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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
Q: What do you think the dangers are of a European economic slow down prolonging the US recovery of earnings for another year?
A: As we said last week, Europe feeds off of the U.S., not vice versa. We make our own wake over here and had to do it all during the 1990's. It won't help, but we were not expecting any help from Europe. Indeed, as we said over a year ago, as the U.S. goes, so goes the world. That is what is happening, and as we have seen and heard from companies recently, the U.S. is improving but Europe is just slowing down. We were not counting on Europe when we made our projection of a second half recovery, and we are not counting on Europe now.
Q: Could you please tell me what " team trades " mean? Are you all trading at the same time ? Do you send members emails to trade those?
A: Well, with all of the flooding, our trading has been taking a bit of a back seat of late as we here at the newsletters are working round the clock to get our households up and running when not preparing the reports. I have some buy stops in on some breakouts we are tracking and some split plays, but my off time right now is trying to get life back to normal.
To answer your question, Team Trades are trades we make on the plays that we have written about in the reports. The purpose is to show subscribers how we go about acting upon the plays that we have set up, i.e., what we look for, when we get in, what positions we take and at what points. It helps provide another tool to see how we utilize the information we prepare. The plays are very similar to the thought process (actually almost identical) that we go through in deciding if we want to make the trade.
Now, we are going to introduce another service very soon (in the next two weeks or so) for all of the reports that is an alert service that will notify you by email, pager, or cell phone when we see a breakout move or other move we are looking for and are ready to make the trade. It is going to give you the information we use to make the decision: the alert will be triggered at a price just below the pivot point or buy point so we have time to check the play again, it will provide the actual buy point where we would get in, the current volume, and what percent of average volume the current volume is. We will also include any comments we feel are important for the trade, if any. It is quite an undertaking to do this, but it is a service that many of you want, and it will easily pay for itself each month by getting you into the right trades at the right time without requiring you to watch the market at all times. Needless to say, we are very excited about this service.
For a review of frequently asked questions, please use the link below:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm
Investment House subscribers are offered a special from eSignal for those
interested in a realtime service. Contact:
Jeff Whitney
Account Executive
Data Broadcasting Corporation
800-322-1875
Office hours 6:30-3:30 PST
www.esignal.com
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
All prices reflect prices at the close on Friday.
BEST PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) FITB: Looks ready.
2) BBBY: Bouncing from the 50 day MVA.
3) FISV: Moving up on strong volume in a good pattern.
4) BGEN: Ripe.
5) EBAY: Ditto, and business is good.
6) OCLR: Still a good pattern.
7) AVIR: Looks ready for a move up in the handle.
8) WPI: Ditto.
9) CRL: This one IS up in the handle, and on great volume.
BREAKOUTS: HB ran up nicely but needs a pullback.
Continued:
UNFI (United Natural Foods--$17.95; -0.05; no options): Food wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unfi.html
STATUS: Formed another handle to the cup base, pulling back from the new handle high of 19.25. Volume was dropping lower below average until Thursday, when it spiked above average, but Friday was back down to 64,500 (avg. 141,000) The stock
moved laterally over the last 4 days, showing tighter dojis since Wednesday as its holds above the 18 day MVA (17.82). Solid money flow and great buying. Target on a breakout: $21-22.
BUY POINT: 19.38, on volume of 212,000 or better. Stop: At or near the 10 day MVA (18.05).
POSITION: Stock.
TESTS OF THE BREAKOUT: Some of these stocks are moving back on low volume to test the breakout. We often take profits on option plays when they start to pullback on the breakout move and then get back in when the stock bounces up off of the breakout point. This second move is where some of the biggest gains are made.
Back on:
BORL (Borland--$13.40; +0.60; optionable (BLQ): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/borl.html
STATUS: Tested the breakout, tapping the 18 day MVA on the low of 12.05 then headed up as volume surged nicely (2 million; avg. 89,200). The stock closed near the high of 13.49 as relative strength broke out ahead of price. Looking for a move over the high of 13.84. Shows huge money flow and strong buying. Target: $18.
BUY POINT: Over 13.84 on continued strong volume. Stop: 12.87 (10 day MVA, 12.71).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $10 calls to buy (BLQ JB).
Continued: Watchlist: Keeping DFXI on a watch.
FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$59.45; +0.05; optionable (FTQ):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
STATUS: Still in the handle to the 6.5-month base. Got a volume spike Friday to the tune of 3.97 million (avg. 1.7 million) as the stock showed a doji right at support (18 day MVA, 59.05). Sure looks ready to move if it can hold support here. Great money flow, and buying looks good. Target: $65-68.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 61.24, on volume of 2.5 million or better. Stop: 50 day MVA, 56.91.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (TTQ HK).
HET (Harrah's Entertainment--$37.82; +0.12; optionable (HET): Leisure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/het.html
STATUS: Moved up after testing the breakout, but Monday's promising move was followed by a 4-day pullback to the 10 day MVA (37.46), from where the stock made a small move up. Volume dropped back to 939,200 (avg. 786,000) to pull HET off the high of 38.07, but this stock looks like it can make another strong move.
Looking for a break over last week's high of 38.29. Target: $43-45.
BUY POINT: Over 38.29 on volume in the range of 1 million. Stop: 35.61 (50 day MVA, 35.20).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (HET HG).
BLPG (Boron Lepore--$14.43; +0.05; no options): Diversified services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blpg.html
STATUS: Remains in the handle to its 5.5-month cup base, having tested near both the 50 and 18 day MVAs in the last 2 days. The handle is holding above the 10 day MVA (14.27), the stock Friday showing a doji at the top of the intraday range. Volume dropped back to 78,100 (avg. 87,000) after spiking Wednesday; action was volatile again Thursday when the stock fell to the 50 day test, but the stock looked better Friday. Thus, it may need a couple of days to settle down further. Still like the pattern. Great money flow. Target: $16-17.
BUY POINT: 14.88, on volume of 131,000 or better. Stop: 13.90 (18 day MVA, 14).
POSITION: Stock.
MOVING AVERAGE BOUNCES:
A revisited stock:
BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond--$29.25; optionable (BHQ): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: The stock shot off the 50 day MVA in May to run to a high of 31.90 and subsequently pulled back down to that moving average again where it has found apparent support (28.70). Friday the stock pulled back off a high of 30.07 on a move over the 10 and 18 day MVAs (the latter the highest at 29.72), but the stock looks ready to try a run back up. Volume was higher and at average, 3.26 million. Money flow is strong, and relative strength is ahead of price. Looking for an initial target of $35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 30 on volume in the range of 4 million. Stop: 27.90.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (BHQ HE).
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
Ascending wedges:
New:
FISV (Fiserv--$57.17; +1.45; optionable (FQV): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
STATUS: Formed an ascending wedge above the 18 day MVA, which is supporting the dips in the pattern (currently the MVA is at 55.80). The wedge is in the upper right side of an 8.5-month base, and the stock looks ready to try a breakout. Moving up on strong volume (1.86 million; avg. 1.47 million), the stock tapped resistance at the 58 range. Shows uptrending money flow since the first of April, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price. Target: $64.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 58.28, on volume of 2 million or better. Stop: 54.20 (50 day MVA, 53.80).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (FQV IK).
Continued: Two stocks from Thursday's update report:
BGEN (Biogen--$64.93; +0.69; optionable (BGQ): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Made a solid move up in the ascending wedge Friday, with volume hitting average (3 million) and the stock heading up from support at the 50 day MVA (62.51). Looking for the breakout from here. Potential support is at the 10 day MVA (64.02) or 18 day MVA (63.31). Strong money flow, and buying is picking up. Target: $75 (high at the start of the 3.5-month base).
BUY POINT: 65.99, on volume of 4.5 million or better. Stop: 61.37. A
buy up to 69.29 on the breakout.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (BGQ JL).
EBAY (Ebay Inc--$65.12; +1.06; optionable (QXB): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Moved higher in the wedging pattern set up above the 18 day MVA (62.09) as volume rose again, this time to 8.6 million (avg. 5.9 million). The company's CEO on Friday said that the business was "recession proof'. The stock is right at resistance at the 65 level, but we are going to look for a move over the May high of 66.50 for the breakout. The stock is in a 9-month base with the wedging pattern just above mid-range in the right side. Big money flow and high relative strength. Target: $77-78 (highs at the start of the base).
BUY POINT: Breakout: 66.63, on volume of 8 million or better. Stop: 61.96 (18 day MVA, 62.09).
POSITION: Breakout: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (QXB JL).
Pennant:
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$23.11; -0.03; optionable (QLO): Health Service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: In the tightening pennant. Volume is volatile in the pattern, but we like the tightened quality here and the hold of support at the 10 day MVA (22.86). Volume was up to average Friday (136,300) as the stock moved up from the opening price of 22.95 despite the pullback on the day. OCLR shows huge money flow and strong buying. Target: $30.
BUY POINT: 24.05, on volume of 184,000 or better. Stop: 22.37 (18 day MVA, 22.26). A buy on the breakout up to 25.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $20 calls to buy (QLO JD).
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
Watchlist: GNTA for a more extended pullback, LZ, IBM, DMRC.
Continued:
AVIR (Aviron--$60.41; +1.76; optionable (QCV): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avir.html
STATUS: Covered on the update reports last week. The stock is in a 5.5-month base and made a move up Friday from the apparent base of its handle; after tapping a low of 55.55 (the 18 day MVA is at 57) it moved back over the 10 day MVA (where it opened at 59) to close higher. A promising move; look for the breakout over the handle high (64.36). Volume was at 346,500 (avg. 522,363). Shows excellent money flow and buying, and relative strength has broken out ahead of the stock price. Target: $71-74.
BUY POINT: 64.49, on volume of 784,000 or better. Stop: 59.98 (above the 10 day).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (QCV HK).
New:
WPI (Watson Pharmaceuticals--$61.50; +0.71; optionable (WPI): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wpi.html
STATUS: In a 7.5-month cup with handle that is part of a larger base with highs at 71.50. The stock made a move back over the 10 day MVA (61.17) after testing the 18 day MVA twice in the previous 6 days (that support is at 59.87). Volume was higher and almost at average (861,600; avg. 899,000), so we are looking for this move up to mushroom into a run up to breakout. The stock shows great money flow and strong buying. Target: $71-74.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up form here on above average volume. Stop: 57.20 . Breakout: 64.23, on volume of 1.3 million or better. Stop: 59.73 (just under the 18 day).
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (WPI HK). Breakout: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (WPI HL).
IDPH (Idec Pharmaceuticals--$73.00; +2.65; optionable (IHD): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idph.html
STATUS: The stock is moving up in the handle to a 6-month base (high at the start of the base is 77.65). After pulling off the handle high of 75 that was reached early this month, the stock hit support (18 day MVA just over 65) and moved up to the present level. Look for a breakout over 75 as volume continues to climb (up Friday to 4 million; avg. 3.9 million). The stock shows good money flow, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price, which is bullish. Target: $83-86.
BUY POINT: 75.13, on volume of 5.8 million or more. Stop: 69.87 (10 day MVA, 69.24).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $70 or $75 calls to buy (IHD JN or JO).
CRL (Charles River Labs--$31.10; +2.40; optionable (CRL): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crl.html
STATUS: In a cup with handle of 8.5 months. The stock appears to have finished with a test of the 50 day MVA (28.33), bouncing from there Friday for a strong move back over the short term moving averages (30.13, 18 day MVA). Volume was great at 483,300 (avg. 199,000). We are looking for the breakout over 34.54 (May high). The stock shows strong money flow and relative strength that has broken out ahead of price.
Target: $38-40.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop: 28.92 (50 day MVA, 28.33). Breakout: 34.67, on minimum volume of 299,000. Stop: 32.24.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $30 calls to buy (CRL HF; no open interests).
A trading range:
XLNX (Xilinx--$42.09; +0.91; optionable (XLQ): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: The stock is trading roughly in a range between 40 and 50 since early May, the entire pattern below the 200 day MVA (54). Found support at the 40 range after tapping below that intraday at 38.89. The stock got a nice shot of volume to move it off that low and close it near the intraday high of 42.36. Look for a run back up to 50 in the range. Money looks good.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Watch the 50, 18 and 10 MVAs at the 44 range for potential resistance if the pattern breaks down.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (XLQ IG).
Continued:
WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.75; -0.07; optionable (FMQ): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Still in the 5.5-month cup with handle base. Volume remains below average but was higher Friday (539,400; avg. 483,181) on the slight move down. The low of 27.60 tested the 18 day MVA. We continue to look for support there, for a move up in the handle to breakout. Relative strength is ahead of price. Target: $35-38.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 29.55, on volume of 725,000 or more. Stop: 27.48 (18 day MVA is at 27.60).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (FMQ HE).
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$62.99; +1.39; optionable (DGX): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Made a move up from Thursday's doji (when DGX closed below the 18 day MVA at 62.89), hitting a high of 64 before closing back on top of that moving average. Volume was up with price at 549,200 (avg. 398,000), so with the hold above support we are looking for the stock to make a move up toward resistance in the 66 range. If DGX can break over that, it'll have a good chance of making a breakout from this 5.5-month cup with handle. Breakout point will be above that, however. Money flow is solid and buying decent, with relative strength out ahead of price. Target: $75-77.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 67 on volume of 741,000 or better. Stop: 62.31 (18 day MVA, 62.89). Breakout: 70.28, on volume of 597,000 or better. Stop: 65.36.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $57.50 calls to buy (DGX HY). Breakout: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (DGX HL).
Puts:
PDLI (Protein Design--$77.99; +3.85; optionable (RPV): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: The stock closed above the 18 day MVA (77.58) but under the 200 day MVA (78.31) on lower volume of 1.4 million (avg. 1.8 million). The high of 78.67 tapped near the 10 day MVA. If the market sells down this week we will look at buying puts on a break below the 18 day, with a target near 70, just above the 50 day MVA (69.20).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Below the 77.58 level (18 day MVA) on stronger volume in market selling. The stock may try to test the 18 day MVA after breaking it, so look for an entry point on a move back down from there. Watch support at the 50 day MVA range.
POSITION: August $90 puts to buy (RPV TR; low open interests).
VRTS (Veritas--$59.96; -0.06; optionable (VIV): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: The stock broke the 50 day MVA Wednesday (back up at 67) and hit a low of 57.31 Friday before closing just below Thursday's closing price of 60.02. It pulled off a high of 62.64 despite the stronger volume, and if it cannot break back over 60, we will look for a put down to the 50 range if the market sells off. If it can make the move back over the high and gets to the 50 day MVA, we will look at making the play there.
BUY POINT: On a move below 57 in market selling.
POSITION: August $60 puts to buy (only the delta of 0.889 was listed for the option at the time of this writing. Please check with your broker Monday morning; VIV TL).
Good Investing!
Your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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