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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance Levels
Nasdaq: Closed at 1988.63.
Resistance: 2052 to 2077 is the bottom of the trading range. 2145 is the 50 day MVA.
Support: 2000 failed to hold. Now it is 1961 to 1852.
S&P 500: Closed at 1208.43.
Resistance: 1232 to 1240 are the bottoms of the trading range. Then 1250.
Support: 1200 is the next level. Head and shoulders bottom and the breakout support from the double bottom pattern is right at 1182.
Dow: Closed at 10,645.38.
Resistance: 10,800 where the down trendline between the January 2000 all-time high and the September high is currently (and the 50 day MVA is at 10,792.46 as well). 11,000 is possible resistance after that. Then 11,196.53 (the last top). After that, 11,350.
Support: Still trying to hold the line at the 200 day MVA at 10,630.11. After that, 10,400 is the point of consummation for the head and shoulders pattern and some previous lows.
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
6-19-01
Housing starts for May (8:30): 1.60M expected versus 1.609M prior.
Building permits for May (8:30): 1.630M expected versus 1.587M prior.
6-20-01
Leading Economic Indicators for May (10:00): 0.2% expected versus 0.1% prior.
Treasury Budget for May (2:00): -$17.5B expected versus -$3.6B prior.
6-21-01
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 430,000 expected versus 428,000 prior.
Trade balance for April (8:30): -$30.9B expected versus -$31.2B prior
Current Account for Q1 (10:00): -$106.0B expected versus -$115.3B prior.
Philly Fed for June (12:00): -10.0 expected versus -8.8 prior.
TEAM TRADES
KG: Good pattern, and it started moving up sharply early in the session, bucking the market trend. It hit our buy point in the first hour, but we decided to hold off and see how the day unfolded. Patient, and we had all day as the stock was pulling back right after hitting 55.72 at that time. It spent the next couple of hours testing the previous close, and started moving back up off of that point (54.40). Volume was good early, and it remained solid throughout the day, shooting up on the moves higher. Toward the end of the session the stock was running back up to the buy point and we were ready to take a partial position as it did so. It hit 55.70, but then pulled back as fast as it did. It tested 55, and turned back up in the last 20 minutes of the session. The spread was anywhere from 9 cents to 5 cents. We saw a bid of 55.25 by 55.30, and we dropped an order in at the ask. That was good enough and the stock then continued to move up a bit to the close. This was below the actual breakout point, but we liked the high volume and the continued run at the breakout. It was also a partial position that we stand ready to exit if the big breakout does not come. If it does, we will be in for more shares. This is a more aggressive play, but we were getting the breakout move we wanted earlier and later, and indeed felt we were going to get one at the close. We think it will come tomorrow.
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THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: KG made a good, solid move today (check the weekend report for buy point and breakout volume, the latter of which the stock exceeded today), and OCLR made a nice move; we will look for volume to support it tomorrow. EBAY pulled back on lower volume, still holding its ascending wedge pattern. KKD broke out and EFX made another strong move. ORLY also broke resistance on stronger volume; it has now cleared its base.
Best Plays:
1) CHS: Looking interesting here.
2) WM: Still a buy on this breakout.
3) LOW: Broke resistance on stronger volume.
4) ANF: Looks good on this move up from the test of support.
New:
CHS (Chico's Fas--$33.29; +1.39; optionable (CHS): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: The stock is off a April and May run that took it to a high of 36.70, consolidating above the 18 day MVA (32.24) on below average volume. For the last 8 days the stock formed a short ranging pattern above the support level, and today just broke over resistance (33.20) in that pattern as volume inched higher (337,200; avg. 470,363). CHS pulled off the high of 33.85, but we will see if stronger volume can assert the stock for a breakout move here. Money flow is solid and relative strength has moved out ahead of price. Target: $45.
BUY POINT: Over 35.06 on volume of 455,000 or better. Stop: 32.61 (32.24, 18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $30 calls to buy (COJ HF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chs.html
WM (Washington Mutual--$37.90; +0.82; optionable (WM): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wm.html
STATUS: The stock is breaking out of an ascending wedge that is part of a larger, 5.5-month base; the wedge formed at the upper right side of the base, and the stock on stronger volume broke over the buy point of 37.24 (volume was up to 5.7 million; avg. 3.8 million). Remains a buy on this move, as long as volume kicks in to meet the average for a breakout. The stock shows good money flow. Target: $43.
BUY POINT: Up to 39.10 on the breakout. Stop: 35.25 (50 day MVA, 35.35).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $35 calls to buy (WM JG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wm.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS:
New Leaders: CPN, SGR, ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS, NVDA, BRKS
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
ESRX pulled back on lower volume as expected; it is headed for support at the 10 day MVA, not far away. The stock is splitting June 25 and it is unlikely to run all the way up to that date. We'd rather see a correction before that, then get in and ride it to the split. NVDA pulled back, too, closing below support on lower volume. SEBL was running up after hours on the ORCL news.
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$74.97; -0.03; optionable (ACS): Computer Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: ACS made a good move Friday, which moved the stock back over the 18 and 10 day MVAs; today's low of 74.01 tested the 18 day, and the 10 day MVA is just under the closing price (74.75), a very tight doji on the small pullback. Volume was back down below average at 323,800 (avg. 518,409) on the move, suggesting the stock can hold at the 10 day MVA for a move back up on stronger volume. We like to watch for that after such light volume days on the market, especially a Monday when volumes, as on Fridays, can be lower. June high is 77.68. ACS shows strong money flow, and currently relative strength is out ahead of price. Target: $81.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here or the 10 day MVA on strong volume. Stop: 69.52 (just below the 50 day MVA at 71.09). New high: Over 78 on average or better volume. Stop: 72.45 (18 day MVA, 73.99).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $65 or $70 calls to buy (ACS JM or JN). New high: Stock and/or October $70 calls to buy (ACS JN).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/acs.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Newer members of the portfolio are LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. Currently existing members are EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST.
THQI ran up today but pulled off the high even as volume was higher. Volume continues to drop off for LNCR so we are looking for a test of support (pullback).
LOW (Lowe's--$74.61; +2.23; optionable (LOW): Retail: Home Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Made a good move off the 10 day MVA (72.70) on rising volume of 2.47 million (avg. 3 million), to a new all-time closing high. The stock was forming a little wedging pattern above that support over the last few sessions, and hit our buy point (over the previous high of 74) on this move. Looking for a continued move up, with volume breaking over average levels. Huge money flow. Target: $85.
BUY POINT: Up from here on average or better volume. Stop: 69.39.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $70 calls to buy (LOW JN).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/low.html
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$42.75; +1.84; optionable (ANF): Retail: Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Made a move from support (the 18 day MVA at 41.25) on a pop in volume to 1.2 million (avg. 1.5 million). We have been watching the stock after it pulled off the May breakout high (47.50) and consolidated above the support level as volume stayed mostly below average (volume spike 8 days ago). We will look for a continued move up from here after this test of the breakout. Money flow is strong, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price. That is bullish. Target: $52
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 43.35 (recent high) on volume in the range of 1.5 million. Stop: 40.32 (10 day MVA, 41.60).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/anf.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
No reports on stocks in this portfolio tonight.
Puts: SEBL was a potential put play from the weekend report, but it did not give us that bounce higher to set up the put play. It moved up from the 38 level at the close to over $40 after hours. We will see if this is the catalyst to send it over resistance at 45, but again, we will need other companies to come forth as well.
CHKP (Check Point--$43.04; -1.36; optionable (KEQ): Computer Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chkp.html
STATUS: Tapped just under the 10 day MVA (46.76) on the high, then turned back down as volume dropped way off to 7.3 million (avg. 13.7 million). The stock is holding above support at the 42.85 level, and after the ORCL news it was up to almost $45 after hours. Time to exit positions and see if it can run and then turn back down at the 50 level.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chkp.html
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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