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trade stock, stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) EVCI: Making a nice volume breakout.
2) DFIB: Nice pattern, great accumulation, good sector.
3) SOX: Will rally with TXN, just needs to hold the gains.
4) ABMD: Still very intriguing on the low volume breakout test.
5) BKHM: Nice test.
6) CVM: Starting back up on volume.
7) ESV: May make an intraday test and set up the good downside.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/20/2003
BRLI (Bio-Reference Labs--$12.3; +0.65; no options): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brli.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. BRLI formed a 16 month base, broke out in late September, and looks to have just finished a successful test of that breakout. After moving over 12 in late September on the breakout, BRLI moved laterally, making higher lows along the 18 day MVA (11.30) as volume backed off to below average levels. Monday BRLI jumped off the 18 day MVA on very strong trade, a move that looks to be the start of the next leg after the breakout. Accumulation in the base was a solid 18 to 8 (18 up price weeks on rising volume to 8 down price weeks on rising volume, showing net institutional buying), great price/volume action in the base, and a relative strength breakout (an indication of a strong breakout). Looking to pick it up here on a further move on solid volume.
Volume: 445.882K Avg Volume: 141.363K
BUY POINT: $12.65 Volume=212K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.76
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brli.html
Play Date: 10/20/2003
DFIB (Cardiac Science--$4.63; -0.02; no options): Medical Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dfib.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DFIB has formed a neat little 5 week double bottom with handle base that is acting as the handle to a much larger 23 month cup with handle base showing solid 24 to 10 accumulation. In the short double bottom the accumulation is 2 to 0. Strong money flow and relative strength moving for the breakout. The last three sessions DFIB has moved laterally over the 10 day MVA (4.51), tapping that level on the lows and rebounding. Good action and just waiting for the next breakout move to take positions. Good sector that has held up well as the market turned choppy.
Volume: 448.693K Avg Volume: 1.418M
BUY POINT: $4.86 Volume=2.1M Target=$5.95 Stop=$4.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dfib.html
Play Date: 10/20/2003
EVCI (EVCI Career Colleges--$3.25; +0.42; no options): Education and Training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/evci.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making the breakout from its 6 month base, EVCI sharply higher Monday on another sharply higher volume session. Strong 7 to 1 accumulation has set the foundation for the move. Strong money flow is still out ahead of the price and relative strength is moving up near a breakout. Nice move and looking to pick it up on this move.
Volume: 606.4K Avg Volume: 75.545K
BUY POINT: $3.29 Volume=125K Target=$4.25 Stop=$3.08
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/evci.html
Play Date: 10/20/2003
^SOXX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$473.47; +8.28; optionable): Semiconductor index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^soxx.html
STATUS: Test 10 day MVA. SOX tried to extend the rally last Wednesday but reversed so we took gains on that option play. It flopped to the 10 day MVA (466.46) Friday, but was leading the market again Monday. TXN's earnings energized the sector after hours. It will break sharply higher tomorrow, and though aggressive given the overall market action, we are going to look at some early positions, see if there is a good test that holds, and then pick up more positions after the test holds and the index starts to move back up. That test usually occurs within the first hour. It may well gap past our buy point, and if it opens up at 480 or thereabouts we will let it make that first test. After looking a bit shaky the chips are attempting to exert leadership and we want to catch the index on a further run toward 500.
BUY POINT: $475.38 Volume=627K Target=$500 Stop=$472.55
POSITION: SXX LO - Dec. $475c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^soxx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.96; +0.07; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA (8.52) and below 9 on very, very low volume. Currently in a three week flying plateau after the strong breakout from its 4 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Still waiting for the continuation move.
Volume: 29.024K Avg Volume: 102.681K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 10/13/2003
BKHM (Bookham Technology--$2.69; -0.03; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkhm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a solid move two weeks back, BKHM continues the week long test, coming back to tap the 10 day MVA (2.59) on the intraday low the past two sessions. Monday volume edged p toward average on the test and rebound. With the TXN et al news, BKHM may get a shot in the arm and we will look to a high volume move from here an opportunity to pick up more positions for the next breakout run.
Volume: 2.109M Avg Volume: 1.676M
BUY POINT: $2.78 Volume=2M Target=$3.62 Stop=$2.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bkhm.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
BMET (Biomet--$34.27; +0.53; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Starting back up off the 18 day MVA (33.65) Monday though on low volume. BMET is making the test after the breakout from a 6 month cup base. It never formed the handle, the lateral move just below the prior high that shakes out the last sellers, and this action after the breakout is doing that as the short term profit takers bail out. Accumulation in the base was a solid 9 to 5 (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). Need to see more volume on the move.
Volume: 1.46M Avg Volume: 2.008M
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=3M Target=$40 Stop=$33.44
POSITION: BIQ AZ - Jan. $32.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmet.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHL (China Mobile--$15; +0.13; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Broke out with a strong move two weeks back and has spent the past week testing the move. A very good test, holding its gains and slipping back to the 10 day MVA (14.71) on low volume. Monday CHL was up as volume moved back above average. This is a great place to enter positions, but we want to see it move on this good vooume.
Volume: 602.3K Avg Volume: 541.909K
BUY POINT: New: 15.08 (orig. $14.08) Volume=730K Target=New: 17.95 (orig. positions $16.88) Stop=$14.38
POSITION: CHL LV - Dec. $12.50c (89 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chl.html
Play Date: 09/29/2003
CVM (Cel-Sci Corp.--$1.43; +0.15; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CVM started back up on above average volume Monday in a successful breakout test that bounced off the 10 day MVA (1.29). Solid base and breakout, and still a buy on a further move from here on above average volume. Accumulation in the pattern is an outstanding 6 to 0. Super money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 1.225M Avg Volume: 727.454K
BUY POINT: New: 1.48 (orig. $1.17) Volume=900K Target=New positions: $1.88 (orig. positions: $1.56) Stop=$1.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvm.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
GSIC (GSI Commerce--$12.52; +0.01; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsic.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working in the handle of the 8 week base, holding over the 10 day MVA (12.29) on low, below average volume. Solid pattern, but need to see volume jump up and the move hold into the close.
Volume: 81.043K Avg Volume: 163.818K
BUY POINT: $12.62 Volume=242K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.68
POSITION: UGF AB - Jan. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsic.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
MANU (Manugistics Group--$6.45; +0.07; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manu.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the Monday low (6.27) and rebounded on rising though still below average volume. This is a nice test of the breakout from its 15 week cup with handle base showing steady 5 to 3 accumulation. Need to see sharp volume on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 662.173K Avg Volume: 851.318K
BUY POINT: $6.72 Volume=1.4M Target=$8.06 Stop=$6.21
POSITION: ZUQ AA - Jan. $5c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/manu.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
NANX (Nanophase Technologies--$7.5; +0.01; optionable): Mining: industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nanx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Continues to move over the 18 day MVA (7.18) on below average volume after looking as if it was going to make the move last Wednesday. During the 4 week lateral move over the 18 day MVA the accumulation is 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Volume was edging higher Monday, but need to see stronger trade on the break higher that holds to the close.
Volume: 92.965K Avg Volume: 113.454K
BUY POINT: New: 7.94 (orig. $7.88) Volume=200K Target=$9.45 Stop=$7.2
POSITION: NSY CU - Mar. $7.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nanx.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
PRGS (Progress Software--$23.01; -0.04; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PRGS continues its lateral handle formation, holding over the 18 day MVA (22.85) on very low, below average volume. A very nice handle to its 4 month base sporting excellent 6 to 2 accumulation. Have to be patient on these moves and let the breakout on volume show up before we rush in.
Volume: 59.399K Avg Volume: 171.318K
BUY POINT: $23.95 Volume=287K Target=$28.75 Stop=$22.71
POSITION: RGQ CX - Mar. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prgs.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
SNCI (Sonic Innovations--$7.69; +0.29; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snci.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SNIC did not come back to 7.12, but instead started higher Monday though volume was lower and still way below average. Strogn money flow and the 7 week flat base sports outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation. Strong money flow and relative strength made the breakout on the move, an indication of strength. No problem taking it on from here, but needs to show much stronger trade.
Volume: 28.109K Avg Volume: 80.59K
BUY POINT: Test 7.12, then $7.28 on the way back up. From here: 7.78 Volume=120K Target=$9.12 Stop=$7.06
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/snci.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$5.97; -0.04; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continues the lateral breakout test, holding over the 10 day MVA (5.96) on low, below average volume. SVNT broke out of a 12 week cup with handle base to start the month. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the pattern and a relative strength breakout as well, supporting the move. Very tight lateral range over the 10 day with some strong money flow. Waiting for the breakout on strong, above average volume.
Volume: 376.794K Avg Volume: 451.954K
BUY POINT: $6.38 Volume=678K Target=$7.98 Stop=$5.93
POSITION: QTG DA - April $5c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/18/2003
ESV (Ensco Intl.--$26.2; -0.04; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esv.html
STATUS: Put. Ran lower intraday (25.60) but managed to come back to close basically flat on very strong volume. Looks as if it may try to test the 200 day MVA (27) on more time. That would be a better entry point.
Volume: 2.683M Avg Volume: 1.606M
BUY POINT: Test of 27, then $26.72 on the way down. From close: $26.08 Volume=2M Target=$24 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ESV XE - Dec. $25p (-33 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esv.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
ODSY (Odyssey Healthcare--$28.82; +0.42; optionable): Long-term care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odsy.html
STATUS: Put. After rolling over at the 50 day MVA (29.66) Friday, ODSY made another attempt back up, rallying to the 10 day MVA (29.04) on slightly rising, above average volume. Looking for it to roll over from here or after another test of the 50 day MVA (29.66).
Volume: 575.028K Avg Volume: 496.454K
BUY POINT: Test 29.66, then 28.97 on the way down. From the close: $28.18 Volume=511K Target=$25 Stop=$29.75
POSITION: UPE MF - Jan. $30p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/odsy.html
Play Date: 10/14/2003
PIXR (Pixar--$67.7; -0.09; optionable): Animated graphics movies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Put. Broke below the 50 day MVA (69.04) but tried to hold the line Monday. May make another test of the 50 day before rolling over again.
Volume: 360.459K Avg Volume: 446.181K
BUY POINT: Test 69, then $68.44 on the way down. From the close: 67.48 Volume=600K Target=$65 Stop=$69.15
POSITION: PQJ WN - Nov. $70p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pixr.html
End part 2 of 3
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