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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: SOX; AV; AVAN; CFC; CPTV; EMBT; MOBE; NSM; NTPA; OLGC; RI
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/07/2003
DCEL (Dobson Communications--$8.9; +0.74; no options): Telecom Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcel.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. After a nice run up the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA) following the breakout from a flat base in May, DCEL surged up to 10 in a last run before needing a breather. It came back to the 50 day MVA (7.88) to end September, worked laterally for over a week at that level on some low volume, and then surged higher Tuesday as volume jumped. A very good, quiet rest, and now it looks as if this leader is ready to rally on the next leg higher.
Volume: 3.249M Avg Volume: 1.008M
BUY POINT: $9.06 Volume=1.5M Target=$10.88 Stop=$8.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dcel.html
Play Date: 10/07/2003
CTRA (Centra Software--$3.65; +0.2; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctra.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Another stock making a nice break higher and coming back to test the 50 day MVA (3.40). CTRA formed a nice and short double bottom with handle in June and July and broke out, running to 4 in early September. It has made a nice, low volume and orderly pullback to test the breakout, holding the 50 day MVA on the lows. Accumulation is an outstanding 6 to 0 (6 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume) with money flow rallying ahead of the stock. Volume jumped Tuesday as CTRA started the move up off the 50 day. Good place to pick up strong stocks.
Volume: 232.9K Avg Volume: 91.636K
BUY POINT: $3.73 Volume=150K Target=$4.85 Stop=$3.47
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctra.html
Play Date: 10/07/2003
SIGA (Siga Pharmaceuticals--$2.3; +0.29; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/siga.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SIGA is a stock we were watching work through the handle, and it made the break higher Tuesday before we could get it on the report. No problem, however, because it is still well withing the buy zone. It has worked through a 4.5 month base sporting incredible 7 to 0 accumulation; lots of buying and no selling. Money flow is shooting higher and relative strength broke out as well. It is pretty much showing aces across the board technically as it surged to the breakout Tuesday. Looking to pick it up on this move.
Volume: 714.476K Avg Volume: 143.045K
BUY POINT: $2.38 Volume=450K Target=$3.12 Stop=$2.14
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/siga.html
Pre-Split:
Play Date: 10/07/2003
KRON (Kronos--$55.63; +0.35; no options): Business equipment. Splits 3:2 on 11-3-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Rolling range. KRON was a pre-announcement candidate and then fell on harder times. It announced the split Tuesday as it comes off the bottom of its 3 month range between 52.50 and 60. We loke the rolling ranges as you can play the stock up to the top of the range. If it breaks out you have a nice winner on your hands. If it stalls out, you sell it, let it fall, and see if you can make the move again. Looking for some more volume as it moves over the simple 50 day MVA (55.56). Only has October options, something that is a drawback to the trade as it makes options less practical.
Volume: 156.26K Avg Volume: 159.363K
BUY POINT: $56.35 Volume=239K Target=$64.88 Stop=$54.35
POSITION: - Stock (only October options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 09/11/2003
DJO (DJ Orthopedics--$13.9; -0.1; no options): Medical appliances & equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/djo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DJO has formed a very nice handle to its 3 month base, working laterally at 14 and over the 10 day MVA (13.55). Very good money flow and strong relative strength. Solid 4 to 1 accumulation. Just looking for another break higher on volume for new positions.
Volume: 23.4K Avg Volume: 64.772K
BUY POINT: $14 Volume=100K Target=$16.45 Stop=$12.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/djo.html
Play Date: 10/02/2003
ECIL (ECI Telecom--$3.99; -0.03; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecil.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the big break higher in the last week of September, ECIL fell back and has now recovered, moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (3.94) on low volume. Still strong money flow and accumulation at 5 to 2 (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Showing a tight range this week and just waiting for another break higher on volume.
Volume: 93.446K Avg Volume: 259.272K
BUY POINT: $4.08 Volume=300K Target=$5.12 Stop=$3.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ecil.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
YUM (Yum! Brands--$31.57; +0.34; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good numbers after the close vaulted the stock to the breakout from its excellent 3 month base. We will watch it early and see where it comes back for the first test to move into positions. We would look for it to test toward the recent highs (31.70) and hold that level, starting back up from there. That is where we move in.
Volume: 1.209M Avg Volume: 1.067M
BUY POINT: New: after test toward 31.70, when it bottoms and starts back up (orig. $31.42) Volume=1.6M Target=$37 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: YUM AF - Jan. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yum.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: No split announced 10-07-03. Great earnings once again, but it gapped lower. Buers rushed in at that point and it recouped much of the losses. Handled it well, and we are holding tight for now, waiint for it to make its next move. Showed it strength, coming back from early adversity. Next buy at 69.55.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: Forecast 10-15-03 after the close.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03.
CHS: New. Forecast 12-2-03.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: No announcement with the 9-30 board meeting.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03. Looking to pinpoint another day.
DHR: No announcement with the 9-17-03 board meeting. Researching the next date.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting.
GDW: Forecast 10-15-03 in conjunction with earnings.
HAR: Announced its split Wednesday, ahead of schedule (forecast 10-29 with earnings). Moving well.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
JBLU: Forecast 10-23 with a board meeting.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
MERQ: Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: No split with earnings on 10-6, but great results and a big breakout move!
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.=
SYK: Forecast 10-16-03 after the market closes.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 10-7 before the market opens with earnings.
VRTS: Back on. Forecast 10-20-03.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/07/2003
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$50.06; +3.36; no options): Men's clothing. Forecast 12-1-03 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: No splits in the past.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Double bottom. JOSB is burning up the road, announcing great sales in July and again in August. It has formed a short 6 week base showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation and using the 50 day MVA (43.41) as support. It blasted higher Tuesday on a strong volume surge, the strongest in over two months. Looking to pick it up on a further move.
Volume: 392.7K Avg Volume: 205K
BUY POINT: $50.38 Volume=200K Target=$60.55 Stop=$46.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
Play Date: 10/07/2003
KMI (Kinder Morgan--$55.18; +0.3; optionable): Gas utilities. Researching a date, but a nice pattern and volume is surging.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3 for 2 on January 4, 1999.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmi.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. KMI is working in a short handle to its 4 month base sporting solid 5 to 2 accumulation. Volume has surged as it moved up from the September low at 52, and the past two sessions have shown surging trade as it tests the 10 day MVA (54.60). Looking for a break over 56 on this continued strong trade to start positions.
Volume: 875K Avg Volume: 495.772K
BUY POINT: $56.12 Volume=744K Target=$67.35 Stop=$54.48
POSITION: KMI AK - Jan. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmi.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$67.3; +0.13; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Flat. AVP has formed a short 5 week cup with handle, showing good action over the 50 day MVA (64.34). The past week it has moved over the 10 day MVA (66.09), working for the stronger move higher. Very solid and waiting for the next pus on volume to take additional positions.
Volume: 760.8K Avg Volume: 953.136K
BUY POINT: New: 67.88 (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$65.04
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$72.55; +0.81; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-15-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started up toward the breakout Tuesday, actually hitting the buy point but on continued below average volume. A very nice base and we are just waiting for the volume to start back up as the stock starts to move.
Volume: 258.6K Avg Volume: 367.545K
BUY POINT: $72.63 Volume=563K Target=$83.55 Stop=$70.62
POSITION: BCR AN - Jan. $70c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHS (Chicos Fas--$33.26; +0.51; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-2-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-27-02 at a stock price of $37.74. Prior to this split CHS has announced other splits in December: 12-01 and 12-99, so December is a favored month. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Looking really solid still as it tests the 10 day MVA (32.19). It is a nice looking 5 week double bottom base showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation with strong money flow and a relative strength breakout in the making. It has formed this handle, so now we are ready to buy if it moves through the buy point on a volume surge.
Volume: 789.2K Avg Volume: 1.186M
BUY POINT: $33.62 Volume=1.8M Target=$40.53 Stop=$31.42
POSITION: CHS BF - Feb. $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$58.99; -0.93; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-29-03 in conjunction with earnings or 11-20-03 at its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Handled the UOPX and APOL earnings well, testing the 18 day MVA (58.40) on the low and rebounding on rising volume. It took a tumble after it announced its last earnings and recovered quite well. It held up well Tuesday and still is in the pattern. Looking for the next breakout to take even more positions.
Volume: 835.218K Avg Volume: 683.409K
BUY POINT: New: $60.52 (orig. $59.42) Volume=1.1M Target=$69 Stop=$56.85
POSITION: UCS BL - Feb. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
JAH (Jarden--$37.63; -0.43; no options): Rubber & Plastics. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 2 for1 split on 5-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $37.10. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Looked as if it was ready to move Monday, but no volume. Tuesday it came back to the 10 day MVA (37.49) on higher but still very low trade. So, it is status quo in the breakout test, holding the 10 day in a tight range. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the prior base.
Volume: 134.5K Avg Volume: 195.772K
BUY POINT: $38.05 (orig. $33.72) Volume=270K Target=$44.45 Stop=$36.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 09/18/2003
ROST (Ross Stores--$50.25; +0.25; optionable): Discount apparel. Forecast to announce a split on 11-18-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $42.32.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume was up Tuesday as ROST started to make the move higher. Trade only made it to average, however, and after surging to 50.89 it fell back for just a slight gain. This sector is performing well, so being patient and letting it make the move on volume and hold it.
Volume: 800.976K Avg Volume: 754K
BUY POINT: $50.58 Volume=850K Target=$60 Stop=$48.62
POSITION: REQ BJ - Feb. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
SYK (Stryker--$77.03; +0.23; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was 4-22-03 no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still working in a nice 10 week base, now forming something of a handle to what is looking like a shallow cup. Volume has improved over the past week, coming in below average only one session, the Monday holiday session. It is trying to make the move, but keeps coming back. Looks as if it is just flexing its muscles before it makes the move. Accumulation remains at 2 to 0 in the 10 week pattern.
Volume: 862.6K Avg Volume: 741K
BUY POINT: New: $77.65 (orig. $77.12) Volume=1.1M Target=$88.65 Stop=$75.05
POSITION: SYK AO - Jan. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$72.43; -2.17; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 10-7-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $39.62. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Breakout. Earnings came but no split, and after a strong run the past week it gave back some gains. It tapped the 10 day MVA (70.49) on the low and rebounded smartly on volume, showing a doji on the close. It may need to take bit more rest back down to the 10 day, but the earnings were great and we won't be surprised if APOL and UOPX announce splits sometime in the next week.
Volume: 460.075K Avg Volume: 218.227K
BUY POINT: New: Test 70ish, then 71.50 on the way back up. Volume=328K Target=$79.88 Stop=$67.96
POSITION: UBL LN - Dec. $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$34.8; +0.51; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Test the 50 day MVA (32.38). Another nice move up off the 50 day, getting some above average volume Tuesday as it made the move. This is what we want to see, volume building ahead of the buy point. Now we will look for a move through the buy point on volume and start a position. At first we are looking at a partial, then after a break over 36, a test of that level and a move up to complete the buy.
Volume: 7.052M Avg Volume: 6.614M
BUY POINT: $35.74 Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.24
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
XRAY (Dentsply--$46.45; +0.39; optionable): Dental supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: XRAY continues to move well, holding the 10 day MVA (45.66) on the Monday and Tuesday low and rallying toward a new high. Volume, however, was not there this week. Need to see the strong volume as it breaks above the recent highs.
Volume: 342.811K Avg Volume: 397K
BUY POINT: New: $46.78 (orig. $45.58) Volume=625K Target=$54.55 Stop=$44.96
POSITION: XEQ AI - Jan. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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