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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Thursday: CPTV; ORLY; NXG; APPB
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits
Play Date: 10/21/2003
BLUD (Immucor--$29.23; +0.63; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Splits 3:2 on 11-17-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After an August breakout BLUD ran to 31 and then slipped into the current 5 week pullback that is testing the 50 day MVA (27.68) on very low, below average volume. Wednesday it dipped down to the 50 day MVA and rebounded. Looks ready to make the move higher and just want to see some more volume.
Volume: 107.295K Avg Volume: 203.59K
BUY POINT: $30.22 Volume=320K Target=$34.78 Stop=$29.08
POSITION: QMQ LF - Dec. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
New Post Split:
Play Date: 10/30/2003
FRED (Freds Inc.--$37.8; +1.36; optionable): Discount retail variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fred.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Split in early July and is already back at the split range. It could turn into another pre-announcement play but it does not like rapid fire splits. FRED broke out of an 8 week triangle Thursday as it reported strong results and blasted higher on huge volume. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 and relative strength broke out on the move. Nice features in the base with it making higher lows over the 50 day MVA (33.97) until the breakout over 37. Excellent action and looking to move in here on a further move.
Volume: 1.036M Avg Volume: 350.909K
BUY POINT: $37.94 Volume=526K Target=$45.55 Stop=$35.32
POSITION: FMU BG - Feb. $35c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fred.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 10/30/2003
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$19.38; +0.83; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AVO broke out in November and ran steady up to the July high at 19. After that stellar run it had to take a breather, and it fell into the current 4 month base. Accumulation in the base is strong at 5 to 2 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), strong money flow, and a relative strength breakout on the Thursday move. AVO had pulled back to the 50 day MVA (18.03) as it formed the handle to the base over the past two weeks. Volume then jumped up Tuesday and Thursday as it jumped off the 50 day. That is good action as it shows the big money stepping in to buy the stock at that key support level. Thursday AVO was making the breakout move on another strong volume shot. Looking to pick it up here on a further volume move.
Volume: 547.4K Avg Volume: 239.181K
BUY POINT: $19.72 Volume=359K Target=$23.68 Stop=$18.34
POSITION: AVO DD - Apr. $20c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avo.html
Play Date: 10/30/2003
CLEC (US Lec Corp.--$5.33; +0.34; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CLEC appears to have put the finishing touches on the handle to a nice 6 month base. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 7 to 1 and money flow is surging above the price. Thursday CLEC jumped off the 50 day MVA (4.98) on very strong trade. The 50 day MVA is a great place to hold as it shows big money coming in and supporting the stock at that critical support level. Looks solid and ready for positions on a break over 5.50 on further strong trade.
Volume: 231.125K Avg Volume: 64.136K
BUY POINT: $5.54 Volume=96K Target=$6.94 Stop=$5.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clec.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/27/2003
CATS (Catalyst Semiconductor--$7.3; +0.2; no options): Chips for microcontrollers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cats.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Coming off the 10 day MVA (6.97) after a nice test, rising Thursday on stronger, though still below average volume. CATS made a big volume move out of an 11 week cup with handle base showing positive 2 to 1 accumulation (2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). Excellent money flow. Looking for more volume.
Volume: 88.325K Avg Volume: 143.409K
BUY POINT: New: $7.38 (orig. $6.88) Volume=145K Target=$8.38 Stop=$6.52
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cats.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
IT (Gartner Group--$13; +0.12; optionable): Business/Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/it.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A strong forecast gapped the stock higher Thursday, but it turned and gave it all back with the market by the close. Still a breakout move, and with its foundation IT can hold here and continue the move. A nice 6 week pattern showing strong 3 to 1 accumulation. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 965.8K Avg Volume: 405.039K
BUY POINT: New: $12.12 (orig. $12.99) Volume=400K Target=$15.62 Stop=$12.08
POSITION: IT CV - Mar. $12.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/it.html
Play Date: 10/15/2003
NXG (Northgate Exploration--$2.05; +0.1; no options): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxg.html
STATUS: Breakout. New issue in July, NXG broke out mid-month and then moved laterally for 9 sessions. Thursday it blasted higher out of this flying plateau on very strong volume. A good place to move in on a new issue that is breaking to a new high in a good sector.
Volume: 1.903M Avg Volume: 595.772K
BUY POINT: New: 2.12 (orig. $1.89) Volume=684K Target=$2.48 Stop=$1.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nxg.html
Play Date: 10/29/2003
KOSP (KOS Pharmaceuticals--$39.59; -0.21; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kosp.html
STATUS: Cup. KOSP was trying to make the move Thursday but not a lot of volume and it quickly faded. All in all it held the recent gains, leaving itself in a good position to continue the break off the bottom fo the base. KOSP broke out from a 6 month cup with handle base in May and rallied to 42. After that run it needed a breather, and it fell back into the current 6 week base to do just that. Volume has been lower and mostly below average, a good indication there is no real dumping of the stock. Indeed, accumulation is a strong 3 to 1 and money flow is strong and moving up ahead of price. This stock is a proven winner, and we are looking at moving in on a break over 40 on continued strong volume.
Volume: 478.691K Avg Volume: 484.454K
BUY POINT: $40.25 Volume=727K Target=$48.32 Stop=$37.28
POSITION: KQW BH - Feb. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kosp.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Many stocks making moves without announcing splits as companies are still a bit gun-shy. Still getting strong moves from these leaders, and that is why we love split-caliber stocks. They also tend to announce after earnings as JAH did this evening. At this juncture many have rallied higher out of buy position, but there are still some that look ready to move. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong.
ACV: No split on 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. Still running higher.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03 after the market closes but a tremendous earnings report and surge higher.
AVP: No split on 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: No split on 10-15-03 after the close but moving very well..
CEDC: Forecast 11-11-03.
CFC: Splits 4:3 on 12-18-03.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting. Super earnings shot it higher but no split thus far. Looking at November date now.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03. Moving well.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
DLTR: Forecast 11-25-03 after the close.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03. Came in with the split after hours Thursday!!
LIZ: Forecast 10-30-03 before the open. Reversed the move on a disappointing earnings forecast.
LM: No split on 10-22 with earnings. Still in a strong uptrend.
NTE: Forecast 10-27-03 before the open. Gave 1 share for every 10 you have, basically an 11:10 split.
ORLY: No split announced10-28-03 after the close. Racing ahead on the strong earnings.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03. A leader setting up for the next move.
VRTS: No split announced on 10-22-03. Excellent action and still could see a split over the next week.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHS (Chicos Fas--$37.59; -0.13; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-2-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-27-02 at a stock price of $37.74. Prior to this split CHS has announced other splits in December: 12-01 and 12-99, so December is a favored month. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Gapped higher Thursday after a solid Wednesday move, but could not hold the gain. Still perched on top of the October high (37.57), a good point to hold and continue the move.
Volume: 1.148M Avg Volume: 1.142M
BUY POINT: New: $37.75 (orig. $34.62) Volume=1.8M Target=$41.53 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: CHS BG - Feb. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$63.68; -0.22; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PDCO jumped off the 18 day MVA (61.90) Tuesday but has come back to test the move the past two sessions, holding over the 10 day MVA (62.71) and some support at 62.50. Want to see a high volume move from here.
Volume: 295.303K Avg Volume: 547.045K
BUY POINT: New: $64.12 (orig. $62.72) Volume=755K Target=$75 Stop=$60.88
POSITION: DOU AL - Jan. $60c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
SYK (Stryker--$81.16; -0.13; optionable): Medical instruments. No split announced on 10-15-03 in conjunction with earnings. Researching the next date but SYK remains solid.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was 4-22-03 no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing laterally over the 10 day MVA (80.56) in a very tight and narrow range after reporting great hearings that shot it higher. Excellent action, and now that the 10 day has risen to meet the stock price we anticipate another break higher.
Volume: 482.5K Avg Volume: 703.772K
BUY POINT: $82.12 (orig. $78.97) Volume=1.1M Target=$90.25 Stop=$78.55
POSITION: SYK AO - Jan. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$69.41; -0.64; optionable): Online education. Researching a new date as did not announce with earnings earlier this month.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. UOPX jumped off the 50 day MVA Monday with a strong, above average volume move. It has moved laterally the rest of the week, holding over the 10 day (68.57) in a tight range. A good point for it to make the next move.
Volume: 193.646K Avg Volume: 244.318K
BUY POINT: New: $70.06 (orig. $68.35) Volume=315K Target=$82 Stop=$66.42
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/27/2003
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$49.08; -0.31; optionable): Splits 3:2 on 11-14-2003
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Pre-split. BHE jumped off the 50 day MVA (46.16) to start the week but has stalled at 50. Still holding over the 10 day MVA (48.73) on lower, below average volume. Solid action, and looking for it to break over 50 on above average volume.
Volume: 228.1K Avg Volume: 373.136K
BUY POINT: New: $50.25 (orig. $48.99) Volume=550K Target=$55.88 Stop=$47.44
POSITION: BHE AJ - Dec. 50c (35 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
Play Date: 10/14/2003
USNA (Usana Health Science--$63.01; +0.51; no options): Drug products. Splits 2:1 on 10-31-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usna.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Did not make a run into the split, but kept a nice laterally move below 65 and just over the 10 day MVA (62.02). Very nice lateral consolidation. We have seen stocks make strong breaks higher right at the split. Holding up well and a very nice lateral move.
Volume: 245.267K Avg Volume: 215K
BUY POINT: $64.12 Volume=314K Target=$73.75 Stop=$59.63
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usna.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/04/2003
HOTT (Hot Topic--$28.61; -0.64; optionable): Youth apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. Nice run off 26 topped out near 30 on Thursday and started to fade back. Looking for it to hold in the range at 27, right at the 18 day MVA and then break back up from there.
Volume: 1.196M Avg Volume: 918.363K
BUY POINT: New: Test 27, then 28.12 on the way back up. (orig. $25.39) Volume=748K Target=$30.38 Stop=$26.71
POSITION: UHO BE - Feb. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hott.html
Play Date: 10/11/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$23.3; -0.03; optionable): Apparel & stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. PSUN has formed into an ascending triangle, using the 50 day MVA (21.96) as support on the bottom of the pattern, bouncing up off of that level as it bumps into 23 on the high. Thursday it tried to make the move through that level, but faded back. Held up well, however, holding the 18 day MVA (22.73) on the low and rebounding on rising, average trade. May come back a bit more to again test the 18 day, but in a good position to make a breakout move.
Volume: 1.768M Avg Volume: 1.831M
BUY POINT: Breakout: $24.12 Volume=2.3M Target=$28.94 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: PVQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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