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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: COH; COCO; APOL; ECIL; JBLU; MOBE; NTE; SEAC; SIGA; SYMC; TSCO; TSYS
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 10/21/2003
BLUD (Immucor--$29.89; +0.36; optionable): Diagnostic Substances. Splits 3:2 on 11-17-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. BLUD is working over the 18 day MVA (29.11) as it makes higher lows below a constant high at roughly 31. Volume started edging higher Tuesday, rallying to average as BLUD moved up off the 18 day. Looks as if it is getting ready to make the move higher on an early pre-split move.
Volume: 223.41K Avg Volume: 213.272K
BUY POINT: $30.22 Volume=320K Target=$34.78 Stop=$29.08
POSITION: QMQ LF - Dec. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/21/2003
ARQL (Arqule--$5.4; +0.12; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arql.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a nice, quiet handle to an 18 week base showing excellent 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Moreover, volume action in the base is just as it should be, drying up at the bottom and then surging higher the past 6 weeks as it turned up to form the right side of the base. Now it is holding over the 10 day MVA (5.24) as it tests back on low volume. Relative strength is solid. Looking now for a strong, above average volume move over the high in the handle.
Volume: 102.828K Avg Volume: 191.363K
BUY POINT: $5.72 Volume=287K Target=$7.15 Stop=$5.32
POSITION: ARQ LA - Dec. $5c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/arql.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
SCKT (Socket Communications--$3.4; +0.4; no options): PC networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sckt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice 11-week base that is in the process of making the breakout. Accumulation in the pattern is a strong 4 to 1, and volume action in the base is solid: very low at the bottom and then starting higher as it moved up to form the right side of the base. After a nice, lower volume pullback to test the 10 day MVA (2.92) and form the handle, it shot higher Tuesday on outstanding volume. Looking to move in on this breakout.
Volume: 697.295K Avg Volume: 350.727K
BUY POINT: $3.52 Volume=526K Target=$4.45 Stop=$3.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sckt.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
STLW (Stratos Lightwave--$6.03; 0; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stlw.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Forming the handle to its nice 12 week base showing excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). It is moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (5.96) on very low volume and in a very tight range right at the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern. Excellent money flow leading the way higher, and we are looking for the stock to move up with it, but it needs to deliver the volume.
Volume: 52.9K Avg Volume: 88K
BUY POINT: $6.29 Volume=132K Target=$7.85 Stop=$5.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stlw.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$42.95; +1.15; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. VSEA has formed a sweet little 8 week pattern that formed over the 50 day MVA (39.36) on the low, using the 18 day MVA (41.39) as the support for the shoulders. Accumulation is not huge but it is positive at 2 to 1 with solid money flow and relative strength. It is poised to make a move and it has room to run as well. This is one that could turn into a a pre-announcement play.
Volume: 530.385K Avg Volume: 752.772K
BUY POINT: $43.78 Volume=1.1M Target=$52 Stop=$41.32
POSITION: UES BI - Feb. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/16/2003
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$15.29; +0.18; no options): Taiwan telecom services provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After a quick test of the 10 day MVA (15.09) it looks as if CHT is ready to try a breakout move. A new issue in July, it immediately fell into the current 12 week base sporting excellent 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume verssu 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow is still solid and now it needs to provide some upside volume.
Volume: 470.3K Avg Volume: 1.012M
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cht.html
Play Date: 10/16/2003
JADE (LJ Intl.--$4.43; +0.01; no options): Jewelry design, branding & manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jade.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Holding the 18 day MVA (4.35) with a nice, tight doji on below average volume as it looks to be finishing the handle to its 12 week base that has used the 50 day MVA (3.94) as the bottom. Accumulation is an excellent 4 to 0, money flow is surging, and relative strength is ready for a breakout. It has made the final test and now we just need to see the breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 66.816K Avg Volume: 139.954K
BUY POINT: $5.04 Volume=235K Target=$6.32 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jade.html
Play Date: 09/11/2003
NTPA (Netopia--$8.9; +0.26; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntpa.html
STATUS: Flat base. NTPA is moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (8.59) in a range between 8.50 and 9 for the past two weeks, consolidating the nice early October break higher. Excellent relative strength, and a good volume move Tuesday on a much stronger shot of volume. Getting ready for the next move in the breakout.
Volume: 272.545K Avg Volume: 216.363K
BUY POINT: New: $9.42 (orig. $7.85) Volume=325K Target=New positions: $11.30 (orig $9.85) Stop=$8.24
POSITION: NQD LU - Dec. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntpa.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$64.37; +1.95; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. TARO shot higher on a breakout from a nice 4 month cup base, rallying over 65. It has made a test of the 18 day MVA (61.07) and the breakout and Tuesday jumped off that level on rising, average trade. Looks ready to continue the move with a successful breakout test. Good point to add to positions or start a new one.
Volume: 317.514K Avg Volume: 330.59K
BUY POINT: New: $65.12 (orig. $61.51) Volume=501K Target=$73 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: QTT AL - Jan. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/taro.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
VLNC (Valence Technology--$4.2; +0.07; no options): R&D for lithium ion mobile communications batteries.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlnc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still forming the handle to its 4.5 month base showing solid 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume). It has held the 18 day MVA (4.01) on very low trade, putting the finishing touches on the base. Now al it needs to do is start the breakout move on big volume, putting that storng accumulation to work.
Volume: 145.6K Avg Volume: 257.59K
BUY POINT: $4.55 Volume=388K Target=$5.68 Stop=$4.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vlnc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of action this week with earnings season hitting its peak. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements.
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: No split announced 10-07-03.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: Forecast 10-15-03 after the close. No split but huge earnings and the stock shot higher.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03 before the market opens with earnings.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03 after the market closes.
ETN: No split with earnings on 10-14. Strong move, however, and looking now at 10-22 with a board meeting.
GDW: Forecast 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. No split announced, but some strong earnings.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
MERQ: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-23-03 after the close.
NTE: Forecast 10-27-03 before the open.
ORLY: Forecast 10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: Forecast 10-16-03 after the market closes. No split but some solid earnings.
SYMC: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close.
UOPX: No split with earnings on 10-7.
VRTS: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03 after the close. Exited Monday and it was in serious trouble Tuesday.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$57.83; -0.64; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 at stock price of $21.84. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continues to move over the 10 day MVA (57.48) but below 59, building pressure for a break higher. Excellent money flow and relative strength. Looking for a breakout over that level on much stronger trade to move in for additional positions.
Volume: 142.268K Avg Volume: 209.318K
BUY POINT: New: $59.25 (orig. $54.12) Volume=475K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.72
POSITION: TQQ AK - Jan. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
JAH (Jarden--$37.82; +0.74; no options): Rubber & plastics. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 2 for1 split on 5-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $37.10. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the super move higher on the breakout in mid-September, JAH has come back to test the move and is now rallying back over the short term MVA (37.07 is the 10 day MVA) on rising volume. A nice though long test, but now looks ready to make the move higher. Want to see it get over the near resistance at 38.22. Solid 4 to 0 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 198K Avg Volume: 189.818K
BUY POINT: $38.32 Volume=270K Target=$45.5 Stop=$36.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 10/02/2003
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$50.54; +2.23; optionable): Technical software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $87. It has announced prior to that in the $45 to $50 range, so it is in the game. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company had sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After the breakout from the reverse head and shoulders in September, MERQ got a bit rocky, but it has been making higher lows below a constant top at 52. A very nice recovery this week, moving up off the 50 day (47.10), posting a solid move Tuesday. Accumulation remains solid and relative strength is ready for the next breakout. Looking at some more positions ahead of earnings if it can continue the move.
Volume: 2.881M Avg Volume: 2.938M
BUY POINT: New: 50.75 (orig. $49.85) Volume=4.7M Target=$59 Stop=$47.55
POSITION: RQB AJ - Jan. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/merq.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
NTE (Nam Tai Electronics--$34.49; +2.01; optionable): Hong Kong based telecom and consumer electronic equipment manufacturing and design consultant. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for1 split on 6-20-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $33. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-8-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nte.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Tuesday NTE blasted off the 18 day MVA on an outstanding volume surge, giving us a great entry into the play. A strong move, but still a buy on a move over the recent highs (34.89).
Volume: 1.933M Avg Volume: 792.545K
BUY POINT: New: $35.05 (orig. $32.94) Volume=1.2M Target=$39.55 Stop=$30.42
POSITION: NTE CG - Mar. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nte.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
SYMC (Symantec--$67.37; +1.92; optionable): Internet software and services. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 12-17-01 at a stock price of $67.20. The annual shareholder meeting was on 8-21-03 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Started the move on rising, above average volume, another good entry to a new play. Nice jump off the 18 day MVA, continuing the breakout move from its 7.5 month flat base in late August. Closed off the high (68.28) but still a solid move and looking for more. Still a buy on this move as it heads to the earnings announcement after the close Wednesday. A good pattern as it has moved laterally into earnings and has not run up ahead of the news.
Volume: 3.803M Avg Volume: 3.581M
BUY POINT: New: 67.78 (orig. $66.88) Volume=5M Target=$76.94 Stop=$64.25
POSITION: SYQ AM - Jan. $65c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/symc.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$35.29; +1.2; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. VRTS has formed a nice accumulation pattern the past 7 weeks, using the 50 day MVA (33.15) as the bottom of the base. After a quick test of that level on the Monday low, VRTS bounced to form the right shoulder. Looking for a breakout over 36 for new positions, but would loke a few more before the earnings after the Wednesday close.
Volume: 4.719M Avg Volume: 6.437M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $35.77 Breakout: $36.25 Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.88
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 09/30/2003
MYL (Mylan Labs--$28.04; +0.93; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myl.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA (27.31). A bit rocky after the split, MYL came back to test the 18 day MVA to end last week. That appears to have shaken out the last sellers as it showed a doji at that level Monday and started back up Tuesday with a solid price gain on solid volume. Looks ready for the next move.
Volume: 1.616M Avg Volume: 2.215M
BUY POINT: New: $28.44 (orig. $25.93) Volume=2.1M Target=New positions: 34 (orig. positions: $29.72) Stop=$27.18
POSITION: MYL AY - Jan. $27.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/myl.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$22.89; +0.09; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This looks loke a final shakout in the handle as PSUN trades below the 18 day MVA (22.81) intraday and then recovers to hold that level. If it is a shakeout we will know soon because it will jump higher on stronger trade. That will be our signal.
Volume: 1.176M Avg Volume: 1.875M
BUY POINT: $24.12 Volume=2.3M Target=$28.94 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: PVQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Play Date: 09/23/2003
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$32.8; -0.31; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Tried the breakout Monday but just could not hold the move. Gapped higher Tuesday but gave it back on lower volume. Still working laterally after the big run from a late September breakout from a short base. Still working on the lateral consolidation over the 10 day MVA (31.77). Will wait again and see if it gives another high volume move that sticks heading into the close.
Volume: 506.319K Avg Volume: 702.09K
BUY POINT: New: 33.05 (orig. $26.55) Volume=953K Target=New positions: $38 (orig. $31.15) Stop=$31.04
POSITION: URQ LE - Dec. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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