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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Wednesday: BSX; CECO; COCO; CPWM; DCGN; HAR; HOTT; JAH; NSM; TIWI; VAR
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/29/2003
BBA (Bombay Company--$13.3; +0.67; no options): Retail home furnishings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bba.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Many retailers have very solid accumulation patterns, and BBA is no different. It broke out of an 11 week base in early October, rallied to 14 on strong volume. It has tested its breakout, tapping at the 18 day MVA (12.31) and then bursting higher Wednesday on another strong shot of above average volume. Accumulation is a solid 5 to 2 (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. Looks like a successful breakout test.
Volume: 698.5K Avg Volume: 499.363K
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=749K Target=$16.12 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bba.html
Play Date: 10/29/2003
KOSP (KOS Pharmaceuticals--$39.8; +1.19; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kosp.html
STATUS: Cup. Broke out from a 6 month cup with handle base in May and rallied to 42. After that run it needed a breather, and it fell back into the current 6 week base to do just that. Volume has been lower and mostly below average, a good indication there is no real dumping of the stock. Indeed, accumulation is a strong 3 to 1 and money flow is strong and moving up ahead of price. Volume jumped the past two sessions as KOSP jumped off the bottom of the base. This stock is a proven winner, and we are looking at moving in on a break over 40 on continued strong volume.
Volume: 830.525K Avg Volume: 484.454K
BUY POINT: $40.25 Volume=727K Target=$48.32 Stop=$37.28
POSITION: KQW BH - Feb. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kosp.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/08/2003
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$64.94; +1.56; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Started moving up off the 10 day MVA (63.35) Wednesday but volume, though higher, was still well below average. Looks ready to make the next move after its nice 2 week lateral consolidation of the early October breakout from its 12 week base. Now all it needs to show is volume.
Volume: 182.525K Avg Volume: 316.454K
BUY POINT: New: $65.12 (orig. $61.51) Volume=501K Target=$73 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: QTT AL - Jan. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/taro.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
COCO: No split on 10-29. Now looking at 11-20 at a board meeting. What a move!
PRE-SPLIT
BSX shot higher!
POST-SPLIT
HOTT making another good move!
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^SOXX 10/25 Test 50 496.23 +5.12 463.17 492 1.5M 1.1M 479.98
Current. Took half of the gain as it moved to the target. Still making us money as it continued higher.
ACV 08/04 Test 18 62.47 +0.2 58.45 67.45 265K 400K 60.95
Current.
ACV 07/19 BO 62.47 +0.2 54.8 65.85 265K 400K 60.95
Current.
ADTN 10/25 Test 50 68.61 -1.34 68.25 77.45 1.3M 1.1M 64.08
Current.
APPB 10/13 BO 35.2 +0.24 34.62 41.55 490K 750K 32.78
Buy Not Issued.
AV 09/25 Flat 13.3 -0.05 11.38 13.65 2.8M 4.4M 12.55
Current.
AVP 08/14 Test 50 67.75 +0.75 66.68 76.32 794K 1.7M 66.74
Current.
BCR 10/04 Cup hdl 79.83 +0.6 73.05 83.55 366K 563K 76.95
BHE 10/27 Test 50 49.39 -0.61 48.99 55.88 385K 550K 47.44
Current.
BSX 10/23 Test 50 67.85 +2.3 66.8 75 7.7M 4M 64.68
Current. Shot higher on volume on news that JNJ stints caused
clotting adn there may be a recall, etc.
BSX 09/29 Test 50 67.85 +2.3 65.45 69.45 7.7M 4.5M 63.38
Current.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 7.1 +0.05 6.88 8.38 64K 145K 6.52
Buy Not Issued.
CECO 07/31 FlyPlat 55.11 +2.95 42.86 47.62 2.4M 1M 47.45
Current.
CECO 07/19 Test 18 55.11 +2.95 37.88 43.28 2.4M 1.2M 47.45
Current.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 55.11 +2.95 31.28 36.73 2.4M 1M 47.45
Current.
CEDC 10/25 Test 18 38.89 -0.16 34.25 40.88 200K 282K 32.12
Current.
CELL 10/02 Test 18 27.25 +0.01 23.25 28 621K 1M 24.68
Current.
CELL 09/20 FlyPlat 27.25 +0.01 22.57 27 621K 538K 24.68
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 27.25 +0.01 12.83 15.51 621K 225K 24.68
Current.
CFC 09/27 Cup hdl 105.85 +0.3 78.38 89.95 2M 3.4M 96.45
Current.
CHS 10/04 Dbl btm 37.72 +0.89 34.62 41.53 1.1M 1.8M 34.92
Current.
CHT 10/16 Cup hdl 15.85 +0.26 15.62 18.75 738K 1.1M 14.88
Buy Not Issued. Really thought about it, but just not much volume on
the move.
COCO 09/20 DB hdl 61.6 +4.86 59.42 69 3.3M 1.1M 56.05
Current.
COH 09/20 PreSplt 36.17 +0.86 30.06 34.55 1.7M 1.2M 32.12
Current.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 11.21 +0.46 6.5 8.12 230K 200K 9.38
Current.
CPWM 10/25 DB hdl 45.84 +1.81 43.65 51.95 451K 337K 40.88
Current.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 7.21 +0.26 4.32 5.38 711K 315K 5.96
Current.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 22.23 +0.08 22.25 26 929K 2.9M 20.69
DJO 09/11 Cup 17.45 +0.56 14 16.45 92K 100K 15.46
Current.
DLTR 10/23 Cup 38.01 -0.23 37.92 45.55 817K 2.3M 35.94
Buy Not Issued.
EASI 10/14 A Wedge 66.87 +0.59 66.07 75 140K 287K 63.78
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 57.2 -0.33 53.78 60 9M 9M 57.25
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 57.2 -0.33 40.04 46 9M 8M 57.25
Current.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 4.85 +0.05 4.3 5.22 180K 300K 4.42
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 12.55 +0.18 11.24 13.38 287K 350K 11.66
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 12.55 +0.18 9.33 11.12 287K 400K 11.66
Current.
ENMD 09/17 Cup 5.01 +0.02 5.39 6.72 424K 890K 4.86
Current.
ERES 09/27 Test 50 49.49 +0.56 36.88 43.94 808K 981K 45.22
Current.
ET 09/18 Cup hdl 10.41 -0.04 10.8 12.94 4.4M 7M 10.22
Current.
GGP 10/14 FlyPlat 76.7 +1.42 75.12 86.25 217K 275K 73.58
Current.
HAR 09/20 FlyPlat 131.03 +3.72 101.68 117 322K 374K 113
HOTT 10/04 Dbl btm 29.25 +1.2 25.39 30.38 1.5M 748K 26.32
Current.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 32.15 +0.22 29.05 34.55 2.1M 4.7M 29.91
Current.
IT 10/28 A Wedge 12.88 +0.08 12.99 15.62 437K 400K 12.08
Buy Not Hit.
JADE 10/16 Cup hdl 4.34 -0.04 5.04 6.32 69K 235K 4.45
Buy Not Hit.
JAH 09/06 Cup hdl 40.95 +1.47 38.39 45.75 271K 270K 36.88
Current.
LIZ 10/25 Cup hdl 38.52 -0.3 38.52 45.88 773K 959K 37.06
Current.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 83.63 +1.56 58.5 67.78 853K 610K 76.38
Current.
LOUD 10/23 Flat 2.63 -0.03 2.75 3.78 1.5M 3.6M 2.38
Current.
MOBE 09/15 Cup hdl 8.98 +0.52 8.7 10.88 1.1M 810K 8.83
Current.
MSCC 10/28 Rv H&S 20.6 +0.2 20.58 24.72 242K 480K 19.08
Buy Not Issued.
MYL 09/30 Test 50 24.7 -1.04 25.93 29.72 4.8M 2.1M 27.18
Current.
NCI 10/25 Cup hdl 17.23 +0.67 15.41 18.55 527K 559K 14.21
Buy Not Issued.
NEXM 10/14 Cup hdl 4.99 +0.03 5.03 6.28 830K 292K 4.68
Current.
NSM 09/17 BO 40.99 +1.39 35.35 42 5.1M 5M 36.28
Current.
NTE 10/18 Test 18 41.01 +0.71 34.4 41.25 1.1M 1.2M 35.45
Current. Surged again on lower but still above average volume.
We decided to let it run despite hitting the target.
NVLS 10/28 Test 50 40.38 -0.25 39.84 47.75 6.3M 9.5M 37.72
Current.
NXG 10/15 Cup 1.95 +0.01 1.89 2.48 778K 684K 1.78
Current.
OLGC 10/18 Test BO 7.85 +0.15 7.15 8.58 342K 342K 6.65
Current.
ORBK 10/14 DB hdl 24.1 +0.46 24.31 29 229K 200K 22.89
Current.
ORLY 08/19 Flat 43.42 +0.92 39.48 47.05 610K 350K 38.68
Current.
PDCO 10/25 Test 18 63.9 -0.12 62.72 75 438K 755K 60.88
Buy Not Issued.
PKI 10/09 DB hdl 18 -0.25 17.18 20.65 727K 1.1M 16.21
Buy Not Issued.
PLAB 10/22 Put 21.68 +0.18 20.32 17.75 521K 1.1M 22
Buy Not Issued.
PSUN 10/11 DB hdl 23.33 +0.37 24.12 28.94 1.1M 2.3M 22.54
Buy Not Issued.
RI 09/30 Cup hdl 27.26 +0.47 27.72 33 336K 750K 25.78
SBUX 07/30 Cup 31.1 +0.1 30.35 36.75 4.4M 6M 29.25
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 31.1 +0.1 26.3 30.94 4.4M 6M 29.25
Current.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 41.5 -2.07 41.55 50 17M 15M 39.42
Current.
SINA 09/09 Cup 41.5 -2.07 36.15 41 17M 12M 39.42
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 41.5 -2.07 32.2 38.25 17M 10M 39.42
Current.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 36.17 -1 37.69 45 7.2M 9M 34.85
Current.
SYK 09/20 Flat 81.29 -0.17 78.97 90.25 442K 1.1M 78.55
Current.
SYMC 10/18 Flat 67.25 -0.16 67.88 77.94 2.2M 5M 64.77
Current.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 64.94 +1.56 61.51 73 181K 501K 61.32
Current.
TIWI 10/16 Cup hdl 6.7 +0.4 5.57 7 1.5M 350K 5.19
Current.
TRKN 10/23 DB hdl 7.25 -0.15 7.02 8.84 334K 205K 6.53
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 43.25 +0.65 28.06 31.44 358K 494K 37.96
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 43.25 +0.65 26.62 30 358K 500K 36.12
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 43.25 +0.65 23.42 27.62 358K 603K 37.96
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.25 +0.65 21.88 26 358K 603K 37.96
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43.25 +0.65 19.3 22.19 358K 577K 37.96
Current.
TSYS 10/14 Test 18 4.95 -0.14 5.05 6.15 170K 120K 4.98
Exited.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 4.95 -0.14 3.54 4.45 170K 120K 4.98
Exited.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 29.18 -0.14 27.65 33.18 12M 18M 25.68
Current.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 70.05 +1.19 68.95 82 188K 315K 67.32
Current.
URBN 10/18 Rv H&S 33.04 -0.1 33.61 40 378K 953K 31.36
Current.
USNA 10/14 Test BO 62.5 -1.21 64.12 73.75 194K 314K 59.63
Buy Not Issued.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 65.2 +3.68 62.35 72 2.2M 1.1M 59.94
Buy Not Hit.
VRTS 10/04 Test 50 36.89 -0.38 35.77 42.88 5.1M 1M 34.62
Current.
YUM 10/01 Flat 33.9 +0.44 31.99 37.55 611K 1.6M 31.22
Buy Not Issued.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 62.96 +0.15 51.12 59.55 1.1M 3M 58.94
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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