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Begin part 2 of 3
Leader plays (contd.)
Play Date: 09/27/2003
KFX (KFX, Inc.--$6.04; +0.23; no options): Clean energy technologies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kfx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Starting the move back up, moving higher Friday on rising, above average volume. KFX blasted higher to start the month, rallying to over 6. It made a nice, orderly test, holding over the 10 day MVA (5.80). Making the move and still a buy.
Volume: 219.2K Avg Volume: 125.625K
BUY POINT: New: $6.08 (orig. $5.24) Volume=137K Target=$6.62 Stop=$5.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kfx.html
Play Date: 09/15/2003
MOBE (Mobility Electronics--$9.27; -0.16; no options): Mobile computing aides
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mobe.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After breaking higher two weeks back, MOBE has turned sideways, working laterally over the 10 day MVA (9.21) in a very tight intraday range. Volume has dried up on the move, just what you want to see as that indicates no sellers. Continued excellent accumulation and money flow, and just waiting for MOBE to start higher on a volume surge to enter new positions.
Volume: 261.095K Avg Volume: 646.696K
BUY POINT: New: $9.55 (orig. $8.70) Volume=810K Target=$10.88 Stop=$8.83
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mobe.html
Play Date: 10/16/2003
TIWI (Telesystem Intl. Wireless--$5.5; +0.08; no options): Foreign wireless (Romania, India, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tiwi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried the breakout from its pattern, but Friday was not a day of wall to wall good moves. Still looks solid, however, in its short 5 week cup with handle base with 2 to 1 accumulation. Still looking to enter on a move over the September high (5.49) that sticks..
Volume: 538.289K Avg Volume: 219.579K
BUY POINT: $5.52 Volume=350K Target=$6.94 Stop=$5.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tiwi.html
Play Date: 09/25/2003
VSV (Vasogen--$6.19; +0.34; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsv.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After a two week lateral breakout test, VSV is starting the next leg higher, surging off the 18 day MVA (5.79) Friday on an excellent volume surge. Looks like VSV is ready to start the next move from its 3.5 month base breakout. Super money flow, accumulation, and solid relative strength.
Volume: 244K Avg Volume: 106.617K
BUY POINT: New: $6.22 (orig. $6.18) Volume=300K Target=$8.08 Stop=$5.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsv.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of action this week with earnings season hitting its peak. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements.
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: No split announced 10-07-03.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: Forecast 10-15-03 after the close. No split but huge earnings and the stock shot higher.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03 before the market opens with earnings.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03 after the market closes.
ETN: No split with earnings on 10-14. Strong move, however, and looking now at 10-22 with a board meeting.
GDW: Forecast 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
JOSB: Forecast 12-1-03 before the market opens. Tanked below the 50 day MVA. Dropping for now to let it regroup.
KMI: No split on 10-15. Could not hold the breakout so moved out of positions.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
MERQ: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-23-03 after the close.
ORLY: Forecast 10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: Forecast 10-16-03 after the market closes. Beat the street by a penny after the close.
UOPX: No split with earnings on 10-7.
VRTS: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03 after the close.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/18/2003
MGAM (Multimedia Games--$39.43; -1.17; optionable): Gaming. Forecast to announce a split on 11-12-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 1-14-02 at a stock price of $36.50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. MGAM broke out of a 5 month flat base in late September and has rallied up the short term MVA. It is currently making its second test of the 10 and 18 day MVA (39.09, 37.28), tapping toward the 18 day MVA on Friday and then closing over the 10 day as volume rallied back above average. Good to see volume increase as it shows a doji at support. Stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up the 10 and 18 day MVA after the breakout from a good base, and MGAM looks ready to make the second bounce. Very strong money flow and a relative strength breakout on top of the solid breakout. Looking for it to turn up here on continued rising volume.
Volume: 586.9K Avg Volume: 550K
BUY POINT: $40.65 Volume=825K Target=$48.78 Stop=$38.45
POSITION: QMG AH - Jan. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mgam.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
NTE (Nam Tai Electronics--$30.54; -1.44; optionable): Hong Kong based telecom and consumer electronic equipment manufacturing and design consultant. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for1 split on 6-20-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $33. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-8-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nte.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. NTE started its run in July with a strong breakout. It made 4 bounces off the 10 and 18 day MVA (31.23, 30.44) before making a test of the 50 day MVA (27.08). That is typical action for a stock in a strong uptrend after a breakout: bouncing 4 to 5 times up the short term MVA and then selling back to test the 50 day MVA before starting back up for another run up the short term MVA. Good volume Thursday as it held the 18 day MVA and bounced. Volume backed way off Friday as it fell back to that level. Looking for it to hold here and start another run. It just split in July, but stocks such as NTE with high growth rates and are just starting their runs tend to announce a few quick splits.
Volume: 773.6K Avg Volume: 800K
BUY POINT: $32.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$39.55 Stop=$30.42
POSITION: NTE CF - Mar. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nte.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
SYMC (Symantec--$64.95; -1.24; optionable): Internet software and services. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 12-17-01 at a stock price of $67.20. The annual shareholder meeting was on 8-21-03 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. SYMC is working laterally over the 18 day MVA (64.55). This move is the consolidation from the breakout from a 7.5 month flat base in late August. The lateral move has been on lower, below average volume. The stock has made a strong surge here and if the overall market is weak it can lead to a deeper test. We will let the stock show us what moves we make by what moves it makes. Looking for a breakout from this lateral consolidation on a big volume surge to enter.
Volume: 2.405M Avg Volume: 3.433M
BUY POINT: $66.88 Volume=5M Target=$76.94 Stop=$64.25
POSITION: SYQ AM - Jan. $65c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/symc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/13/2003
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$34.15; -0.55; optionable): Restaurants. Still researching the next split.
BACKGROUND: Last split in June 2002 at a price of $38.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Flat base. APPB broke out from a nice 3.5 month base a week back and has since managed a volatile move up the 10 day MVA (33.79). Volume has been up and down, but tailed off to end the week. Friday it came back to test toward the 10 day on the low as volume was even lower. Still a very nice base with excellent 5 to 2 accumulaiton (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). All we really need to see is some average or better trade on another move up to enter.
Volume: 141.573K Avg Volume: 495.44K
BUY POINT: $34.88 (orig. $34.62) Volume=750K Target=$41.55 Stop=$32.78
POSITION: AQB BG - Feb. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$67.62; -0.18; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Flat. AVP started to move higher toward the end of last week, rallying up off the 10 day MVA (67). Volume edged higher, but was still below average, so the move did not have much power. Holding up very well and showing nice, orderly action in a market that was quite volatile. May come back again to test the 10 day, but on a move from here over 68 on average or better volume, that is the next entry point.
Volume: 587.4K Avg Volume: 902.3K
BUY POINT: New: 68.06 (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHS (Chicos Fas--$35.59; -0.91; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-2-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-27-02 at a stock price of $37.74. Prior to this split CHS has announced other splits in December: 12-01 and 12-99, so December is a favored month. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CHS moved out of its short 5 week double bottom w/handle base7 sessions back, surging on an excellent jump in volume. It has come back to tap the 10 day MVA (35.31) on the Friday low, managing to hold that level even though volume spiked higher and well above average. It may come all the way back to test the breakout point that also coincides with the 18 day MVA (34.38). Either way we are going to be ready for another volume break higher from the 10 day or the 18 day.
Volume: 2.087M Avg Volume: 1.139M
BUY POINT: New: From here 36.06; from 18 day MVA, $34.62 Volume=1.8M Target=$41.53 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: CHS BF - Feb. $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$58.44; +1.23; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 at stock price of $21.84. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. COLM is looking solid, moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (57.16) and below some resistance at 58.50. Holding up very well as the market gyrates. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Forecast early this week and we are looking for another breakout on above average volume.
Volume: 123.31K Avg Volume: 209.689K
BUY POINT: New: $58.88 (orig. $54.12) Volume=475K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.72
POSITION: TQQ AK - Jan. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 09/30/2003
RI (Ruby Tuesday--$26.24; -0.26; optionable): Restaurants, casual dining. No split announced on 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings and with annual shareholder meeting. Researching the next date but good action and want to be in it if it makes another good move.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-11-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $19.10. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 10-7-03 at 11:00 am CT at which time no additional shares are authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ri.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. As with many of the leaders, RI was testing back last week, moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (26.12) after a solid, high volume breakout two weeks back. The lateral move has been on lower, below average volume, indicating very few sellers as it works laterally and digests the gain. Just waiting for the next break higher over the near resistance on above average volume.
Volume: 245.1K Avg Volume: 467.44K
BUY POINT: $27.72 Volume=750K Target=$33 Stop=$25.78
POSITION: RI AX - Jan. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ri.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/14/2003
EASI (Engineered Support--$64.59; -0.35; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Splits 3:2 on 11-3-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still looking at EASI even after the the failed breakout on Wednesday. It managed to resume its business, holding over the 10 day MVA (64.07) in a narrow range. Since it is ignoring Wednesday, we will do the same and look for an above average volume break higher through the buy point.
Volume: 70.452K Avg Volume: 193.912K
BUY POINT: $65.54 Volume=287K Target=$75 Stop=$62.94
POSITION: UFE BM - Feb. 65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/easi.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$65.71; -0.83; optionable): Regional airlines. Splits 3:2 on 11-21-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. JBLU continues to hold up quite well despite the 'sell' downgrade it received 6 sessions back. It has slipped to the 18 day MVA (64.80) on mostly lower volume. We are simply waiting for the stock to start back up on a very strong volume shot. It keeps making more and more money, and once it shakes off this downgrade we are looking for it to make that strong move.
Volume: 1.696M Avg Volume: 1.306M
BUY POINT: $66.88 Volume=1.9M Target=$76 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: JGQ AN - Jan. $70c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jblu.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/13/2003
IFIN (Investors Financial Services--$35.64; -0.81; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ifin.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. IFIN surged higher on a strong breakout Wednesday with the rest of the market, and promptly came back as did the rest of the market. Friday it tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (35.10) and rebounded to recover some of the losses. Still sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base it just broke from, and enjoys excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. It may test back closer to the 10 day MVA on more time and then be set to make the move.
Volume: 703.916K Avg Volume: 602.858K
BUY POINT: Test 35.10 and then $35.65. From here36.12. Volume=862K Target=$42.45 Stop=$34.94
POSITION: FLQ AZ - Jan. $32.50c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ifin.html
Play Date: 08/12/2003
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$44.4; -2.19; optionable): Internet communication software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Looked ready to go Friday but then fell back to the 10 day MVA (37.83) Friday on rising though still below average trade. JCOM continues to move laterally over the 10 day on mostly low volume. This one can run like the wind, but want to see it make the stronger volume break higher over the recent trading range before we take new positions.
Volume: 1.317M Avg Volume: 1.05M
BUY POINT: New: $46.95 (orig. $25.98) Volume=1.8M Target=$55 Stop=$43.65
POSITION: JQF LI - Dec. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$22.95; -0.74; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Friday the action got a bit wilder as PSUN tried to move higher but then fell with the rest of the market, finding the 18 day MVA (22.81) on the session low. Volume remained very low as it works in the handle of a nice 7 week base. Just being patient to see if it can hold up in the handle and provide a breakout on above average trade.
Volume: 992.843K Avg Volume: 1.526M
BUY POINT: $24.12 Volume=2.3M Target=$28.94 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: PVQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Play Date: 09/23/2003
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$32.5; +0.12; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a big run from a late September breakout from a short base URBN is making a modest test of the move, working laterally over the 10 day MVA (31.18) on very low, below average volume. We expect it will make a lateral move this week and then make the breakout after it works off the big run. May take a few days, but we want to be ready.
Volume: 538.607K Avg Volume: 338.689K
BUY POINT: New: 33.05 (orig. $26.55) Volume=953K Target=New positions: $38 (orig. $31.15) Stop=$31.04
POSITION: URQ LE - Dec. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACV 08/04 Test 18 61.92 -0.08 58.45 67.45 147K 400K 60.95
Current. Gapped up at the open, but could not hold the gain on below average volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
ACV 07/19 BO 61.92 -0.08 54.8 65.85 147K 400K 60.95
Current.
ADIC 10/04 Cup hdl 17 -0.63 15.99 19.22 940K 1.2M 15.95
Current. Pull back on much lower, but still above average volume. Managed to retain part of Thursday's nice move. Did tap 17.99 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain.
ADPT 10/04 Rv H&S 8.5 -0.28 8.86 10.65 778K 1.6M 8.32
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close below the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. May go down and test the breakout.
APA 09/30 Cup hdl 70.32 -0.18 69.58 80 1.4M 1.8M 68.62
Moved down to close on the 18 day MVA on above average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
APOL 08/14 Test 50 61.08 -0.75 65.88 75.45 1.7M 2M 65.12
Current. Continued to move further down on average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
APPB 10/13 BO 34.15 -0.55 34.62 41.55 141K 750K 32.78
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but lost the gain on very low volume. Managed to retain some of Thursday's great move
ARO 10/08 Test BO 31.31 -0.69 31.55 37.85 430K 1.3M 29.12
Buy Not Issued. Continued to move down to close below the 10 day MVA. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
AV 09/25 Flat 13.52 -0.17 11.38 13.65 2.4M 4.4M 12.55
Current. Pull back on lower, below average volume. Tapped 13.28 at the day's low and rallied. Managed to retain most of last Friday's great move up. Continues to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
AVP 08/14 Test 50 67.62 -0.18 66.68 76.32 587K 1.7M 66.34
Current. Gapped up at the open, but lost the gain on below average volume. Still in uptrend and is moving up the 10 day MVA.
End part 2 of 3
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