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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Thursday: ACV; CFC; ZMH; ERES; LM; ORLY
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits: New buy points on some current plays.
Play Date: 10/23/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$65.23; +0.69; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 11-6-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. BSX is working laterally over the 50 day MVA (63.39), trying to come off of the bottom of a short 4 week base it has formed after peaking in mid-September at 68.50. It has been moving laterally over support at 62.50 on low, below average volume, consolidating the move. Volume has edged higher the past two sessions, indicating that BSX may be ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 2.437M Avg Volume: 3.74M
BUY POINT: $66.06 Volume=4M Target=$75 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: BSX AM - Jan. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 10/14/2003
USNA (Usana Health Science--$63.83; +1.75; no options): Drug related products. Splits 2:1 on 10-31-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usna.html
STATUS: Pre-split. USNA is walking up the 10 day MVA (60.07) on some excellent volume. After starting back down Wednesday, USNA gapped down to the 10 day and then reversed for a nice gain on rising volume. Looks ready to continue the strong move and we are going to glop on the momentum.
Volume: 332.244K Avg Volume: 210.363K
BUY POINT: $64.12 Volume=314K Target=$73.75 Stop=$59.63
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usna.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/23/2003
LOUD (Loudeye--$2.46; +0.15; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/loud.html
STATUS: Flat base. LOUD is getting ready to make the breakout from its 14 week base sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Tuesday volume spiked up as LOUD started the move but got sidetracked in the Wednesday selling. A quick test of the 18 day MVA (2.25) and it was ready again, rallying Thursday on lower though still above average volume. Looking for the breakout move to continue and follow that strong money flow higher.
Volume: 2.995M Avg Volume: 2.431M
BUY POINT: $2.64 Volume=3.6M Target=$3.45 Stop=$2.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/loud.html
Play Date: 10/23/2003
TXN (Texas Instruments--$27.31; +0.3; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: Test breakout. TXN announced excellent earnings and guidance Monday and gapped higher. This market pullback the rest of the week was perfect for a test, and TXN came back to fill the gap and then started higher Thursday on strong trade. The fact that it ignored the tech sector and the troubles in the chip equipment sector shows its underlying strength. Ready to move in on a further rally on volume.
Volume: 21.897M Avg Volume: 11.934M
BUY POINT: $27.62 Volume=18M Target=$33.15 Stop=$25.96
POSITION: TXN AY - Jan. $27.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/txn.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/16/2003
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$15.32; +0.16; no options): Taiwan telecom services provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. New issued in August. CHT gapped down again Thursday, but once more immediately turned up and rallied. Volume was still below average, but CHT is showing excellent aaction in the handle to go along with the excellent 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume verssu 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Solid, and now we need to see the breakout on a good volume surge.
Volume: 561.7K Avg Volume: 860.5K
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cht.html
Play Date: 10/09/2003
PKI (Perkinelmer--$17.07; +0.82; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. PKI is making a living bouncing up the 50 day MVA (16.14), Thursday making the move on the strongest volume in a long while, surging over the September highs. A very solid recovery, and looking to move in on a further rally on above average volume.
Volume: 1.159M Avg Volume: 681.954K
BUY POINT: $17.18 Volume=1.1M Target=$20.65 Stop=$16.21
POSITION: PKI AC - Jan. $15c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pki.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$63.5; +0.5; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. TARO continues to move laterall on below average volume over the 18 day MVA (61.51). Showing good action as it gathers itself for the next move higher after the breakout from its 12 week base.
Volume: 193.616K Avg Volume: 326.136K
BUY POINT: New: $65.12 (orig. $61.51) Volume=501K Target=$73 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: QTT AL - Jan. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/taro.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
SYMC, ERES announced splits.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Lots of action this week with earnings season hitting its peak. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements.
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. No split with earnings but a strong move.
APOL: No split announced 10-07-03.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: Forecast 10-15-03 after the close. No split but huge earnings and the stock shot higher.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03 before the market opens with earnings. No split but crushed earnings and was flying again!
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Knocked the cover off the ball, beating by 5 cents.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03 after the market closes. Announced the split and bolted higher!
ETN: No split with earnings on 10-14 but a strong move.
GDW: Forecast 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. No split announced, but rallying well.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings. No split but a great move from this perennial leader.
MERQ: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings. No split and it disappointed.
NATI: Forecast 10-23-03 after the close. Announced a dividend instead of a split.
NTE: Forecast 10-27-03 before the open.
ORLY: Forecast 10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: Forecast 10-16-03 after the market closes. No split but some solid earnings.
SYMC: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close. Announced its split, struggled a bit, but still solid.
VRTS: Forecast 10-22-03 after the close. No split but outstanding earnings and looks good for more gains.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/23/2003
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$37.5; +0.81; optionable): Discount variety stores.
BACKGROUND: A habitual splitter through 2000 (4 splits in 5 years), DLTR is approaching its split price once again.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Cup. DLTR is forming a nice 7 week cup base, just starting to move up to form the right side of the base. Volume has suddenly come to life the past three sessions, a signal of the formation of the right side of the base. It is moving up off the 50 day MVA (35.68), a natural place to enter a strong stock Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base that is acting as the handle to a much larger 17 month double bottom pattern. That is a good accumulation base, and we are looking to pick DLTR up here on a further move higher on a solid volume surge.
Volume: 1.589M Avg Volume: 1.529M
BUY POINT: $37.92 Volume=2.3M Target=$45.55 Stop=$35.94
POSITION: DQO BU - Feb. $37.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dltr.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/04/2003
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$62.75; +1.22; optionable): Personal products (beauty aids, etc.). Forecast 11-3-03 in conjunction with a board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in February 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Breakout. ACV came back on low volume to test the 10 day MVA (61.57) and then shot higher Thursday on a strong volume move after good earnings results. This is a very strong stock in a strong uptrend, and we are looking for further positions on a continued volume move.
Volume: 470.5K Avg Volume: 218.818K
BUY POINT: New: 62.92 (orig. $58.45) Volume=400K Target=$67.45 Stop=$60.95
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$67.92; -0.19; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Working laterally over the 10 day MVA (67.47) and below 68 on low volume. Volume shot higher Wednesday as AVP tried a move higher but faded back some Thursday as the market sold. Still holding the pattern and ready for the next move.
Volume: 675.7K Avg Volume: 900.045K
BUY POINT: New: 68.25 (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$66.34
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHS (Chicos Fas--$35.48; -0.62; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-2-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-27-02 at a stock price of $37.74. Prior to this split CHS has announced other splits in December: 12-01 and 12-99, so December is a favored month. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A nice pullback to test the 10 day MVA (35.60) after surging out of its short double bottom with handle pattern in early October. As the market turned choppy CHS faded back, but volume was low and it made an orderly fall back to support. Looking for the next volume break higher to enter new positions.
Volume: 966.6K Avg Volume: 1.13M
BUY POINT: New: $36.65 (orig. $34.62) Volume=1.8M Target=$41.53 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: CHS BG - Feb. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$57.41; +0.83; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-29-03 in conjunction with earnings or 11-20-03 at its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Recovery. After a pretty sharp sell off after the APOL earnings that took it below the 50 day MVA (56.13), COCO has staged a solid recovery, aided by the CECO earnings. It managed to break back over the 50 day MVA Wednesday and continued the move Thursday. We want to see it break some resistance at 59 for new positions.
Volume: 568.544K Avg Volume: 764.909K
BUY POINT: New: $58.25 Volume=1.1M Target=$69 Stop=$56.42
POSITION: UCS BL - Feb. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$39.8; +1.34; optionable): Retail auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings or on 11-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events. BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After a 3 week pullback to test the 50 day MVA (38.03) ORLY started back up Thursday on rising though still below average volume. ORLY has peaked twice at 40, and we are looking for a volume move over that level for new positions. ORLY is a solid leader, and looks ready to start the next leg.
Volume: 238.472K Avg Volume: 340.272K
BUY POINT: New: $40.25 (orig. $39.48) Volume=350K Target=$47.05 Stop=$38.68
POSITION: OQR BH - Feb. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$35.7; +1.76; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings. No split announced but strong earnings.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong move higher Thursday on the earnings news, but gave back a chunk of the gain. It is trying to make the breakout from its 7 week base and was close Thursday. The action was in a weak tech market, and with the good news we anticipate VRTS will continue the move and make the strong breakout.
Volume: 17.392M Avg Volume: 6.491M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $35.77 Breakout: $36.25 Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.88
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/14/2003
EASI (Engineered Support--$63.8; -0.54; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Splits 3:2 on 11-3-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. A very nice, low volume test of the 18 day MVA (63.64) after a 3 week lateral move. EASI is showing a very tight doji right on the 18 day MVA. We anticipate it is going to make a stronger volume move up off of this pattern.
Volume: 79.229K Avg Volume: 191.136K
BUY POINT: $65.54 Volume=287K Target=$75 Stop=$62.94
POSITION: UFE BM - Feb. 65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/easi.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/04/2003
HOTT (Hot Topic--$27.25; +0.68; optionable): Youth apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. After a strong surge off the 50 day MVA to start the month, running 7 points, HOTT has come back to test the 18 day MVA (26.40) on lower volume. Volume then jumped back above average the past two sessions as HOTT held and then started up off of this near support level that is often used as support after a breakout. Looks ready to continue the breakout move after this nice, lower volume test.
Volume: 1.007M Avg Volume: 909.727K
BUY POINT: New: $27.72 (orig. $25.39) Volume=748K Target=$30.38 Stop=$26.71
POSITION: UHO BE - Feb. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hott.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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