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Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: ARIA; EFII; CELL; RBK
Best Plays:
1) FCFS: Making the breakout on strong trade.
2) CORI: Starting back up off the 18 day MVA test.
3) CKSW: Gapping higher on some big trade. Still looks solid.
4) MANU: Great volume as it moves up off 18 day MVA.
5) MCHP: Nice, nice action as it moves up to the breakout point on volume.
6) PBY: Starting the breakout move on some solid volume.
7) TARO: Volume is starting higher. Looks ready.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/27/2003
ASML (ASML Holdings--$15.64; 0; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asml.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ASML ignroed KLAC's problems and went about putting the finishing touches on its 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), holding the 18 day MVA (15.33) as it works on the right shoulder. It has traded in a tight range the past three sessions on lower, below average volume while money flow continues to rise as the stock moves laterally. With the good accumulation and nice pattern we expect ASML to follow that money flow and make the breakout. We want to see strong volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 2.797M Avg Volume: 4.083M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $16.06. Breakout: 16.32. Volume=6.1M Target=$19.55 Stop=$15.23
POSITION: MFQ DC - Apr. $15c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asml.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
CORI (Corillian Corp.--$6.1; +0.33; no options): Internet service provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cori.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. CORI broke out of a 6 week flat base 2 weeks back, rallied to 7 and is now making a lower volume (though still above average) breakout test. Friday it tapped the 18 day MVA (5.46) on the low and started to rebound Monday on a very solid volume increase. Excellent money flow still leading higher and a solid relative strength breakout show its strength here. Very good looking and making the move back up.
Volume: 970.647K Avg Volume: 359.545K
BUY POINT: $6.19 Volume=550K Target=$7.75 Stop=$5.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cori.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
FCFS (First Cash Financial--$24.84; +1.88; no options): Pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcfs.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Something of a stretch to call it a triangle, but it has been working up the 18 day MVA (22.63) with a constant top at 24. Accumulation during the 7 week pattern is a strong 3 to 1 with some good solid volume spikes on up sessions the past week. Indeed, Monday FCFS broke out on a strong volume surge. Relative strength broke out on the strong volume move as well, a good indication of the support for the stock in the base and on the breakout move. Looks solid and a good point to pick it up.
Volume: 408.795K Avg Volume: 153.772K
BUY POINT: $25.04 Volume=250K Target=$30 Stop=$22.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fcfs.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$6.97; +0.15; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looks as if it is putting the finishing touches on the handle to its 18 week base. The handle is the lateral move where the last sellers get frustrated and sell out of the stock. Once they are gone the stock can rally as those left are the holders. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 4 to 1 and money flow is solid. Looking for a strong volume breakout over the handle high at 7.
Volume: 220.4K Avg Volume: 340.727K
BUY POINT: $7.18 Volume=511K Target=$8.97 Stop=$6.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/teo.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/25/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$49.3; +0.25; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After the solid move Friday ADVP rallied a bit further Monday, extending the breakout a hair. After hours it beat the street by 2 cents and upped 2004 guidance, something many companies have not done. Nice 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume) in the 8 week base.
Volume: 1.709M Avg Volume: 2.068M
BUY POINT: $49.18 Volume=3.1M Target=$59 Stop=$46.98
POSITION: QVC DJ - Mar. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/advp.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$5.87; +0.11; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still holding over the 10 day MVA (5.73) after the breakout attempt last week backed off, AKAM has held up well, holding the 18 week base. Need to see more volume on a continued move higher off the 10 day.
Volume: 1.725M Avg Volume: 1.733M
BUY POINT: $6.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$8 Stop=$5.88
POSITION: UMU AA - Jan. $5c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
ASL (Ashanti Goldfields--$11.2; -0.05; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on a nice little handle to its short 6 week base, moving back to tap at the 18 day MVA (11.00) on the low and again rebounding. Volume was lower and back to average as it edged back to complete the handle. Nice base ahs formed with solid 2 to 0 accumulation. Big volume spike Friday, so we are looking for a breakout this week. Strong money flow and relative strength.
Volume: 848.4K Avg Volume: 896K
BUY POINT: $11.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$14.22 Stop=$10.81
POSITION: ASL CB - Mar. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asl.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
CKSW (Clicksoftware Technologies--$3.35; +0.4; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cksw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CKSW was on the run again Monday, surging on a highe volume spike up to 3.85. Unfortunately it gave back 50 cents of the move but still managed an excellent gain on the session. Relative strength broke out on the move as well, and combined with the strong 3 to 0 accumulation it has a very solid foundation for the move higher. Looking form more from here.
Volume: 1.797M Avg Volume: 213K
BUY POINT: New: $3.42 (orig. $3.08) Volume=300K Target=$4.05 Stop=$2.81
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cksw.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
GISX (Global Imaging Systems--$27.41; +0.32; optionable): Contract services for automated office equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gisx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up on the Monday move, coming in above average as it made a strong surge to 28 on the high but gave back 32 cents on the close. A solid relative strength breakout and solid 3 to 1 accumulation set the stage for a further move. Looking for it to continue the break higher.
Volume: 278.342K Avg Volume: 199.863K
BUY POINT: $27.62 Volume=302K Target=$33.12 Stop=$26.48
POSITION: QHJ BE - Feb. $25c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gisx.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
MANU (Manugistics Group--$6.73; +0.4; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manu.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a good breakout from a 15 week base, MANU is moving laterally in a 3 week lateral consolidation, holding over the 18 day MVA (6.36) as it does. Relative strength is ready to breakout as volume surged Monday to well above average as MANU started back up off the 18 day. Looks ready breakout from this consolidation, and we want to see it make the move on continued above average volume.
Volume: 1.429M Avg Volume: 869.772K
BUY POINT: New: $7.02 (orig. $6.77) Volume=1.4M Target=$8.15 Stop=$6.27
POSITION: ZUQ AA - Jan. $5c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/manu.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
MCHP (Microchip--$28.2; +0.81; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. MCHP had a good day, rallying up to the top of the pattern on another day of above average volume, increasing on the Monday move. Nice looking 9 week base showing strong 4 to 1 accumulation. Relative strength is moving up for a breakout as the stock edges up to the breakout point from this nice accumulation pattern. A very solid base and MCHP is flying under the radar screens of many as it gets ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 3.073M Avg Volume: 2.616M
BUY POINT: $28.58 Volume=4M Target=$32.85 Stop=$26.58
POSITION: QMT AE - Jan. $25c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 10/23/2003
PBY (Pep Boys--$18.47; +0.82; optionable): Auto parts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pby.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Trying to make the breakout from its 8 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Volume was up and slightly above average on the move. We thought about taking positions but decided to see if it starts strong Tuesday with some good early volume. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout on the Monday move.
Volume: 688.8K Avg Volume: 625.227K
BUY POINT: $18.55 Volume=932K Target=$22.25 Stop=$17.25
POSITION: PBY DW - April $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pby.html
Play Date: 09/18/2003
RHAT (Red Hat--$13.68; +0.21; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhat.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Gapped higher out of the 2 week consolidation of the September breakout but was selling back from the opening price from the start. Volume was higher and above average, but given the intraday action we held off on new positions but we are still looking to pick up additional positions on a test of 13.50 and bounce on stronger volume or a move up from the close on strong trade. Excellent money flow and relative strength is already breaking out again.
Volume: 4.665M Avg Volume: 3.09M
BUY POINT: New: $13.78 (orig. $10.03) Volume=2.8M Target=New positions: 15.75 (orig. $12.22) Stop=$12.35
POSITION: RCV CV - Mar. $12.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhat.html
Play Date: 10/18/2003
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$5.96; 0; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA (5.88), holding over that level on very low, below average volume. This move continues the excellent breakout test. SVNT broke out of a 12 week cup with handle base to start the month. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the pattern and a relative strength breakout support the move. Money flow is very strong and we are just waiting for the strong break higher to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 176.37K Avg Volume: 440.318K
BUY POINT: $6.38 Volume=678K Target=$7.98 Stop=$5.93
POSITION: QTG DA - April $5c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$63.5; +0.61; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Volume was up Monday as TARO moved off the 18 day MVA (61.85) in its nice 2 week lateral consolidation of the early October breakout from its 12 week base. Very solid test, and looks as if it is just a matter of waiting for TARO to make its move.
Volume: 269.02K Avg Volume: 323.272K
BUY POINT: New: $65.12 (orig. $61.51) Volume=501K Target=$73 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: QTT AL - Jan. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
End part 2 of 3
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