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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: Many. SOX, CEDC; BHE; CPWM; EASI; HOTT; LIZ; NTE; NSM; OLGC; SBYX; SYMC, TIWI, TXN, TRKW, etc.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/28/2003
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$61.52; +0.78; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This one could develop into another split play for us, but until then we like what we see and want to be ready to get in. VAR is forming the handle to a 14 week base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Nice accumulation and the handle is where the last sellers are shaken out as the stock approaches the old high and then fades back on low volume. They get concerned it is going to crash back down and bail out. When they are gone there are no more sellers and the stock then makes the breakout on the next catalyst. That catalyst may be earnings that were reported after the close; VAR beat by 2 cents and guided higher for next quarter. This stock made us some great money after breaking out in mid-2002 and surging into July 2003. It then broke down and formed the current base that has acted to consolidate that strong upside run to this point. Now we just be patient and wait for it to blast higher on a strong volume breakout.
Volume: 531.3K Avg Volume: 719.818K
BUY POINT: $62.35 Volume=1.1M Target=$72 Stop=$59.94
POSITION: VAR BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/var.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
IT (Gartner Group--$12.80; +0.55; optionable): Business/Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/it.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. IT made us some money before and it looks ready to do the same again as it starts a breakout move from a 6 week pattern showing strong 3 to 1 accumulation. It has tossed up three high volume spikes during the pattern on up sessions; those are big accumulation sessions. It was moving on strong volume again Tuesday as it broke over the highs in the pattern at 12.79. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looking to get in on the breakout.
Volume: 1.373M Avg Volume: 384.91K
BUY POINT: $12.99 Volume=400K Target=$15.62 Stop=$12.08
POSITION: IT CV - Mar. $12.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/it.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
MSCC (Microsemi--$20.4; +1.71; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. Got a bit wild in late September as it undercut the 50 day MVA (18.03) but then rallied back sharply, continuing the accumulation pattern. Speaking of which, accumulation is a solid 4 to 2 in the 9 week base. Money flow is excellent, leading higher, and relative strength is ready to breakout. Volume was up to average; needs to be stronger on the breakout move.
Volume: 350.09K Avg Volume: 320K
BUY POINT: $20.58 Volume=480K Target=$24.72 Stop=$19.08
POSITION: QMS CD - Mar. $20c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/27/2003
CATS (Catalyst Semiconductor--$7.05; +0.4; no options): Chips for microcontrollers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cats.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Pulled back to the 18 day MVA (6.65) Monday, but then rebounded Tuesday on rising though still below average volume. Looks to be getting ready to make a breakout move, but it will need more volume. CATS made a big volume move out of an 11 week cup with handle base showing positive 2 to 1 accumulation (2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). Excellent money flow. Need to see more volume on the move.
Volume: 85.15K Avg Volume: 143.318K
BUY POINT: New: $7.12 (orig. $6.88) Volume=145K Target=$8.38 Stop=$6.52
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cats.html
Play Date: 10/16/2003
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$15.59; +0.21; no options): Taiwan telecom services provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. New issued in August. CHT started to make the breakout move Tuesday, rallying on rising though still below average volume. We were watching it closely but it just did not give a strong enough volume move. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume versus 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Again, need some more volume.
Volume: 482.4K Avg Volume: 830.272K
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cht.html
Play Date: 10/08/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$63.38; -0.12; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Another leader that may turn into a pre-announcement play for us. Looking very solid as it works laterally over the 10 day (62.99), moving on low, below average volume as it trades in a very tight range. It is tightening up but getting ready to make the next breakout move. Very nice test of the 12 week base.
Volume: 155.403K Avg Volume: 318.318K
BUY POINT: New: $65.12 (orig. $61.51) Volume=501K Target=$73 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: QTT AL - Jan. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/taro.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Earnings season still churns onward and still a lot of action ahead. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements.
ACV: No split on 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. Still solid over the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
APPB: Forecast 10-29-03 after the market closes.
AVP: No split on 10-28 before the open with earnings. Sold down to the 50 day MVA but then rebounded to hold the 18 day MVA on strong volume.
BCR: No split on 10-15-03 after the close but shot higher.
CEDC: Forecast 11-11-03. Continues to soar.
CFC: No split on 10-23-03 before the market opens with earnings. Just letting it run.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open. Super move.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
DLTR: Forecast 11-25-03 after the close.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03. No split but nice earnings and a solid move.
LIZ: Forecast 10-30-03 before the open. Stupendous move.
LM: No split on 10-22 with earnings. Letting this leader continue to run.
NTE: Forecast 10-27-03 before the open. Gave 1 share for every 10 you have, basically an 11:10 split.
ORLY: No split announced10-28-03 after the close. Strong earnings and was rallying well after hours!
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03. A leader setting up for the next move.
VRTS: No split announced on 10-22-03. Excellent action and still could see a split over the next week.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHS (Chicos Fas--$36.83; +0.6; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-2-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-27-02 at a stock price of $37.74. Prior to this split CHS has announced other splits in December: 12-01 and 12-99, so December is a favored month. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the 18 day MVA test (35.18) CHS bounced this week but volume has remained well below average on that move. Disappointing. Needed more volume as it ran up toward the October high (37.57). Still a very solid breakout in early October and a good test, but it will need more volume on the move back up. Retailers are performing well and we just want another chance to get in.
Volume: 811K Avg Volume: 1.138M
BUY POINT: New: $37.12 (orig. $34.62) Volume=1.8M Target=$41.53 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: CHS BG - Feb. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$56.73; +0.19; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-29-03 in conjunction with earnings or 11-20-03 at its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Testing 50 day MVA (56.19). The education stocks have knocked the cover off the ball, the most recent being CECO, another one of our plays. We are looking for a good report form COCO and a split announcement before the open as well to send it higher. It broke below the 50 day a couple of weeks back but has fought back, recovering on some decent volume on the upside as it moved back up. On an announcement Wednesday we will look for positions on a move over recent resistance at 58.
Volume: 1.099M Avg Volume: 723.363K
BUY POINT: $58.25 Volume=1.1M Target=$69 Stop=$56.05
POSITION: UCS BL - Feb. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$64.02; +1.73; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA (61.42). Nice break higher off the 18 day Tuesday, rallying ot a new closing high but on only slightly higher volume. Just need a bit more volume on the next move to start a position on this play.
Volume: 426.491K Avg Volume: 547K
BUY POINT: $62.72 Volume=755K Target=$75 Stop=$60.88
POSITION: DOU AL - Jan. $60c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Play Date: 09/30/2003
RI (Ruby Tuesday--$26.79; +0.84; optionable): Restaurants, casual dining. Forecast to announce a split on 12-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-11-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $19.10. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 10-7-03 at 11:00 am CT at which time no additional shares are authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ri.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. RI jumped higher to start the month, breaking out of a 12 week base with a strong volume surge. It has come back to test the 18 day MVA (25.87) and Tuesday was rallying on rising though still below average volume. Relative strength is ready to make the breakout as well, an affirmation of the move. Looking for the stock to clear the recent closing highs to move into a position.
Volume: 368.2K Avg Volume: 444.09K
BUY POINT: $27.12 Volume=750K Target=$33 Stop=$25.78
POSITION: RI AX - Jan. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ri.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
SYK (Stryker--$81.46; +0.55; optionable): Medical instruments. No split announced on 10-15-03 in conjunction with earnings. Researching the next date but SYK remains solid.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was 4-22-03 no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After great earnings, SYK jumped higher on volume and then as moved laterally below 82 but above 80. All the while the 10 day MVA (80.24) has been rising, and with these patterns, when it meets up and kisses the stock price that sends it off on its next break higher. Volume was up and above average Tuesday as SYK moved back up. Looking for continued strong volume on a breakout over the recent highs. That breakout will be where we add to positions. It is also a good place to start a new position.
Volume: 838.2K Avg Volume: 701.772K
BUY POINT: $82.12 (orig. $78.97) Volume=1.1M Target=$90.25 Stop=$78.55
POSITION: SYK AO - Jan. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$37.27; +1.19; optionable): Application software. No split announced 10-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings, but good results and it is moving well. Still looking for a possible split announcement this week.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After failing the breakout last Thursday, VRTS made the price break Tuesday though volume was below average on this move. That is not exactly what you want to see on a break to a high, but relative strength did breakout with the stock, showing VRTS is one of th stronger stocks in the market. Just want some more volume to add to positions.
Volume: 5.817M Avg Volume: 6.402M
BUY POINT: New: $37.42 but need to see volume (orig. $36.25) Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.88
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$68.86; -0.29; optionable): Online education. Researching a new date as did not announce with earnings earlier this month.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. UOPX jumped off the 50 day MVA Monday with a strong, above average volume move. It took a breather today, testing the 18 day MVA (68.23) on the low and holding its prior gain as volume backed off. With COCO announcing earnings Wednesday morning, we are also on alert for UOPX to continues its move higher.
Volume: 229.274K Avg Volume: 243.727K
BUY POINT: New: $70.06 (orig. $68.35) Volume=315K Target=$82 Stop=$66.42
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/25/2003
ADTN (Adtran--$70.1; +1.85; optionable): Telecom equipment. Splits 3:2 on 12-16-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adtn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. ADTN is bouncing up off the 50 day MVA (64.51) as anticipated. Volume has been higher but is still below average; enough to get us to open some positions. It still has plenty of room overhead up to the recent highs at 75, enough to make us some money on an option play as it moves further.
Volume: 885.25K Avg Volume: 1.035M
BUY POINT: New: 70.22 (orig. $68.25)Volume=1.1M Target=$77.45 Stop=$64.08
POSITION: RQA LM - Dec. $65c (60 delta). Looking at options for the further move.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adtn.html
Play Date: 10/23/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$65.55; +0.05; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 11-6-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Still prepping for the next move, working laterally over the 18 day MVA (64.48) in a very tight range on below average volume. It is setting up for the move and we just have to be patient and let it make a higher volume breakout from this range.
Volume: 1.913M Avg Volume: 3.708M
BUY POINT: $66.06 Volume=4M Target=$75 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: BSX AM - Jan. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 10/14/2003
USNA (Usana Health Science--$63.71; -0.18; no options): Drug products. Splits 2:1 on 10-31-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usna.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. USNA has a couple more days to give us a pre-split move, and it is showing some good volume spikes, another one Tuesday as it tested 60 on the low and rebounded. Looks ready to give us a pre-split run, an old squeeze play.
Volume: 313.808K Avg Volume: 212.454K
BUY POINT: $64.12 Volume=314K Target=$73.75 Stop=$59.63
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usna.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/04/2003
HOTT (Hot Topic--$28.05; +1.14; optionable): Youth apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. HOTT started up off the 18 day MVA (26.64) Tuesday on a good shot of above average volume. Retail performed very well and HOTT is still a buy on this move.
Volume: 1.113M Avg Volume: 910.045K
BUY POINT: New: $28.22 (orig. $25.39) Volume=748K Target=$30.38 Stop=$26.71
POSITION: UHO BE - Feb. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hott.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$22.96; +0.84; optionable): Apparel & stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. PSUN was in a nice double bottom with handle pattern, but it slipped a bit low in the handle, dropping down to the 50 day MVA (21.85), undercutting it, and then blasting higher Tuesday on rising, average trade. A solid 50 day MVA bounce, and still a buy on this bounce and then on a breakout over the recent highs at 24.
Volume: 1.884M Avg Volume: 1.823M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $23.12; breakout: $24.12 Volume=2.3M Target=$28.94 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: PVQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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