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Begin part 3 of 3
Play Date: 10/25/2003
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$62.48; +1.2; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA (60.98). After a nice run up the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA), PDCO fell back after a breakout attempt 7 sessions back. It fell back to the 18 day MVA and then rallied Thursday and Friday. Friday volume was back below average, so the solid looking move was not that great. Want to see it break 62.50 on some serious volume.
Volume: 327.9K Avg Volume: 635K
BUY POINT: $62.72 Volume=755K Target=$75 Stop=$60.88
POSITION: DOU AL - Jan. $60c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$35.8; +0.1; optionable): Application software. No split announced 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings, but good results and it is moving well. Still looking for a possible split announcement this week.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Thursday VRTS was making the breakout move on its strong earnings, but it gave the breakout back. Friday it tested lower but closed positive. Looks very good in its 7 week base. Just looking for the next breakout move on strong volume.
Volume: 6.736M Avg Volume: 6.745M
BUY POINT: Breakout: $36.25 Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.88
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/23/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$64.57; -0.66; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 11-6-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Continues to move laterally over the 50 day MVA (63.44) on very low, below average volume. Tried to make the move Thursday but could not hold it Friday. It is moving at the bottom of a short 5 week base, and we are looking for it to start back up and form the right side of the base.
Volume: 1.721M Avg Volume: 3.71M
BUY POINT: $66.06 Volume=4M Target=$75 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: BSX AM - Jan. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/04/2003
HOTT (Hot Topic--$26.65; -0.6; optionable): Youth apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. HOTT continues to test the 18 day (26.42) after a strong surge off the 50 day MVA to start the month. Volume has turned up the past three sessions as it has come back to hold right on top of the tops of the prior base. Solid money flow and relative strength supporting the move. Looking for that high volume jump back up.
Volume: 924.569K Avg Volume: 707.382K
BUY POINT: New: $27.72 (orig. $25.39) Volume=748K Target=$30.38 Stop=$26.71
POSITION: UHO BE - Feb. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hott.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACV 08/04 Test 18 62.21 -0.54 58.45 67.45 277K 400K 60.95
Current. Pull back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in an uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
ACV 07/19 BO 62.21 -0.54 54.8 65.85 277K 400K 60.95
Current.
APPB 10/13 BO 34.06 +0.41 34.62 41.55 317K 750K 32.78
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up and close above the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in good shape.
AV 09/25 Flat 12.78 -0.25 11.38 13.65 4.9M 4.4M 12.55
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied closing just above the 18 day MVA on average volume. Tapped 13.19 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain. Testing the breakout.
AVP 08/14 Test 50 67.12 -0.8 66.68 76.32 1M 1.7M 66.74
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied to close above the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape.
BCR 10/04 Cup hdl 79.32 +0.5 73.05 83.55 376K 563K 76.95
BSX 10/23 Test 50 64.57 -0.66 66.06 75 1.7M 4M 63.88
Buy Not Hit. Tested the simple 50 day MVA and rallied to close showing a doji above the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
BSX 09/29 Test 50 64.57 -0.66 65.45 69.45 1.7M 4.5M 63.38
Current.
CECO 07/31 FlyPlat 52.35 +0.67 42.86 47.62 1.4M 1M 47.45
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
CECO 07/19 Test 18 52.35 +0.67 37.88 43.28 1.4M 1.2M 47.45
Current.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 52.35 +0.67 31.28 36.73 1.4M 1M 47.45
Current.
CELL 10/02 Test 18 24.69 -0.1 23.25 28 834K 1M 24.68
Current. Tested support at 22.45 and rallied on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
CELL 09/20 FlyPlat 24.69 -0.1 22.57 27 834K 538K 24.68
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 24.69 -0.1 12.83 15.51 834K 225K 24.68
Current.
CFC 09/27 Cup hdl 104.94 +0.51 78.38 89.95 5M 3.4M 96.45
Current. More volatile session with 108 at the high and 102.75 at the low showing a doji on much lower, but still above average volume. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
CHS 10/04 Dbl btm 34.81 -0.67 34.62 41.53 1.2M 1.8M 34.92
Current. Pull back to close on the 18 day MVA on higher, but still only average volume. In a strong sector needs to hold here.
CHT 10/16 Cup hdl 15.28 -0.04 15.62 18.75 487K 1.1M 14.88
Buy Not Hit. Gapped below the 10 day MVA at the open and rallied on below average volume. Still in good shape and moving up the 10 day MVA.
COCO 09/20 DB hdl 56.79 -0.62 59.42 69 430K 1.1M 56.05
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied to close below the simple 50 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
COH 09/20 PreSplt 33.65 -0.1 30.06 34.55 1.5M 1.2M 32.12
Current. Pull back on average volume. Managed to retain most of yesterday's great move.
COLM 08/14 Flat 55.52 -1.49 54.12 64.95 354K 475K 56.05
Exited. Exited with trailing stop as stock tanked below the 18 day MVA on above average volume.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 9.85 -0.27 6.5 8.12 38K 200K 9.38
Current. Pull back to close on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 6.2 -0.05 4.32 5.38 241K 315K 5.96
Current. Pull back on very low volume. Continue to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 21.64 -0.03 22.25 26 778K 2.9M 20.69
Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Continues to make a low volume lateral move along the 10 day MVA.
DJO 09/11 Cup 16.12 +0.31 14 16.45 26K 100K 15.46
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the breakout.
DLTR 10/23 Cup 37.66 +0.16 37.92 45.55 1.3M 2.3M 35.94
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
EASI 10/14 A Wedge 62.5 -1.3 65.54 75 160K 287K 62.94
Buy Not Issued. Fell to close below the 18 day MVA on higher volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 54.94 +0.66 53.78 60 7.8M 9M 57.25
Current. Gapped down to open at support at 54 and rallied on below average volume. Strong stock giving it time to recover.
EBAY 03/08 BO 54.94 +0.66 40.04 46 7.8M 8M 57.25
Current.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 4.67 -0.04 4.3 5.22 232K 300K 4.42
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on below average volume. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 12.03 +0.03 11.24 13.38 340K 350K 11.66
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. Managed to retain last Friday's great move. Testing the breakout.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 12.03 +0.03 9.33 11.12 340K 400K 11.66
Current.
ENMD 09/17 Cup 4.99 -0.05 5.39 6.72 343K 890K 4.86
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied to close on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Tapped 5.08 at the day's high, but could not hold the entire gain. Needs to hold here and rebound.
ERES 09/27 Test 50 43.8 -1.85 36.88 43.94 1.1M 981K 40.42
Current. Pull back to loose most of Thursday's gain on much lower, above average volume.
ET 09/18 Cup hdl 10.24 +0.06 10.8 12.94 5M 7M 10.22
Current. More volatile session with 10.90 at the high and 9.80 (simple 50 day MVA)on lower, above average volume. Held at support. Needs to hold here.
GGP 10/14 FlyPlat 73.76 -0.49 75.12 86.25 116K 275K 73.58
Current. Pull back to close slightly below the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Testing the breakout.
HAR 09/20 FlyPlat 123.27 +2.77 101.68 117 446K 374K 113
Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
HOTT 10/04 Dbl btm 26.65 -0.6 25.39 30.38 925K 748K 26.32
Current. Pull back to close just below the 10 day MVA on average volume. Tapped 26.10 and rallied. Testing the breakout.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 31.12 +0.05 29.05 34.55 3.3M 4.7M 29.91
Current. More volatile with 31.64 at the high and 30.83 at the low. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on higher, but below average volume.
JADE 10/16 Cup hdl 4.35 0 5.04 6.32 47K 235K 4.45
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA at the day's high, but could not hold the gain showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
JAH 09/06 Cup hdl 36.8 +0.16 38.05 45.5 137K 270K 36.42
Buy Not Issued. Moved up to close on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Tapped the 10 day MVA, but could not hold the gain. Still in good shape.
JBLU 10/11 Test BO 56.4 -5.4 68.12 78 5.7M 1.9M 65.05
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop as stock tanked below the simple 50 day MVA on very strong volume.
JBLU 07/26 BO 56.4 -5.4 46.32 55.64 5.7M 1.5M 64.36
Exited.
KFX 09/27 FlyPlat 6.08 +0.03 5.24 6.62 154K 137K 5.71
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji above the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Could be ready for next move up.
KRON 10/07 PreSplt 55.51 -0.94 57.62 67.55 229K 239K 55.45
Current. Thudded down to close on the 50 day MVA on higher above average volume. Needs to hold here, but may test down further.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 78.19 -0.21 58.5 67.78 669K 610K 76.38
Current. Narrow trading range showing a tight doji on lower,but very strong volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
LOUD 10/23 Flat 2.4 -0.07 2.64 3.45 1.1M 3.6M 2.46
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
LSI 09/29 Dbl Top 8.5 -0.09 9.25 7.51 6M 6M 8.88
Current. More volatile with 8.37 at the low (50 day MVA) and 8.78 at the high forming a tight doji on much lower, but still above average volume.
MOBE 09/15 Cup hdl 8.5 -0.13 8.7 10.88 532K 810K 8.83
Current. Narrow trading range showing a doji on much lower, but above average volume. May continue with relief bounce, before it rolls over.
MYL 09/30 Test 50 27.4 -0.21 25.93 29.72 1.3M 2.1M 27.18
Current. Pull back to close on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Testing the breakout.
NEXM 10/14 Cup hdl 4.9 +0.02 5.03 6.28 149K 292K 4.68
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
NSM 09/17 BO 36.84 +0.21 35.35 42 3.3M 5M 36.28
Current. Moved up to close on the 18 day MVA on average volume. Needs to hold here.
NTE 10/18 Test 18 33.2 +1.84 34.4 41.25 836K 1.2M 31.88
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and made a great move to close over the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape.
NXG 10/15 Cup 1.92 +0.02 1.89 2.48 673K 684K 1.78
Current. Continue lateral move above the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume.
OLGC 10/18 Test BO 6.96 +0.13 7.15 8.58 129K 342K 6.65
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied as stock continues to make its lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
ORBK 10/14 DB hdl 22.22 -0.38 24.31 29 211K 200K 22.89
Current. Doji on strong volume so giving it another session
or two to make the bounce up from the doji.
ORLY 08/19 Flat 39.5 -0.3 39.48 47.05 249K 350K 38.68
Current. Pull back on higher, but still below average volume. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied. Managed to retain most of Thursday's gain.
PKI 10/09 DB hdl 17.21 +0.14 17.18 20.65 933K 1.1M 16.21
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there. Did not like Wednesday's action so will wait to enter the play.
PLAB 10/22 Put 19.94 +0.03 20.32 17.75 848K 1.1M 22
Buy Not Issued. Relief bounce on slightly higher above average volume. May bounce up further before it tanks.
PSUN 10/11 DB hdl 21.8 -0.35 24.12 28.94 2.3M 2.3M 22.54
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 20.61 at the low and rallied to close on the 50 day MVA on much stronger, above average volume.
RI 09/30 Cup hdl 25.67 -0.29 27.72 33 238K 750K 25.78
Pull back to hold just below the 18 day MVA on slightly higher, but below average volume. Needs to hold here.
RMD 10/11 FlyPlat 45.05 0 46.82 53.88 47K 215K 44.66
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 10 day MVA, but could not hold the gain to close showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on low volume. Continue lateral move.
ROST 09/18 Test 50 51.39 -0.12 52.95 62.55 803K 850K 51.12
Exited. Exited the play as the stock fell further.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 30.28 +0.26 30.35 36.75 2.2M 6M 29.25
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied to close over the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Ready for next move up.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 30.28 +0.26 26.3 30.94 2.2M 6M 29.25
Current.
SEAC 09/06 Cup 14.37 0 12.37 14.85 439K 345K 14.92
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop as stock tanked below the 18 day MVA on above average volume.
SIGA 10/07 Cup hdl 2.39 -0.04 2.41 3.12 207K 450K 2.32
Current. More volatile session with 2.44 at the high and 2.29 at the low showing a tight doji on much lower, but above average volume.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 42 +4.72 41.55 50 18M 15M 39.42
Current. Entered the play as the stock made explosive move on excellent volume surge.
SINA 09/09 Cup 42 +4.72 36.15 41 18M 12M 39.42
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 42 +4.72 32.2 38.25 18M 10M 39.42
Current.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 37.2 +4.39 37.69 45 15M 9M 34.85
Current. Entered the play as the stock made a huge gap up and exploded higher on excellent volume surge.
SWC 10/22 Cup 6.85 +0.1 7.24 9.05 240K 510K 6.75
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the simple 50 day MVA and move up to close over the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Should move up from here.
SYK 09/20 Flat 81.51 +0.57 78.97 90.25 888K 1.1M 78.55
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
SYMC 10/18 Flat 65.59 +0.28 67.88 77.94 3.1M 5M 64.77
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in good shape.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 62.89 -0.61 61.51 73 190K 501K 61.32
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
TIWI 10/16 Cup hdl 5.58 +0.13 5.57 7 224K 350K 5.19
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on on average volume. Still in uptrend.
TRKN 10/23 DB hdl 6.62 +0.02 7.02 8.84 77K 205K 6.53
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied. Tapped 6.78 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain. Still in the pattern.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 40.55 +0.25 28.06 31.44 356K 494K 37.96
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 40.55 +0.25 26.62 30 356K 500K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 40.55 +0.25 23.42 27.62 356K 603K 37.96
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 40.55 +0.25 21.88 26 356K 603K 37.96
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 40.55 +0.25 19.3 22.19 356K 577K 37.96
Current.
TSYS 10/14 Test 18 5.29 -0.51 5.05 6.15 403K 120K 4.98
Current. Gapped down to open and then fell to close on the 10 day MVA. Tapped 6.00 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain on slightly lower, but above average volume. Still in good shape.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 5.29 -0.51 3.54 4.45 403K 120K 4.98
Current.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 27.45 +0.14 27.65 33.18 14M 18M 25.68
Current. Entered the play. Tested the 18 day MVA and made a fierce rally up on slightly above average volume.
URBN 10/18 Rv H&S 30.35 -0.33 33.61 40 568K 953K 31.36
Current. More volatile session with 31.35 at the high (10 day MVA) and 29.91 at the low showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
USNA 10/14 Test BO 62.85 -0.98 64.12 73.75 238K 314K 59.63
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on lower, but still above average volume. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied. Managed to retain most of Thursday's move.
UTSI 09/23 Put 31.2 -2.86 34.88 31.78 12M 5M 31.78
Target Hit. Took the gain as the stock plummeted below support of 32 on strong volume surge.
VRTS 10/04 Test 50 35.8 +0.1 35.77 42.88 6.7M 1M 34.62
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied moving up on below average volume. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
YUM 10/01 Flat 33 -0.09 31.99 37.55 849K 1.6M 31.22
Buy Not Issued. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on below average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 61.17 -0.83 51.12 59.55 2.3M 3M 58.94
Current. Pull back on lower, but still above average volume. Tapped 59.80 at the day's low and rallied. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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