|
|
world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
That remains the biggest question right now for us, i.e., when the market will make a move up from this level. It could still roll over and tank, but Thursday and Friday showed buyers still willing to step into the breach even when companies were offering lower to little or no 2004 guidance. While some will argue that indicates future economic weakness, to us that only means companies are being conservative and that this pullback based on that conservative approach after testing the upper end of the range is an opportunity for leading stocks that have come back. Friday we issued some alerts to take advantage of that pullback and rebound when some internet leaders started to take off. After the rest of the market finds its footing here the overall market may be ready to advance once again as well.
The leaders tend to lead, and we will be looking for those starting similar moves ahead of the market as a whole. We are also going to look at some index plays as the 50 day MVA is a good entry point for those and we saw some action on Friday that we liked. Again, it may take another session or two before the indexes get their upside legs under them, but we will be looking for them to rally after some leaders start up off of their support to pave the way.
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1865.59
Resistance: The 18 day MVA (1897). The September high (1913). The near top of the channel (1955). The second, higher channel hit in September is at 1975ish. Then 2000 to 2050, the early January 2002 double top.
Support: 1860 to 1865. The 50 day MVA (1848). The March/August up trendline (1844).
S&P 500: Closed at 1028.91
Resistance: The 18 day MVA (1034) and 10 day MVA (1036). 1040, the September highs. 1054 (October highs) and 1060 (the August/September up trendline). 1050 and 1080 from February 2002 lows. 1100 to 1150, the early 2002 double top.
Support: 1030 to 1032 (early September highs) is not totally broken. The exponential 50 day MVA (1021). The top of the summer range at 1015. 1010 the early September highs. 975 (December 1997 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9582.46
Resistance: The 18 day MVA (9646) and the 10 day MVA (9665). 9686 (September high) may act as some resistance. 9800 (April and May 2002 lows) pushed it back again. 10,000 is the candle that attracts the moth.
Support: 9588 the early September highs are trying to hold. The exponential 50 day MVA (9516). 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the recent summer range. 9353 (top of summer range). 9250 to 9236, the early June intraday high.
Economic Calendar
10-27-03
Existing Home sales, September (10:00): 6.30M expected, 6.47M August.
New home sales, September (10:00): 1.113M expected, 1.150M August.
10-28-03
Durable goods orders, September (8:30): 1.2% expected, -1.1% August.
FOMC meeting (2:15): Results typically at 2:15ET. No change in interest rates expected. Fed will see continued improvement in econmic activity.
10-30-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 385K expected, 386K prior.
Employment Cost Index, Q3 (8:30): 0.9% expected, 0.9% prior.
GDP, Advanced, Q3 (8:30): 5.8% expected, 3.3% Q2.
Help wanted index, September (10:00): 38 expected, 37 August.
FOMC minutes (2:00)
10-31-03
Personal income, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% August.
Personal spending, September (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.8% August.
Michigan sentiment, revised for October (9:45): 89.5 expected, 89.4 in September.
Chicago PMI, October (10:00): 54.5 expected, 51.2 September.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Friday:
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Split:
Play Date: 10/25/2003
ADTN (Adtran--$66.54; +0.38; optionable): Telecom equipment. Splits 3:2 on 12-16-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adtn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After peaking at 75 in early October, ADTN has dropped back with the rest of the market the past two weeks, coming to rest just over the 50 day MVA (64.12). The move back was on lower, below average volume. This is where you want to see a stock hold and start back up on rising volume if it is going to make another move. Thus we want to see it make a strong jump on strong volume. Our target initially is the prior high at 75.
Volume: 693.046K Avg Volume: 1.035M
BUY POINT: $66.77 Volume=1.1M Target=$75 Stop=$63.98
POSITION: RQA LM - Dec. $65c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adtn.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/25/2003
NCI (Navigant Consulting--$14.84; +0.1; no options): Consulting services for companies at risk of lawsuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nci.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NCI is working on the handle to a nice 8 week base sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is rising rapidly ahead of price, and that often leads the price with it. Has shown some mega volume spikes on up sessions the past two weeks, and those are also often precursors to breakouts.
Volume: 305K Avg Volume: 372.997K
BUY POINT: $15.41 Volume=559K Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nci.html
Play Date: 10/24/2003
SINA (Sina.com--$42; +4.72; optionable): Chinese internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After peaking at 45 in late September, SINA and the other foreign internets fell hard back to the 50 day MVA (36.83), in need of a rest after a strong run. SINA has moved laterally the past 4 weeks, and looks to be forming a double bottom over the 50 day. It sold down to that level Thursday, showing a tight doji. Friday it shot higher, spurred by SOHU's big earnings numbers. We issued an alert to alert subscribers on that move as it shot higher on big volume. Still a buy on this move.
Volume: 17.839M Avg Volume: 10.416M
BUY POINT: New: 42.22 Volume=15M Target=$50 (initial) Stop=$39.42
POSITION: NOQ CH - Mar. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sina.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$67.8; +2.02; optionable): Online education.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. UOPX was a split candidate and still is, though it chased us out of positions with a deep test below the 50 day MVA (65.90). It has recovered and Friday was back over the 50 day, rallying up to the 18 day on the close. A volatile stock and still a potentially troublesome pattern, but it can run like the wind. Looking for a strong volume move over the 18 day MVA.
Volume: 196.798K Avg Volume: 243.353K
BUY POINT: $68.35 Volume=315K Target=$82 Stop=$66.42
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
^SOXX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$457.96; +1.16; optionable): Semiconductor index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^soxx.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. SOX is making its second test of the 50 day MVA (445.08) this month, coming back with the rest of the market but showing a nice, tight hammer doji, tapping at the 50 day on the Friday low (448.72) and rallying back to actually close positive on the session. Very nice action at the 50 day MVA, just what you want to see. A bit aggressive, but there were many stocks showing solid action off of support Friday.
Volume: 924.569K Avg Volume: 707.382K
BUY POINT: $462.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$492 Stop=$459.74
POSITION: SXX LL - Dec. $460c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/^soxx.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/16/2003
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$15.28; -0.04; no options): Taiwan telecom services provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. New issued in August. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (15.17) last week on below average volume as it continues the handle to its very nice 15 week base. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume verssu 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Just waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 486.9K Avg Volume: 861.673K
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cht.html
Play Date: 10/16/2003
JADE (LJ Intl.--$4.35; 0; no options): Jewelry design and marketing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jade.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. JADE continues to form the handle to its 15 week base, working over the 18 day MVA (4.36) on very low volume and in a very tight range. Accumlation in the base is a solid 4 to 1 and money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Very solid and we like how the action has quieted down as that typically precedes a breakout.
Volume: 47.05K Avg Volume: 129.137K
BUY POINT: $5.04 Volume=235K Target=$6.32 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jade.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
OLGC (Orthologic--$6.96; +0.13; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/olgc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. OLGC is stepping up the 10 day MVA (6.75) after a big breakout early in the month. Monday it shot higher on a volume surge, and then moved laterally back toward the 10 day as volume backed off and the market sold down. Friday it started up. Jus tneeds some volume.
Volume: 129.12K Avg Volume: 256.453K
BUY POINT: $7.15 Volume=342K Target=$8.58 Stop=$6.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/olgc.html
Play Date: 10/23/2003
LOUD (Loudeye--$2.40; -0.07; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/loud.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still trying to get up and go, LOUD has been up and down last week as it tries to make the move out of its 14 week base. No volume Friday as it gapped higher and faded, but it still looks solid with excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Just letting it make the move and of course we want to see volume surge when it moves through the buy point. Excellent money flow.
Volume: 1.111M Avg Volume: 2.418M
BUY POINT: $2.64 Volume=3.6M Target=$3.45 Stop=$2.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/loud.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$62.89; -0.61; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. How can it look so good and not take off? Because the market is not quite ready. TARO is as it continues its sideways move over the 18 day MVA (61.85), tapping that level on the intraday lows and rebounding. Low volume during the consolidation in a tight range. Looks ready for the next move out of the 12 week base.
Volume: 190.192K Avg Volume: 323.707K
BUY POINT: New: $65.12 (orig. $61.51) Volume=501K Target=$73 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: QTT AL - Jan. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/taro.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Earnings season still churns onward and still a lot of action ahead. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements.
ACV: No split on 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. A leader so letting it continue the run.
APPB: Forecast 10-29-03 after the market closes.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings. A dip below the 18 day MVA but recovered Friday. Still a buy over 68.25.
BCR: No split on 10-15-03 after the close but shot higher.
CEDC: Forecast 11-11-03.
CFC: No split on 10-23-03 before the market opens with earnings. Soared again on earnings.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
DLTR: Forecast 11-25-03 after the close.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
LIZ: Forecast 10-30-03 before the open.
LM: No split on 10-22 with earnings. Letting this leader continue to run.
NTE: Forecast 10-27-03 before the open.
ORLY: Forecast 10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03 after the market closes. Continuing the move higher and on solid
VRTS: No split announced on 10-22-03 after the close. Excellent action and still could see a split over the next week.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2003
CEDC (Central European District--$32.67; +0.81; no options): Imports and distributes alcoholic beverages, cigars, and other vices in Poland. Forecast to announce a split on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has snot confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-7-03 at a stock price of $30.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CEDC broke out in late September and rallied hard up to 38 where it peaked and came back to test the 18 day MVA (31.88). It tapped that level Wednesday and again Thursday, showing a doji before rallying Friday off that level though volume faded. This has been a leading stock and we are looking for a strong volume move back up through the 10 day MVA to initiate a position. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the base with excellent money flow. A leader we are looking to catch on the move back up.
Volume: 151.645K Avg Volume: 187.924K
BUY POINT: $32.94 Volume=282K Target=$39.55 Stop=$31.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cedc.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$36.75; +0.22; optionable): Apparel. Forecast to announce a split on 10-30-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 12-9-01 at a stock price of $50.30. The shareholder meeting was in May.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Coming off the bottom of the handle to a 15 week base showing 4 to 3 accumulation. A nice, below average volume pullback that had held the 18 day MVA (36.27) on the lows. Money flow is leading higher and we are just waiting for LIZ to provide the breakout move.
Volume: 551.4K Avg Volume: 639.191K
BUY POINT: $37.12 Volume=959K Target=$44.55 Stop=$36.12
POSITION: LIZ DG - Apr. $35c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/liz.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHS (Chicos Fas--$34.81; -0.67; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-2-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-27-02 at a stock price of $37.74. Prior to this split CHS has announced other splits in December: 12-01 and 12-99, so December is a favored month. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CHS has moved back down to the 18 day MVA (34.84) as it tests the breakout from its short double bottom with handle pattern in early October. Volume was up Friday to average as it made the test and held that support. It is right over the high in the pattern at 34, and combined with the 18 day MVA this is a very good place for it to hold and start the next leg up after the breakout.
Volume: 1.158M Avg Volume: 1.129M
BUY POINT: New: $36.65 (orig. $34.62) Volume=1.8M Target=$41.53 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: CHS BG - Feb. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
CPWM (Cost Plus World Market--$40.04; +0.05; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-20-99 at a stock price of $47.The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpwm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After getting a bit wild in August, CPWM recovered and then started forming the current 8 week base. It has used the 50 day MVA (39.09) as the bottom for the pattern, but after the last rally higher it has come back to the 18 day MVA (39.90) and looks to be making a higher low that is a handle to the base. Very low volume this month as it has worked laterally and putting the finishing touches on the base. Accumulation is positive at 2 to 1 during the recent base with solid money flow and relative strength ready to break higher. Friday CPWM started to surge higher on sharply higher, average volume, but it gave most of the move back. Flexing its muscles a bit in a down market.
Volume: 206.736K Avg Volume: 224.399K
BUY POINT: $41.22 Volume=337K Target=$49.45 Stop=$39.78
POSITION: CUS BH - Feb. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cpwm.html
Play Date: 10/23/2003
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$37.66; +0.16; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: A habitual splitter through 2000 (4 splits in 5 years), DLTR is approaching its split price once again. Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-25-00 at a stock price of $56.69.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Cup. Still working on an orderly 8 week cup base, moving up to form the right side of the base. Volume has improved as it makes the move. Would like to see it form a handle here, a lateral and slightly lower move below 38 that would work to shake out the last sellers. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base that is acting as the handle to a much larger 17 month double bottom pattern. Nice action and we will be patient and let it form up and make the breakout move. Now it might try a breakout without a handle; if it moves on strong volume we will go ahead and start some positions then see if it comes back any to form a handle.
Volume: 1.259M Avg Volume: 1.539M
BUY POINT: $37.92 Volume=2.3M Target=$45.55 Stop=$35.94
POSITION: DQO BU - Feb. $37.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dltr.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
NTE (Nam Tai Electronics--$33.20; +1.84; optionable): Hong Kong based telecom and consumer electronic equipment manufacturing and design consultant. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for1 split on 6-20-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $33. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-8-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nte.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. NTE started its run in July with a strong breakout. It made 4 bounces off the 10 and 18 day MVA (32.24, 31.47) before making a test of the 50 day MVA (28.14). That is typical action for a stock in a strong uptrend after a breakout: bouncing 4 to 5 times up the short term MVA and then selling back to test the 50 day MVA before starting back up for another run up the short term MVA. It started to rally Monday and Tuesday but then dumped back Thursday, showing a doji on the 18 day. Friday it started back up, again making a higher low. Looking for some more volume for another entry point. Again, it just split in July, but stocks such as NTE with high growth rates and are just starting their runs tend to announce a few quick splits.
Volume: 843.1K Avg Volume: 827.814K
BUY POINT: $34.40 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.25 Stop=$31.88
POSITION: NTE CF - Mar. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nte.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$39.5; -0.3; optionable): Retail auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings or on 11-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events. BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Nice jump higher Thursday but in the market turbulence Friday it tested the 18 day MVA on the low (39) and then rebounding t recoup most of the losses. Still below average volume on the moves. ORLY has peaked twice at 40, and we are looking for a volume move over that level for new positions. ORLY is a solid leader, and looks ready to start the next leg.
Volume: 249.42K Avg Volume: 340.377K
BUY POINT: New: $40.25 (orig. $39.48) Volume=350K Target=$47.05 Stop=$38.68
POSITION: OQR BH - Feb. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
End part 2 of 3
|
world stock market
us stock market
|
