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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: CTCH; IRM; PARS
Thursday night play results:
BCON: Surged sharply, but gave it back when the market could not rally.
SIRI: It too was moving higher but gave back most of the move.
SOFO: Volume started higher as it moved off the 10 day MVA. Still looks very ready.
New Plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/18/2003
IDT (IDT Corp.--$18.9; 0; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Blasted out of a 15 week base just over a week ago, surging on a wave of volume. It was a very tight, orderly base showing excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Very nice breakout from a solid base with good money flow. The base was orderly and so is the tight, quiet pullback on very low, below average volume. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the Friday low (18.76) and rebounded. Looking for it to hold this moving average and rally on rising volume.
Volume: 30.4K Avg Volume: 119.234K
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=175K Target=$23 Stop=$18.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/idt.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
TRA (Terra Industries--$2.21; +0.07; no options): Nitrogen products for agricultural use
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tra.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Not sexy but there is gold in the ground that does not necessarily glitter. TRA surged higher in mid-September on strong volume, rallying to 2.20. From there it moved laterally below 2.20 and up the 10 day MVA (2.11), making a series of higher lows. That builds pressure for the breakout from below. Strong money flow and relative strength already breaking out. Looking for a high volume breakout over the top of the range.
Volume: 68.2K Avg Volume: 152.817K
BUY POINT: $2.29 Volume=205K Target=$2.88 Stop=$2.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tra.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/18/2003
ESV (Ensco Intl.--$26.24; -0.75; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esv.html
STATUS: Put. Oil and gas services have been under the gun, and ESV broke below the 200 day MVA (27.02) on Wednesday as volume jacked up to well above average. A lower volume attempt to retake that level Thursday failed, and Friday ESV was selling off again on strong trade. Looking to pick it up from here on a further move down. Looking for a move down near the August low.
Volume: 2.649M Avg Volume: 1.35M
BUY POINT: $26.08 Volume=2M Target=$24 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ESV XE - Dec. $25p (-33 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/esv.html
Continuing that look solid:
Play Date: 09/25/2003
VSV (Vasogen--$6.19; +0.34; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsv.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After a two week lateral breakout test, VSV is starting the next leg higher, surging off the 18 day MVA (5.79) Friday on an excellent volume surge. Looks like VSV is ready to start the next move from its 3.5 month base breakout. Super money flow, accumulation, and solid relative strength.
Volume: 244K Avg Volume: 106.617K
BUY POINT: New: $6.22 (orig. $6.18) Volume=300K Target=$8.08 Stop=$5.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vsv.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
DIS: Forming a nice handle over the 10 day MVA and below 22, moving laterally on below average volume. Very nice handle forming and looking for a breakout over 22.
GTRC: Got a bit rocky, but bounced off the 50 day MVA in late August and then started the current 7 week cup w/handle base that has used the 50 day as support. It is falling back to form a handle, tapping at the 18 day MVA on the low. Breakout is over 36.65 on 585K trade or better.
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Ready to move: ASTM; CYPB; FL; GNSC; ONNN; SOFO; VSV; WMGI
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGRB 08/28 Rv H&S 3.33 -0.15 3.02 3.95 1.2M 6.7M 3.18
AMZN 05/03 BO 59.69 -0.22 30.3 35.45 12M 12M 54.94
Current. Pull back on higher, above average volume. Tested Thursday's gain intraday. Managed to retain some of Thursday's move. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
ASTM 09/22 Cup hdl 1.5 +0.01 1.86 2.38 908K 4.1M 1.64
Buy Not Hit. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Continued to make a lateral move. The stock has not made the move we were looking for, so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
AUDC 09/06 Test BO 9.24 +0.01 8.29 10.35 56K 461K 8.98
Current. Moved up off the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in uptrend.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 55 +0.39 0 0 1.3M 0 0
BCON 10/16 A Wedge 0.91 +0.06 0.96 1.25 15M 6.6M 0.83
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open and moved higher on much stronger above average volume. Went up to tap 1.06 at the day's high, but could not hold the entire gain. Ready for next move up.
BPOP 10/06 Cup hdl 42.74 -0.01 41.55 49.92 160K 320K 39.98
Buy Not Issued. Fractional pull back on average volume. Stock made a low volume ascent, before it gapped up on higher volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
BXS 10/13 Cup hdl 23.07 +0.17 23.52 28.25 96K 104K 22.35
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down to hold at the simple 50 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Needs to hold here or will drop the play.
CHS 10/04 Dbl btm 35.59 -0.91 34.62 41.53 2.1M 1.8M 34.92
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape.
CTCH 10/15 Flat 1.47 +0.29 1.1 1.48 2.6M 270K 1.32
Current. Another explosive move up on excellent volume surge.
CYPB 09/24 Test 18 9.05 -0.08 8.61 10.65 224K 294K 8.88
Current. Continue the pull back. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Tested above the 10 day MVA at the day's high, but could not hold the gain.
DIS 08/09 Test 50 21.58 -0.32 22.06 26.48 5.5M 9M 21.12
DKS 10/13 Cup 43.65 -0.58 44.68 55.38 192K 603K 41.55
Current. Pull back on much lower below average volume. Continue to make a low volume lateral move.
DRIV 08/25 Cup hdl 31.65 -1.45 25.75 30.25 512K 1.7M 30.94
Current. Pull back to close below the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Testing the breakout. Still in good shape.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 31.65 -1.45 24.18 27.48 512K 1.7M 30.94
Current.
DRRX 10/14 Cup hdl 2.37 -1.37 4.09 5.31 3.4M 571K 3.8
Buy Not Hit. Tanked falling below the 200 day MVA on strong volume surge. The stock has not made the move we are looking for so will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 54.86 -2.64 34.72 46 34M 12M 57.25
Current. Tanked holding above support at 54 on strong volume surge. News of guidance did not fare well. Will look for a bounce to exit if the stock does not recover.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 54.86 -2.64 31.22 46 34M 12M 57.25
Current.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 5.22 -0.23 5.07 6.35 365K 264K 4.96
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, above average volume. Managed to retain a portion of yesterday's gain. Continuing to move up the 10 day MVA.
EGOV 09/20 Cup hdl 5.22 -0.23 4.8 5.68 365K 264K 4.96
Current.
FL 10/11 A Wedge 17.35 -0.05 17.38 20.88 291K 1.4M 16.88
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
GENR 10/04 Cup hdl 5.18 -0.46 5.54 6.97 3.9M 1.5M 5.42
Exited. Exited the play. Stock tanked below the 18 day MVA on very strong volume.
GIGM 10/01 Cup hdl 3 -0.17 3.12 4.05 1.1M 2.7M 2.74
Current. Pull back on low volume to test the Tuesday's breakout. Held at support from July's breakout.
GNSC 10/09 Test BO 2.5 +0.02 2.54 3.35 90K 175K 2.24
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down and then made a nice move up on slightly higher, but still below average volume. Still in the pattern, but will need more volume.
HILL 09/27 BO 14.15 -0.6 14.6 17.32 1.6M 1.3M 13.94
Exited. Exited the play when stock tanked on strong volume surge.
IMCO 09/18 Test BO 7.75 -0.11 8.45 10.45 42K 225K 7.54
Exited. Exited the play, because the stock was not making the move. Stock fell below the 10 day MVA on low volume.
IRM 09/10 Put 35 -0.89 34.55 32 407K 500K 36.12
Current. Great move down on higher, average volume. Held at support.
JNPR 10/04 Test 50 17.09 -0.32 17.1 20.48 6.3M 17M 16.96
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Still in good shape. Ready to move back up.
LCCI 10/08 Cup hdl 6.17 +0.05 6.08 7.62 37K 111K 5.78
Current. Tapped 6 and rallied showing a tight doji on below average volume. Resistance is at 6.33. Still in the pattern.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 24.5 -0.14 0 0 640K 1.3M 0
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA but could not hold the gain showing a tight doji on much lower, but average volume.
LUV 09/11 Cup hdl 18.4 -0.22 18.54 22.25 2M 3.7M 18.32
Exited. Exited the play as the stock fell below the 18 day MVA on higher volume.
NXG 10/15 Cup 1.92 -0.02 1.89 2.48 800K 684K 1.78
Current. Pull back on much lower, but above average volume. Tapped 1.89 at the low and rallied managingto retain the majority of Thursday's move. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
NXTL 10/02 Cup hdl 21.81 -0.55 20.76 24.95 16M 27M 20.98
Current. Gapped up at the open, but could not hold the gain to close above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. May pull back to test further.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 21.81 -0.55 20.64 24.75 16M 24M 20.98
Current.
NYB 09/27 Cup hdl 32.43 -0.95 33.35 40 569K 1.5M 31.52
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down to hold at the 18 day MVA on higher, volume. Stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
OCR 08/09 Cup hdl 36.75 -0.34 36.54 43.85 401K 1.2M 34.78
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on below average volume. Stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
ONNN 10/08 Test 50 4.53 -0.07 4.58 5.75 2M 1.7M 4.22
Buy Not Issued. Tested the simple 50 day MVA and rallied to close above the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume. Continues to make a lateral move along the 10 day MVA.
ORCC 09/22 Test BO 7.86 -0.11 8 9.38 88K 165K 7.44
Current. Gapped up at the open and then ran up to tap 8.50, but could not hold the gain on much lower, but still above average volume. Managed to retain the majority of yesterday's breakout.
ORCC 09/15 Cup hdl 7.86 -0.11 6.99 8.81 88K 165K 7.12
Current.
OSIS 10/11 Cup hdl 18.5 -0.8 19.25 22.95 145K 547K 18.38
Current. Thudded down to close below the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, below average volume. Testing the breakout.
PARS 10/11 Cup hdl 4.06 +0.3 2.94 3.88 6.4M 1.2M 3.44
Current. Another nice move up, however did tap 4.32 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain.
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 3.33 -0.09 2.55 3.24 870K 450K 2.98
Current. Volatile session tapped 3.75 at the high, but could not hold the gain on stronger above average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
QLGC 10/14 Rv H&S 52.7 -1.19 52.88 63.38 7.2M 7M 50.97
Current. Gapped down at the open then went up to tap 55.08, but could not hold the gain closing down on lower, but still above average volume. Managed to retain a portion of Thursday's great move.
QRSI 08/20 Cup hdl 9.41 -0.27 8.6 10.72 79K 184K 8.94
Target Hit. Took the rest of the gain off the table. May have been
hasty, but it was selling below the 18 day MVA though managed to rebound late.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 30.06 -0.38 30.35 36.75 2M 6M 29.25
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close below the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 30.06 -0.38 26.3 30.94 2M 6M 29.25
Current.
SINA 09/09 Cup 40 -1.6 36.15 41 8.7M 12M 38.94
Current. Gapped down to hold slightly above the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Should bounce from the 18 day MVA.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 40 -1.6 32.2 38.25 8.7M 10M 38.94
Current.
SIRI 10/16 Cup hdl 2.41 +0.04 2.48 3.12 82M 8M 2.28
Buy Not Issued. More volatile session. Gapped up at the open and filled in the gap intraday. Tapped 2.48 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain showing a doji on lower, but above average volume. Stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
SOFO 10/02 Test BO 2.09 +0.11 2.05 2.74 387K 395K 1.86
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on much higher, above average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 2.21. Still in the pattern.
SPRT 08/28 A Wedge 11.3 -2.31 10.28 12.35 3.6M 910K 12.59
Exited. Exited with trailing stop. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on strong volume surge.
SWIR 09/08 Test BO 18.71 +0.21 12.29 14.65 446K 425K 17.48
Current. Moved up on higher, but below average volume. Continue make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
TELM 09/30 Test BO 1.65 -0.14 1.51 2.04 5.5M 7M 1.48
Current. Gapped lower at the open, but shot up to tap 1.81 at the high, but could not hold the gain on below average volume. Managed to retain some of yesterday's great move.
TGT 08/09 Flat 39.68 -0.57 41.45 50 2.5M 5.7M 38.74
TLCV 09/23 Cup hdl 7.1 -0.1 7.16 8.62 641K 1.1M 6.79
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied closing above the 10 day MVA on higher, but below average volume. Testing the 10/8 breakout. Still in the pattern and in good shape.
TSCC 10/09 DB hdl 1.53 +0.07 1.42 1.85 557K 451K 1.24
Buy Not Issued. Stock has made a low volume ascent on higher volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for, so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 38.44 -0.26 28.06 31.44 690K 494K 36.12
Current. Tapped 39.71 at the high, but could not hold the gain closing down on much higher, above average volume. Still in good shape and moving up the 10 day MVA.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 38.44 -0.26 23.42 27.62 690K 603K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 38.44 -0.26 21.88 26 690K 603K 33.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 38.44 -0.26 19.3 22.19 690K 577K 36.12
Current.
TTP 10/07 Cup 3.45 -0.25 2.87 3.68 1.3M 221K 3.18
Current. Volatile session. Tapped resistance at 4.00, but could not hold the gain closing down on lower, but very strong volume. Tapped 3.35 at the low and rallied. Managed to retain a portion of Thursday's gain.
VSV 09/25 Test BO 6.19 +0.34 6.18 8.08 244K 300K 5.75
Buy Not Hit. Broke out and made a nice move up on very strong volume surge.
WINS 10/07 Cup hdl 13.21 -0.48 13.38 16.65 99K 275K 12.99
Current. Fell to hold at the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the breakout.
WMGI 09/10 Flat 26.56 +0.01 26.26 31.48 217K 400K 25.82
Current. Moved up on higher, above average volume. Continue with its collateral move.
YHOO 09/22 Test BO 42.24 +0.03 37.95 45.25 13M 15M 41.04
Current. Gapped up at the open and went up to tap 42.90, but could not hold the high. Tested 41.61 at the high. Tapped 41.61 at the low and rallied.
YHOO 09/04 Rv H&S 42.24 +0.03 34.9 42 13M 20M 41.04
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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