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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Monday: ERES; JBLU; BCR; KFX; MOBE; NEXM; OLGC; ROST; SYK; USNA; ZMH
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/20/2003
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$38.28; +0.73; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA (36.90). NVLS is moving through a 4 month trading range between 33 and 40. It came up off the lows to start the month and again made it to 40 intraday. This pullback, however, it looks to be making a higher low over the 50 day. In these ranges, making a higher low at a key support level is often a prelude to a breakout from the range. With solid 7 to 3 accumulation in the base and the news from TXN, the odds of a breakout improved greatly. Looking for a strong, above average volume break higher from here.
Volume: 5.522M Avg Volume: 7.647M
BUY POINT: $39.28 Volume=9.5M Target=$46 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: NLQ AU - Jan. $37.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvls.html
Play Date: 10/20/2003
LNCR (Lincare Holdings--$39.26; +1.34; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: Breakout. LNCR is making the breakout move from a 10 month cup with handle base in September, rallying close to 39 on the high. It then came back to test the the 50 day MVA (36.50) on the lows and blasted off Thursday on strong volume. It was at it again Monday on even stronger trade, breaking to a new high as it did. Money flow is rising ahead of the stock and relative strength broke out as well. A solid stock throughout the long downtrend in the market, it is at it again. Outstanding 5 to 0 accumulation in the recent 11 week base. This is one that could turn into a split play.
Volume: 1.683M Avg Volume: 796.409K
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$47.35 Stop=$36.96
POSITION: LQN BH - Feb. $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lncr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/18/2003
NTE (Nam Tai Electronics--$32.48; +1.94; optionable): Hong Kong based telecom and consumer electronic equipment manufacturing and design consultant. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for1 split on 6-20-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $33. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-8-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nte.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Starting up off the 18 day MVA (30.65) Monday on rising, above average volume, NTE is approaching the buy point. Like to see that volume turning up as it nears the buy point. Nice first move off the short term MVA after a good 50 day MVA test.
Volume: 911.1K Avg Volume: 785.727K
BUY POINT: $32.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$39.55 Stop=$30.42
POSITION: NTE CF - Mar. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nte.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/18/2003
OTEX (Open Text--$43; -0.15; optionable): Internet software and services. Splits 2:1 on 10-29-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. OTEX is still making the test of the nice surge from early October. Monday OTEX tapped toward the 10 day MVA (41.82) on the low and bounced back up on some rising volume. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. It has made the test and now we look for a bit more volume on the move back up.
Volume: 245.853K Avg Volume: 380.681K
BUY POINT: $44.12 Volume=500K Target=$50.75 Stop=$41.38
POSITION: QFT BI - Feb. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/otex.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACV 08/04 Test 18 61.74 -0.18 58.45 67.45 155K 400K 60.95
Current.
ACV 07/19 BO 61.74 -0.18 54.8 65.85 155K 400K 60.95
Current.
ADIC 10/04 Cup hdl 17.57 +0.57 15.99 19.22 698K 1.2M 15.95
Current.
ADPT 10/04 Rv H&S 8.6 +0.1 8.86 10.65 302K 1.6M 8.32
Current.
APOL 08/14 Test 50 60.9 -0.18 65.88 75.45 2.5M 2M 65.12
Current.
APPB 10/13 BO 34.19 +0.04 34.62 41.55 197K 750K 32.78
Buy Not Issued.
AV 09/25 Flat 13.24 -0.28 11.38 13.65 3.7M 4.4M 12.55
Current.
AVP 08/14 Test 50 67.74 +0.12 66.68 76.32 599K 1.7M 66.34
Current.
BCR 10/04 Cup hdl 79.2 +0.96 73.05 83.55 411K 563K 75.96
BSX 09/29 Test 50 63.6 +0.12 65.45 69.45 1.9M 4.5M 65.02
Current.
CAND 10/02 Test BO 2.45 +0.05 2.36 3.08 117K 240K 2.28
Current.
CECO 07/31 FlyPlat 43.93 +0.76 42.86 47.62 1.4M 1M 46.78
Current.
CECO 07/19 Test 18 43.93 +0.76 37.88 43.28 1.4M 1.2M 46.78
Current.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 43.93 +0.76 31.28 36.73 1.4M 1M 46.78
Current.
CELL 10/02 Test 18 26.73 -0.16 23.25 28 790K 1M 24.68
Current.
CELL 09/20 FlyPlat 26.73 -0.16 22.57 27 790K 538K 24.68
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 26.73 -0.16 12.83 15.51 790K 225K 24.68
Current.
CFC 09/27 Cup hdl 96.39 +1.97 78.38 89.95 1.6M 3.4M 93.25
Current.
CHS 10/04 Dbl btm 35.8 +0.21 34.62 41.53 808K 1.8M 34.92
Current.
CHT 10/16 Cup hdl 15.11 -0.18 15.62 18.75 1.6M 1.1M 14.69
Buy Not Hit.
COCO 09/20 DB hdl 54.06 +0.36 59.42 69 566K 1.1M 56.42
Current.
COH 09/20 PreSplt 31.44 +0.01 30.06 34.55 1.7M 1.2M 30.12
Current.
COLM 08/14 Flat 58.47 +0.03 54.12 64.95 260K 475K 56.05
Current.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 9.8 -0.25 6.5 8.12 138K 200K 9.38
Current.
DCEL 10/07 Test 50 8.78 +0.02 9.15 10.98 684K 1.5M 8.64
Current.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 6.36 -0.43 4.32 5.38 1.2M 315K 5.96
Current.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 21.69 +0.21 22.25 26 780K 2.9M 20.69
DJO 09/11 Cup 17 0 14 16.45 97K 100K 15.68
Current.
EASI 10/14 A Wedge 65.39 +0.8 65.54 75 109K 287K 62.94
Buy Not Issued.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 56.6 +1.74 53.78 60 12M 9M 57.25
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 56.6 +1.74 40.04 46 12M 8M 57.25
Current.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 4.57 +0.04 4.3 5.22 308K 300K 4.24
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 12.29 +0.09 11.24 13.38 516K 350K 11.78
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 12.29 +0.09 9.33 11.12 516K 400K 11.78
Current.
ENMD 09/17 Cup 5.45 +0.34 5.39 6.72 778K 890K 4.86
Current.
ERES 09/27 Test 50 42.56 +2.46 36.88 43.94 582K 981K 39.22
Current.
ET 09/18 Cup hdl 10.88 +0.29 10.8 12.94 3.9M 7M 10.42
Current.
GGP 10/14 FlyPlat 74.87 -0.93 75.12 86.25 196K 275K 73.58
Current.
HAR 09/20 FlyPlat 109.56 +0.37 101.68 117 246K 374K 105.96
HOTT 10/04 Dbl btm 27.2 +0.58 25.39 30.38 605K 748K 26.71
Current.
IFIN 10/13 Rv H&S 34.2 -1.44 35.65 42.45 1.1M 862K 34.94
Current.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 30.76 -0.16 29.05 34.55 2.3M 4.7M 29.45
Current.
JADE 10/16 Cup hdl 4.41 -0.09 5.04 6.32 51K 235K 4.45
Buy Not Hit.
JAH 09/06 Cup hdl 37.08 +0.48 38.05 45.5 177K 270K 36.42
Buy Not Issued.
JBLU 10/11 Test BO 67.71 +2 68.12 78 1.5M 1.9M 65.05
Current.
JBLU 07/26 BO 67.71 +2 46.32 55.64 1.5M 1.5M 64.36
Current.
JCOM 08/12 PreSplt 43.84 -0.56 25.98 29 1.6M 1.4M 42.48
Current. Trading near 40 after hours on earnings. Pattern has
been to sell on the news and then rebound a few sessions
later.
KFX 09/27 FlyPlat 6.19 +0.15 5.24 6.62 246K 137K 5.55
Current.
KRON 10/07 PreSplt 56.32 +0.62 57.62 67.55 33K 239K 55.78
Current.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 76.52 -0.05 58.5 67.78 683K 610K 75.98
Current.
LNUX 10/11 Test 50 4.55 -0.26 5.35 6.75 1.6M 300K 4.98
Buy Not Issued.
LSI 09/29 Dbl Top 9.41 0 9.25 7.51 3.6M 6M 9.91
Current.
MBG 10/09 Test 50 39.4 -0.07 40.25 46.25 700K 1.8M 37.43
Buy Not Issued.
MERQ 10/02 Test 50 48.31 +0.77 49.85 55 2.9M 4.7M 47.55
Current.
MGAM 10/18 Test 18 38.04 -1.39 40.65 48.78 510K 825K 38.45
Buy Not Hit.
MOBE 09/15 Cup hdl 9.65 +0.38 8.7 10.88 876K 810K 8.83
Current.
MYL 09/30 Test 50 27.11 +0.1 25.93 29.72 1.4M 2.1M 27.18
Current.
NANO 10/15 Dbl btm 13.75 -0.26 15.19 18.34 227K 517K 13.96
Current.
NEXM 10/14 Cup hdl 5.43 +0.55 5.03 6.28 1.5M 292K 4.73
Current.
NSM 09/17 BO 38.57 +0.92 35.35 42 3.3M 5M 36.28
Current.
NTE 10/18 Test 18 32.48 +1.94 32.94 39.55 911K 1.2M 30.42
Buy Not Hit.
NTPA 09/11 FlyPlat 8.64 +0.19 7.85 9.85 131K 325K 8.24
Current.
NXG 10/15 Cup 1.93 +0.01 1.89 2.48 488K 684K 1.78
Current.
OLGC 10/18 Test BO 7.12 +0.53 7.15 8.58 1.3M 342K 6.52
Current.
ORBK 10/14 DB hdl 24.35 +0.1 24.31 29 122K 200K 22.89
Current.
ORLY 08/19 Flat 38.65 +0.07 39.48 47.05 80K 350K 38.68
Current.
OTEX 10/18 Test BO 43 -0.15 44.12 50.75 246K 500K 41.38
Buy Not Hit.
PKI 10/09 DB hdl 16.85 +0.19 17.18 20.65 621K 1.1M 16.21
Buy Not Issued.
PLAB 10/11 Test 50 21.53 -1.01 24.48 29.35 1.2M 1.1M 22.77
Buy Not Hit.
PSUN 10/11 DB hdl 22.8 -0.15 24.12 28.94 1.6M 2.3M 22.54
Buy Not Issued.
PTEK 08/26 Cup hdl 9.1 0 6.74 8.65 605K 276K 8.98
Current.
RI 09/30 Cup hdl 26.26 +0.02 27.72 33 173K 750K 25.78
RMD 10/11 FlyPlat 45.18 +0.17 46.82 53.88 121K 215K 44.66
Buy Not Hit.
ROST 09/18 Test 50 53.18 +1.26 52.95 62.55 1.2M 850K 51.12
Current.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 30.19 +0.13 30.35 36.75 2.2M 6M 29.25
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 30.19 +0.13 26.3 30.94 2.2M 6M 29.25
Current.
SEAC 09/06 Cup 16.02 0 12.37 14.85 430K 345K 14.92
Current.
SIGA 10/07 Cup hdl 2.43 +0.04 2.41 3.12 360K 450K 2.32
Current.
SINA 09/09 Cup 41.46 +1.46 36.15 41 7.1M 12M 38.94
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 41.46 +1.46 32.2 38.25 7.1M 10M 38.94
Current.
SYK 09/20 Flat 81.48 +2.5 78.97 90.25 1.2M 1.1M 77
Current.
SYMC 10/18 Flat 65.45 +0.5 66.88 76.94 1.6M 5M 64.25
Buy Not Hit.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 62.42 +0.53 61.51 73 143K 501K 61.32
Current.
TIWI 10/16 Cup hdl 5.58 +0.08 5.57 7 380K 350K 5.19
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 39.68 +1.24 28.06 31.44 692K 494K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 39.68 +1.24 26.62 30 692K 500K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 39.68 +1.24 23.42 27.62 692K 603K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 39.68 +1.24 21.88 26 692K 603K 33.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 39.68 +1.24 19.3 22.19 692K 577K 36.12
Current.
TSYS 10/14 Test 18 5.55 +0.17 5.05 6.15 1M 120K 4.72
Current.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 5.55 +0.17 3.54 4.45 1M 120K 4.72
Current.
UOPX 10/01 Test 18 64.8 -2.05 69.42 79.88 434K 328K 69.22
Exited.
UOPX 09/11 Test BO 64.8 -2.05 66.72 74 434K 352K 69.32
Exited.
UOPX 08/14 BO 64.8 -2.05 61.78 74 434K 300K 69.22
Exited.
URBN 10/18 Rv H&S 33.11 +0.61 33.61 40 844K 953K 31.36
Current.
USNA 10/14 Test BO 62.8 +3.8 55.58 63.94 334K 314K 52.96
Buy Not Issued.
UTSI 09/23 Put 33.28 -0.62 34.88 31.78 4M 5M 35.85
VLNC 10/18 Cup hdl 4.13 +0.03 4.55 5.68 272K 388K 4.23
Buy Not Hit.
VRTS 10/04 Test 50 34.09 +0.69 35.77 42.88 4.2M 1M 33.88
Current.
VSV 09/25 Test BO 5.76 -0.43 6.18 8.08 411K 300K 5.75
Buy Not Hit.
XRAY 08/28 Flat 44.43 -1.51 45.58 54.55 1.2M 625K 45.88
Exited.
YUM 10/01 Flat 33.4 +0.08 31.99 37.55 1.4M 1.6M 31.22
Buy Not Issued.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 59.23 +0.68 51.12 59.55 1.7M 3M 56.94
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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