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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Wednesday: CECO; COCO; HAR; LSI
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/22/2003
SWC (Stilwater Mining--$7.15; +0.12; optionable): Industrial metals mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swc.html
STATUS: Cup. SWC is forming a 7 week cup, just starting up off the bottom of the pattern and getting ready to run higher to form the right side. Accumulation is a solid 2 to 0 (2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume) as volume starts swelling the past two sessions, coming in well above average Wednesday. Money flow is leading the stock higher, and we are looking to get in on this move sa it continues.
Volume: 736K Avg Volume: 515K
BUY POINT: $7.24 Volume=510K Target=$9.05 Stop=$6.75
POSITION: SWC DU - Apr. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swc.html
Downside: We are flipping a play that broke lower.
Play Date: 10/22/2003
PLAB (Photronics--$20.39; -1.61; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plab.html
STATUS: Put. PLAB looked ot be testing the 50 day MVA and ready for a move higher, but Monday it undercut the 50 day (21.96) on a sharp volume jump. A weak rebound attempt failed Tuesday and Wednesday PLAB was tanking on even stronger volume. It may snap back up some from here, but with the KLAC news out after the close it does not look promising and we will look for an entry point early for at least a partial position and then on any attempted rebound that subsequently rolls over.
Volume: 1.31M Avg Volume: 710.227K
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=1.1M Target=$17.75 Stop=$22
POSITION: PQF XX - Dec. $22.50p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plab.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
SYMC and ERES announced splits after the Wednesday close. VRTS did not, but posted strong earnings and guidance and was up in after hours trade. MERQ was a disappointment and was down sharply; we will have to see how it recovers.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$68.11; +0.61; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Flat. The market was poor but AVP was active, rising off the 10 day MVA (67.37) on a nice, above average volume surge. No news to account for the action, just showing an indication it is ready to make the move higher from its 3 week lateral move over the short term MVA.
Volume: 1.104M Avg Volume: 893.227K
BUY POINT: New: 68.25 (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday we provide individual summaries for each play.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACV 08/04 Test 18 61.53 -0.11 58.45 67.45 104K 400K 60.95
Current.
ACV 07/19 BO 61.53 -0.11 54.8 65.85 104K 400K 60.95
Current.
ADIC 10/04 Cup hdl 17.05 -0.7 15.99 19.22 723K 1.2M 15.95
Current.
ADPT 10/04 Rv H&S 8.3 -0.3 8.86 10.65 552K 1.6M 8.32
Exited.
APOL 08/14 Test 50 63.95 +0.64 65.88 75.45 3.4M 2M 65.12
Current.
APPB 10/13 BO 33.34 +0.12 34.62 41.55 623K 750K 32.78
Buy Not Issued.
ARQL 10/21 Cup hdl 5.05 -0.35 5.72 7.15 111K 287K 5.32
Buy Not Hit.
AV 09/25 Flat 13.15 -0.3 11.38 13.65 12M 4.4M 12.55
Current.
AVP 08/14 Test 50 68.11 +0.61 66.68 76.32 1.1M 1.7M 66.34
Current.
BCR 10/04 Cup hdl 78.8 -0.06 73.05 83.55 258K 563K 75.96
BLUD 10/21 A Wedge 29.54 -0.35 30.22 34.78 112K 320K 29.08
Buy Not Hit.
BSX 09/29 Test 50 64.54 +0.7 65.45 69.45 2.6M 4.5M 65.02
Current.
CAND 10/02 Test BO 2.43 +0.05 2.36 3.08 274K 240K 2.28
Current.
CECO 07/31 FlyPlat 49.5 +3.35 42.86 47.62 7.2M 1M 46.78
Current.
CECO 07/19 Test 18 49.5 +3.35 37.88 43.28 7.2M 1.2M 46.78
Current.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 49.5 +3.35 31.28 36.73 7.2M 1M 46.78
Current.
CELL 10/02 Test 18 26.45 -0.65 23.25 28 688K 1M 24.68
Current.
CELL 09/20 FlyPlat 26.45 -0.65 22.57 27 688K 538K 24.68
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 26.45 -0.65 12.83 15.51 688K 225K 24.68
Current.
CFC 09/27 Cup hdl 95.66 -1.29 78.38 89.95 3.5M 3.4M 93.25
Current.
CHS 10/04 Dbl btm 36.1 +0.04 34.62 41.53 870K 1.8M 34.92
Current.
CHT 10/16 Cup hdl 15.16 -0.13 15.62 18.75 680K 1.1M 14.69
Buy Not Hit.
COCO 09/20 DB hdl 56.58 +0.85 59.42 69 1.5M 1.1M 56.42
Current.
COH 09/20 PreSplt 33.4 -0.47 30.06 34.55 1.9M 1.2M 30.12
Current.
COLM 08/14 Flat 56.85 -0.98 54.12 64.95 276K 475K 56.05
Current.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 10.3 +0.17 6.5 8.12 62K 200K 9.38
Current.
DCEL 10/07 Test 50 8.7 -0.1 9.15 10.98 664K 1.5M 8.64
Current.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 6.22 -0.12 4.32 5.38 371K 315K 5.96
Current.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 21.57 -0.1 22.25 26 893K 2.9M 20.69
DJO 09/11 Cup 16.65 +0.26 14 16.45 25K 100K 15.68
Current.
EASI 10/14 A Wedge 64.34 -0.8 65.54 75 112K 287K 62.94
Buy Not Issued.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 55.58 -0.85 53.78 60 7.4M 9M 57.25
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 55.58 -0.85 40.04 46 7.4M 8M 57.25
Current.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 4.73 +0.03 4.3 5.22 152K 300K 4.24
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 12.25 -0.26 11.24 13.38 238K 350K 11.78
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 12.25 -0.26 9.33 11.12 238K 400K 11.78
Current.
ENMD 09/17 Cup 5.28 -0.2 5.39 6.72 434K 890K 4.86
Current.
ERES 09/27 Test 50 41.76 -1.68 36.88 43.94 975K 981K 39.22
Current.
ET 09/18 Cup hdl 10.42 -0.33 10.8 12.94 6.5M 7M 10.42
Current.
GGP 10/14 FlyPlat 74.2 -0.76 75.12 86.25 119K 275K 73.58
Current.
HAR 09/20 FlyPlat 121.64 +12.39 101.68 117 1.2M 374K 105.96
HOTT 10/04 Dbl btm 26.57 -0.33 25.39 30.38 1M 748K 26.71
Current.
IFIN 10/13 Rv H&S 32.63 -1.5 35.65 42.45 907K 862K 34.94
Exited.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 31 -0.42 29.05 34.55 1.7M 4.7M 29.45
Current.
JADE 10/16 Cup hdl 4.45 +0.02 5.04 6.32 35K 235K 4.45
Buy Not Hit.
JAH 09/06 Cup hdl 37.05 -0.77 38.05 45.5 78K 270K 36.42
Buy Not Issued.
JBLU 10/11 Test BO 67.96 -1.6 68.12 78 1.8M 1.9M 65.05
Current.
JBLU 07/26 BO 67.96 -1.6 46.32 55.64 1.8M 1.5M 64.36
Current.
JCOM 08/12 PreSplt 33.25 -0.2 25.98 29 3.5M 1.4M 42.48
Current.
KFX 09/27 FlyPlat 6.05 -0.02 5.24 6.62 116K 137K 5.55
Current.
KRON 10/07 PreSplt 56.5 -0.14 57.62 67.55 241K 239K 55.78
Current.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 76.65 +0.24 58.5 67.78 581K 610K 75.98
Current.
LNCR 10/20 BO 37.84 -0.55 39.48 47.35 1.2M 1.2M 36.96
Buy Not Issued.
LNUX 10/11 Test 50 4.71 -0.24 5.35 6.75 883K 300K 4.98
Buy Not Issued.
LSI 09/29 Dbl Top 8.99 -0.68 9.25 7.51 15M 6M 9.91
Current.
MBG 10/09 Test 50 39.44 +0.04 40.25 46.25 1M 1.8M 37.43
Buy Not Issued.
MERQ 10/02 Test 50 49.06 -1.48 49.85 55 3.7M 4.7M 47.55
Current. Good current earnings, but the Q4 guidance range was
below the midpoint of expectations and it was taken
to the mat after hours, trading near 46.
MGAM 10/18 Test 18 35.34 +0.16 40.65 48.78 1.3M 825K 38.45
Buy Not Hit.
MOBE 09/15 Cup hdl 10.02 -0.39 8.7 10.88 586K 810K 8.83
Current.
MYL 09/30 Test 50 27.4 -0.64 25.93 29.72 1.3M 2.1M 27.18
Current.
NANO 10/15 Dbl btm 13.63 -0.67 15.19 18.34 243K 517K 13.96
Current.
NEXM 10/14 Cup hdl 4.99 -0.17 5.03 6.28 277K 292K 4.73
Current.
NSM 09/17 BO 38.04 -1.24 35.35 42 2.9M 5M 36.28
Current.
NTE 10/18 Test 18 32.91 -1.58 34.4 41.25 814K 1.2M 31.88
Current.
NTPA 09/11 FlyPlat 8.6 -0.3 7.85 9.85 189K 325K 8.24
Current.
NVLS 10/20 Test 50 38.18 -1.31 39.28 46 5.5M 9.5M 36.95
Buy Not Issued.
NXG 10/15 Cup 1.9 -0.03 1.89 2.48 1M 684K 1.78
Current.
OLGC 10/18 Test BO 6.85 -0.2 7.15 8.58 202K 342K 6.52
Current.
ORBK 10/14 DB hdl 22.94 -1.08 24.31 29 128K 200K 22.89
Current.
ORLY 08/19 Flat 38.46 -0.62 39.48 47.05 171K 350K 38.68
Current.
OTEX 10/18 Test BO 41.58 -0.06 44.12 50.75 478K 500K 41.38
Buy Not Hit.
PKI 10/09 DB hdl 16.25 -0.52 17.18 20.65 610K 1.1M 16.21
Buy Not Issued.
PLAB 10/11 Test 50 20.39 -1.61 24.48 29.35 1.3M 1.1M 22.77
Buy Not Hit. Dropping this and flipping it to a downside play.
PSUN 10/11 DB hdl 22.23 -0.66 24.12 28.94 1.1M 2.3M 22.54
Buy Not Issued.
PTEK 08/26 Cup hdl 8.98 -0.29 6.74 8.65 771K 276K 8.98
Current.
RI 09/30 Cup hdl 25.68 -0.06 27.72 33 216K 750K 25.78
RMD 10/11 FlyPlat 45.03 -0.25 46.82 53.88 222K 215K 44.66
Buy Not Hit.
ROST 09/18 Test 50 50.99 -0.86 52.95 62.55 1.4M 850K 51.12
Current.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 29.92 -0.07 30.35 36.75 2.2M 6M 29.25
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 29.92 -0.07 26.3 30.94 2.2M 6M 29.25
Current.
SCKT 10/21 Cup hdl 3.36 -0.04 3.52 4.45 464K 526K 3.22
Buy Not Hit.
SEAC 09/06 Cup 15.66 0 12.37 14.85 736K 345K 14.92
Current.
SIGA 10/07 Cup hdl 2.52 -0.08 2.41 3.12 379K 450K 2.32
Current.
SINA 09/09 Cup 38.18 +0.48 36.15 41 10M 12M 38.94
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 38.18 +0.48 32.2 38.25 10M 10M 38.94
Current.
STLW 10/21 DB hdl 5.73 -0.31 6.29 7.85 79K 132K 5.85
Buy Not Hit.
SYK 09/20 Flat 80.15 -0.49 78.97 90.25 548K 1.1M 77
Current.
SYMC 10/18 Flat 64.42 -2.95 67.88 77.94 5.9M 5M 64.77
Current. Announced a 2:1 stock split after hours and some very
solid earnings while raising guidance. Was holding
mostly steady after hours after giving back almost
$3 to the 18 day MVA during the regular session.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 63 -1.37 61.51 73 199K 501K 61.32
Current.
TIWI 10/16 Cup hdl 5.69 -0.06 5.57 7 321K 350K 5.19
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 40.67 -0.68 28.06 31.44 677K 494K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 40.67 -0.68 26.62 30 677K 500K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 40.67 -0.68 23.42 27.62 677K 603K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 40.67 -0.68 21.88 26 677K 603K 33.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 40.67 -0.68 19.3 22.19 677K 577K 36.12
Current.
TSYS 10/14 Test 18 5.8 -0.15 5.05 6.15 876K 120K 4.72
Target Hit. Took half of gain on this position, letting the remaining
positions from both buys continue to run for us.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 5.8 -0.15 3.54 4.45 876K 120K 4.72
Current.
URBN 10/18 Rv H&S 31.06 -1.74 33.61 40 948K 953K 31.36
Current.
USNA 10/14 Test BO 62.08 -2.93 55.58 63.94 307K 314K 52.96
Buy Not Issued.
UTSI 09/23 Put 34.8 +0.8 34.88 31.78 3.8M 5M 35.85
VLNC 10/18 Cup hdl 3.96 -0.23 4.55 5.68 216K 388K 4.23
Buy Not Hit.
VRTS 10/04 Test 50 33.94 -1.35 35.77 42.88 10M 1M 33.88
Current. Record profits and revenues (doubles earnings) and
was positive after hours after trading down on the session.
VSEA 10/21 Rv H&S 41.21 -1.74 43.78 52 326K 1.1M 41.32
Buy Not Hit.
VSV 09/25 Test BO 5.6 -0.09 6.18 8.08 131K 300K 5.75
Buy Not Hit.
YUM 10/01 Flat 32.89 +0.01 31.99 37.55 881K 1.6M 31.22
Buy Not Issued.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 58.72 -0.16 51.12 59.55 1.1M 3M 56.94
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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