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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Best Plays:
1) SNCI: Low volume test setting up for the next move.
2) BMET: Very nice test and volume started higher Friday.
3) ODSY: Turning down from the 50 day MVA on above average volume.
4) ABMD: Very nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA.
5) ALGN: Nice lateral test on low volume after a strong breakout.
6) CVM: Nice doji at the 10 day MVA to test the breakout.
7) PIXR: Turning down below the 50 day MVA after failing an attempt to retake that level.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/18/2003
BMET (Biomet--$33.74; -0.1; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BMET is moving laterally and slightly lower, coming back to test the 18 day MVA (33.58) after the breakout from a 6 month cup base. It never formed the handle, the lateral move just below the prior high that shakes out the last sellers, and this action after the breakout is doing that as the short term profit takers bail out. Accumulation in the base was a solid 9 to 5 (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). The surge higher in September was on sharply higher, above average volume, a good sign of accumulation. The test the past 5 weeks has been on much lower, below average volume. That lower volume shows there are not many sellers, just weeding out the short term profit takers. Volume was up sharply and back to average on Friday, and that could be telling us to get ready. Want to see a strong surge through the buy point that holds the move toward the breakout.
Volume: 2.14M Avg Volume: 2.002M
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=3M Target=$40 Stop=$33.44
POSITION: BIQ AZ - Jan. $32.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmet.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
SNCI (Sonic Innovations--$7.4; -0.37; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snci.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SNIC broke higher Wednesday on a nice above average volume surge. The move took it out of a 7 week flat base sporting outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation. The modest selling Thursday and Friday was on much lower, below average volume. Looking for it to hold the 10 day MVA (7.12) and then rally back on rising volume. Strong money flow and relative strength made the breakout on the move, an indication of the move's strength.
Volume: 33.037K Avg Volume: 79.912K
BUY POINT: Test 7.12, then $7.28 on the way back up. Volume=120K Target=$9.12 Stop=$7.06
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/snci.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$6.01; -0.13; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another stock that made the move and is now testing it, holding onto most of its gains. SVNT broke out of a 12 week cup with handle base to start the month. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the pattern and a relative strength breakout as well, supporting the move. The past two weeks SVNT has moved laterally in a tight range over the 10 day MVA (5.96) on mostly below average volume. The days volume has spiked were on on up sessions, a positive for the pattern. Money flow is very strong and has continued to rise ahead of price as the stock moves laterally. Very nice action and being patient and waiting for the next above average volume break higher that continues the breakout.
Volume: 405.679K Avg Volume: 451.919K
BUY POINT: $6.38 Volume=678K Target=$7.98 Stop=$5.93
POSITION: QTG DA - April $5c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/18/2003
ESV (Ensco Intl.--$26.24; -0.75; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esv.html
STATUS: Put. Oil and gas services have been under the gun, and ESV broke below the 200 day MVA (27.02) on Wednesday as volume jacked up to well above average. A lower volume attempt to retake that level Thursday failed, and Friday ESV was selling off again on strong trade. Looking to pick it up from here on a further move down. Looking for a move down near the August low.
Volume: 2.649M Avg Volume: 1.35M
BUY POINT: $26.08 Volume=2M Target=$24 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ESV XE - Dec. $25p (-33 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esv.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
ODSY (Odyssey Healthcare--$28.40; -0.92; optionable): Long-term care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odsy.html
STATUS: Put. After peaking at 36 in early September after a strong 4 month run, ODSY rolled over. It fell to the 50 day MVA (29.69) and has struggled the past 4 weeks at that level. Two weeks back it tanked to 26 and then rebounded to the 50 day. It tried to make the move to retake that important point last week but failed, falling Friday on above average volume. It turned over right at the new downt trendline that has formed. Looking for further downside on rising volume.
Volume: 543.8K Avg Volume: 525K
BUY POINT: $28.18 Volume=511K Target=$25 Stop=$29.75
POSITION: UPE MF - Jan. $30p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/odsy.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.89; -0.15; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ABMD continues to move laterally, furthering its three week flying plateau after the strong breakout from its 4 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Waiting patiently for ABMD to start the next leg of the breakout.
Volume: 52.938K Avg Volume: 103.048K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
AFOP (Alliance Fiber Optic--$2.15; +0.36; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afop.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making the breakout, moving higher Friday on a nice surge of above average trade. Relative strength made the breakout as well as AFOP moves out of its 23 month base sporting 13 to 11 accumulation (13 up weeks on rising volume to 11 down weeks on rising volume). Still a buy on this move.
Volume: 615.501K Avg Volume: 451.544K
BUY POINT: New: 2.19 (orig. $1.94) Volume=750K Target=$2.78 Stop=$1.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afop.html
Play Date: 10/09/2003
ALGN (Align Tech--$15.21; -0.55; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/algn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ALGN broke from a 13 week base 7 sessions back on an outstanding volume surge. It has spent the last week moving laterally over the 10 day MVA 15.03) on lower and lower volume, consolidating that move and preparing for the continuation of the breakout move. Medial stocks are moving on their own pace in the market, and ALGN is biding its time, being stingy with its gains. It may take a few more sessions, but looking for ALGN to resume the breakout with a strong move over the recent highs at 16.
Volume: 246.329K Avg Volume: 419.541K
BUY POINT: New: $16.32 (orig. $14.98) Volume=605K Target=New: 18.78 (orig. poisitons: $17.48) Stop=$14.88
POSITION: CUA AV - Jan. $12.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/algn.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHL (China Mobile--$14.87; -0.08; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CHL gave us the ncie breakout move 8 sessions back but is coming back to test the move as most stocks do, particularly in the bumpy market of late. It has been a very orderly pullback, tapping at the 10 day MVA on the intraday low (14.87) and then rebounding to recoup most of the session loss. Very solid still, and looking for an above average volume move over 15 to add to or tak new positions on this breakout.
Volume: 371.6K Avg Volume: 542.262K
BUY POINT: New: 15.08 (orig. $14.08) Volume=730K Target=New: 17.95 (orig. positions $16.88) Stop=$14.38
POSITION: CHL LV - Dec. $12.50c (89 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chl.html
Play Date: 09/29/2003
CVM (Cel-Sci Corp.--$1.28; -0.03; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Call it a test or call it the handle to a 4.5 month cup with handle base. Either way it is a nice and orderly pullback to test and hold the 10 day MVA (1.26) on lower volume. Accumulation in the pattern is an outstanding 6 to 0. Super money flow and a relative strength breakout. Very nice.
Volume: 845.9K Avg Volume: 725.655K
BUY POINT: New: 1.35 (orig. $1.17) Volume=900K Target=New positions: $1.88 (orig. positions: $1.56) Stop=$1.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvm.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
MANU (Manugistics Group--$6.38; -0.17; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manu.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still moving laterally in a narrow range, holding over the 10 day MVA (6.41) on the lows and 7 on the highs. Still working on consolidating the breakout from its 15 week cup with handle base showing steady 5 to 3 accumulation. Very low volume to end the week. Just looking for volume to step up and push MANU on to the next move in the breakout.
Volume: 511.22K Avg Volume: 871.724K
BUY POINT: $6.72 Volume=1.4M Target=$8.06 Stop=$6.21
POSITION: ZUQ AA - Jan. $5c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/manu.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
NANX (Nanophase Technologies--$7.49; -0.2; optionable): Mining: industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nanx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Strong move Wednesday on volume that then eased back to end the week as volume fell off the table. As noted before, basic metals are performing well, another indication of improving world (not just US) economies. During the 4 week lateral move over the 18 day MVA (7.03) the stock has been under accumulation with 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Friday it tested the 18 day MVA (7.14) and the recovered most of the losses. Not bad action, but just need to be patient for a strong move through the buy point on above average volume.
Volume: 53.078K Avg Volume: 112.203K
BUY POINT: New: 7.94 (orig. $7.88) Volume=200K Target=$9.45 Stop=$7.2
POSITION: NSY CU - Mar. $7.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nanx.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
PRGS (Progress Software--$23.05; -0.5; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 4 month base sporting excellent 6 to 2 accumulation though Friday things got a bit wilder than we wanted, falling back to 23 on rising though still below average volume. A nice pattern still, and we are just going to sit back and let it tell us if it is ready by showing the strong volume breakout over the buy point.
Volume: 114.386K Avg Volume: 173.999K
BUY POINT: $23.95 Volume=287K Target=$28.75 Stop=$22.71
POSITION: RGQ CX - Mar. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prgs.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/14/2003
PIXR (Pixar--$67.79; -1.57; optionable): Animated graphics movies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Put. After one more attempt Wednesday and Thursday to reclaim the 50 day MVA (69.10), PIXR turned over again and started a sharper fall. Volume was up but still well below average. Still a buy at this point but need to get on in.
Volume: 337.377K Avg Volume: 450.065K
BUY POINT: New: $67.68 (orig. $68.44) Volume=600K Target=$65 Stop=$69.15
POSITION: PQJ WN - Nov. $70p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pixr.html
End part 2 of 3
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world stock market
us stock market
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