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stock option, stock market report
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: MTIC; PAN;RBK; TZA
Best Plays:
1) ANEN: Starting toward the breakout on strong volume.
2) MANU: Nice breakout test.
3) ABMD: Very nice low volume test of the breakout.
4) CAMD: Another very nice breakout test.
5) ARIA: Very tight range setting up the next move.
6) NUFO: Doji right on the 10 day MVA.
7) UTSI: Rolling over at the 50 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/11/2003
AFOP (Alliance Fiber Optic--$1.8; +0.04; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afop.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AFOP is moving in a 4 week tight, lateral range, holding over the 18 day MVA (1.75) on very low volume. This is actually the handle to a long 23 month base sporting 13 to 11 accumulation (13 up weeks on rising volume to 11 down weeks on rising volume. As AFOP moves laterally and slightly lower volume has trailed off while money flow has continued to rally higher and higher. Really like this very quiet ction on the lazy lateral move, and we expect it will yield a strong break higher.
Volume: 63.135K Avg Volume: 519.781K
BUY POINT: $1.94 Volume=750K Target=$2.55 Stop=$1.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afop.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
ANEN (Anaren--$14.18; +0.49; optionable): Microwave components for wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anen.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. ANEN is showing great action, forming up a nice 5 week triangle, makign higher and higher lows up the 18 day MVA (13.51). It is showing positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the pattern along with strong money flow and relative strength ready to deliver a breakout. Volume started to surge Thursday as it moved off the 18 day and then really jumped Friday as ANEN rose toward the breakout. Again, very good action; we really like the way it looks.
Volume: 250.46K Avg Volume: 94.745K
BUY POINT: $14.42 Volume=142K Target=$17.32 Stop=$13.41
POSITION: EVB AV - Jan. $12.50c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/anen.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
GSIC (GSI Commerce--$12.46; -0.07; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsic.html
STATUS: Double bottom. After a nice surge that started in April, GSIC peaked at 12, up six-fold from the low. It has now moved through a 7 week base to consolidate that move, showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is strong and relative strength is ready for the breakout move as well. A short base but solid.
Volume: 128.709K Avg Volume: 161.08K
BUY POINT: $12.62 Volume=242K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.68
POSITION: UGF AB - Jan. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsic.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
MANU (Manugistics Group--$6.6; +0.21; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manu.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Monday and Tuesday MANU broke out of a 15 week cup with handle base, rallying to 7 on the breakout move. It quickly came back to test, tapping at the 10 day MVA (6.22) on the Thursday and Friday intraday lows. Volume backed off on the test as it should, and Friday MANU actually posted a gain after that lower test. Accumulation is a solid, steady 5 to 3 and relative strength made the breakout with the stock. It may test the 10 day once more, but it looks very solid and on a bounce higher with volume we will move into positions.
Volume: 1.006M Avg Volume: 844.023K
BUY POINT: $6.72 Volume=1.4M Target=$8.06 Stop=$6.21
POSITION: ZUQ AA - Jan. $5c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/manu.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.62; +0.12; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ABMD continues in the nice, quiet and orderly test of its breakout, holding over the 10 day MVA (8.52) on very low volume. This move followas a big breakout in late September from a 4 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in the 4 month base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Still looks solid and we are being patient and waiting for the big move to start.
Volume: 43.8K Avg Volume: 102.637K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 09/11/2003
ARIA (Ariad Pharma--$6.50; -0.10; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aria.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another stock moving laterally after a breakout, ARIA is holding the 10 day MVA (6.45) in a tight range. It remains solid with strong money flow and relative strength. It is consolidating the move higher from 4, setting up the next move Very solid action, and we are looking at this as the next entry point on a higher volume breakout from this range.
Volume: 339.897K Avg Volume: 414.766K
BUY POINT: New: $6.94 (orig. $5.08) Volume=600K Target=New positions: $8.32 (orig. positoins: $6.28) Stop=$6.16
POSITION: UAQ BA - Feb. $5c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aria.html
Play Date: 10/09/2003
CAMD (California Micro Devices--$7.47; -0.02; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/camd.html
STATUS: Pennant. And yet another stock in a nice lateral move following the breakout. CAMD is holding tight over the 10 day MVA (7.38), moving in a very tight range on very low volume. CAMD exploded higher 3 weeks back, blowing out of a 14 month base. A very strong breakout and we now look for the move to resume on strong volume.
Volume: 62.96K Avg Volume: 270.817K
BUY POINT: $7.85 Volume=500K Target=$9.48 Stop=$7.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/camd.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
CRA (Applera--$11.99; -0.23; optionable): Scientific and technical
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still holding over the 18 day MVA (11.84) as CRA puts the finishing touches on the right shoulder to its 17 week base. Outstanding 7 to 2 accumulation with surging money flow. Ready for the volume break higher.
Volume: 233.5K Avg Volume: 481.811K
BUY POINT: $12.68 Volume=731K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.72
POSITION: CRA AV - Jan. $12.50c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cra.html
Play Date: 08/27/2003
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$50.29; +0.29; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Testign the 18 day MVA. MERQ is making a higher low over the 18 day MVA (48.83), testing that level on lower, below average volume. Strong money flow and solid relative strength as MERQ holds up very well. We want to see it make the break over the recent highs at 52, but MERQ is doing what the overall market should do: lower volume test of the near support, make a higher low, then blast higher.
Volume: 1.595M Avg Volume: 3.176M
BUY POINT: New: 52.12 (orig. $45.76) Volume=4.5M Target=New positions: $59.845 (orig. positions $53.95) Stop=$48.78
POSITION: RQB AJ - Jan. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/merq.html
Play Date: 09/29/2003
NUFO (New Focus--$4.77; 0; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nufo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. NUFO broke out of its 11 week base in late September and early October, and is now testing that move on very, very low below average volume. Friday NUFO tapped the 10 day MVA (4.72) on the low, showing a nice tight doji sitting right on that support. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Ready for the next move.
Volume: 222.773K Avg Volume: 799.606K
BUY POINT: $4.82 Volume=1.2M Target=$5.95 Stop=$4.63
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nufo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/02/2003
AVY (Avery Dennison--$52.77; -1.04; optionable): Paper & paper products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avy.html
STATUS: Put. AVY has rallied up to the down trendline that started in November. Wednesday it gappe dhigher but solid off, tried another move on Thursday but volume was not there, and then fell to the 10 day MVA (52.50) Friday on continued low volume. It did not roll over and die, but it failed at the trendline, the first step to the next leg down in the downtrend. Want to see ti break through the 18 day MVA (52.38) on stronger volume as the signal the next leg lower is starting.
Volume: 389.7K Avg Volume: 600.341K
BUY POINT: $52.04 Volume=1M Target=$49 Stop=$52.88
POSITION: AVY WK - Nov. $55p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avy.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$34.75; -0.57; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Put. Retail is doing fine, but not all retailers are sharing in the good fortune. DLTR sold hard Wednesday on high volume, tried to rebound Thursday with the market, but did not have enough gas. Friday it turned back down again, unable to break back over the 50 day MVA (35.36). Looks reayd to head lower but want to see more volume and want it below some support at 34 when it does make that higher volume sell lower.
Volume: 1.025M Avg Volume: 1.554M
BUY POINT: $33.96 Volume=1.8M Target=$30.92 Stop=$35.05
POSITION: DQO WG - Nov. $35p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dltr.html
Play Date: 09/23/2003
UTSI (Utstarcom--$35.84; -1.06; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utsi.html
STATUS: Put. Wile most telecom is holding up UTSI is in trouble. It peaked in July and August and tumbled in September. It has manage a rebound move the past two weeks, but volume has been lower overall. Last week it rallied back to the 50 day MVA (37.16), but after gapping over that level Thursday, it reversed and sold lower. Frida
It was movign lower again on rising, average volume. It managed to hold the 18 day MVA (35.88) on the close, but it looks ready to make the next leg down with plunging money flow and distribution.
Volume: 4.425M Avg Volume: 4.204M
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=5M Target=$31.78 Stop=$37.18
POSITION: UON WG - Nov. $35p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utsi.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock option
stock market report
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