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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: ET; ERES; COH; IFIN; KMI; NSM; SIGA; TARO; TSCO; URBN; ARO
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 10/14/2003
EASI (Engineered Support--$65.35; +1.45; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Splits 3:2 on 11-3-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After a big breakout in late August, EASI has moved mor eor less laterally below 65, moving up the 18 day MVA (62.36) as it makes a series of higher lows. That builds pressure from below for what are often explosive breakouts. Tuesday volume moved up just above average as EASI moved off the 10 day MVA (63.32). Strong money flow and relative strength moving toward the breakout, a good confirmation of the move if it makes the breakout as well.
Volume: 230.988K Avg Volume: 191.5K
BUY POINT: $65.54 Volume=287K Target=$75 Stop=$62.94
POSITION: UFE BM - Feb. 65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/easi.html
Play Date: 10/14/2003
GGP (General Growth Properties--$74.50; 0.31; optionable): Retail REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggp.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. GGP has been in a solid uptrend since a breakout in February. It came back to test just over the 50 day MVA (70.19) in late September and rallied sharply to start this month. It has moved laterally the past two weeks consolidating that move, holding over 74 and the 10 day MVA (73.81). Solid price/volume action in the lateral move (rising on up volume, falling on down volume). Volume was up Tuesday as GGP moved off the 10 day. Looking for an above average volume break over the recent highs.
Volume: 191.3K Avg Volume: 221K
BUY POINT: $75.08 Volume=275K Target=$86.25 Stop=$73.25
POSITION: GGP AO - Jan. $75c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ggp.html
Play Date: 10/14/2003
USNA (Usana Health Science--$54.74; -3.45; no options): Drug products. Splits 2:1 on 10-31-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usna.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. USNA formed a nice 4 month w/handle base with positive 4 to 3 accumulation. USNA has made two breakout attempts, one I late September, and one on Monday. Volume was strong on both, but Tuesday after another gap higher USNA fell back below some support at 55. Volume was lower, so we are looking for a test of the 10 day MVA (53.33) and then another move back up on volume as this has been one of the stronger performers of late.
Volume: 331.241K Avg Volume: 209.272K
BUY POINT: $55.58 Volume=314K Target=$63.94 Stop=$52.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usna.html
Upside:
Play Date: 10/14/2003
NEXM (Nexmed--$4.67; 0; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nexm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NEXM is in the process of forming a nice, low volume handle or shakeout to its 4 month base. This is the point where the last sellers get frustrated and sell out as the stock fades back from the former high. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 5 to 1 (5 up weeks on risign volume to 1 down week on rising volume) with strong money flow and relative strength. Good action in the handle with the lows tapping or otherwise holding over the 10 day MVA (4.49). This is one of those stocks that has formed up a nice base as the market rallied. If other stocks fall back this more defensive stock looks ready to make the move.
Volume: 127.9K Avg Volume: 194.681K
BUY POINT: $5.03 Volume=292K Target=$6.28 Stop=$4.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nexm.html
Play Date: 10/14/2003
ORBK (Orbotech--$22.5; +0.15; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. ORBK has set up this 5 week pattern that follows the early September breakout from an 11 week flat base. Accumulation in the current pattern is a solid 3 to 1 (3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). Volume has been spiking on up sessions, doing so Tuesday and before that on Thursday. Strong money flow and relative strength is ready for another breakout.
Volume: 233.442K Avg Volume: 95.09K
BUY POINT: $22.78 Volume=200K Target=$27.38 Stop=$21.65
POSITION: OKQ AX - Jan. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orbk.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PLAB (Photronics--$23; -0.3; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plab.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (21.95). Still trying to make the bigger move up off the 50 day, PLAB is working laterally below 24 and over the 10 day MVA (22.80). Strong money flow is moving up ahead of the price. Looking for the stock price to follow the money flow, but want to see storng trade. Intel's numbers might help as INTC said it was going to spend more money on equipment and R&D..
Volume: 487.691K Avg Volume: 698.227K
BUY POINT: $24.48 Volume=1.1M Target=$29.35 Stop=$22.77
POSITION: PQF LX - Dec. $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plab.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
TSYS (Telecomunications Sys.--$4.42; 0; no options): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsys.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. After a strong breakout in early September TSYS has moved laterally more or less, twice failing to get over 4.75. On this last pullback form that level it has held the 18 day MVA (4.30) on the intraday lows and has rebounded each session. Trying to make a higher low here to send it on the next leg.
Volume: 78.916K Avg Volume: 155.636K
BUY POINT: New: 4.78 (orig. $3.54) Volume=120K Target=New: $5.75 (orig. $4.45) Stop=$4.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsys.html
Play Date: 09/25/2003
VSV (Vasogen--$5.90; 0.00; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working over the 18 day MVA (5.71) as it tests the explosive breakout from its 4 month cup base. Super accumulation and money flow as it works laterally on very, very low volume. This usually presages the next break higher.
Volume: 23.8K Avg Volume: 105.681K
BUY POINT: $6.12 Volume=300K Target=$8 Stop=$5.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsv.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: No split announced 10-07-03. Still looking for a possible announcement this week.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: Forecast 10-15-03 after the close.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03 before the market opens with earnings.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03 after the market closes.
ETN: Forecast 10-14 after the market closes with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting.
GDW: Forecast 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
JOSB: Forecast 12-1-03 before the market opens.
KMI: Forecast 10-15 after the market closes.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
MERQ: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-23-03 after the close.
ORLY: Forecast 10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: Forecast 10-16-03 after the market closes.
UOPX: No split with earnings on 10-7, but still looking for an announcement this week.
VRTS: Back on. Forecast 10-22-03 after the close.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03 after the close.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/13/2003
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$34.1; -0.32; optionable): Restaurants.
BACKGROUND: Last split in June 2002 at a price of $38.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Flat. APPB is still working on the breakout from a 3.5 month flat base sporting excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Monday it makde the attempt, but volume was not that strong and Tuesday APPB did not participate, edging back on lower, below average volume. Still a very solid pattern, and we are looking for another break higher, this time on volume.
Volume: 321.255K Avg Volume: 505.818K
BUY POINT: $34.62 Volume=750K Target=$41.55 Stop=$32.78
POSITION: AQB BG - Feb. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$67.05; +0.65; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Flat. AVP continues to work laterally in the nice consolidation over the 18 day MVA (66.48), working on low, below average volume. A nice consolidation after the solid jump off the 50 day to start the month. Waiting for the volume to kick up with the move and that will be the next entry point.
Volume: 545.2K Avg Volume: 928.818K
BUY POINT: New: 67.88 (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$73.29; +0.5; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-15-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split around 1-22-00 at a stock price of $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Now it is getting interesting with volume jumping back up to average Tuesday as BCR started to move higher. We were tempted to enter, but want to see another good move to enter. Pretty good action in the 4.5 month cup with handle base, but want to see more volume.
Volume: 324.8K Avg Volume: 354.772K
BUY POINT: New: $73.55 (orig. $72.63) Volume=563K Target=$83.55 Stop=$70.62
POSITION: BCR AN - Jan. $70c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
JAH (Jarden--$37.43; +0.93; no options): Rubber & plastics. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 2 for1 split on 5-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $37.10. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a big breakout from its 4 month cup with handle base JAH made a great pullback to the short term MVA, but then fell below that level for a quick test of the 50 day MVA (34.61). It immediately reversed and moved back up over the 18 day MVA (36.77). Back in the pattern and working higher on some decent volume. Money flow is surging. Looks like a good shakeout and now it is ready to move higher.
Volume: 199.7K Avg Volume: 189.954K
BUY POINT: $38.05 Volume=270K Target=$45.5 Stop=$36.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 10/02/2003
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$50.6; -0.29; optionable): Technical software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $87. It has announced prior to that in the $45 to $50 range, so it is in the game. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company had sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Testing the break. MERQ is working laterally over near support at 50 (10 day MVA at 49.89), moving on low volume. Software has been one of the better tech areas, and this lateral move may give us another entry point ahead of earnings. We want to see volume spike again on the next move.
Volume: 1.628M Avg Volume: 3.13M
BUY POINT: New: $52.22 (orig. $49.85) Volume=4.7M Target=New positions: $61 (orig. positions: $55) Stop=$47.55
POSITION: RQB AI - Jan. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/merq.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
SYK (Stryker--$77.65; +1; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was 4-22-03 no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume is starting to edge back up as SYK again tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (76.48) and rebounded for a nice gain. Volume was up but still below average. It is forming up very well and we just need to see some strong volume on the breakout. Accumulation remains at 2 to 0 in the 10 week pattern.
Volume: 547.7K Avg Volume: 736.954K
BUY POINT: New: $77.88 (orig. $77.12) Volume=1.1M Target=$88.65 Stop=$75.05
POSITION: SYK AO - Jan. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$35.38; -0.44; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. VRTS rallied up to the top of the base at 36 and has stalled out some. It has shown solid volume on the moves up to that level, and has backed off on lower volume. Still, it needs to make the breakout over 36 on some serious volume.
Volume: 5.909M Avg Volume: 6.511M
BUY POINT: New: $36.25 (orig. $35.77) Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.27
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/11/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$67.49; -0.4; optionable): Regional airlines. Splits 3:2 on 11-21-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day. JBLU continues to work over the 10 day MVA (66.43) on lower volume, holding up rather well after that downgrade to sell. The lower volume indicates no real selling after that first day. Strong stocks will recover from these downgrades. Showing a tight doji over the 10 day. A sell rating when it is making a lot of money should not stall it, but we want to see it rallying back up on stronger trade. It has not made a full test of the 10 day MVA, and it may not do it.
Volume: 1.296M Avg Volume: 1.31M
BUY POINT: From here: $68.12. Test of 10 day: $66.88 on the way back up. Volume=1.9M Target=$76 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: JGQ AN - Jan. $70c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jblu.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
PSC (Philadelphia Suburban--$24.89; +0.04; optionable): Water utility. Splits 5:4 on 12-2-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still waiting on PSC as it continues to move laterally over the 10 day MVA (24.75), forming a very nice lateral test of the breakout. Volume started to edge back up Tuesday though was still well below average. Want to see it average or better on the move through 25.
Volume: 134.7K Avg Volume: 199.181K
BUY POINT: New buy point: $25.12 (orig. $24.94) Volume=210K Target=$28.75 Stop=$24.26
POSITION: PSC LX - Dec. $22.50c (99 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psc.html
POST-SPLIT
COH shot higher on some solid trade.
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$23.97; +0.07; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up Tuesday as PSUN tested the breakout water but then faded back on the close. Still a solid pattern, but need to see the volume on the move. It is getting there.
Volume: 1.665M Avg Volume: 1.906M
BUY POINT: $24.12 Volume=2.3M Target=$28.94 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: PVQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$56.2; +0.4; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA (55.73). After the breakout in late August ZMH has marched up the 10 day MVA. It is now testing the 18 day. Want to see it hold that level and then rally back on strong volume. This has been a market leader and if the volume comes in it will be a good entry point.
Volume: 1.424M Avg Volume: 1.896M
BUY POINT: New: $56.68 (orig. $51.12) Volume=3M Target=New positions: $65 (orig positions: $59.55) Stop=$55.55
POSITION: ZMH LK - Dec. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zmh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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