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Begin part 2 of 2
The leaders tend to lead, and we will be looking for those starting similar moves ahead of the market as a whole. We are also going to look at some index plays as the 50 day MVA is a good entry point for those and we saw some action on Friday that we liked. Again, it may take another session or two before the indexes get their upside legs under them, but we will be looking for them to rally after some leaders start up off of their support to pave the way.
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1865.59
Resistance: The 18 day MVA (1897). The September high (1913). The near top of the channel (1955). The second, higher channel hit in September is at 1975ish. Then 2000 to 2050, the early January 2002 double top.
Support: 1860 to 1865. The 50 day MVA (1848). The March/August up trendline (1844).
S&P 500: Closed at 1028.91
Resistance: The 18 day MVA (1034) and 10 day MVA (1036). 1040, the September highs. 1054 (October highs) and 1060 (the August/September up trendline). 1050 and 1080 from February 2002 lows. 1100 to 1150, the early 2002 double top.
Support: 1030 to 1032 (early September highs) is not totally broken. The exponential 50 day MVA (1021). The top of the summer range at 1015. 1010 the early September highs. 975 (December 1997 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9582.46
Resistance: The 18 day MVA (9646) and the 10 day MVA (9665). 9686 (September high) may act as some resistance. 9800 (April and May 2002 lows) pushed it back again. 10,000 is the candle that attracts the moth.
Support: 9588 the early September highs are trying to hold. The exponential 50 day MVA (9516). 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the recent summer range. 9353 (top of summer range). 9250 to 9236, the early June intraday high.
Economic Calendar
10-27-03
Existing Home sales, September (10:00): 6.30M expected, 6.47M August.
New home sales, September (10:00): 1.113M expected, 1.150M August.
10-28-03
Durable goods orders, September (8:30): 1.2% expected, -1.1% August.
FOMC meeting (2:15): Results typically at 2:15ET. No change in interest rates expected. Fed will see continued improvement in econmic activity.
10-30-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 385K expected, 386K prior.
Employment Cost Index, Q3 (8:30): 0.9% expected, 0.9% prior.
GDP, Advanced, Q3 (8:30): 5.8% expected, 3.3% Q2.
Help wanted index, September (10:00): 38 expected, 37 August.
FOMC minutes (2:00)
10-31-03
Personal income, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% August.
Personal spending, September (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.8% August.
Michigan sentiment, revised for October (9:45): 89.5 expected, 89.4 in September.
Chicago PMI, October (10:00): 54.5 expected, 51.2 September.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2003
^SOXX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$457.96; +1.16; optionable): Semiconductor index
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. SOX is making its second test of the 50 day MVA (445.08) this month, coming back with the rest of the market but showing a nice, tight hammer doji, tapping at the 50 day on the Friday low (448.72) and rallying back to actually close positive on the session. Very nice action at the 50 day MVA, just what you want to see. A bit aggressive, but there were many stocks showing solid action off of support Friday.
Volume: 924.569K Avg Volume: 707.382K
BUY POINT: $462.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$492 Stop=$459.74
POSITION: SXX LL - Dec. $460c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/^soxx.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
CKSW (Clicksoftware Technologies--$2.95; +0.01; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cksw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong surgin two weeks back that broke CKSW out of a 13 week flat base, CKSW is coming back to test the move, falling to the 10 day MVA (2.83) on lower volume. Accumulation in the base is a strong 3 to 0 with excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Nice little test back and Friday it was starting up off the 10 day on rising, average volume. Looking for another move higher on stronger volume to take positions.
Volume: 227.2K Avg Volume: 211.191K
BUY POINT: $3.08 Volume=300K Target=$4.05 Stop=$2.81
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cksw.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
NCI (Navigant Consulting--$14.84; +0.1; no options): Consulting services for companies at risk of lawsuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nci.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NCI is working on the handle to a nice 8 week base sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is rising rapidly ahead of price, and that often leads the price with it. Has shown some mega volume spikes on up sessions the past two weeks, and those are also often precursors to breakouts.
Volume: 305K Avg Volume: 372.997K
BUY POINT: $15.41 Volume=559K Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nci.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
NOOF (New Frontier Media--$4.5; +0.17; no options): Pay per view television and internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/noof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After surging from March to September, NOOF has eased back into the current 7 week base and is now forming the handle over the 18 day MVA (4.26). The handle is where the last sellers are shaken out, and that then allows the stock to move higher. Accumulation in the short base is a solid 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is solid and leading higher. Friday NOOF was up off the 18 day MVA on a solid shot of rising, above average volume. It looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 220.7K Avg Volume: 196.436K
BUY POINT: $4.69 Volume=280K Target=$6.09 Stop=$4.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/noof.html
Continuing plays that still look good: TARO; SINA; OLGC; ODSY; NTES; CHT; AMSWA; AKAM
Good movers Friday: GBN; GEMS; GNSC; NTES; RETK; SINA; IDT
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AKAM 10/21 Cup hdl 5.76 -0.14 6.42 8 1.4M 2.4M 5.88
Buy Not Hit. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, but average volume. Still in the pattern.
AMSWA 10/23 Test BO 5.88 -0.07 6.12 7.45 97K 150K 5.62
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but lost the gain on very low volume. Testing the breakout. Managed to retain most of Tuesday's great move.
AV 09/25 Flat 12.78 -0.25 11.38 13.65 4.9M 4.4M 12.55
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied closing just above the 18 day MVA on average volume. Tapped 13.19 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain. Testing the breakout.
BKHM 10/13 A Wedge 2.58 -0.01 2.78 3.62 2.8M 2M 2.54
Exited.
BKHM 09/13 Cup hdl 2.58 -0.01 1.94 2.62 2.8M 825K 2.54
Exited. Was selling below the 18 day MVA but rebounded to show a doji. May have cut the cord too soon but will be ready to move back in if it starts up from here.
BRLI 10/20 Cup hdl 14.24 +0.25 13.45 16.22 180K 212K 12.78
Current. Narrow trading range showing a doji on below average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
CAMD 10/09 Pennant 7.9 -0.6 8.32 10 542K 500K 7.78
Current. Volatile session Tapped 8.25 (10 day MVA) at the day's high and 7.57 at the day's low showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
CELL 10/02 Test 18 24.69 -0.1 23.25 28 834K 1M 24.68
Current. Tested support at 22.45 and rallied on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 24.69 -0.1 12.83 15.51 834K 225K 24.68
Current.
CHT 10/16 Cup hdl 15.28 -0.04 15.62 18.75 487K 1.1M 14.88
Buy Not Hit. Gapped below the 10 day MVA at the open and rallied on below average volume. Still in good shape and moving up the 10 day MVA.
CVM 10/20 Test BO 1.49 -0.09 1.61 2.05 1.2M 900K 1.38
Current. Gapped down at the open and moved further down testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. Managed to retain a portion of Tuesday's great move. Testing the breakout.
CVM 09/29 Cup hdl 1.49 -0.09 1.17 1.56 1.2M 900K 1.38
Current.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 6.2 -0.05 4.32 5.38 241K 315K 5.96
Current. Pull back on very low volume. Continue to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
DJO 09/11 Cup 16.12 +0.31 14 16.45 26K 100K 15.46
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the breakout.
DKS 10/13 Cup 43.87 -1.81 44.68 55.38 236K 603K 42.32
Current. Thudded down to close on the 10 day MVA on higher, but below average volume. Still in good shape.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 4.67 -0.04 4.3 5.22 232K 300K 4.42
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on below average volume. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 5 0 5.07 6.35 121K 264K 4.96
Current. Volatile session with 5.10 at the day's high and 4.85 at the low showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Needs to hold here.
EGOV 09/20 Cup hdl 5 0 4.8 5.68 121K 264K 4.96
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 12.03 +0.03 11.24 13.38 340K 350K 11.66
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. Managed to retain last Friday's great move. Testing the breakout.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 12.03 +0.03 9.33 11.12 340K 400K 11.66
Current.
ENMD 09/17 Cup 4.99 -0.05 5.39 6.72 343K 890K 4.86
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied to close on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Tapped 5.08 at the day's high, but could not hold the entire gain. Needs to hold here and rebound.
ESPR 10/23 BO 23.02 +0.58 23.05 27.92 850K 600K 21.44
Current. Entered the play as the stock continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
EVCI 10/20 Cup hdl 3.73 +0.13 3.4 4.38 122K 125K 3.21
Current. More volatile session with 3.90 at the high and 3.60 at the low. Gapped up at the open and moved higher on much lower, but average volume.
GBN 10/22 Cup 1.85 +0.16 1.86 2.42 828K 300K 1.68
Current. Entered the play as the stock made explosive move on excellent volume surge.
GEMS 10/22 Test BO 2.99 +0.1 2.87 3.72 650K 487K 2.61
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice move on much lower, but still above average volume.
GIGM 10/01 Cup hdl 2.79 -0.04 3.12 4.05 1.7M 2.7M 2.74
Current. More volatile with 3.07 at the high and 2.76 at the low. Stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on much lower, but still very strong volume.
GNSC 10/09 Test BO 2.66 +0.23 2.65 3.47 368K 175K 2.43
Current. Entered the play as the stock shot up on very strong volume.
IDT 10/18 Test BO 19.56 +0.44 19.51 23.28 406K 175K 18.74
Current. Entered the play as the stock made a nice gain on strong volume.
IFLO 09/22 Test BO 13 -0.04 11.29 13.55 462K 375K 11.84
Current. Continued to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
IFLO 09/09 Flat 13 -0.04 9.62 11.52 462K 426K 11.84
Current.
IRM 09/10 Put 37.14 +0.86 34.55 32 394K 500K 36.12
Current. Moved up off the 50 day MVA to close over the 200 day MVA on much higher, but below average volume. Waiting for stock to pull back.
JADE 10/16 Cup hdl 4.35 0 5.04 6.32 47K 235K 4.45
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA at the day's high, but could not hold the gain showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
LF 08/20 Cup hdl 33.75 -0.86 35.34 42 1.7M 845K 43.44
Exited. Exited the play because the stock continued to tank on above average volume.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 78.19 -0.21 58.5 67.78 669K 610K 76.38
Current. Narrow trading range showing a tight doji on lower,but very strong volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
LOUD 10/23 Flat 2.4 -0.07 2.64 3.45 1.1M 3.6M 2.46
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
NEXM 10/14 Cup hdl 4.9 +0.02 5.03 6.28 149K 292K 4.68
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
NTES 10/24 Test 50 64.55 +5.75 64.25 75 7.8M 5M 60.45
Current. Saw the internets leading higher as the rest of the market was selling down, and took that as a cue that things were getting ready to bounce. Issued an alert and moved in.
NXG 10/15 Cup 1.92 +0.02 1.89 2.48 673K 684K 1.78
Current. Continue lateral move above the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume.
NXTL 10/02 Cup hdl 22.09 +0.2 20.76 24.95 13M 27M 21.48
Current. Gapped down below the 18 day MVA at the open and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in good shape.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 22.09 +0.2 20.64 24.75 13M 24M 21.48
Current.
ODSY 10/18 Put 28 -0.1 27.8 24.65 365K 511K 28.62
Current. Moved down to hold at support on higher, but below average volume. Should continue the move down if breaks support. Next support level is at 27.
OLGC 10/18 Test BO 6.96 +0.13 7.15 8.58 129K 342K 6.65
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied as stock continues to make its lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
ONNN 10/08 Test 50 4.19 -0.11 4.58 5.75 926K 1.7M 4.22
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down at the open and rallied up to the 50 day MVA intraday on below average volume. Needs to hold here or will look to drop.
ORBK 10/14 DB hdl 22.22 -0.38 24.31 29 211K 200K 22.89
Current. Doji on strong volume so giving it another session or two to make the bounce up from the doji.
OSIS 10/11 Cup hdl 17.79 -0.52 19.25 22.95 130K 547K 18.38
Exited. Exited the play as stock tanked well below the 18 day MVA.
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 3.35 -0.02 2.55 3.24 86K 450K 3.15
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Still in good shape. Testing the breakout.
PHTN 10/22 Dbl Top 29.5 +0.8 29.64 26.05 242K 476K 30.82
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down at the open and rallied on below average volume. Needs to hold here or will look to drop.
PKI 10/09 DB hdl 17.21 +0.14 17.18 20.65 933K 1.1M 16.21
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there. Did not like Wednesday's action so will wait to enter the play.
PRSFD 09/13 A Wedge 14.6 -0.63 15.8 20.6 278K 2.8M 16.32
Exited. Exited the play as the stock tanked below the 50 day MVA on higher volume.
QLGC 10/14 Rv H&S 52.44 +0.54 52.88 63.38 3.6M 7M 51.32
Current. Gapped down to open on the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
RETK 10/06 A Wedge 10.3 +0.35 8.49 10.25 514K 776K 9.34
Current. Nice move up on average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
RMD 10/11 FlyPlat 45.05 0 46.82 53.88 47K 215K 44.66
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 10 day MVA, but could not hold the gain to close showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on low volume. Continue lateral move.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 42 +4.72 41.55 50 18M 15M 39.42
Current. Entered the play as the stock made explosive move on excellent volume surge.
SINA 09/09 Cup 42 +4.72 36.15 41 18M 12M 39.42
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 42 +4.72 32.2 38.25 18M 10M 39.42
Current.
SIRI 10/16 Cup hdl 2.38 -0.12 2.56 3.17 127M 8M 2.36
Current. More volatile session with 2.50 at the high and 2.19 at the low showing a doji just under the 10 day MVA on very strong volume. Needs to hold here. Doji could indicate that stock is ready to move up.
SNCI 10/18 Test BO 7.7 +0.07 8.06 10 16K 120K 7.44
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down at the open and rallied on very low volume. Still in good shape.
SOFO 10/02 Test BO 2.25 -0.08 2.05 2.74 251K 395K 2.11
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and moved up to 2.35 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain. Tested the breakout.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 37.2 +4.39 37.69 45 15M 9M 34.85
Current. Entered the play as the stock made a huge gap up and exploded higher on excellent volume surge.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 62.89 -0.61 61.51 73 190K 501K 61.32
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
TELM 09/30 Test BO 1.53 +0.01 1.51 2.04 2.5M 7M 1.48
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied up to 1.62 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain on below average volume.
TLCV 09/23 Cup hdl 6.97 +0.02 7.16 8.62 275K 1.1M 6.79
Current. Gapped down and moved up to close on the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
TLGD 10/22 Put 14.8 -0.69 14.98 13 96K 200K 15.82
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down at the open and moved lower on lower, but still average volume. Needs to bounce and then roll over on higher volume before we will enter.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 40.55 +0.25 23.42 27.62 356K 603K 37.96
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 40.55 +0.25 21.88 26 356K 603K 37.96
Current.
TSYS 10/14 Test 18 5.29 -0.51 5.05 6.15 403K 120K 4.98
Current. Gapped down to open and then fell to close on the 10 day MVA. Tapped 6.00 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain on slightly lower, but above average volume. Still in good shape.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 5.29 -0.51 3.54 4.45 403K 120K 4.98
Current.
TTP 10/07 Cup 3.49 -0.03 2.87 3.68 237K 221K 3.18
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied on average volume. Still in good shape.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 27.45 +0.14 27.65 33.18 14M 18M 25.68
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and fiercely rallied as the stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
UTSI 09/23 Put 31.2 -2.86 34.88 31.78 12M 5M 31.78
Target Hit. Took the gain as the stock plummeted below support of 32 on strong volume surge.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 61.17 -0.83 51.12 59.55 2.3M 3M 58.94
Current. Pull back on lower, but still above average volume. Tapped 59.80 at the day's low and rallied. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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