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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
6-19-01
Housing starts for May (8:30): 1.60M expected versus 1.609M prior.
Building permits for May (8:30): 1.630M expected versus 1.587M prior.
6-20-01
Leading Economic Indicators for May (10:00): 0.2% expected versus 0.1% prior.
Treasury Budget for May (2:00): -$17.5B expected versus -$3.6B prior.
6-21-01
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 430,000 expected versus 428,000 prior.
Trade balance for April (8:30): -$30.9B expected versus -$31.2B prior
Current Account for Q1 (10:00): -$106.0B expected versus -$115.3B prior.
Philly Fed for June (12:00): -10.0 expected versus -8.8 prior.
TEAM TRADES
KG: Good pattern, and it started moving up sharply early in the session, bucking the market trend. It hit our buy point in the first hour, but we decided to hold off and see how the day unfolded. Patient, and we had all day as the stock was pulling back right after hitting 55.72 at that time. It spent the next couple of hours testing the previous close, and started moving back up off of that point (54.40). Volume was good early, and it remained solid throughout the day, shooting up on the moves higher. Toward the end of the session the stock was running back up to the buy point and we were ready to take a partial position as it did so. It hit 55.70, but then pulled back as fast as it did. It tested 55, and turned back up in the last 20 minutes of the session. The spread was anywhere from 9 cents to 5 cents. We saw a bid of 55.25 by 55.30, and we dropped an order in at the ask. That was good enough and the stock then continued to move up a bit to the close. This was below the actual breakout point, but we liked the high volume and the continued run at the breakout. It was also a partial position that we stand ready to exit if the big breakout does not come. If it does, we will be in for more shares. This is a more aggressive play, but we were getting the breakout move we wanted earlier and later, and indeed felt we were going to get one at the close. We think it will come tomorrow.
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THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
All prices reflect prices at the close on Monday.
BEST PLAYS: LZ was removed this weekend; it made a move up today but on low volume; please see the 6-13 report for buy point. HB shot up again but still needs a pullback. Lots of other good-looking plays; of those, ELN from Thursday's update report continued its breakout today, CRL moved up, and OCLR made a move out of the pennant, but volume really needs to come in to support a breakout. The rest are listed below:
Best Plays:
1) UNFI: On the move.
2) FITB: Sure looks good here.
3) FISV: Breaking out but needs a push after this lower-volume day.
4) BGEN: Still holding its pattern.
5) EBAY: Can bounce back up in the pattern.
6) AVIR: Another that can bounce from support.
7) WFMI: Still shaking them out.
BREAKOUTS: HB ran up nicely Monday but still will need a pullback sooner rather than later.
Continued:
UNFI (United Natural Foods--$18.41; +0.46; no options): Food wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unfi.html
STATUS: UNFI moved up from the lateral consolidation formed over the last week, as volume rose toward average levels (127,800; avg. 143,045). Looking for a breakout over the handle high of 19.25. Solid money flow and great buying. Target: $21-22.
BUY POINT: 19.38, on volume of 215,000 or better. Stop: 18.02, near the 10 day MVA (18.12).
POSITION: Stock.
TESTS OF THE BREAKOUT: Some of these stocks are moving back on low volume to test the breakout. We often take profits on option plays when they start to pullback on the breakout move and then get back in when the stock bounces up off of the breakout point. This second move is where some of the biggest gains are made.
Back on:
BORL (Borland--$13.38; -0.02; optionable (BLQ): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/borl.html
STATUS: Pulled back a bit from Friday's strong move up from a test of the 18 day MVA (today at 12.18). Volume was lower at 1.1 million (avg. 892,000), and the stock tested the 10 day MVA on the low (12.84) then bounced back up to close with a tight doji. We are looking for a move over the high of 13.84; we will see if the doji can hold for a move up from here. Great money flow and buying. Target: $18.
BUY POINT: Over 13.84 on volume in the range of 1.5 million. Stop: 12.83 (10 day MVA, 12.71).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $10 calls to buy (BLQ JB).
Continued: Watchlist: Keeping DFXI on a watch.
FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$59.03; -0.42; optionable (FTQ):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
STATUS: Down to the 18 day MVA on the closing price (59.05) as volume dropped back from Friday's spike to 1.3 million (avg. 1.8 million). The stock is in the handle of its 6.5-month base, and if it is going to move, it looks like now is the time as it looks to be shaking out the last sellers. Great money flow, and buying looks good. Target: $65-68.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 61.24, on volume of 2.7 million or better. Stop: 50 day MVA, 57.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (TTQ HK).
HET (Harrah's Entertainment--$37.78; -0.04; optionable (HET): Leisure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/het.html
STATUS: Moved up last week after testing the breakout but pulled back immediately to consolidate above the 10 day MVA (35.38). Volume keeps dropping, down to 648,000 (avg. 788,000). It is tightening up for the next jump higher and it may retest the 10 day MVA (like it did on today's low), but we are looking for a break over the recent high of 38.29. Huge money flow and high relative strength. Target: $43-45.
BUY POINT: Over 38.29 on volume in the range of 875,000. Stop: 35.61 (50 day MVA, 35.30).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (HET HG).
MOVING AVERAGE BOUNCES:
A revisited stock (from the weekend):
BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond--$29.87; +0.62; optionable (BHQ): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Gapped higher and broke above resistance (10 and 18 day MVAs at 29.76) to make a high of 30.30, but lower volume (2 million; avg. 3.4 million) brought price back down, though it held above the support of those two moving averages. This is the move we were looking for and want to see volume roll back in the break the stock back over the high. We were looking for a continued bounce from the 50 day MVA, and the stock did just that.
Money flow is strong and relative strength out ahead of price. Initial target: $35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 30.30 on volume in the range of 2.7 million. Stop: 28.18 (50 day MVA, 28.74).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (BHQ HE).
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
Ascending wedges:
New (from the weekend):
FISV (Fiserv--$58.55; +1.38; optionable (FQV): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
STATUS: Broke out of its ascending wedge (buy point 58.28) but volume slacked back to 856,700 (avg. 1.5 million). Still, cannot complain about continued solid volume. The pattern is in the upper right side of an 8.5-month base. Today was a low-volume day overall, so we are looking for higher volume to roll in and support a strong breakout. Shows uptrending money flow since the first of April, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price. Target: $64.
BUY POINT: A buy from here up to 61.19 on the breakout, but on at least minimum breakout volume of 2 million or better. Stop: 54.45 (50 day MVA, 53.99).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (FQV IK).
Continued: Two stocks from Thursday's update report:
BGEN (Biogen--$64.51; -0.42; optionable (BGQ): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Hit a high of 66 (just over the buy point of 65.99) but pulled back down to close above support (10 day MVA, 64.11). That was after the low of 63.70 tested support at the 18 day MVA, and it is to the stock's credit that it moved back over the 10 day MVA since volume was lower (2.3 million; avg. 3.3 million) and is still holding the great-looking ascending wedge. Can bounce back from the moving average. Strong money flow. Target: $75 (high at the start of the 3.5-month base).
BUY POINT: Over 66 on volume of 4.5 million or better. Stop: 60.79 (200 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (BGQ JL).
EBAY (Ebay Inc--$62.98; -2.14; optionable (QXB): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Still holding its ascending wedge pattern, pulling back from the high of 65.55 (that tested upper resistance in the pattern) and testing support on the low at the 18 day MVA (62.19). Volume was lower at 5.5 million (avg. 6 million), so we look for the 18 day to hold the stock for a bounce back. Still looking for the breakout; the pattern formed just above mid-range in the right side of EBAY's 9-month base. Strong money flow and good buying. Target: $77-78 (highs at the start of the base).
BUY POINT: Breakout: 66.63, on volume of 8 million or better. Stop: 61.96 (18 day MVA, 62.19).
POSITION: Breakout: Stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (QXB JK).
Pennant:
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$24.78; +1.67; optionable (QLO): Health Service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: Made a big breakout from its pennant today, but volume did not follow, coming in much lower and below average at 85,700 (average 126,000). Looking for more volume to propel it higher, but with the low volume protect positions and watch for the stock to hold the 24 range on a pullback (24.43 former intraday pattern high). Still looks good, with great relative strength, huge money flow and strong buying, but needs volume now. Target: $30.
BUY POINT: A move up from here with more volume. Otherwise we will look to add to positions after a pullback that holds the 24 range, looking for above average volume on the move back up. Stop: 22.32 (18 day MVA, 22.70). From here: A move up with volume of 170,000 or better; a buy on the breakout up to 25.25.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or October $20 calls to buy (QLO JD).
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
Watchlist: Keep an eye on RE; it is holding support and showing good price/volume action in its base. BVF is holding support in its base after dipping back a bit far on the test of its breakout.
New:
GDW (Golden West--$64.56; +0.55; optionable (GDW): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdw.html
STATUS: Watching this stock for a while as it crawls up its short term MVAs in the middle right side of its 5.5-month base. The stock formed in the last several days a small ascending wedge pattern with upper resistance at the 65 level. Monday the stock tested support at the 18 day MVA again (63.40) on the low, then moved up on slightly lower volume of 507,300 (avg. 716,000). Looking for the breakout over today's high of 65.10. The stock shows good money flow and decent buying. Initial target: $71 (highs at the start of the base).
BUY POINT: 65.23, on volume of 967,000 or better. Stop: 60.66 (50 day MVA, 61.79).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (GDW HM).
Continued from last week's update reports:
AVIR (Aviron--$58.00; -2.41; optionable (QCV): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avir.html
STATUS: The stock is in a 5.5-month base and appears to have support in the handle at the 18 day MVA (57.10), near which it tapped at its low of 57.30 today. The drop was on low volume (168,600; average 522,400), and looks to be shaking out the last sellers. The handle high is 64.36, and the stock shows excellent money flow and buying. Target: $71-74.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding the 18 day, a move back over 61 on above average volume. Stop: 56.73. Breakout: 64.49, on volume of 784,000 or better. Stop: 59.98.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (QCV HK). Breakout: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (QCV HL).
WPI (Watson Pharmaceuticals--$61.56; +0.06; optionable (WPI): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wpi.html
STATUS: In a 7.5-month cup with handle that is part of a larger base with highs at 71.50. The stock is moving along its 10 day MVA (61.24) at the moment, tapping up in the 62 range at recent highs (and showing another doji Monday). Volume is below average on the lateral move (down to 660,000 today; average 899,000), and we are looking for a strong move up toward the breakout, with the handle high at 64.10. The stock shows great money flow and strong buying, with high relative strength. Target: $71-74.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 62.25 on above average volume. Stop: 57.90. Breakout: 64.23, on volume of 1.35 million or better. Stop: 59.73 (just under the 18 day, at 60.04).
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (WPI HL). Breakout: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (WPI HL).
New (from the weekend):
IDPH (Idec Pharmaceuticals--$71.47; -1.53; optionable (IHD): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idph.html
STATUS: The stock is moving up in the handle to a 6-month base (high at the start of the base is 77.65). It found support at the 18 day MVA (66.92) before making a move up the past week, but after hitting 74.91 at its high today (handle high 75) the stock pulled back on lower volume to close, tapping its 10 day MVA at its low of 70.31. This is not the kind of explosive move you want to see on a breakout attempt. Can retest the 10 day MVA before making a breakout move. The stock shows solid money flow, relative strength and decent buying. Target: $83-86.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a strong bounce from the 10 day MVA (69.65) on average or better volume. Stop: 64.77. Breakout: 75.13, on volume of 6 million or more (average 4 million; today down to 3.2 million). Stop: 69.87.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $70 calls to buy (IHD JN).
CRL (Charles River Labs--$32.20; +1.10; optionable (CRL): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crl.html
STATUS: In a cup with handle of 8.5 months. The stock tested its 50 day MVA (28.49) recently and made a couple of good moves up the last two sessions, but showed a topping sign today when it pulled back off of its intraday high of 33 to close. If it drops back we will look for it to hold support at its 10 day MVA (30.50) for a continuation of the move up toward the handle high of 34.54. The stock shows strong money flow and relative strength that has broken out ahead of price. Target: $38-40.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move up on continued strong volume (down to 230,500 today; average 199,000). Stop: 29.95 (50 day, 28.49). Pullback: On a move up after a lower volume pullback that holds the 10 day MVA. Stop: At or near the 50 day MVA at 28.49.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (CRL HE; no open interest).
A trading range:
XLNX (Xilinx--$41.39; -0.70; optionable (XLQ): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: The stock is trading roughly in a range between 40 and 50 since early May, the entire pattern below the 200 day MVA (53.75). The stock found support at the 40 range Friday after tapping below 39 intraday, and today hit up to the 10 day MVA at its high of 43.42 before retreating to close down for the day. Not a strong move, with volume sharply down at 4.57 million (average 8.8 million), but we are looking for a run back up to 50 in the range.
BUY POINT: Over the 50 day MVA (43.96) on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $40 calls to buy (XLQ IH).
Continued:
BLPG (Boron Lepore--$14.10; -0.33; no options): Diversified services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blpg.html
STATUS: The stock broke support of the 10 day MVA (12.58) in the handle, and on stronger volume closed down just atop the 18 day MVA (14.01). That was up from a low of 13.80, so we will see if the 18 day can hold it here for a move back up. The stock is hitting staunch resistance at 14.50, which it has hit 8 times this month. The higher, above average selling volume in the handle is not what we want to see. Needs to give us a strong breakout. Volume was at 136,800 (avg. 88,000). Huge money flow. Target: $16-17.
BUY POINT: 14.88, on volume of 132,000 or better. Stop: 13.90 (18 day MVA, 14.01).
POSITION: Stock.
WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.97; +0.22; optionable (FMQ): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Still in the 5.5-month cup with handle base, and the handle is developing into a lengthy flat base. Volume continues to be very low in the consolidation, down to 139,100 today (average 483,200) as the stock moved back up a bit from its 18 day MVA (27.64). We will continue to look for the stock to make a move up in the handle to breakout. Relative strength is ahead of price. Target: $35-38.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 29.55, on volume of 725,000 or more. Stop: 27.48.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (FMQ HE).
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$63.93; +0.94; optionable (DGX): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Gapped down again to open but managed to push up on the day, closing back over its 10 day MVA (63.52) and reaching 64.95 at its intraday high. The stock has been proceeding upward in a stair-step fashion, and this most recent pullback after its split has held the late-May consolidation range. Volume was a bit down but remained strong at 511,800 (average 397,700), so we will look for a continued strong move up toward a breakout from its 5.5-month cup with handle (handle high 70.15). Money flow is solid and buying decent, with relative strength out ahead of price. Target: $75-77.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 67 on increased volume. Stop: 62.31 (18 day MVA, 63).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (DGX HM).
Put:
PDLI (Protein Design--$76.46; -1.53; optionable (RPV): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: Made the move back below the 18 day MVA (77.46) we were looking for, but volume was not strong, coming in lower at 979,700 (average 1.8 million). We can still look at a put in a weak market, looking for strong selling volume on PDLI, after a possible retest of the 18 day MVA or the 200 day MVA (78.27). The target on a put is 70, at the 50 day MVA (currently 69.48).
BUY POINT: After a test of the 18 day or a 200 day MVA, a drop back down on increased selling volume near the average. If the move is not strong, the stock can find potential support in the 72.25 range.
POSITION: August $90 puts to buy (RPV TR; low open interest).
Good Investing!
Your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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