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stock option, stock information
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) PHTN: Breaking the 50 day MVA after a double top.
2) PNR: Doji below the 200 day MVA.
3) ABMD: Still a very solid consolidation.
4) ASL: Trying to make the move.
5) SNCI: New buy point as it heads for a breakout over 8.
6) TARO: Showing excellent action.
7) ESV: Hanging on by its nails.
8) ODSY: Ready to continue the trend lower.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/22/2003
ARDI (At Road, Inc.--$15.15; +0.35; optionable): PC information technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ardi.html
STATUS: Flat base. ARDI is holding up very well, moving through a 3 month base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to breakout as well. ARDI surged to 15.79 intraday but then gave a big chunk of it back. Earnings are out Thursday after the close, so there is some news risk associated. A strong pattern and solid performer, we are looking at positions on the breakout.
Volume: 1.555M Avg Volume: 477.909K
BUY POINT: $15.38 Volume=717K Target=$18.45 Stop=$14.32
POSITION: UDH DC - Apr. $15c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ardi.html
Play Date: 10/22/2003
GBN (Great Basin Gold--$1.68; +0.02; no options): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gbn.html
STATUS: Cup. GBN is working through a 6 week cup base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). GBN has jumped up to form the right side of the cup the past week, rallying on very strong trade. It has stalled slightly at the prior high at 1.70. This is where a stock will typically take a breather and move laterally and slightly lower to shake out those that bought at the prior high and are frustrated it is falling back at the same point. When they are gone demand outstrips supply and the stock makes the breakout. Great money flow on top of the accumulation. GBN was new issue in July. We love buying into new issues after their first base.
Volume: 808.1K Avg Volume: 165.227K
BUY POINT: $1.76 Volume=300K Target=$2.28 Stop=$1.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gbn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/22/2003
PHTN (Photon Dynamics--$29.79; -1.32; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phtn.html
STATUS: Double top. Peaked in early September and again just last week and rolled over. The key on the move was absolutely no volume on the second high; it remained below average all the way up. Wednesday it broke the 50 day MVA (30.75) on a slight uptick in volume. Normally we would look for the test of the 50 day, but with the KLAC news we will look to enter at least a partial position on further selling. It will most likely gap down, but we will look to take at least a partial position and then another on the test.
Volume: 220.337K Avg Volume: 317.272K
BUY POINT: $29.64 Volume=476K Target=$26.05 Stop=$30.82
POSITION: PDU XF - Dec. $30p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/phtn.html
Play Date: 10/22/2003
PNR (Pentair--$38.12; -0.1; optionable): Manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnr.html
STATUS: Put. After peaking in early September, PNR fell back and tried to hold at the 50 day MVA near 40. Last week that gave way and PNR plunged below the 200 day MVA (28.37) on earnings and subsequent downgrades. It has fought back up to the 200 day, but fell back Wednesday, showing a doji on lower volume. It looks ready to roll back down again as money flow continues to fail.
Volume: 336.5K Avg Volume: 296.272K
BUY POINT: $37.98 Volume=444K Target=$35.98 Stop=$38.48
POSITION: PNR XH - Dec. $40p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pnr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.9; -0.2; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continues to work laterally over the 18 day MVA (8.61) on low volume, ignoring the market. Currently in a three week flying plateau after the strong breakout from its 4 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Being patient and waiting for the move.
Volume: 43.95K Avg Volume: 101.954K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
ASL (Ashanti Goldfields--$11.35; 0; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher but no volume and sold back to flat by the end of the session. Still working on a short 6 week base showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation and showing some big volume spikes the past week. Strong money flow and relative strength. Looking for the volume to run back up on the next move through the buy point.
Volume: 558.3K Avg Volume: 879.09K
BUY POINT: $11.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$14.22 Stop=$10.81
POSITION: ASL CB - Mar. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asl.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHL (China Mobile--$14.85; -0.2; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continues the lateral move over the 10 day MVA (14.78) after the breakout two weeks. Again, a very good test, holding its gains on low volume. A good place to start the next run, supported by solid accumulation, money flow, and relative strength.
Volume: 570.5K Avg Volume: 535.727K
BUY POINT: New: 15.08 (orig. $14.08) Volume=730K Target=New: 17.95 (orig. positions $16.88) Stop=$14.38
POSITION: CHL LV - Dec. $12.50c (89 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chl.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
GSIC (GSI Commerce--$12.27; -0.24; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsic.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very tight doji right on the 10 day MVA as volume jumped up well above average Wednesday. That is the second big volume spike the past week. Very nice and orderly 10 day test, and now needs to deliver the big breakout move.
Volume: 322.583K Avg Volume: 163.454K
BUY POINT: $12.62 Volume=242K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.68
POSITION: UGF AB - Jan. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gsic.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
NANX (Nanophase Technologies--$7.53; -0.21; optionable): Mining: industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nanx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher Wednesday but could not clear 8 once again, coming back to close on the 10 day MVA as volume remained low. Still a nice pattern, a 5 week lateral move up the 18 day MVA (7.27) and 2 to 0 accumulation. Looking for it to clear 8 and to do so on a big above average volume surge.
Volume: 80.391K Avg Volume: 115.681K
BUY POINT: New: 8.04 (orig. $7.88) Volume=200K Target=$9.45 Stop=$7.2
POSITION: NSY CU - Mar. $7.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nanx.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
SNCI (Sonic Innovations--$7.98; +0.03; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snci.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Moving up the 10 day MVA (7.47) but below 8, not coming back to make the lower test. So, with the great 4 to 0 accumualtion we decided not to fight it. Volume has not been that strong, but it has some resistance at 8. Looks as if it is lining up, buildign some pressure for a breakout over that level. An above average volume break over that level is what we are looking for and have adjusted the buy point to show this.
Volume: 53.115K Avg Volume: 81.318K
BUY POINT: $8.06 Volume=120K Target=$10 Stop=$7.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/snci.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$63; -1.37; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. After a nice break higher last week TARO tested the move, falling back to the 18 day MVA (61.27). Tuesday it rallied off that level on stronger, above average volume. Took a low volume breather Wednesday right over the 10 day at 62.50; no problem with that given the market. Now looking for it to continue the move on another shot of above average volume for new positions.
Volume: 199.331K Avg Volume: 329.727K
BUY POINT: New: 65.12 (orig. $61.51) Volume=501K Target=$73 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: QTT AL - Jan. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/18/2003
ESV (Ensco Intl.--$26.28; -0.43; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esv.html
STATUS: Put. Tanked intraday Wednesday but managed to recover almost $1 of the loss. Lower volume as it rallied back, indicating not a lot of buyers pushing it up. Still looking for a rollover here after the Tuesday tap at 27 on the intraday high.
Volume: 1.504M Avg Volume: 1.596M
BUY POINT: New: $26.18 Volume=2M Target=$24 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ESV XE - Dec. $25p (-33 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esv.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
ODSY (Odyssey Healthcare--$27.86; -0.67; optionable): Long-term care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odsy.html
STATUS: Put. Trying to get over the 10 day MVA (28.75) but unable to do so and sliding lower, and lower down that slope on low, below average volume. Still a buy on further selling as it continues the downtrend that started after the early September top.
Volume: 287.906K Avg Volume: 488.045K
BUY POINT: $27.80 Volume=511K Target=$24.65 Stop=$29.05
POSITION: UPE MF - Jan. $30p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/odsy.html
Play Date: 09/23/2003
UTSI (Utstarcom--$34.8; +0.8; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utsi.html
STATUS: Put. UTSI is still trending down the short term MVA, tapping at the 18 day MVA (35.24) Wednesday and then falling back. It posted a gain as it has rallied back after selling down to 32.50 to start the week. if the downtrend that started in August is going to hold it will fail here. Need to see above average volume on the selling.
Volume: 3.845M Avg Volume: 4.006M
BUY POINT: New: $34.68 (orig. $34.88) Volume=5M Target=$31.78 Stop=$35.85
POSITION: UON XG - Dec. $35p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utsi.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock option
stock information
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