:30): 0.3% versus 0.3% prior.
Core PPI, May (8:30): 0.2% versus 0.2% prior.
Business Inventories, April (8:30): -0.1% versus -0.3% prior.
6-15-01
CPI, May (8:30): 0.4% versus 0.3% prior.
Core CPI, May (8:30): 0.2% versus 0.2%.
Industrial Production, May (9:15): -0.3% versus -0.3% prior.
Capacity Utilization, May (9:15): 78.0% versus 78.5% prior.
Mich Sentiment-Prel., June (10:00): 91.0% versus 92.0% prior.
For a review of frequently asked questions, please use the link below:
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THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: VAR finally made its comeback, gapping up over 8 points today. ORLY is trying to break out, and AW hit a new high. DLIA continued its fine breakout but looks ready to rest now.
Best Plays:
1) FHRX: Ready to break out.
2) OCLR: Pattern continues to look good.
3) NVDA: Looking for a bounce.
New Plays:
FHRX (First Horizon--$29.20; +1.64; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fhrx.html
STATUS: Gapped up and on stronger volume headed up, making a good move from the base of the handle (149,300; avg.177,272). FHRX is in a +5-month cup with handle base, and looks ready to break out here. Handle high is 29.85. Money flow is huge. Target: $34.
BUY POINT: 29.98, on volume of 266,000 or better. Stop: At the 10 day MVA, 27.80.
A buy on a breakout up to 31.48.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fhrx.html
PHLY (Philadelphia Consol--$32.05; -0.18; no options): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phly.html
STATUS: The sector hasn't been stellar of late, but this stock can make some good runs.
It was added to the S&P Small Cap 600 on May 31, which caused it to gap up on huge volume. The stock is now testing that breakout, pulling back to the 10 day MVA on the low of 31.61 then heading back up to show a tight doji. Volume was higher today at 86,800 (avg. 95,000). We are looking for a move over the breakout high of 33 on strong volume. The stock shows huge money flow and buying. Target: $40.
BUY POINT: Over 33 (June high) on volume in the range of 125,000. Stop: At or near the 18 day MVA at 30.61.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/phly.html
Updated:
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$22.93; +0.01; optionable (QLO): Health Service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: Still consolidating in the tightening pennant pattern (which has formed an ascending wedge in the last 2 weeks or so), showing another tight doji. Volume shot higher Wednesday, but has dropped back down again, still high at 148,500 (avg. 121,000). Looks great as the pattern holds above the 10 day MVA (22.74). Shows huge money flow and strong buying.
Target: $30.
BUY POINT: 24.05, on volume of 163,000 or better. Stop: At or near the 18 day MVA, 22.29. A buy on the breakout up to 25.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $20 calls to buy (QLO JD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/oclr.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS:
New Leaders: CPN, SGR, ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS, NVDA, BRKS
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
ESRX posted another new high today, but volume continues to drop off the stock will pull back outside of a rally.
NVDA (Nvidia--$93.79; -3.26; optionable (RVU): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Headed back down today, after making a stronger move Tuesday that was setting the stock up for a new high over 100 (May high). Volume was lower at 3.9 million (avg. 5.5 million), an indication for a bounce from the 18 day MVA (91.71) just as the stock did Monday. The market will help determine the strength of that move. Target: $115.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a bounce from the 18 day MVA on strong volume. Stop: 85.29. New high: Over 100 on above average volume. Stop: 93 (10 day MVA, 93.75).
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $85 calls to buy (RVU IQ). New high: Stock and/or September $95 calls to buy (RVU IS).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
Previous Leaders: EXTR pulled back to its 50 day MVA on lower volume, so may bounce from there.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Newer members of the portfolio are LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. Currently existing members are EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST.
ANF pulled back again, finding support at the 18 day MVA as it has the last 2 weeks.
HI (Household Internat--$65.25; -0.05; optionable (HI): Credit Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hi.html
STATUS: The stock has been in a pullback from the May high of 69.98 over the last four weeks, and yesterday tapped support of the 50 day MVA (64.36) on the low of 65.13. From there the stock bounced up, on volume that sustained Tuesday's levels at 1.48 million (avg. 2 million). The stock showed a tight doji just under its 18 day MVA (65.88) so we may see another test of the 50 day or at least 65, but the stock looks ready to head back up after this test. Target: $70.
BUY POINT: Over today's intraday high of 66.37 on average or better volume. Stop: 61.72.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (HI JL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hi.html
LOW (Lowe's--$73.90; +1.15; optionable (LOW): Retail: Home Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Made a stronger move, finding support at the 10 day MVA (72.25) and heading up on stronger volume of 2.3 million (avg. 3.2 million). The stock is right at resistance (74), and we are looking for a break to a new high. If the market doesn't support that move, look for another pullback to the 18 day MVA (70.72). Great money flow into the stock. Target: $85.
BUY POINT: Over 74 on average or better volume. Stop: 68.82.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $65 calls to buy (LOW JM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/low.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
No reports on stocks in this portfolio tonight.
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
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