|
|
trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: CHL; GRIC; INAP; MERQ; PTEK; TMWD; TWAV
Best Plays:
1) TARO: Nice base, good move underway.
2) PANL: Strong breakout undergoing a nice, orderly test.
3) ABMD: Still in the nice lateral breakout test.
4) EGOV: Moving on strong volume.
5) OPLK: Nice test that is now at the 10 day MVA.
6) TWAV: Volume is starting to rise as it moves off the 10 day MVA.
7) CYMI: Turning down at the 50 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/08/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$60.42; +2.09; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. Ready to make the breakout from its 15 week base sporting outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to just 1 down price week on rising volume) that indicates the stock has been under strong accumulation during the base. After it jused the 50 day MVA (55.21) as the bottom of the right shoulder, it started higher on swelling volume. Monday volume spiked and Wednesday it was back above average as it broke over the closing highs. Looks ready to continue.
Volume: 431.393K Avg Volume: 333.909K
BUY POINT: $60.62 Volume=501K Target=$72 Stop=$57.08
POSITION: QTT AL - Jan. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
PANL (Universal Display--$11.2; -0.23; no options): OLED's for flat panel displays
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/panl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PANL broke from a 4.5 month base 4 sessions back on a strong volume surge and has moved more or less laterally the past three sessions as it tests the move. A storng stock with a solid breakout tends to be stingy with its gains. We are expecting PANL to pullback, however, with a bit of market weakness and test toward 11 or the 10 day MVA (10.84) and then mount another rally. Super accumulation in the base at 6 to 3 accompanied by strong money flow. After a test back to support we are going to look for a move back up on rising volume.
Volume: 124.254K Avg Volume: 83.318K
BUY POINT: $11.25 Volume=175K Target=$13.55 Stop=$10.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/panl.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
DGII (Digi Intl.--$8.05; -0.09; no options): PC networking devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgii.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. DGII blasted out of a 9 week cup with handle five sessions back, gapping over the highs in the handle. It has moved laterally in a tight range since, holding over 8 on lower volume. Accumulation in the base was a strong 4 to 1 and relattive strength broke out with the stock, an indication fo the strength of the move. Another indication is the fact that it is holdin onto its gains in a tight range even as the market pulls back. It could test back from here toward the 10 day MVA (7.58); if it does we will let it rebound on higher volume and move in then. If it can make the move from here, however, we won't hesitate to move into positions.
Volume: 115.99K Avg Volume: 111.045K
BUY POINT: $8.28 Volume=167K Target=$10.12 Stop=$7.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dgii.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/08/2003
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$34.36; -1.53; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Put. DLTR was in a big double bottom with handle spanning 16 months. It has been bouncing between 34 and the 50 day MVA (35.38) in the handle, but Wednesday it turned over at the 50 day on a huge volume spike. That makes a lower high as it struggles below the 50 day. Looking for a quick downside move here.
Volume: 3.509M Avg Volume: 1.556M
BUY POINT: $33.96 Volume=1.8M Target=$30.92 Stop=$35.05
POSITION: DQO WG - Nov. $35p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dltr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.86; +0.01; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the big breakout in late September, ABMD has moved laterally over the 10 day MVA (8.49) on lower and lower volume and in a tightening range. Accumulation in the 4 month base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). A really nice pattern and breakout, and we are just waiting for it to make the next move on strong volume to get in.
Volume: 62.31K Avg Volume: 102.772K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 09/25/2003
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$18.35; +0.1; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AVO has come back to the 10 day MVA (18.18) after a low volume breakout attempt early in the month. Nice tight range at that level on low volume, but trade jumped well above average Wednesday. Money flow continues to rise as the stocks moves laterally, a nice addition to the solid accumulation.
Volume: 406.5K Avg Volume: 263.318K
BUY POINT: $18.48 Volume=1M Target=$22.22 Stop=$17.45
POSITION: AVO AW - Jan. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
BRCM (Broadcom--$30.24; -0.61; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice break higher Tuesday on excellent volume. Wednesday BRCM was selling back to test the move on very low, below average trade. We took a partial position on the break higher, and we are looking to add to it if the stock tests 30 to 29.50ish and turns back up on a strong volume shot. Accumulation is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) in the solid 12 week base.
Volume: 9.637M Avg Volume: 13.022M
BUY POINT: New: Test 30 to 29.50 (orig. $29.91) Volume=20M Target=$35.88 Stop=$27.82
POSITION: RCQ AY - Jan. $27.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
CRA (Applera--$12.11; -0.22; optionable): Scientific and technical
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CRA has just about completed forming the right shoulder to its 17 week base, holding over the 10 day MVA (11.97) the past week. Solid accumulation and money flow moving up ahead of the price. Looking for volume to break back above average on a move through the buy point.
Volume: 412K Avg Volume: 494.136K
BUY POINT: $12.68 Volume=731K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.72
POSITION: CRA AV - Jan. $12.50c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cra.html
Play Date: 10/06/2003
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$5.11; +0.38; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Made the break higher off the 10 day MVA (4.75) on a tremendous volume surge. Pulled back off the high (5.25), but an excellent rebound to start the next leg. Still a buy at this point. 2 to 1 accumulation in the 9 week base. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 1.352M Avg Volume: 236.318K
BUY POINT: New: $5.15 (orig. $5.07) Volume=264K Target=$6.35 Stop=$4.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
Play Date: 09/22/2003
IFLO (I-Flow--$10.61; -0.29; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iflo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. IFLO continues to move laterally over the 18 day MVA (10.54) on low, below average volume. This move comes after a solid breakout early in September. A good consolidation of the move if a big lengthy. Just waiting patiently for the break higher over 11 on some strong trade.
Volume: 117.589K Avg Volume: 307K
BUY POINT: $11.06 Volume=375K Target=$13.26 Stop=$10.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iflo.html
Play Date: 10/06/2003
MER (Merrill Lynch--$56.9; -0.2; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Flat base. Right up to the September high on low, below average volume. Not a lot of power as it tests that high, and we will need to see a strong move on volume if it comes. An 11 week base showing strong 5 to 2 accumulation.
Volume: 3.949M Avg Volume: 5.531M
BUY POINT: $57.62 Volume=6.5M Target=$66.25 Stop=$54.98
POSITION: MER AK - Jan. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mer.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
MTCH (Metron Technology--$4.69; -0.09; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtch.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Dropped down to the 18 day MVA (4.66) Wednesday, showing a very tight doji on low volume. MTCH has consistentlyused the 18 day as support as it works higher in the pattern, and the tight doji indicates it may be ready to make the breakout move. A nice 6 week base sporting solid 4 to 0 accumulation.
Volume: 26.1K Avg Volume: 95.863K
BUY POINT: New: $5.08 (orig. $4.78) Volume=127K Target=$5.98 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtch.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
OPLK (Oplink Communications--$2.58; -0.11; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oplk.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A very nice, orderly move back to test the 10 day MVA (2.54) on lower and lower, below average volume. Moving in a nice tight range as it makes the test. Strong money flow and good accumulation. Waiting for volume to kick back up and a move over the recent highs.
Volume: 539.69K Avg Volume: 837K
BUY POINT: New: $2.82 (orig. $2.62) Volume=978K Target=$3.28 Stop=$2.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oplk.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
SCMR (Sycamore Networks--$5.14; -0.06; optionable): PC networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scmr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Decent move Tuesday on rising volume but not huge. Wednesday it tested back fractionally on lower volume. Looking for a test of 5 and then a rebound on above average volume. Money flow remains very strong and excellent 7 to 1 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 1.546M Avg Volume: 2.158M
BUY POINT: New: Test 5 and then $5.12 Volume=3.1M Target=$6.41 Stop=$4.76
POSITION: SMZ AA - Jan. $5c (52 delta) &.or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scmr.html
Play Date: 10/02/2003
TWAV (Therma-Wave--$3.7; +0.13; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twav.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TWAV continues to edge higher over the 10 day MVA (3.49) as volume edges higher as well. TWAVE broke out from its 3 month cup with handle base in mid-September. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 4 to 1 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). Strong, rising money flow. Volume needs to be a lot better on a further move.
Volume: 511.443K Avg Volume: 502.136K
BUY POINT: New: 3.75 (orig $3.65) Volume=600K Target=$4.75 Stop=$3.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/twav.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/01/2003
CYMI (Cymer--$41.26; -0.89; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: Put. CYMI rallied back to the 50 day MVA (42.94) after a high volume break below that level at the end of September. Volume backed off to below average as it made the rebound. After four sessions banging its head at 42.88 it started down Wednesday. Looking for more volume on a continued drop.
Volume: 1.239M Avg Volume: 1.472M
BUY POINT: $40.94 Volume=2.1M Target=$36.75 Stop=$42.38
POSITION: CQG WI - Nov. 45p (-37 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
DGIN (Digital Insight--$20.1; +0.05; optionable): Consumer services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgin.html
STATUS: Put. DGIN tapped the 10 day MVA (20.42) last Friday and dropped. It managed to hold 19.50 on the low all week before bouncing up fractionally Wednesday on lower, below average volume, showign a tight doji back at the 10 day. Looks ready to continue lower down the 10 day MVA.
Volume: 462.909K Avg Volume: 526K
BUY POINT: New: $19.62 (orig. $19.85) Volume=783K Target=$17.85 Stop=$20.85
POSITION: UGU WD - Nov. $20p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dgin.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
stock recommendation
|
