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Begin part 3 of 3
Economic Calendar
10-7-03
Consumer credit, August (3:00): $8.2B actual, $6.5B expected, $6.0B July.
10-8-03
Wholesale inventories, August (10:00): -0.2% actual, 0.1% expected, 0.0% July.
10-9-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 382K actual, 394K expected, 405K prior (revised from 399K).
10-10-03
Trade balance, August (8:30): -$41.5B expected, -$40.3B July.
PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% August.
Core PPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% August.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Thursday: AV; CHS; EBAY; COLM; CPTV; DJO; HDTV; HOTT; JBLU; OLGC
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/09/2003
MBG (Mandalay Resort Group--$39; +0.87; optionable): Resorts & Casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbg.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. After a strong, steady move up the 10 and 18 day MVA after breaking out of 9 month base in June, MBG has come back to test the 50 day MVA (38.05). It is typical for a strong stock to breakout, run up the 10 and 18 day MVA four to five times, and then come back to test the 50 day before resuming its move. After closing on that level Wednesday, it started up Thursday on a strong shot of above average volume. It stalled out at the 18 day MVA (39.41) on the high, and that is the point we want to see it break on strong volume before we enter.
Volume: 3.412M Avg Volume: 1.217M
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=1.8M Target=$45.38 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: MBG AU - Jan. $37.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbg.html
Play Date: 10/09/2003
PKI (Perkinelmer--$16.92; +0.4; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PKI is moving through a short but sweet 6 week base showing strong 3 to 0 accumulation. It has used the 50 day MVA (15.74) as the bottom of the legs. Thursday PKI started higher on very strong trade, moving toward a breakout but not quite getting there. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout with the stock. Looks solid.
Volume: 1.624M Avg Volume: 715.454K
BUY POINT: $17.18 Volume=1.1M Target=$20.65 Stop=$16.21
POSITION: PKI AC - Jan. $15c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pki.html
New Post-Split:
Play Date: 10/09/2003
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$56.94; +1.82; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: Trading range breakout. ZBRA worked through a 2.5 month trading range between 50 and 56. During that base it showed strong accumulation at 6 to 2; solid accumulation. After moving laterally for three sessions right at the breakout point this week ZBRA blasted through the resitance at the top of th range on a strong volume surge. That is the breakout move we look for. Money flow is storng and leading the way. Looking at positions on a further move.
Volume: 539.969K Avg Volume: 413.045K
BUY POINT: $57.25 Volume=600K Target=$66.45 Stop=$53.62
POSITION: BRU BY - Feb. $56.625c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/07/2003
DCEL (Dobson Communications--$8.8; -0.1; no options): Telecom Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcel.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. After a big jump off the 50 day MVA (7.96) Tuesday, DCEL stalled out the past two sessions, holding over the 10 day MVA (8.47) on intraday tests as it works on clearing 9. Looks solid and looking for that high volume break over that resistance level.
Volume: 1.416M Avg Volume: 1.065M
BUY POINT: $9.06 Volume=1.5M Target=$10.88 Stop=$8.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dcel.html
Play Date: 10/02/2003
ECIL (ECI Telecom--$4.14; +0.21; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecil.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Blasted higher Thursday, but as did the market, it gave back much of the move off the high (4.40). Volume surged as we wanted. Never like a reversal on a breakout attempt, but the action was not that bad and it di hold the pattern. With the strong accumulation at at 5 to 2 (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) and excellent money flow, we are looking for ECIL to resume its move.
Volume: 644.542K Avg Volume: 236.045K
BUY POINT: New: $4.22 (orig. $4.08) Volume=300K Target=$5.12 Stop=$3.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ecil.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: No split announced 10-07-03. Still looking for a possible announcement in the next week.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: Forecast 10-15-03 after the close.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03.
CHS: New. Forecast 12-2-03. Blasted higher on strong trade!
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: No announcement with the 9-30 board meeting.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03. Looking to pinpoint another day.
DHR: No announcement with the 9-17-03 board meeting. Researching the next date.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting.
GDW: Forecast 10-15-03 in conjunction with earnings.
HAR: Announced its split Wednesday, ahead of schedule (forecast 10-29 with earnings). Moving well.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
JBLU: Announced a bit early on us, but no problem as we have been in JBLU for a long time and have racked up a great gain!
JOSB: Forecast 12-1-03.
KMI: Still researching the exact date.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
MERQ: New information. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: No split with earnings on 10-6, but great results and a big breakout move!
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings. Big blast higher!
SYK: Forecast 10-16-03 after the market closes.
UOPX: No split with earnings on 10-7, but still looking for an announcement in the next week.
VRTS: Back on. Forecast 10-20-03.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$66.6; -0.35; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Flat. Still in the handle of the short 5 week cup with handle, AVP continues to hold over the 10 day MVA (66.31) as it works to complete the base on low, below average volume. Nice, steady and orderly action, and we are just waiting for the stock to make the breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 679.7K Avg Volume: 953.59K
BUY POINT: New: 67.88 (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$65.04
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$72.58; +0.83; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-15-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on making the breakaway move, but not yet getting the volume it needs to breakout of its 4.5 month cup with handle base. Looks solid as it works up the 10 day MVA (71.77).
Volume: 185.3K Avg Volume: 367.772K
BUY POINT: New: $73.05 (orig. $72.63) Volume=563K Target=$83.55 Stop=$70.62
POSITION: BCR AN - Jan. $70c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$56.96; -0.87; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-29-03 in conjunction with earnings or 11-20-03 at its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Has pulled back with the other education stocks, moving back to the 50 day MVA (56.48) on below average volume. A nice pullback, and this is where we expect to see a strong stock find buyers and make the next move higher. COCO is working off the earnings news from APOL (not bad news but the stocks had run), and on a bounce on volume we will add some positions.
Volume: 660.886K Avg Volume: 692.681K
BUY POINT: New: $60.52 (orig. $59.42) Volume=1.1M Target=$69 Stop=$56.85
POSITION: UCS BL - Feb. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$57.34; +1.41; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 at stock price of $21.84. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Flat base. After a nice breakout last week, COLM came back to test the 10 day MVA (55.55) on low, below average volume. When the retail sales high Thursday it shot higher, rallying to 59.15 on the high but giving back almost $2 of the move. Volume was back above average and strong. We think today was a trial run and are looking for COLM to start right back up.
Volume: 311.948K Avg Volume: 223.318K
BUY POINT: New: $57.72 (orig. $54.12) Volume=475K Target=$64.95 Stop=$53.45
POSITION: TQQ AK - Jan. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 10/07/2003
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$50.35; -1; no options): Men's clothing. Forecast 12-1-03 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: No splits in the past.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Big break higher Thursday, but could not hold the move that started on Wednesday. Still a solid 6 week base but it may come back to form a handle here with a lateral move laong 50 or just below that level. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation, and used the 50 day MVA as support in the pattern.
Volume: 802.081K Avg Volume: 197.954K
BUY POINT: New: $50.55 after a lateral move (orig. $50.38) Volume=200K Target=$60.55 Stop=$46.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
Play Date: 10/07/2003
KMI (Kinder Morgan--$55.25; +0.24; optionable): Gas utilities. Researching a date, but a nice pattern and volume is surging.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3 for 2 on January 4, 1999.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmi.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Continues to work on the handle to the 4 month base that has formed over the 50 day MVA (53.60). You like to see a stock form up over such a level as it shows there is big money supporting the stock. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the base. Just being patient and letting the pattern develop and provide the breakout.
Volume: 475K Avg Volume: 500.772K
BUY POINT: $56.12 Volume=744K Target=$67.35 Stop=$54.48
POSITION: KMI AK - Jan. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmi.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$39.5; +0.24; optionable): Retail auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings or on 11-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events. BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ORLY tested the 50 day MVA (37.55) to end September and then jumped up off that level to begin the new quarter. Volume has not been huge and it stalled at the September high at 40. It is making a very orderly test of the 10 day MVA (38.98), however, and it looks as if it is going to make a higher low here and start back up.
Volume: 229.445K Avg Volume: 357.909K
BUY POINT: New: $40.18 (orig. $39.48) Volume=350K Target=$47.05 Stop=$38.02
POSITION: OQR BH - Feb. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
SYK (Stryker--$76.26; -0.02; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was 4-22-03 no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Flat base. This has the look of one last shakeout, that is, a lower volume pullback to test near support in the form of the 10 and 18 day MVA (tapped the 18 day on the Thursday low at 75.87). Often a stock will do this and the last sellers bail out, fearing another failure. Showing a tight doji at the 10 day MVA, we will wait for SYK to deliver the next strong volume break higher. Accumulation remains at 2 to 0 in the 10 week pattern.
Volume: 560.4K Avg Volume: 745.136K
BUY POINT: New: $77.65 (orig. $77.12) Volume=1.1M Target=$88.65 Stop=$75.05
POSITION: SYK AO - Jan. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$71; +0.25; optionable): No split announced on 10-7-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings, but we could very well see a split in the coming week.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $39.62. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Breakout. Was pushed back after reporting good earnings on the heels of a strong run. It has come back to test the 18 day MVA (69.53), tapping that on the Thursday low and showing a doji on rising, above average volume. This stock looks ready to turn back up and rally from here.
Volume: 254.207K Avg Volume: 222.954K
BUY POINT: New: 71.50 Volume=328K Target=$79.88 Stop=$67.96
POSITION: UBL LN - Dec. $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/07/2003
KRON (Kronos--$56.52; +0.01; no options): Business equipment. Splits 3:2 on 11-3-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Rolling range. KRON tried to continue the move but did not attract any volume Wednesday and showed a doji Thursday as it tapped the late September high (57.95) and fell back. It may come back to test the 50 day MVA (54.95) before trying the move again. That would be the preferable action as it would give it a rest and a running start at that resistance.
Volume: 140.856K Avg Volume: 154.454K
BUY POINT: $56.35 Volume=239K Target=$64.88 Stop=$54.35
POSITION: - Stock (only October options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
PSC (Philadelphia Suburban--$24.8; -0.11; optionable): Water utility. Splits 5:4 on 12-2-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PSC rallied on below average volume to start the month, peaked at 25 and has edged lower to test the 10 day MVA, tapping it on the lows Wednesday and Thursday (24.65). Looking for it to hold the 10 day and then rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 99.4K Avg Volume: 202.318K
BUY POINT: $24.94 Volume=210K Target=$28.75 Stop=$24.26
POSITION: PSC LX - Dec. $22.50c (99 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psc.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COH (Coach--$29.89; +1.1; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Breakout. After a choppy September, COH bottomed at the end of the month and then started to rally. It stalled at the September high (29.83) and eased back to the 10 day MVA (28.70) on below average volume. It then blasted higher Thursday on the retail sales news as volume surged. COH did what we wanted the market to do: a low volume test of the short term MVA, making a higher low and then blasting through the September high on volume. That makes this a nice play here.
Volume: 2.081M Avg Volume: 1.592M
BUY POINT: New: $30.12 (orig. $29.75) Volume=1.2M Target=$35 Stop=$27.67
POSITION: COH KL - Nov. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$28.17; +0.06; optionable): Video poker, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. IGT broke out and ran up to 29 in September, and is now taking a breather, testing the 18 day MVA (28.16). Thursday it held that level, showing a nice hammer doji. After a pullback that candlestick pattern can signal a change in direction. Looking for it to move over the 10 day MVA (28.42) on strong volume.
Volume: 2.743M Avg Volume: 2.344M
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=4.7M Target=$34.55 Stop=$27.94
POSITION: IGT AY - Jan. $27.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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