stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 2 of 2

Again we apologize for the late delivery. Unexpectedly severe weather in the area with tornadoes and flooding forced the staff to relocate, causing delays in production.

Economic Calendar

10-7-03
Consumer credit, August (3:00): $8.2B actual, $6.5B expected, $6.0B July.

10-8-03
Wholesale inventories, August (10:00): -0.2% actual, 0.1% expected, 0.0% July.

10-9-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 382K actual, 394K expected, 405K prior (revised from 399K).

10-10-03
Trade balance, August (8:30): -$41.5B expected, -$40.3B July.
PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% August.
Core PPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% August.

SEMINARS ON CD

http://www.stockseminarsonline.com

This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.

THE PLAYS

In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.

Good movers Thursday: ALGN; BRCM; CHL; CVM; GRIC; HDTV; INSP; PANL; TARO; TWAV; TZA

NEW PLAYS:

Upside:

Play Date: 10/09/2003
CAMD (California Micro Devices--$0; 0; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/camd.html
STATUS: Pennant. CAMD exploded higher 3 weeks back, blowing out of a 14 month base. An outstanding move on an increased outlook for earnings. It has moved laterally over the 10 day MVA (7.36) with volume trickling to a mere dribble this week. A powerful move and a very nice, orderly consolidation. We will move in when it makes the break higher on a nice volume surge.
Volume: 59,200 Avg Volume: 300K
BUY POINT: $7.85 Volume=500K Target=$9.48 Stop=$7.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/camd.html

Play Date: 10/09/2003
MBG (Mandalay Resort Group--$39; +0.87; optionable): Resorts & Casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbg.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. After a strong, steady move up the 10 and 18 day MVA after breaking out of 9 month base in June, MBG has come back to test the 50 day MVA (38.05). It is typical for a strong stock to breakout, run up the 10 and 18 day MVA four to five times, and then come back to test the 50 day before resuming its move. After closing on that level Wednesday, it started up Thursday on a strong shot of above average volume. It stalled out at the 18 day MVA (39.41) on the high, and that is the point we want to see it break on strong volume before we enter.
Volume: 3.412M Avg Volume: 1.217M
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=1.8M Target=$45.38 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: MBG AU - Jan. $37.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mbg.html

CONTINUING PLAYS:

Upside:

Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.5; -0.36; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ABMD continues to work laterally over the 10 day MVA (8.49), testing the strong breakout from its 4 month base showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). It closed at the 10 day MVA on continued below average volume. Still waiting for the break higher from the nice lateral test of the breakout.
Volume: 74.57K Avg Volume: 103.045K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html

Play Date: 10/01/2003
CRA (Applera--$12.22; +0.11; optionable): Scientific and technical
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still holding over the 18 day MVA (11.82) on below average volume. A very nice 17 week base with solid accumulation and money flow moving up ahead of the price.
Volume: 400.3K Avg Volume: 490.09K
BUY POINT: $12.68 Volume=731K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.72
POSITION: CRA AV - Jan. $12.50c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cra.html

Play Date: 09/20/2003
MTCH (Metron Technology--$5; +0.31; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtch.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume was up Thursday as MTCH move off the 18 day MVA (4.69), approaching the breakout from its 6 week base sporting solid 4 to 0 accumulation. Looks nice.
Volume: 76.535K Avg Volume: 94.545K
BUY POINT: New: $5.08 (orig. $4.78) Volume=127K Target=$5.98 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtch.html

WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:

LEGEND

DATE: date play first appeared on report.

PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);

PIVOT=Buy point

Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.

Vol=Volume for the most recent session.

TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.

Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

^SOXX 09/30 Test 50 461.81 +4.94 446 476 400K 0 447
Target Hit. Came close to the original target and started to reverse so we closed it out.

ABMD 10/06 Test BO 8.5 -0.36 9.12 10.95 75K 175K 8.48
Buy Not Hit.

ACN 09/24 Test 50 22.12 -1.58 22.62 27.15 11M 3.4M 22.12
Current.

ALGN 10/09 DB hdl 15.38 +1.89 14.98 17.48 2.5M 605K 13.78
Current. Kept watching it and Thursday ALGN broke out on a huge
volume surge so we issued a buy alert.

ARIA 09/11 Test BO 6.6 -0.12 5.08 6.28 565K 600K 5.85
Current.

AVO 09/25 Cup hdl 18.65 +0.3 18.48 22.22 155K 1M 17.45
Buy Not Issued.

AVY 10/02 Put 53.81 +0.78 52.04 49 538K 1M 52.88
Buy Not Hit.

BIOI 10/07 A Wedge 7.43 +0.07 8.04 10.05 52K 100K 7.48
Buy Not Hit.

BKHM 09/13 Cup hdl 2.25 -0.05 1.94 2.62 4M 825K 2.15
Current.

BRCM 10/04 Cup hdl 31.43 +1.19 29.91 35.88 13M 20M 27.82
Current.

CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 38.7 +0.72 19.25 23.25 685K 225K 31.58
Current.

CHL 10/04 A Wedge 15.08 +0.57 14.08 16.88 2.4M 730K 13.49
Current.

CRA 10/01 Rv H&S 12.22 +0.11 12.68 15.25 372K 731K 11.72
Buy Not Hit.

CVM 09/29 Cup hdl 1.24 +0.1 1.17 1.56 1.4M 900K 1.01
Current.

CY 09/22 FlyPlat 20.27 +0.83 19.75 23.65 4.7M 3.8M 18.37
Current.

CYMI 10/01 Put 41.17 -0.1 40.94 36.75 1.4M 2.1M 42.38
Buy Not Issued.

DGII 10/08 Test BO 8.08 +0.03 8.28 10.12 152K 167K 7.55
Buy Not Issued.

DGIN 10/04 Put 20.56 +0.46 19.85 17.85 688K 783K 20.85
Buy Not Issued.

DLTR 10/08 Put 35.32 +0.96 33.96 30.92 1.8M 1.8M 35.05
Buy Not Hit.

DRIV 08/25 Cup hdl 32.69 -0.14 25.75 30.25 1.2M 1.7M 28.12
Current.

DRIV 08/06 Test 50 32.69 -0.14 24.18 27.48 1.2M 1.7M 28.12
Current.

EFII 09/15 FlyPlat 25.32 +0.7 24.25 29.15 875K 677K 23.55
Current.

EGOV 10/06 Test BO 4.87 -0.24 5.07 6.35 991K 264K 4.72
Current.

EMBT 10/06 Flat 10.42 -0.35 11.24 13.38 106K 350K 10.14
Current.

EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 10.42 -0.35 9.33 11.12 106K 400K 10.14
Current.

ENDP 09/27 Test BO 22.5 +0.31 21.75 27 664K 1.3M 21.22
Current.

FLSH 09/16 Test 50 19.16 -0.68 16.85 19.75 395K 300K 17.65
Current.

GLDN 08/25 Test BO 29.14 -0.71 30.55 36.55 91K 200K 29.36
Buy Not Issued.

GLDN 08/19 Test BO 29.14 -0.71 30.4 36.48 91K 200K 28.48
Current.

GRIC 09/22 Test BO 8.14 +0.11 8.18 10 879K 872K 7.04
Current.

GRIC 09/17 Flat 8.14 +0.11 7.44 9.25 879K 812K 7.04
Current.

HDTV 08/21 Cup hdl 5.51 +0.24 4.12 5.12 439K 125K 4.65
Current.

HPOL 10/04 Flat 8.25 +0.11 8.65 10.28 400K 668K 7.72
Current.

IFLO 09/22 Test BO 10.27 -0.34 11.06 13.26 96K 375K 10.26
Buy Not Issued.

IFLO 09/09 Flat 10.27 -0.34 9.62 11.52 96K 426K 9.72
Current.

INAP 10/07 Flat 1.4 -0.1 1.51 1.97 4.4M 2.3M 1.31
Current.

INSP 09/06 Rv H&S 24.4 +1.9 18 21.55 1.5M 600K 20.42
Current.

INTV 09/29 Test BO 9.7 +0.11 9.38 11.28 184K 457K 8.68
Buy Not Issued.

IRM 09/10 Put 35.92 -0.3 34.55 32 958K 500K 35.55
Current.

KOMG 09/08 Test BO 19.86 +0.51 16.95 20.45 146K 332K 16.98
Current.

LF 08/20 Cup hdl 44.15 -0.65 35.34 42 838K 845K 39.08
Current.

MER 10/06 Flat 57.7 +0.8 57.62 66.25 4.7M 6.5M 54.98
Buy Not Issued.

MERQ 10/02 Test 50 50 -1.42 49.85 55 3.3M 4.7M 47.55
Current.

MERQ 08/27 Cup hdl 50 -1.42 45.76 53.95 3.3M 4.5M 47.55
Current.

MTCH 09/20 A Wedge 5 +0.31 4.78 5.98 76K 127K 4.35
Buy Not Hit.

MTIC 09/30 Test BO 1.64 +0.05 1.83 2.28 100K 250K 1.58
Buy Not Hit.

NUAN 10/06 Cup hdl 7.25 +0.05 7.08 8.38 363K 309K 6.34
Current.

NUFO 09/29 Cup hdl 4.77 -0.04 4.82 5.95 394K 1.2M 4.48
Current.

OPLK 09/27 Test BO 2.52 -0.06 2.62 3.28 582K 978K 2.38
Current.

OPSW 08/30 DB hdl 7.81 +0.02 7 8.75 617K 1M 7.54
Current.

PANL 10/08 Test BO 12.16 +0.96 11.87 14.25 336K 175K 10.98
Current.

PLT 09/27 Put 25.26 +0.14 23.95 21.65 256K 300K 24.82
Current.

PPHM 09/20 Cup hdl 2.28 +0.08 2.24 2.95 1.4M 2.5M 2.01
Current.

PRSF 09/13 A Wedge 2.28 0 3.16 4.12 1.4M 2.8M 2.77
Current.

PTEK 08/26 Cup hdl 9.8 +0.42 6.74 8.65 3.5M 276K 8.12
Current.

RBK 09/24 DB hdl 35.92 +0.46 34.46 41.35 720K 1.1M 33.22
Buy Not Issued.

RETK 10/06 A Wedge 8.11 -0.01 8.22 9.95 382K 776K 7.64
Buy Not Issued.

RHAT 09/18 Cup hdl 11.03 +0.19 10.03 12.22 2.4M 2.8M 9.88
Current.

RNDC 09/23 Cup hdl 2.81 +0.03 3.23 4.04 262K 559K 2.92
Current.

SCMR 10/04 Test BO 5.2 +0.06 5.12 6.41 2.9M 3.1M 4.76
Buy Not Issued.

TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 62.04 +1.62 61.51 73 896K 501K 57.55
Current.

TGEN 09/22 Flat 2.8 +0.01 3 4.18 473K 1.6M 2.45
Current.

TMWD 10/01 Test 18 6.54 -0.07 6.3 7.98 617K 627K 5.86
Current.

TPTH 09/16 Cup hdl 9.2 +0.08 8.37 10.18 164K 261K 8.52
Current.

TTWO 10/01 Test BO 39.36 -0.23 36.25 43 734K 1.6M 35.85
Current.

TWAV 10/02 Test BO 4.07 +0.37 3.94 5.12 2.1M 600K 3.58
Current.

TZA 07/31 Cup hdl 8.2 +0.25 7.1 8.72 880K 579K 7.28
Current.

UTSI 09/23 Put 36.9 -0.1 34.88 31.78 3.8M 5M 37.18

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock recommendation
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