us stock market, stock split

Begin Part 4 of 4

SHFL (Shuffle Master--$29.40; +1.14; optionable): Manufacturing. Splits 2:1 effective June 19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Last week's bounce from the 50 day MVA (28.35) gave us a good move, but it could not make it back up to the recent high at 34.95, running out of gas at 32.78. Today it gapped back below the 50 day, but was able to recover and close above that level with a $3 intraday move. Not too promising at the moment, and we are fast approaching the split date. Strictly an aggressive momentum play over the 10 day MVA (30.28), using care to protect our positions with stops. There are better ones out there.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over the 10 day MVA, with stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (SFQ HE low open interest), protecting positions carefully as it move up.

FCEL (Fuelcell--$63.28; -3.72; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective June 20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcel.html
STATUS: Tanked the last few days on news that it was conducting a public offering, and today the stock tanked back through its 200 day MVA (66). Not looking good going into next week's split. No positions.

ESRX (Express Scripts--$107.76; -0.19; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective on or about June 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: ESRX has made a great move since its split announcement, and hit a new high of 108.70 today. The pattern was a doji, however, which indicates a possible pull back down, and the 10 day MVA (104.39) has been strong support on this move up. We will see if it visits the 10 day again, and see if it can make yet another move as it goes toward next week's split.
PLAY: After showing on a move down that it can hold support at the 10 day MVA, a move back up from that level, with stock and/or August $100 calls to buy (XTQ HT).

DAKT (Daktronics--$31.56; +0.06; no options): Scientific & Technical Instruments. Splits 2:1 effective June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
STATUS: Made an outstanding move from its 50 day MVA (26.09), but showed the topping sign Tuesday when it closed well off its intraday high of 34.50. It obliged by pulling back, but after tapping near its 10 day MVA (30.41) yesterday the stock showed a 'shooting star' doji today. That is a bullish indicator, so we will see if the stock can make a move back up toward the high. Good relative strength, money flow and buying.
PLAY: A move back up from here, with stock.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

ACF (Americredit--$46.49; -1.51; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ACF has fallen back out of the fine consolidation it had formed. Today it dropped heavily and on big volume (1.5 million; average 1 million), closing just over its 50 day MVA (46.29) after tapping 45 at its low. The stock has made a very strong run for us on the report, making a great move mid-May and establishing a high of 55. Not a play from here, so we will see if it can recover.

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$56.43; -0.41; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 9:30 ET.
STATUS: ASFC has not been able to keep anything going, and indeed it has pulled back the last few days from an attempted move off of its 50 day MVA (56.12). The 50 day has been pretty strong support, and there is additional support from highs from the lower portion of ASFC's former cup pattern. We will again see if it can hold, but it has had trouble getting any volume behind it on a move up. The high on this move was 57.50, with the all-time high at 58.50. We have to be patient with this one.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 57.50 with continued strong volume (412,400; average 364,000). Breakout: Over 58.50 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (AQR GK).

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$66.82; -1.18; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Did not show us much on the recent breakout from its cup with handle, hitting a high of 72.90 but promptly pulling back and consolidating in the 68-70 range. It has now fallen back through key support at the 50 day MVA (67.47), moving in a small head-and-shoulders at the moment. We will see if it can recover, but if it cannot we can look at a put play down, with the pattern indicating a possible move to the 63 range. Volume was not that high on the selling, so we will want to see stronger selling on the next move. The March high is at 64, but our target will be 63, with the 200 day MVA at 61.15.
BUY POINT: On a move back down on increased volume near the average (161,300; today up to 107,900) after a failed test of the 50 day.
POSITION: July $80 puts to buy (CBH SP).

GNTX (Gentex--$24.80; -4.18):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gntx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-21-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting (the company has announced three splits with shareholder meetings). The stock price was $35. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 4:30 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has suffered the last week after being very strong, and on a warning today GNTX was hammered, dropping all the way down to tap its 200 day MVA at its low of 24.30. It bounced up to 27.20, but retreated again to close. Before this drop stops should have been triggered, but if not, we can see if there is another bounce up near 27 for a better exit point. Dropping.

IGT (International Game Technology--$61.75; -2.03; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that IGT has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT showed some weakness with the market, dropping back today on increased volume (786,600; average 819,000). It dipped back below the 18 day MVA (62.23) and its closing high on its initial breakout move from a cup with handle (May high at 62.30), and is now looking at the 50 day MVA (58.48) and its former breakout level of 59. We will see if it can recover, however, as the stock has been very strong, making very solid moves up since April and its May breakout. We were protecting positions carefully, as indicated in recent reports, so for new positions we will need to see it hold on and perhaps consolidate.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move back over 64 on increased volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (IGT GL).

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$68.30; -0.50):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Fell back out of the tight, lateral consolidation it had formed over its 18 day MVA (70.02), and steadily dropped before holding support at its 50 day MVA (68.42) the last three sessions. Volume spiked up today (175,600; average 141,300) as the stock hit 67.90 at its low. We will see if it can hold. It has made quite a move over the past year, more recently making a strong move up out of a saucer pattern in April, hitting a breakout high of 73.98. It has to come back with something sustained.
BUY POINT: A move back over 72 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).

MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$54.83; -4.46; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: With the former leading techs we have on the report, we are used to seeing them jerk back and forth with the whim of the market. The stock took out its 50 day MVA (35.74) yesterday, then dropped below its recent lows (58 range) today. Volume has taken off with the selling, coming in Thursday at 6.15 million (average 219,500). In continued weakness we will see if we can get in a put play. However, we are not looking to chase on a drop from here, but will be patient and see if we get a bounce back up. On a failure of that move we can look at puts, perhaps on selling back Monday. Our initial target would be the 50 range (March high), but a weak market could drag it lower.
BUY POINT: We could see some initial selling, but will look for a bounce back up. On a failure of that move in the 54-58 range, we will look at puts on strong selling back down.
POSITION: July $65 puts to buy (RQB SM).

MMM (Minnesota Mining--$120.76; -1.19):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-15-94 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $102. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-8-01 at 10:00 am CT at which time no additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: MMM broke from a cup with handle in mid-May, but after pulling back and testing the 50 day MVA (currently 117.41), the stock has pulled back up and is in a consolidation just over its prior handle and its 18 day MVA (120.41). Not looking too bad here as volume is tame, coming in at 1.38 million today (average 2.28 million). The breakout high in mid-May was 127, but the last two moves have stopped at 123.09 and at Wednesday's high of 124.
BUY POINT: A move back over 124 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $120 calls to buy (MMM GD).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

BRCD (Brocade--$39.27; -2.66; optionable (UBF): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: Pulled back to its 50 day MVA (42.25) Wednesday, and gapped below that level today but held on pretty well for a doji. Volume continued to rise (26.3 million; average 14.6 million), and off of this pattern we could get a bounce with the market. However, we will not be jumping on the band wagon, but will see if it can crack back over the 50 day and 18 day (at 43.24), watching for a failure of those moves and a possible drop back with the market. Nothing for Friday.

DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$61.60; -1.30; optionable): Health services. Split 2:1 June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: The stock had been moving up in stair-step fashion, surging up and then pulling back to the short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day at 63.52 and 62.88, respectively), and was still looking good before the last couple of sessions. It has pulled back, gapping down and showing a doji today. However, volume has been low on the drops (down to 276,700 today; average 398,000), and this doji is in the range of its late-May consolidation. Therefore, it could hold and make a bounce up, but we are not looking at positions until it can make a strong move back into its consolidation range.
PLAY: A move over 65 on increased volume near the average, with stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (DGX HL).

EMLX (Emulex--$31.85; -2.63; optionable (UMQ): Computer Hardware: Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emlx.html
STATUS: EMLX broke below the lows in its recent lateral range below the 50 day MVA (37.06), dipping on very strong volume of 10.5 million (average 6.28 million, and volume has been well below that level in much of the consolidation). We are looking at a possible bounce in the market, and we will see if EMLX can move back over the former lows in that consolidation at 33-34, and if it cannot or cannot hold, we will be ready to take put positions on a strong move back down by the stock and the market. Our initial target will be in the 25-27 range.
PLAY: After a failed move back up to the 33-34 range, a move down with the market on continued strong selling volume, with July $40 puts to buy (UMQ SH).

FIC (Fair Isaac--$52.38; -1.15; no options): Split 3:2 effective June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Business services. The stock has made a great run for us since breaking out from a cup with handle in January back in the 35 range. It formed another cup with handle over that original base, then on a breakout from there it made a flying plateau, from which it broke on a pre-split move. The stock has been strong post-split, and tried another move Wednesday, reaching up to 53.50 before the market pulled back, and today it tapped down to its 18 day MVA at its low of 51.61 before pulling up a bit to close. Still holding up very well, but on any play from here we will carefully protect positions on a move up. Relative strength is solid, with good money flow and buying.
PLAY: A move over 53.33 on increased volume (down to 109,800 today; average 89,400). Stock only.

GENZ (Genzyme--$51.78; -1.67; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Biotechnology. Made a solid move after the split, hitting a new high of 58.44 before pulling back to the 50 day MVA (51.92). The stock sprung from that level Tuesday after gapping down to it, but the move died with the market at 55.76 Wednesday, leading to today's drop back that just took the stock through support. We will look for GENZ to hold here, in the range of its May consolidation, and try a move back up when the market give it a chance.
PLAY: Aggressive: A solid bounce move up with the market, watching the 10 day MVA (54.11) and the recent high as potential resistance. Could be a quick play if the a market bounce is short-lived, looking at stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (GZQ JK).

IVX (Ivax--$37.50; -0.23; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 5:4 on May 21.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivx.html
STATUS: Has made a phenomenal move post-split, sparked by some good news on a drug product. The stock has pulled back off of the high of 39.39, leveling out a bit over its 10 day MVA (36.47). We were looking for the pullback, as the stock had made a move of over 20% on the breakout, but if it can hold here and perhaps consolidate a bit more, we will look for a strong move up off of this pattern. Today the stock showed a tight doji on volume that was very light at 741,400 (average 1.38 million).
PLAY: Aggressive: After showing that it can hold the 10 day MVA, a strong move up over 38 with above average volume, and stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IVX IG).

JNJ (Johnson&Johnson--$50.91; +0.20; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: Made a nice pre-split move, and is currently consolidating along the 10 day MVA (50.59) after a slight pullback. The stock is back in the range of the initial breakout high (from a cup with handle, in May), and is looking ahead to the pre-split high of 51.75. Looking for it to hold onto support and avoid the post-split blues. The stock shows excellent relative strength, with great money flow and solid buying.
PLAY: Breakout: Over 51.75 with increased volume (5.44 million today; average 5.4 millino), with stock and/or October $47.50 calls to buy (JNJ JW).

LH (Laboratory Corp--$76.46; -1.73; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Gave us an outstanding pre-split move, but gapped back down post-split, and today dropped off a bit more, although volume was not intense (down to 494,200; average 480,000). It tapped its 18 day MVA at its low of 75.55, which is also the level of its April high. Consequently, we will see if it can hold here and try a move back up. If we get a bounce it could be a quick play, watching for signs of weakening in the stock and in the market.
PLAY: Aggressive: In a market bounce, up over 77.50 (10 day MVA at 77.39) on increased volume, with stock and/or August $75 calls to buy (LH HO).

SEBL (Siebel--$39.19; -5.91; optionable) (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: SEBL got creamed, gapping down and then continuing to fall with huge selling volume (27 million; average 16.9 million). Very weak, but we could get a selling reprieve if the market takes a relief bounce. In that instance, we will look for SEBL to make a move back up toward the 42-43 range, but if it stalls and the market falls back heavily, a put play back down. Once again, this might not be until Monday. Initial target: 34.
PLAY: A move down on continued strong volume after a failed move up, with August $50 puts to buy (SGW TJ).

WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.82; -0.03; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Continues in a handle to a cup pattern, holding on to its 18 day MVA (27.58) as volume continues to be very light (down to 217,100; average 483,200). We will want to see the stock make its way back up and give us a breakout for positions.
PLAY: Breakout 29.55 on volume of 720,000, with stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (FMQ HY - low open interest).

Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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