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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 4 of 4
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
ACF (Americredit--$47.36; +0.87; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ACF has fallen back out of the fine consolidation it had formed, dipping back to the 50 day MVA (46.34) and holding there for the moment. It dipped as low as 45 Thursday before recovering a bit to close, and made a slight, low volume move up Friday (872,800; average 1 million). It might need to consolidate here a bit, and from here we will want to see a solid move up before committing to positions.
BUY POINT: A move over 50 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $45 calls to buy (ACF HI).
ASFC (Astoria Financial--$55.68; -0.75; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 9:30 ET.
STATUS: ASFC has not been able to keep anything going. It has been some decent-looking patterns, and is right in split range, but has not been able to get much volume on moves up. Its last move up from the 50 day MVA (56.10) stalled at 57.50, and Friday saw ASFC gap down below that support and continue down. Volume was down but remained above the average at 354,400 (average 363,400), so on a continued drop we will see if the stock can hold recent lows in the 55 range. We will remain patient, but this was a sell signal for existing positions if it cannot break right back over it.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 57.50 with increased volume (412,400; average 364,000). Breakout: Over 58.50 on increased volume.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (AQR GK).
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$67.00; +0.18; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Did not show us much on the recent breakout from its cup with handle, hitting a high of 72.90 but promptly pulling back and consolidating in the 68-70 range. It has now fallen back through key support at the 50 day MVA (67.46), but held its ground with a doji Friday as volume remained rather light (110,000; average 158,300). It has formed a small head-and-shoulders at the moment, so we will see if it can recover, but if it cannot we can look at a put play down, with the pattern indicating a possible move to the 63 range. We will want to see stronger selling on the next move. The March high is at 64, but our target will be 63, with the 200 day MVA at 61.15.
BUY POINT: After a failed move at the 50 day, a move back down on increased volume near the average.
POSITION: August $80 puts to buy (CBH SP - available Monday, so we will be checking deltas, etc.).
IGT (International Game Technology--$62.84; +1.09; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that IGT has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT has made two solid moves up since breaking from its cup with handle in May. After hitting a high of 66.04 the stock pulled back the past week, but after tapping back to 60.23 Friday (the old trendline connecting September-January closing lows) the stock surged back up to close with a gain, moving on increased, strong volume of 1.15 million (average 820,600). A solid rebound, and we will see if it can continue. Great relative strength and solid buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move back over 64 on increased volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (IGT GL).
ITG (Investment Tech Group--$49.98; +0.48; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 11-19-97 at a stock price of $70, and in December 1995 at $65. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 1:00 pm ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: ITG has been quite erratic, but has dropped back strong and steady from the 55 range. The stock took out its 50 day MVA (51.28) and up trendline just above that level (connecting March and April lows as it built the right side of a cup) on Wednesday, and after gapping down to 48.70 Friday the stock managed to close back up at its recent low at 50. We will see if it tests the 50 day level again on a bounce up, looking for a move back down on heavier volume for a possible put play. On that move, a target of 46 on the move down.
BUY POINT: After a failed bounce up, a move back down from the range of the 50 day MVA with increased volume (up to 203,500 Friday; average 229,700).
POSITION: August $60 puts to buy (ITG TL - available Monday, so we need to check deltas, etc.).
KMP (Kinder Morgan--$69.00; +0.70):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Fell back out of the tight, lateral consolidation it had formed over its 18 day MVA (69.91), and steadily dropped before holding support at its 50 day MVA (68.44) the last four sessions. Volume spiked up Thursday as the stock pulled back, but dipped again as the stock pushed up Friday (80,500; average 141,400). We will see if it can hold. It has made quite a move over the past year, more recently making a strong move up out of a saucer pattern in April, hitting a breakout high of 73.98. It has to come back with something sustained.
BUY POINT: A move back over 72 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$54.79; -0.04; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: With the former leading techs we have on the report, we are used to seeing them jerk back and forth with the whim of the market. The stock took out its 50 day MVA (61.70) Wednesday and dropped heavily again the following session, catching itself with a shooting star doji Friday as volume continued to be strong (down to 5.4 million; average 4.67 million). We could get a bounce from this level, and we will see if it can reach up to the 50 day range. If we get some more weakness in the market, we can look to play MERQ back down with a put play. Our initial target would be the 50 range (March high).
BUY POINT: On a failure of that move in the 57-60 range, we will look at puts on strong selling back down.
POSITION: August $65-$70 puts to buy (RQB TM or RQB TM - available Monday, so we will be checking the deltas, etc. in making our put choice).
MMM (Minnesota Mining--$120.88; +0.12):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-15-94 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $102. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-8-01 at 10:00 am CT at which time no additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: MMM broke from a cup with handle in mid-May, but after pulling back and testing the 50 day MVA (currently 117.55), the stock has pulled back up and is in a consolidation just over its prior handle and its 18 day MVA (120.46). After dipping back Thursday the stock showed a tight doji Friday with a surge in volume (2.53 million; average 2.18 million). The breakout high in mid-May was 127, but the last two moves have stopped at 123.09 and at Wednesday's high of 124. Relative strength has broken out.
BUY POINT: A move back over 124 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $120 calls to buy (MMM GD).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
BRCD (Brocade--$39.29; +0.02; optionable (UBF): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: Pulled back below its 50 day MVA (42.14) this week, but is holding the lows in its recent range (36-38). A tough call, and we know that BRCD can make solid moves in either direction depending on the market. If we get a move up the key will be whether the stock can make it back over its 50 day, and if so we could have an upside play. If it fails and we get market weakness, a put. For now we will see how it reacts and check it out after Monday's action.
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$62.99; +1.39; optionable): Health services. Split 2:1 June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: The stock had been moving up in stair-step fashion, surging up and then pulling back to the short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day at 63.42 and 62.89, respectively), but is having some trouble holding those levels now. It gapped down Friday but was able to push back up to close just over the 18 day, with strong volume behind it (549,200; average 397,700). We were looking at it to hold the late-May consolidation range near 60, and now we will see if it can continue to run up.
PLAY: A move over 65 on increased volume, with stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (DGX HL).
EMLX (Emulex--$32.88; +1.03; optionable (UMQ): Computer Hardware: Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emlx.html
STATUS: EMLX broke below the lows in its recent lateral range below the 50 day MVA (36.90), Friday gapping down to 30.16 but managing a push back up. Still quite weak, however, with volume less than what we saw on Thursday's selling (6.4 million; average 6.34 million). The former lows in its consolidation are at 33-34, and if it cannot hold this move, we will be ready to take put positions on a strong move back down by the stock and the market. Our initial target will be in the 25-27 range.
PLAY: After a failure of this move to the 33-34 range, a move down with the market on increased selling volume, with August $40 puts to buy (UMQ TH - available Monday, so we will check deltas, etc.).
FIC (Fair Isaac--$54.65; +2.27; no options): Split 3:2 effective June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Business services. The stock has made a great run for us since breaking out from a cup with handle in January back in the 35 range. It formed another cup with handle over that original base, then on a breakout from there it made a flying plateau, from which it broke on a pre-split move. The stock has been strong post-split, and made yet another move Friday, although sellers caught up with buyers, pushing the stock back to close off of its high of 56.27. The pattern signals a drop back, and we will see it can again catch the 18 day MVA (51.71). Volume spiked up to 278,100 (average 92,600). Relative strength broke out, with good money flow and buying.
PLAY: Aggressive: After holding the 18 day on a lower volume pullback, a move back over 54 on continued strong volume. Stock only.
GENZ (Genzyme--$52.30; +0.52; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Biotechnology. Made a solid move after the split, hitting a new high of 58.44 before pulling back to the 50 day MVA (51.93, in the lower range of its May consolidation). The stock gapped down to 51 Friday but recovered to close just over the 50 day, with volume really kicking in at 6.5 million (average 3 million). It showed a promising bounce early in the week from this level, but after the recent pullback we will need to see if it can sustain something.
PLAY: Over 54 (10 day MVA at 53.78) on continued strong volume, looking at stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (GZQ JK).
KKD (Krispy Kreme--$38.06; +2.96; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective June 15.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kkd.html
STATUS: Made a surge on the split, closing over its May closing high with a strong blast of volume (3.8 million; average 993,500). We will see if has a post-split slump or if it can continue the momentum; its move Friday was out of a nice consolidation it had formed, and with the solid volume, it could prove to be the latter.
PLAY: Aggressive: A further strong move up from here, with stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (KKD HG).
LH (Laboratory Corp--$79.10; +2.64; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Took a bit of a drop after the split, but held the 18 day MVA (75.73, at its April high)) and made a strong move up Friday, closing back over the 10 day (77.70). A solid move, although volume dipped a bit and came in below average at 463,300 (average 482,800). In something of an irregular cup with handle, so we will see if it can keep the strength and take out the recent high. Relative strength has broken out.
PLAY: A move up from here on increased volume, with stock and/or August $75 calls to buy (LH HO). Breakout: 82.63 on volume of 720,000, with stock and/or August $80 calls to buy (LH HP).
SEBL (Siebel--$40.07; +0.88; optionable) (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: SEBL got creamed this week, gapping down below its 50 day MVA (45.29) Thursday. It caught itself with a loose doji Friday as volume remained strong at 24.4 million (average 17 million), so we could get a bit of a bounce from here. We will see how it handles resistance on such a move, and will revisit it after Monday to determine whether we are going to have a sustained recovery or a failure that we can play back down. On a failed move, we are targeting 34.
PLAY: A move down on continued strong volume after move up that fails near the 45 level, with August $50 puts to buy (SGW TJ).
WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.75; -0.07; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Continues in a handle to a cup pattern, holding on to its 18 day MVA (27.60). Volume blasted up, perhaps signaling a move up to come (539,400; average 483,200). We will want to see the stock make its way back up and give us a breakout for positions.
PLAY: Breakout 29.55 on volume of 720,000, with stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (FMQ HY - low open interest).
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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