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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Thursday: CAN; ADIC; CELL; NXG; SEAC; SINA; TSYS
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/16/2003
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$15.5; +0.24; no options): Taiwan telecom services provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CHT was a new issued in July. It immediately fell into the current 12 week base sporting excellent 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume verssu 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Monday CHT gapped up after a strong volume rise this month and has since formed the handle. Thursday it was making the breakout on rising, above average volume. Excellent money flow and looking to get in on this breakout move.
Volume: 1.189M Avg Volume: 768K
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cht.html
Play Date: 10/16/2003
JADE (LJ Intl.--$4.64; +0.11; no options): Jewelry design, branding & manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jade.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. JADE surged higher in July then fell into the current 12 week base that has used the 50 day MVA (3.94) as the bottom. Accumulation is an excellent 4 to 0, money flow is surging, and relative strength is ready for a breakout. After rallying to 5 JADE has pulled back to the 18 day MVA (4.31), tapping that level on the intraday low and then rebounding to close. Volume surged heading into this week and has backed off on the 18 day MVA test. It is set up now for the breakout and we are just waiting for the stock to make the breakout.
Volume: 113.54K Avg Volume: 154.636K
BUY POINT: $5.04 Volume=235K Target=$6.32 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jade.html
Play Date: 10/16/2003
TIWI (Telesystem Intl. Wireless--$5.42; +0.34; no options): Foreign wireless (Romania, India, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tiwi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TIWI has formed a short 5 week cup with handle base, a bit short but looking nice with 2 to 1 accumulation. It held the 50 day MVA (4.46) at the bottom of the base, using that as support. After rallying up over 5, it has moved laterally the past week on much lower volume. This is the move that shakes out the last sellers as they get frustrated as the stock pulls back. Thursday TIWI shot higher on a big shot of above average volume. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looking to enter on a move over the September high.
Volume: 958.255K Avg Volume: 205.409K
BUY POINT: $5.52 Volume=350K Target=$6.94 Stop=$5.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tiwi.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 09/27/2003
KFX (KFX, Inc.--$5.81; +0.01; no options): Clean energy technologies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kfx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. KFX blasted higher to start the month, rallying to over 6. It has made a nice, orderly test of the move, holding over the 10 day MVA (5.75) while trading in a tight range. An excellent breakout and nice test. Looking for a high volume move here to enter additional or new positions.
Volume: 165.4K Avg Volume: 121.909K
BUY POINT: New: $5.95 (orig. $5.24) Volume=137K Target=$6.62 Stop=$5.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kfx.html
Play Date: 10/14/2003
NEXM (Nexmed--$4.91; +0.38; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nexm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The stock jumped as did volume Thursday as NEXM starts the breakout move from its 4 month base. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 5 to 1 (5 up weeks on risign volume to 1 down week on rising volume) with strong money flow and relative strength. A strong move, and we are now looking for the breakout on even better trade.
Volume: 303.888K Avg Volume: 192.318K
BUY POINT: $5.03 Volume=292K Target=$6.28 Stop=$4.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nexm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: No split announced 10-07-03.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: Forecast 10-15-03 after the close. No split but huge earnings and the stock shot higher.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03 before the market opens with earnings.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03 after the market closes.
ETN: Forecast 10-14 after the market closes with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting. No split with earnings but great results shot it higher.
GDW: Forecast 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
JOSB: Forecast 12-1-03 before the market opens.
KMI: Forecast 10-15 after the market closes. No split and after gapping higher Wednesday it reversed and is now testing the strong break higher.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
MERQ: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-23-03 after the close.
ORLY: Forecast 10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: Forecast 10-16-03 after the market closes. Beat the street by a penny after the close.
UOPX: No split with earnings on 10-7.
VRTS: Back on. Forecast 10-22-03 after the close.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03 after the close.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/13/2003
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$34.7; +0.86; optionable): Restaurants. Still researching the next split.
BACKGROUND: Last split in June 2002 at a price of $38.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Flat. A very nice break higher Thursday, but volume was not there. Volume has faded back the past week and has been relatively low in the run off of the 50 day MVA this month. Need to see some more volume and is still in the buy zone if it comes in. Still a nice 3.5 month flat base sporting excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 321.255K Avg Volume: 505.818K
BUY POINT: $34.88 (orig. $34.62) Volume=750K Target=$41.55 Stop=$32.78
POSITION: AQB BG - Feb. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$67.8; +0.36; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Flat. Starting to try the breakout from the lateral move over the 10 day MVA (66.86) but not getting the volume it needs. To make a convincing move. Still solid, but want to see the break on rising volume.
Volume: 672.3K Avg Volume: 912.909K
BUY POINT: New: 67.88 (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$57.21; -0.21; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 at stock price of $21.84. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice pullback to the 10 day MVA (56.87), testing the breakout earlier in the month and showing a nice doji at that level. Volume was up as the stock tested back, and we are looking for an above average volume jump from here for new positions.
Volume: 161.836K Avg Volume: 212.59K
BUY POINT: New: $58.65 (orig. $54.12) Volume=475K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.72
POSITION: TQQ AK - Jan. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$39.03; +0.19; optionable): Retail auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-03 in conjunction with earnings or on 11-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events. BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a big break upside from the 50 day MVA (37.83) to start the month, ORLY hit 40 and then started an orderly pullback to the 18 day MVA (38.84), coming back in a nice, narrow range. Looking for it to hold this level and start the rebound on a strong shot of average or better volume.
Volume: 76.942K Avg Volume: 348.59K
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=350K Target=$47.05 Stop=$38.68
POSITION: OQR BH - Feb. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$68.34; +0.52; optionable): Education and training. No announcement with earnings on 10-7-03.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. After peaking at 75 early in the month, UOPX has come on some troubled times, coming back to test the 50 day MVA (65.75), tumbling harder this week as volume rose. Thursday UOPX caught itself above the 50 day and bounced some. Volume was lower but still very strong. This is one of the stronger stocks in the market, and the 50 day MVA test after a strong run is not completely out of the norm. Want to see it over the 10 day MVA (69.79) on strong volume.
Volume: 343.11K Avg Volume: 230K
BUY POINT: $69.42 Volume=328K Target=$79.88 Stop=$69.22
POSITION: UBL LN - Dec. $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$34.5; 0; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. A rougher Wednesday as VRTS fell back with the market. Low volume, however, and it held the 10 day MVA (34.53) on mild selling. Thursday it held steady with an 18 day MVA test (34.18) and rebounded on rising volume. It is showing very solid action, starting to form a reverse head and shoulders with this additional test of the short term MVA. A strong move over 36 breaks it out.
Volume: 5.867M Avg Volume: 6.5M
BUY POINT: New: $36.25 (orig. $35.77) Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.27
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
XRAY (Dentsply--$46.97; +0.72; optionable): Dental supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. XRAY is moving laterally over the 18 day MVA (46.06), testing back to that level Wednesday and then bouncing back up Thursday. Holding up very well, setting itself up for the next leg higher after this two week lateral move.
Volume: 317.195K Avg Volume: 378.954K
BUY POINT: New: $47.48 (orig. $45.58) Volume=625K Target=$54.55 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: XEQ AI - Jan. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/14/2003
EASI (Engineered Support--$64.94; -0.63; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Splits 3:2 on 11-3-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After trying a big breakout move Thursday with a gap higher following the overall market, EASI settled back Thursday, showing a tight doji over the 10 day MVA (63.95). Other than the Wednesday aberration, it is still in the pattern and still looks solid. Strong money flow and relative strength. Letting it reload and try the next breakout.
Volume: 97.475K Avg Volume: 194.318K
BUY POINT: $65.54 Volume=287K Target=$75 Stop=$62.94
POSITION: UFE BM - Feb. 65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/easi.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$66.54; +0.88; optionable): Regional airlines. Splits 3:2 on 11-21-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day. Holding the 18 day MVA (64.70) on an orderly pullback from the peak at 70. JBLU is still trying to shake off the sell rating it earned because of its success, and it is doing it in a very orderly manner. Volume has been up the past two sessions. Now we sit back and let it make the bounce on volume.
Volume: 1.764M Avg Volume: 1.288M
BUY POINT: $66.88 Volume=1.9M Target=$76 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: JGQ AN - Jan. $70c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jblu.html
Play Date: 10/07/2003
KRON (Kronos--$57.29; -0.13; no options): Business equipment (personnel timecards). Splits 3:2 on 11-3.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Testing 50 day MVA. After rebounding off 52.50 to start the month KRON is working laterally over the 10 day MVA (56.59) on below average volume. Very steady and orderly. Looking for the stock to rally on stronger volume to enter.
Volume: 109.048K Avg Volume: 147.318K
BUY POINT: $57.62 Volume=239K Target=$67.55 Stop=$55.78
POSITION: - Stock (only October options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/04/2003
HOTT (Hot Topic--$27.6; -0.65; optionable): Clothing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong breakout move from the double bottom pattern, HOTT is making its first test, coming back to tap at the 10 day MVA (26.97) on the Thursday low and then rebounding to recover much of the loss on rising, above average volume. A rather typical test after a strong run, and new positions can be taken on a move over 28 on continued strong volume.
Volume: 1.489M Avg Volume: 891.681K
BUY POINT: New: $28.06 (orig. $25.39) Volume=748K Target=$30.38 Stop=$26.71
POSITION: UHO BE - Feb. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hott.html
Play Date: 08/12/2003
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$46.59; +1.53; optionable): Internet communication software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. JCOM rallied well off the late September pullback and is now moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (44.61) on quiet, below average volume. Thursday it tested the 10 day and then jumped higher. Looking for volume to build on the break higher to take new positions.
Volume: 834.598K Avg Volume: 1.467M
BUY POINT: New: $46.95 (orig. $25.98) Volume=1.8M Target=$55 Stop=$43.65
POSITION: JQF LI - Dec. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$23.69; +0.25; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working over the 10 day MVA (23.22) and below 24 on low, below average volume. A very nice 6 week base, and we are simply waiting for the stock to make the breakout move on strong volume.
Volume: 773.991K Avg Volume: 1.895M
BUY POINT: $24.12 Volume=2.3M Target=$28.94 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: PVQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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