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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Monday: ANEN; BKHM; CVM; KOMG; LF; MER; NUFO; PANL; RETK; TARO; TMWD; TWAV; RHAT
Best Plays:
1) ANAD: Breaking out on a strong volume surge.
2) GERN: Nice tight lateral move over the 10 day MVA.
3) OBAS: Breaking higher on strong volume.
4) ABMD: Nice lateral move on low volume.
5) CAMD: Another lateral move on low volume over the 10 day MVA.
6) BKHM: Volume rallying on a strong move off the 18 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/13/2003
ANAD (Anadigics--$5.94; +0.79; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anad.html
STATUS: Breakout. ANAD has made us money in the past, and after a nice, tight 7 week lateral move over the 18 day MVA (5.09) it broke over resistance in the flat base Monday on very strong volume. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout accompany the move. Still very early in the move and looking to pick up positions here.
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 459.136K
BUY POINT: $6.06 Volume=689K Target=$8 Stop=$5.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/anad.html
Play Date: 10/13/2003
AMHC (American Healthways--$45.18; +1.59; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making the breakout from its 13 week base showing excellent 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Got a bith choppy to start last week, and a quick test toward the 50 day MVA (38.74) allowed it to catch its breath, shake out the sellers, and set the stage to move higher. Looking solid as it starts the move, we want to see another good volume day as it moves further. It has already had some good upside volume, however, so we will keep that in mind if it makes the further move on solid though not blowout trade.
Volume: 624.058K Avg Volume: 337.545K
BUY POINT: $45.88 Volume=450K Target=$52.75 Stop=$42.67
POSITION: QMH BI - Feb. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amhc.html
Play Date: 10/13/2003
GERN (Geron--$14.41; +0.71; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gern.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. GERN has formed a three week triangle over the 10 day MVA (13.56) as it moves below 14.75, making higher and higher lows as it builds pressure for the breakout. This move is a consolidation of the breakout from a 15 week flat base along the 50 day MVA (now at 9.68). Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move to go with positive accumulation. It has moved laterally on very low volume this month and we are looking for a high volume breakout over the recent highs to move in.
Volume: 1.761M Avg Volume: 1.902M
BUY POINT: $14.88 Volume=2.9M Target=$17.88 Stop=$13.48
POSITION: GQD LC - Dec. $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gern.html
Play Date: 10/13/2003
OBAS (Optibase--$7.35; +0.84; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/obas.html
STATUS: Double bottom. OBAS is making the breakout from a short, 6 week base. It dipped a bit lower on the second leg, undercutting the first as it should to really scare out the sellers. It also used the 50 day MVA (5.78) as support for the second leg, a good sign of support. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the base with surging money flow. Monday OBAS started the breakout on a huge volume spike and a relative strength breakout. Looks ready to make the move.
Volume: 673.578K Avg Volume: 119.227K
BUY POINT: $7.48 Volume=179K Target=$9.35 Stop=$6.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/obas.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.84; +0.22; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continugin the quiet lateral move over the 10 day MVA (8.58) that is testing the breakout from a 4 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Nice consolidation on low volume and just waiting for the strong break higher.
Volume: 36.021K Avg Volume: 103.59K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
AFOP (Alliance Fiber Optic--$1.77; -0.02; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afop.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another day in the 4 week tight, lateral range, holding over the 18 day MVA (1.75) on very low volume. This is the handle to a 23 month base sporting 13 to 11 accumulation (13 up weeks on rising volume to 11 down weeks on rising volume. Just waiting for the breakout mov eon volume.
Volume: 96.2K Avg Volume: 497.545K
BUY POINT: $1.94 Volume=750K Target=$2.55 Stop=$1.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afop.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
ANEN (Anaren--$15.84; +1.66; optionable): Microwave components for wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anen.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Exploded higher on huge volume. Nice.
Volume: 385.526K Avg Volume: 93.318K
BUY POINT: No new positions at this time. $14.88 Volume=142K Target=$17.78 Stop=$13.8
POSITION: EVB AV - Jan. $12.50c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/anen.html
Play Date: 09/13/2003
BKHM (Bookham Technology--$2.44; +0.18; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkhm.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After breaking higher in mid-September it has been a choppy lateral move for BKHM, holding over the 18 day MVA (2.21) and making a series of higher lows below 2.50. After a nice drift back to the 18 day on Friday, BKHM was up sharply Monday on a strong volume surge. Looking for more positions on a move over 2.50.
Volume: 4.362M Avg Volume: 1.327M
BUY POINT: New: 2.55 (orig $1.94) Volume=3M Target=$2.25 (orig. positions) $2.62 Stop=$2.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bkhm.html
Play Date: 10/09/2003
CAMD (California Micro Devices--$7.62; +0.14; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/camd.html
STATUS: Pennant. Volume started to edge higher as CAMD moved up off the 10 day MVA (7.42) Monday, but it was still well below average and CAMD is still below the buy point. Very nice pattern, however. CAMD exploded higher 3 weeks back, blowing out of a 14 month base. Now just waiting for a volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 141.69K Avg Volume: 269.272K
BUY POINT: $7.85 Volume=500K Target=$9.48 Stop=$7.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/camd.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
CRA (Applera--$12.16; +0.17; optionable): Scientific and technical
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still hugging the 10 and 18 day MVA (12.04, 11.87) as it completes the right shoulder to the 17 week base. Outstanding 7 to 2 accumulation with surging money flow. Just waiting for the break higher.
Volume: 287.8K Avg Volume: 478.454K
BUY POINT: $12.68 Volume=731K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.72
POSITION: CRA AV - Jan. $12.50c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cra.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
DGII (Digi Intl.--$8.07; +0.27; no options): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgii.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Broke from a 2.5 month reverse head and shoulders to start the month, gapping over 7.50 on a big volume surge. It moved laterally over 8 on low volume, but dipped to the 10 day MVA (10.77) Friday on low volume only to rebound Monday on a good volume surge. Looks like a classic shakeout and how it is ready to move back up and continue the breakout.
Volume: 84.081K Avg Volume: 106.181K
BUY POINT: $8.28 Volume=167K Target=$10.12 Stop=$7.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dgii.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$8.04; +0.04; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Test breakout. HPOL surged higher on volume to start the month, but then ran out of gas 8.75 and has come back to test the move, tapping the 18 day MVA (7.79) on the Friday low and showing a very tight doji Monday at that level. This test is holding right over the left side of the 8 week base and looks ready to make the move back up.
Volume: 165.86K Avg Volume: 433.181K
BUY POINT: $8.65 Volume=668K Target=$10.28 Stop=$7.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hpol.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
MANU (Manugistics Group--$6.46; -0.14; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manu.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the next move, but was not ready as MANU ran up to 6.89 and then reversed to close slightly lower on rising, above average volume. Monday and Tuesday MANU broke out of a 15 week cup with handle base, rallying to 7 on the breakout move but made a quick return to the 10 day MVA (6.27). Accumulation is a solid, steady 5 to 3 and relative strength made the breakout with the stock. Looks as if it will make the test the 10 day again and then make its move.
Volume: 1.486M Avg Volume: 844.636K
BUY POINT: $6.72 Volume=1.4M Target=$8.06 Stop=$6.21
POSITION: ZUQ AA - Jan. $5c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/manu.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/04/2003
DGIN (Digital Insight--$19.64; -0.75; optionable): Consumer services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgin.html
STATUS: Put. After a test of the 18 day MVA (20.73) on Friday, DGIN rolled over Monday on anogher volume spike. This looks like the breakdown we were looking for as the distribution continues (higher volume dumping) along with diving money flow. Issued the alert Monday, but still a buy from here.
Volume: 716.806K Avg Volume: 517.954K
BUY POINT: $19.48 Volume=783K Target=$17.55 Stop=$20.85
POSITION: UGU WD - Nov. $20p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dgin.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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