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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Friday:
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Post-Split:
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$23.03; -0.51; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PSUN split for the second time this hear in early September, and it started to correct heading into the second split. It managed to hold the 50 day MVA (21.24) on the lows (the two legs of the pattern), a very good support level for the pattern to develop. It has been bouncing down from 24 and holding the 10 day MVA (22.60 on the lows. Retail is looking very good and once PSUN finishes working off the hangover from the split we will look for a break higher out of the handle. It may take a few more sessions, but it looks to be getting ready.
Volume: 1.071M Avg Volume: 1.561M
BUY POINT: $24.12 Volume=2.3M Target=$28.94 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: PVQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Upside:
Play Date: 10/11/2003
LNUX (VA Software--$5.29; +0.79; optionable): Marketing & support for IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnux.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. After surging higher on word of strong earnings, LNUX came back to test the 50 day MVA (3.98) to end September, and after a lateral move to start this month, it blasted higher Friday on again above average volume. Strong money flow and relative strength, LNUX has strong momentum we want to take advantage of.
Volume: 6.605M Avg Volume: 2.438M
BUY POINT: $5.35 Volume=300K Target=$6.75 Stop=$4.98
POSITION: UKF BA - Feb. $5c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lnux.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PLAB (Photronics--$23.03; +0.03; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plab.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (21.85). PLAB exploded higher in mid-August, clearing the November 2002 high and powering up to 26 on that move. It has now come back to test the move, holding the breakout at the 50 day. It held, bounced, and then moved laterally the past week on mostly lower volume, but showing good price/volume action (up on up price days, down on down price days). Strong money flow is moving up ahead of the price. Looking for the stock price to follow the money flow.
Volume: 373.049K Avg Volume: 712.612K
BUY POINT: $24.48 Volume=1.1M Target=$29.35 Stop=$22.77
POSITION: PQF LX - Dec. $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plab.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
RMD (Resmed--$46.17; +0.27; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. RMD has trended well this year after breaking out of a trading range in April. It rallied and now ahs formed a double bottom with handle followed by a short, 6 week cup. It broke out of that pattern to start the month, moving the last week in a tight lateral range over the 10 day MVA (45.44). During this last 8 week base the accumulation is a solid 3 to 0 (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow and relative strength. Looking for a break higher from this bullish pattern.
Volume: 61.1K Avg Volume: 161.814K
BUY POINT: $46.82 Volume=215K Target=$53.88 Stop=$44.66
POSITION: RMD AI - Jan. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rmd.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/04/2003
ADPT (Adaptec--$8.6; +0.08; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adpt.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Was making the move Thursday, but reversed to give back most of the gain. Up again Friday, but volume was down. Still a very solid 4.5 month pattern, still looking solid, still looking for that strong break higher again that holds the move.
Volume: 452.872K Avg Volume: 1.025M
BUY POINT: $8.86 Volume=1.6M Target=$10.65 Stop=$8.18
POSITION: APQ AU - Jan. $7.50c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adpt.html
Play Date: 10/09/2003
MBG (Mandalay Resort Group--$39.3; +0.55; optionable): Resorts & Casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbg.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Volume remained strong Friday as MBG tried to continued the bounce. It managed a gain but could not take out the 18 day MVA (39.40). Still looks ready to make the continued bounce on this test that followed the breakout of its 9 month base in June. A typical test of key support in the run, and looking for it to break over the 18 day on continued strong volume to move in.
Volume: 2.993M Avg Volume: 1.275M
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=1.8M Target=$45.38 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: MBG AU - Jan. $37.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbg.html
Play Date: 10/09/2003
PKI (Perkinelmer--$17.19; +0.27; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Friday on continued above average volume, but could not do anything with it, showing a doji. We decided to hold off and see how it reacts Monday, anticipating a test of 17 again and then a move higher. Great looking 6 week base showing strong 3 to 0 accumulation. Strong money flow and relative strength are breakign out with the stock.
Volume: 832.3K Avg Volume: 713.544K
BUY POINT: New: Test 17, then $17.22 on the way back up. Volume=1.1M Target=$20.65 Stop=$16.21
POSITION: PKI AC - Jan. $15c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pki.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: No split announced 10-07-03. Still looking for a possible announcement this week.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: Forecast 10-15-03 after the close.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03 before the market opens with earnings.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
DHR: Forecast 10-16 before the open.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03 after the market closes.
ETN: Forecast 10-14 after the market closes with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting.
GDW: Forecast 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings.
HAR: Announced its split Wednesday, ahead of schedule (forecast 10-29 with earnings). Moving well.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
JBLU: Announced a bit early on us, but no problem as we have been in JBLU for a long time and have racked up a great gain!
JOSB: Forecast 12-1-03 before the market opens.
KMI: Forecast 10-15 after the market closes.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
MERQ: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-23-03 after the close.
ORLY: Forecast 10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: Forecast 10-16-03 after the market closes.
UOPX: No split with earnings on 10-7, but still looking for an announcement this week.
VRTS: Back on. Forecast 10-22-03 after the close.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03 after the close.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$65.72; +0.03; optionable): Education and training. Did not announce last week but still looking for an announcement this week. If not, we look to 12-18-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: APOL has come back to test the 50 day MVA (65.22) after failing to break through 69 on the last attempt. It sold off after earnings, but the volume was steadily declining so the selling was not intense. Friday APOL showed a tight doji on the 50 day, and that can signal a rebound is around the corner.
Volume: 1.084M Avg Volume: 1.742M
BUY POINT: New $66.88 (orig. $65.88) Volume=2M Target=$75.45 Stop=$65.12
POSITION: OAQ Km - Nov. $65c (72 delta) or OAQ BN - Feb. $70c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$66.5; -0.1; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Flat. Nice tight doji on the 10 day MVA (66.35) as AVP continues to work laterally in the handle to a short 6 week cup with handle. Very solid action but the key is to wait for it to make the breakout on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 566K Avg Volume: 943.767K
BUY POINT: New: 67.88 (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$72.61; +0.03; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-15-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Not much change, still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (71.92), forming the handle to its 4.5 month cup with handle base. Quiet trade on low volume, very good base building. Need to see that breakaway move on strong trade. Given the light volume of late it will be easy to see the move.
Volume: 122.2K Avg Volume: 362.446K
BUY POINT: New: $73.05 (orig. $72.63) Volume=563K Target=$83.55 Stop=$70.62
POSITION: BCR AN - Jan. $70c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$57.28; +0.32; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-29-03 in conjunction with earnings or 11-20-03 at its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another education stock testing the 50 day MVA (56.52), COCO fell out of the handle of its short double bottom. If it holds here at the 50 day MVA, a point where a stronger stock should hold, it will still be in solid shape. It can move well, moving in runs of $5 to $10. Would loke to see it start another one. New positions on a volume move over the 10 day MVA (58.13).
Volume: 373.631K Avg Volume: 689.924K
BUY POINT: New: 58.25; then $60.52 (orig. $59.42) Volume=1.1M Target=$69 Stop=$56.42
POSITION: UCS BL - Feb. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 10/07/2003
KMI (Kinder Morgan--$55.2; -0.05; optionable): Gas utilities. Researching a date, but a nice pattern and volume is surging.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3 for 2 on January 4, 1999.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmi.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. KMI is still working over the 10 day MVA (54.85), forming a handle to its 4 month base sporting solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the base. A long, slow pattern, just letting it build up for the breakout.
Volume: 362.8K Avg Volume: 498.332K
BUY POINT: $56.12 Volume=744K Target=$67.35 Stop=$54.48
POSITION: KMI AK - Jan. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmi.html
Play Date: 09/18/2003
ROST (Ross Stores--$52; -0.72; optionable): Apparel stores. Discount apparel. Forecast to announce a split on 11-18-03 during the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $42.32.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ROST blasted higher Thursday, surging on strong volume. Friday it edged back on very low, below average volume, testing the breakout move. Looking for it to hold near 51.50 and then start the move back up.
Volume: 461.497K Avg Volume: 765.022K
BUY POINT: New: Test 51.50, then 52.12 on the way back up (orig. $52.95) Volume=850K Target=$62.55 Stop=$49.92
POSITION: REQ BJ - Feb. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
SYK (Stryker--$76.67; +0.41; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was 4-22-03 no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Flat base. The pattern has turned into something of a shallow saucer with handle, similar to a cup with handle but only shallower. It has come back to test and hold the 10 day MVA (76.34) on low, below. That shows very few sellers as it tests lower, shaking out the last weak holders. Friday SYK started to edge higher off the 10 day, but no volume. Looking and waiting for that strong break higher on volume. Accumulation remains at 2 to 0 in the 10 week pattern.
Volume: 279.5K Avg Volume: 739.423K
BUY POINT: New: $77.65 (orig. $77.12) Volume=1.1M Target=$88.65 Stop=$75.05
POSITION: SYK AO - Jan. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$70.51; -0.49; optionable): No split announced on 10-7-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings, but we could very well see a split in the coming week.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $39.62. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. UOPX announced earnings that were solid, but they came after a strong run and the stock sold back to the 18 day MVA (69.93). Friday it tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and edged up off that level as volume moved back above average. Looks very ready to make the move, and this one can run like a deer when it starts.
Volume: 283.94K Avg Volume: 225.27K
BUY POINT: New: 71.50 Volume=328K Target=$79.88 Stop=$69.22
POSITION: UBL LN - Dec. $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$34.75; -0.47; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. VRTS jumped off the 50 day MVA (32.66) to start the month, rallying to 36 on the Thursday high. It reversed off that level with the rest of the market, tapping the 10 day MVA (34.04) on the low and rebounding to recoup most of the losses. Looking ready for a bounce up from this level but want to see the volume move back in.
Volume: 5.311M Avg Volume: 6.693M
BUY POINT: $35.77 Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.27
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/11/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$67.51; -2.75; optionable): Regional airlines. Splits 3:2 on 11-21-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day. JBLU has made a long, steady rally since breaking out to start the summer, using the 10 and 18 day MVA as support. It has yet to come back toward the 50 day MVA (56.94), though there are those who would like to see it there (downgraded to a sell by one brokerage on Friday). After the downgrade JBLU fell to the 10 day MVA (65.82) on the low and rebounded to recover some of the loss. Stronger stocks overcome downgrades. We expected JBLU to make a further move down toward the 10 day MVA again before it is ready to move back up. The upside trend has increased, always something to watch after a long run higher. Given that it is moving pre-split, however, this pullback is a good entry point if it can overcome the downgrade and rebound on solid trade. May not be another 30 point move like the pre-announcement play, but one that can make us some good money.
Volume: 3.348M Avg Volume: 1.292M
BUY POINT: Test the 10 day MVA at 65.82, then $66.12 on the way back up. Volume=1.9M Target=$76 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: JGQ AN - Jan. $70c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jblu.html
Play Date: 10/07/2003
KRON (Kronos--$56.29; -0.23; no options): Business equipment. Splits 3:2 on 11-3-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Rolling range. After moving up over the 50 day MVA (55) to start the week, KRON faded back, holding over the short term MVA (55.38) on very low volume, showing a nice tight doji. Very good action and we expect it to continue the move up off the 50 day after this little respite. Excellent money flow.
Volume: 64.57K Avg Volume: 151.16K
BUY POINT: New: $56.95 (orig. $56.35) Volume=239K Target=$64.88 Stop=$54.78
POSITION: - Stock (only October options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
PSC (Philadelphia Suburban--$24.84; +0.04; optionable): Water utility. Splits 5:4 on 12-2-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A very nice and low volume test of the breakout, a breakout that was not on that great of volume to begin with. Still a nice little 15 week base, setting up well for a breakout. Would love to see the volume rally on a move over 25 to break it free and clear.
Volume: 88.8K Avg Volume: 200.856K
BUY POINT: New buy point: $25.12 (orig. $24.94) Volume=210K Target=$28.75 Stop=$24.26
POSITION: PSC LX - Dec. $22.50c (99 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psc.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COH (Coach--$29.60; -0.29; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Breakout. COH surged well Thursday on strong, above average volume, but Friday turned back as did most stocks. No major selling, just a step back after a strong surge. COH is in a short reverse head and shoulders pattern, an accumulative pattern that can lead to nice upside gain. In any event, retail is performing well, and COH has set up for another move higher. It may try to test the 10 day MVA (29.04) before making the move, but we will be ready either way.
Volume: 915.6K Avg Volume: 492.647K
BUY POINT: New: $30.12 (orig. $29.75) Volume=1.2M Target=$35 Stop=$27.67
POSITION: COH KL - Nov. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$28.09; -0.08; optionable): Video poker, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. IGT continues to test the 18 day MVA (28.16) after a nice run to 29. A very tight trading range Friday as with the rest of the market and on very low volume to boot. A leader, and now we will see if it can show its strength and rebound from here on strong volume.
Volume: 1.302M Avg Volume: 2.324M
BUY POINT: New: $29.05 Volume=4.7M Target=$34.55 Stop=$27.94
POSITION: IGT AY - Jan. $27.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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