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stock share, stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Wednesday: ANAD; FLSH; ORBK
Best Plays:
1) CYBS: Moving to a breakout on strong volume.
2) NANX: Nice volume move toward a breakout.
3) NXG: A new issue ready to break from its first base.
4) ABMD: Ready to continue the breakout move.
5) AFOP: Volume is edging up as it moves toward the breakout.
6) HPOL: Very nice breakout test over the 10 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/15/2003
CYBS (Cybersource--$4.57; +0.23; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cybs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CYBS is making the breakout move from a short 5 week base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). This indicates that the big money is buying the stock as opposed to unloading it. Volume was surging Wednesday as it broke out of the week long handle that formed over the 10 day MVA (4.24). Money flow is still moving higher ahead of price and relative strength broke out on the move. Very solid. Software has been very solid.
Volume: 475.177K Avg Volume: 132.727K
BUY POINT: $4.68 Volume=200K Target=$5.85 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cybs.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
NANX (Nanophase Technologies--$7.75; +0.55; optionable): Mining: industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nanx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Basic metals are performing well, another indication of improving world (not just US) economies. During the 4 week lateral move over the 18 day MVA (7.03) the stock has been under accumulation with 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. That shows the bigger money is moving into the stock and buying it as opposed to selling it. Money flow is rallying higher ahead of price and relative strength is poised for the breakout. Wednesday volume surged to well above average as NANX jumped off the 18 day. It closed well off the intraday high (8.20) but held on to the lion's share of the gain. Still looks ready to go.
Volume: 332.473K Avg Volume: 107.727K
BUY POINT: $7.88 Volume=200K Target=$9.45 Stop=$7.2
POSITION: NSY CU - Mar. $7.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nanx.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
NXG (Northgate Exploration--$1.79; +0.02; no options): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxg.html
STATUS: Cup. Another mining stock looking solid. NXG was a new issued in July and promptly ralllied up to 1.80 in early September before forming the current 4 week base, its first base since coming public. We really like to pick up initial offerings after their first base as that gets rid of the early profit takers and sets the stage for stronger and longer moves. Volume surged Tuesday and Wednesday as it rallied toward the breakout. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 1.289M Avg Volume: 456.045K
BUY POINT: $1.84 Volume=684K Target=$2.45 Stop=$1.71
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nxg.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
PRGS (Progress Software--$23.27; -0.41; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PRGS is working on the handle to its 4 month base sporting excellent 6 to 2 accumulation. The handle is the low volume, lateral move near the high on the left side of the base where it starts slighly lower and the last weak holders are shaken or frustrated out of the stock, fearing it is going to fall again. When they are gone that overhead supply is gone and it is free to move higher. We look for a strong volume breakout as the signal the sellers are gone and the big money is again moving in.
Volume: 72.331K Avg Volume: 191.636K
BUY POINT: $23.95 Volume=287K Target=$28.75 Stop=$22.71
POSITION: RGQ CX - Mar. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prgs.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.9; +0.04; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Volume has started to edge higher as ABMD shows signs of trying to continue the breakout from its 4 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). After moving laterally to end September, it looks ready to continue the move higher.
Volume: 63.305K Avg Volume: 104.454K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
AFOP (Alliance Fiber Optic--$1.84; +0.03; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afop.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Jumped up in its 4 week handle. Volume was up, but still well below average. It again tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (1.76) and rallied back. Still looks solid in its 23 month base sporting 13 to 11 accumulation (13 up weeks on rising volume to 11 down weeks on rising volume). Just waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 295.3K Avg Volume: 446.409K
BUY POINT: $1.94 Volume=750K Target=$2.55 Stop=$1.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afop.html
Play Date: 10/13/2003
GERN (Geron--$14.8; -1.35; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gern.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Exploded from the short 3 week base on Tuesday, but then struggled Wednesday, gapping lower. Volume was down, so we are looking for the stock to hold over the 10 day MVA (14.17) and start back up. It needs to do it quickly, however, to indicate the Wednesday action was an aberration. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move to go with positive accumulation.
Volume: 4.344M Avg Volume: 1.983M
BUY POINT: $14.88 Volume=2.9M Target=$17.88 Stop=$13.48
POSITION: GQD LC - Dec. $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gern.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
GSIC (GSI Commerce--$12.5; -0.21; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsic.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. GSIC continues to work on a handle to its 7 week base. Tuesday volume shot higher on no real news (earnings call scheduled for 10-29). The stock just edged lower, however. Still solid in the base, and waiting for a breakout move that holds toward the close.
Volume: 640.453K Avg Volume: 157.181K
BUY POINT: $12.62 Volume=242K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.68
POSITION: UGF AB - Jan. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsic.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$8.2; 0; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (8.05) on very low volume in a very nice consolidation of the breakout. Excellent money flow and accumulation. Just waiting for the move higher on some above average volume.
Volume: 205.003K Avg Volume: 421.636K
BUY POINT: $8.65 Volume=668K Target=$10.28 Stop=$7.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hpol.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
MANU (Manugistics Group--$6.57; -0.18; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manu.html
STATUS: Breakout test. MANU continues to move laterally in a narrow range, holding over the 10 day MVA (6.39) on the lows and 7 on the highs. Still working on consolidating the breakout from its 15 week cup with handle base showing steady 5 to 3 accumulation. Being patient and letting it make a volume move that holds toward the close.
Volume: 951.647K Avg Volume: 871.681K
BUY POINT: $6.72 Volume=1.4M Target=$8.06 Stop=$6.21
POSITION: ZUQ AA - Jan. $5c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/manu.html
Play Date: 10/09/2003
MBG (Mandalay Resort Group--$39.75; -0.15; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbg.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. MBG fell to the 50 day MVA (38.31) last week and started a nice, high volume bounce. This week volume fell back below average as it started to move laterally over the 10 day MVA (39.54). Just being patient and letting it make a strong break higher with above average volume to show that the move is back on. A 50 day MVA test can be a great entry point for leading stocks such as MBG.
Volume: 1.217M Avg Volume: 1.232M
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=1.8M Target=$45.38 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: MBG AU - Jan. $37.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mbg.html
Play Date: 10/13/2003
OBAS (Optibase--$7.2; -0.22; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/obas.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Quickly reversed the breakout move from the short 6 week base. It did manage to hold over support at 7 and volume was lower as it dipped back. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the base with surging money flow. Still a solid pattern, but it has to hold near 7 and quickly make the move back up.
Volume: 239.763K Avg Volume: 132K
BUY POINT: $7.48 Volume=179K Target=$9.35 Stop=$6.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/obas.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/04/2003
DGIN (Digital Insight--$19.5; 0; optionable): Consumer services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgin.html
STATUS: Put. Still holding below the 10 day MVA (20.03), managing to hold above 19.30 on the lows. The stock is still under distribution and money flow is still diving. Want to see it duck below 19.30 on a big volume spike to set it in motion.
Volume: 428.33K Avg Volume: 524.863K
BUY POINT: New: $19.28 (orig. $19.48) Volume=783K Target=$17.55 Stop=$20.85
POSITION: UGU WD - Nov. $20p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dgin.html
Play Date: 09/23/2003
UTSI (Utstarcom--$35.86; -0.37; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utsi.html
STATUS: Put. There is some support at 35 where some buyers keep coming in to hold the stock up. It has been moving laterally the past four sessions over that level on very low volume, but money flow is still falling hard. Looking for a high volume break through 35 to enter.
Volume: 1.751M Avg Volume: 4.105M
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=5M Target=$31.78 Stop=$37.18
POSITION: UON WG - Nov. $35p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utsi.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock share
stock pick
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