stock split, stock research

Begin Part 2 of 4

THE PLAYS: A lot of stocks making great moves despite the market, including BAX, FISV, JNJ and LOW!

BONUS PLAYS:

HF (Heller Financial--$37.01; +1.89; optionable (HF): Credit Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hf.html
STATUS: Making a breakout move from a short cup with handle base. The stock remains a buy on this move, but we want to see volume come in stronger (as it was a bit lower today at 467,400; avg. 399,000). The previous closing high in the base is 37.25, but the actual high of 39.29 was reached intraday at the end of March. The stock shows strong money flow and good buying. Target: $40-42.
BUY POINT: Remains a buy on this breakout up to 38.15. Stop: 34.41 (50 day MVA, 34.05).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $35 calls to buy (HF JG).

SRCL (Stericycle--$48.00; +2.20; optionable (URL): Materials & Construction: Waste
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
STATUS: Making a strong move to break out of a double bottom with handle pattern. The handle pulled back to the 10 day MVA (45.68), support from which the stock bounded up today, moving over the buy point of 47.34. Volume was strong at 337,200 (avg. 248,227). The stock shows good money flow and high relative strength, and remains a buy on the breakout. The base formed after the stock topped out on a breakout from a cup with handle. Target: $52-54.
BUY POINT: A buy up to 49.71 on the breakout. Stop: 44.64 (18 day MVA, 44.85).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $40 or $45 calls to buy (URL HH or HI).

QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$41.82; -0.21; optionable (QQQ):
STATUS: Tapping near support on the low of 41.26. If the index breaks below that on continued selling (volume was higher at 73.3 million; avg. 69 million), we will look at the downside play. The index broke support of the 50 day MVA (46) seven days ago.
BUY POINT: Below 41.25 on continued rising volume. Initial target: 40. Not a lot of room making it a quick play.
POSITION: September $49 puts to buy (QQQ UW

DJX (1/100 Dj Indu--$105.97; -0.48; optionable (DJV):
STATUS: The index after several days of selling down caught itself at the 200 day MVA Friday and Monday, but Tuesday crossed below that support level on stronger volume (1.17 million; avg. 1.1 million). We are looking for a downside play here if the index breaks below 105.64, a low that nearly matches that of Friday (105.67). Target: 104 is the initial target.
BUY POINT: On a move below 105.64.
POSITION: August $112 puts to buy (DJV TH).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: CHBS and FITB are forecast for Thursday, with KG Friday.

BEST PLAYS: Besides the plays set forth below best plays, there are some other stocks that also look good. These include Pre-Announcement ATK; Our new Pre-Split plays; Continuing Candidate CECO; and Post-Splits JNJ, BAX, FIC, and SEBL.

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS:
1) FITB - Flat consolidation going into the forecast
2) FISV - Solid breakout move
3) ADVP - A put play
4) BMET - Still holding on strong
5) KG - Forecast for Friday
6) CHBS - Forecast for Thursday and very weak

FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$59.44; +0.41; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 6-21-01 with a board meeting. Earnings are set to be announced 7-16-01 before the market open.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split on 6-20-00 at a stock price of $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-20-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: Has developed a nice, tight, slightly descending consolidation as it tests its breakout from a cup with handle. Going into the forecast the stock has shown several dojis, tapping up to 60 at its highs and but closing in the range between the 10 and 18 day MVA's (59.47 and 59.09, respectively). In split range and looking like it might spring. We got a solid 'get ready' volume spike last Friday (today back to 1.44 million; average 1.8 million). Relative strength is solid, and the stock shows excellent relative strength and buying. We are targeting the 68-70 level for this one if we can get a breakout (high is 61.11) and a decent market. An announcement Thursday could certainly be a catalyst.
BUY POINT: A move over 60.30 on increased volume. Stop: 56.08 or just below the 50 day MVA (57.09).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (FTQ HK).

FISV (Fiserv--$60.09; +1.54; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-25-99 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $52. FISV's last two splits were announced in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The company currently has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FISV broke out of its strong pattern just as we were looking for, an ascending wedge formed after a breakout from a cup with handle. Volume spiked up today to 1.9 million (average 1.48 million) as it cleared its recent intraday high at 59.25. Has been somewhat erratic in its intraday patterns, but the last three sessions the stock has made a steady, strong rise from the 56 level, and is still a buy up to 62.21, but we are carefully watching the 63 level, the stock's high, as resistance.
BUY POINT: A move up from here on continued strong volume. Stop: Just below the 18 day MVA (56.51).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (FTQ IK).

ADVP (Advancepcs--$58.05; +2.43; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ADVP has pulled back hard, taking out its 50 day MVA (59.15) last Friday. The stock was plagued with light volume on the last part of its recent, steady ascent, but with that type of action we would expect this sort of drop. It gapped back up today, showing a loose doji just under the 50 day, and with that kind of pattern we can look for more selling back down Danger, danger danger! (in honor of Croc Week). Our initial target is at the level of support at the 50 range from November, March and April highs.
BUY POINT: After a failed test of the 50 day MVA, a move back down on continued strong selling volume (down to 859,800 today; average 841,000).
POSITION: August $65 puts to buy (QVD TM).

BMET (Biomet--$46.05; +0.11; optionable): Medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split with a board meeting 6-29-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-6-00 at a stock price of $29. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-16-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Still looking solid as moves in a little wedging pattern over the steady support of its 18 day MVA (45.16, tapped today at its low). The pattern was a star doji with big volume (19.4 million; average 1.78 million). The stock has been hitting up to 47 range at its highs before pulling back, today hitting 47.13, and an early-June intraday high hit 48.75. Looking for a sustained move. Still shows excellent relative strength, money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 47.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 44.17 (50 day at 43.18).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $45 calls to buy (BIQ JI).

KG (King Pharmaceuticals--$56.65; +1.30; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 6-22-01 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kg.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 6-2-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $54. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 6-22-01 at 3:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: Made a break today from its cup with handle, hitting a new high at 57.88 but could not hold it, pulling back to show a 'tombstone' doji. That pattern indicates a possible pullback, and we will see if it can hold support at the breakout point (56.26) or its 10 day MVA (53.84) for a move back up, which would be a solid entry point as we go toward the split on Friday. Volume has been solid on the move up the last three sessions (1.65 million; average 1.1 million), but we will look for lower volume on the pullback. Relative strength is at its high, with excellent money flow. Target: 64-65.
BUY POINT: After a pullback that holds support in the 54-56 range, a move back up on continued strong volume. Stop: 50-52.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (KG JJ).

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$32.04; +0.19; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 6-21-01 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: Has really suffered, although it is still in range going into Friday's forecast. It has recently dropped back from a high of 47.50, and after trying to hold at its 50 day MVA (36.98) the stock has fallen back heavily, consolidating with doji patterns the last four sessions in the February-March consolidation range. Volume has drifted back to a very low levels, at 172,800 today (average 500,800). Not showing any strength, but we could get an announcement to jump-start the stock. That would be a play for the very aggressive with the announcement expected with earnings, with resistance ahead at the 10 day MVA (34.67).
BUY POINT: Very aggressive: On a strong move up over 33.30 on volume near the average.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $30 calls to buy (URH IF).

PRE-SPLIT BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) LOW - Still hot
2) ESRX - Looking good for another move

LOW (Lowe's--$75.96; +1.41): Splits 2:1 on or about June 29.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Has been strong since breaking from a cup with handle in May, trending up along its short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day at 73.29 and 71.94, respectively). Monday the stock broke out of a small ascending wedge and continued up today. The move was powerful, today continuing up on increased volume that moved above the average at 3.18 million (average 3.12 million). We will see if it can continue the pre-split move, perhaps getting another strong move up from here but anticipating a move back toward support as the stock approaches 80.
PLAY: A continued move on strong volume with stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (LOW HN - low open interest).

ESRX (Express Scripts--$106.37; -0.62; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective on or about June 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: ESRX has made an outstanding run since its split announcement, and still looks strong as it has pulled back to steady support at its 10 day MVA (105.79). It reached a high of 110.35 last Friday, pulling back on lower volume Monday before holding the 10 day with a loose 'hammer' doji. The stock touched 103.76 at its low (18 day MVA at 102.97) and volume spiked up to 1.17 million (average 658,300), so we will see if we get a bounce off of this bullish pattern. We are protecting positions carefully given the strong run the stock has made.
PLAY: On a bounce from here on continued strong volume, stock and/or August $100 calls to buy (XTQ HT).

CONTINUING CANDIDATE BEST PLAYS: Some puts in here.
1) MIKE - Still in a good pattern
2) ASFC - Strong move

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$39.95; 0.00; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: MIKE has formed another handle to its cup while testing a prior breakout, and it has inched up the last two sessions after making a decent move up Friday off of its 18 day MVA (currently 38.76). Volume remains below the average (138,900 today; average 213,200), so we will see if the stock has to pull back a bit and test support (10 day at 39.41) or if it can make a breakout from here. Target on breakout: 46.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move up on increased volume near the average after a pullback that holds the 10 day MVA. Stop: 36.65. Breakout: Over 40.62 on volume of 320,000. Stop: 37.78.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IKQ IF).

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$57.21; +0.89; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 9:30 ET.
STATUS: ASFC has not been able to do much, but after holding recent lows (below the 50 day MVA, at 56.16) in its protracted handle (to a cup), the stock has made a couple of solid moves. Today saw a run on increased, above average volume of 436,000 (average 363,400), and that is encouraging given that the stock has not been able to make moves up with much power behind them of late. Just ahead is the recent high at 57.50, with the breakout at 58.50.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 57.50 with continued strong volume. Stop: 53.48, or just below recent lows at 55. Breakout: Over 58.50 on increased volume. Stop: 54.40.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (AQR GK).

POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) BRCD - Sinking.
2) DGX - Waiting for a move

BRCD (Brocade--$35.69; -1.14; optionable (UBF): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: Gapped up again but pulled back again, dropping below the low in its recent range at 35.80. Volume picked up on the selling as well, coming in at 18.3 million (average 14.9 million). On a continued drop we can look at a put play, targeting initially the 30 level.
PLAY: In a weak Nasdaq, a drop on continued strong volume, with August $45 puts to buy (UBF TI). We will keep an eye out for a bounce as the stock rides down, especially if the market starts down strong. If any bounce does not hold, that could be another entry point.

DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$63.98; +0.05; optionable): Health services. Split 2:1 June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: The stock is holding up pretty well, managing to hold its short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day at 63.60 and 63.11, respectively) as it tested down to the level of its late-May consolidation range. Today it hit up to 66.20 before pulling back to show a doji over support. Showing promise, but has not been able to hold anything. We will see if it can make a run, watching the recent intraday spike up to 70 for resistance.
PLAY: A move over 66.50 with continued strong volume (up to 611,200 today; average 398,000), with stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (DGX HL).
* * *
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
* * *
KRB (MBNA Corp--$33.53; +0.34; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-10-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm an earnings date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/krb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-14-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $40. KRB is a holding company and does not hold annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Has really tanked, dropping from its cup with handle and giving up its 200 day MVA (35.53). It moved up to 34.35 today before pulling back for a loose doji, and that pattern indicates another possible move up. However, we will need to see something sustained, and we have some time for a recovery back up toward split level before the forecast.

CHV (Chevron--$95.50; -0.20; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 before the open in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm the date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chv.html
BACKGROUND: The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: Has been moving in a nice-looking ascending wedge, but is having a bit of trouble holding on at this point. It tested back near its 50 day MVA (94.47) again today at its low of 94.96, finally closing with a doji just under its up trendline (connecting December, February and May closing lows) that supports the pattern, at 96.25. The pattern does signal a possible move back up, but we will be looking for a strong move up toward the pattern high at 98.49. With Exxon-Mobil announcing, we are looking at some other of the big oils to follow suit, and CHV looks ready. Still shows good money flow. Our target on a breakout is the 110-115 range.
BUY POINT: 98.62 on volume of 3.25 million (average 2.4 million; today 1.72 million). Stop: Just below the 50 day MVA at 94.47.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $95 calls to buy (CHV IS).

CEFT (Concord EFS--$50.02; -0.76; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $37. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 5-14-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-24-01 at 9:30 am CST at which time additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: Broke out of a nice consolidation early this month, but after hitting 54.50 at its high the stock dropped back hard. It is now trying to hold its late-May early-June consolidation range, today closing back in the lower levels of that range after hitting up to 51.66. Volume has steadily decreased after the sharp drop, today coming in at 1.87 million (average 4 million). After showing it can hold here we will need to see a strong move back up. Very much in range, and there is plenty of time before the forecast, so we will see how it goes.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding support, a move over 52 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $50 calls to buy (EQF IJ).

THQI (THQ Inc.--$54.93; +3.83; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-26-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 10-26-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $33. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-21-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized; however, the company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has been a strong performer, breaking from a cup with handle in January and making several trend runs since then, going steadily upward. We have been looking for a pullback and possible test of the 50 day MVA (46.10), but last week it made another strong move up. It now has shown clear topping signs, however, closing well off of its high of 59.83 Monday and then gapping up to a tight doji today. From this pattern we can only look for a drop back, and will see this time if it holds the short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day 54.33 and 52.18, respectively), or if it dips back for a test of the 50 day, which strong trending stocks often do.
BUY POINT: After a pullback and perhaps a consolidation in the 47-50 range, a strong move back up on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $40 or $45 calls to buy (QHI IH or QHI II).

End Part 2 of 4

stock split
stock research