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Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
11-03-03
ISM Index, October (10:00): 55.8 expected, 53.7 September.
Construction spending, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.2% August.
11-05-03
ISM Services, October (10:00): 62.0 expected, 63.3 September.
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.6% expected -0.8% August.
11-06-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 380K expected, 386K prior.
11-07-03
Non-farm payrolls, October (8:30): 50K expected, 57K September.
Unemployment rate, October (8:30): 6.1% expected, 6.1% September.
Hourly earnings, October: 0.2% expected, -0.1% September.
Average workweek: 33.8 expected, 33.7 September
Wholesale inventories, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% August.
Consumer credit, September (3:00): $5.5B expected, $8.2B August.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AVO; NOOF
Thursday night play results:
AVO: Good volume surge though closed well off of its intraday high.
WHT: Gapped higher on average trage.
NXG: Gapped up but sold back most of the gain. Still in good shape to move further.
New Plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/01/2003
AMKR (Amkor Technology--$18.85; -0.46; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amkr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AMKR broke out of a 15 week rolling range Tuesday, blasting up from a higher low in the range. AMKR had been bouncing between 14 and 18, but last week made a higher low near the 50 day MVA (16.70). From there is launched a high volume breakout. The stock was under heavy accumulation in the range with an 8 to 2 showing (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Solid accumulation that set up the breakout. When it made the move relative strenght broke out as well. It started testing back to end the week, giving up a bit of ground on lower, below average volume. We are looking for AMKFR to come back to test the breakout more to start the week, heading back toward the September high (18.50) or the 10 day MVA (17.90). Either way we will look for the bounce back up from there on rising, above average volume.
Volume: 1.229M Avg Volume: 1.394M
BUY POINT: Test 18.50 down to 17.90, then back up through $18.68 Volume=2.1M Target=$22.44 Stop=$17.37
POSITION: QEL CW - Mar. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amkr.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
MTMD (Microteck Medical--$3.92; -0.03; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MTMD shot up Tuesday on a huge volume move. That completed the 9 week cup. The rest of the week it moved laterally and slightly lower on much lower volume, action that is forming the handle to the base. This is where the buyers that moved in at the old high get frustrated as the stock approaches that old high and then backs off. Fearing a collapse back down they sell. Once they are gone the decks are cleared for the stock to move higher. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 1. It looks as if it may take MTMD another few sessions to complete forming the handle and then it will be ready for the breakout.
Volume: 220.432K Avg Volume: 205.545K
BUY POINT: $4.12 Volume=300K Target=$5.15 Stop=$3.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mtmd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/01/2003
AAI (Airtran Holdings--$16.21; -1; optionable): Regional airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aai.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. A sector that is making money but has come under heavy selling pressure. AAI formed the left shoulder in September, rallied over 20 in early October to form the head, and is now rolling over and falling through the 50 day MVA (16.45) on high volume to form the right shoulder. Money flow is tanking and AAI is under heavy distribution. Looking for a further drop on volume to enter the play for a run to 14 as the initial target, but we are looking at 13 as well.
Volume: 2.561M Avg Volume: 1.827M
BUY POINT: $16.04 Volume=250K Target=$14 Stop=$16.62
POSITION: AAI XW - Jan. $17.50p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aai.html
Continuing that look solid: PDYN
Play Date: 11/01/2003
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$18; +0.14; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A continuing play that has formed a nice 10 week triangle, using the 50 day MVA (16.55) on the lows as the support level as it builds pressure below the constant top at 18. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 4 to 0. JNPR was testing the breakout point to end the week, holding a slight gain Friday on volume that moved up above average. It may come back to make a higher low near the 18 day MVA (17.24) early in the week before making the breakout move.
Volume: 12.078M Avg Volume: 10.13M
BUY POINT: $18.38 Volume=15M Target=$22 Stop=$17.22
POSITION: JUX AW - Jan. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jnpr.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
NOOF (New Frontier Media--$4.91; +0.14; no options): Movie productions, theaters
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/noof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NOOF has formed a handle to its 7 week base, moving laterally last week, holding over the 10 day MVA (4.56) on the lows on primarily below average volume. Friday that volume jumped up well above average as NOOF held the 10 day and bounced. Looks ready to make the next move. Solid money flow and relative strength. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 352.412K Avg Volume: 212.5K
BUY POINT: $5.14 Volume=319K Target=$6.21 Stop=$4.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/noof.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
GTRC 10/28 A Wedge 32.57 -3.33 36.42 43.72 4.8M 550K 34.15
Current. Huge gap down at the open and continued to move down to tap 31.05 intraday showing a tight doji on strong volume surge. News that one of is companies did not make earnings cause the stock to plummet. Will see if recovers next week.
* * *
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.
ATVI: Broke out Thursday and gapped up big on Friday only to give most of the move back. Strong breakout.
PLCM: A steady uptrend that has now reached some resistance at 20 from April and May 2002.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGRB 08/28 Rv H&S 3.39 +0.05 3.02 3.95 5.1M 6.7M 3.22
AMSWA 10/23 Test BO 6.38 -0.06 6.12 7.45 217K 150K 6.04
Current. Pull back on much lower, above average volume. Managed to retain most of Wednesday's great move. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
AMZN 05/03 BO 54.43 -1.4 30.3 35.45 7.7M 12M 54.94
Current. Low volume on the fade thru the 18 day so let it ride
to next week.
ARTX 10/28 Test BO 1.82 +0.02 1.78 2.28 2.3M 1.5M 1.64
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Tapped 1.94 at the day's high, but gave most of it back.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 51.75 -0.96 0 0 704K 0 0
AVO 10/30 Cup hdl 20.17 +0.79 19.72 23.68 340K 359K 18.34
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up before we could enter the play for a nice move up on above average volume. Tapped 2.67 at the day's high, but gave most of it back. Will wait for a test to enter the play if conditions are right.
BCON 10/16 A Wedge 0.76 +0.03 0.96 1.25 589K 6.6M 0.83
Buy Not Issued. Continue lateral move along the 50 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
BRKS 10/29 Cup 24.93 -2.16 27 32.38 1.8M 1.4M 24.74
Current. Great earnings Thursday but was caught in the SWKS
earnings miss Friday along with a downgrade. Held above
support at 10 day & will see if can bounce on the good
earnings it reported.
BXS 10/13 Cup hdl 23.51 +0.18 23.52 28.25 37K 104K 22.35
Buy Not Hit. Do not like the way the stock has shaped up so will drop but will keep our eye on it.
CCRD 10/29 Test BO 17.91 -0.29 18.18 21.62 152K 153K 16.91
Current. Tapped 19.11 at the day's high, but gave it all back on lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
CHS 10/04 Dbl btm 37.54 -0.05 34.62 41.53 738K 1.8M 35.78
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
CYPB 09/24 Test 18 13.22 +0.13 8.61 10.65 468K 294K 11.94
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
DIS 08/09 Test 50 22.64 -0.24 22.06 26.48 5.9M 9M 21.12
DKS 10/13 Cup 45.98 -0.86 44.68 55.38 235K 603K 45.22
Current. Gapped down at the open and continued the move down to close just above the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but below average volume. Tested below average volume the 10 day MVA and ralied. May test further.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 55.93 -1 34.72 46 5.9M 12M 55.45
Current. Thudded down to hold at support 56 on much lower, below average volume. May test to the 50 day MVA.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 55.93 -1 31.22 46 5.9M 12M 55.45
Current.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 5.18 +0.11 5.07 6.35 162K 264K 4.96
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close above the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
EGOV 09/20 Cup hdl 5.18 +0.11 4.8 5.68 162K 264K 4.96
Current.
ESV 10/18 Put 26.35 +0.59 26.08 24 1.9M 2M 26.62
Rallied higher on stronger above average volume. The stock did not make the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
FL 10/11 A Wedge 17.9 -0.21 17.38 20.88 886K 1.4M 17.48
Current. Pull back on lower, but still slightly above average volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
GEMS 10/22 Test BO 3.05 +0.09 2.87 3.72 868K 487K 2.78
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
GIGM 10/01 Cup hdl 2.95 -0.05 3.12 4.05 1M 2.7M 2.78
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to hold at the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the breakout. Ready to move back up.
GNSC 10/09 Test BO 2.94 -0.15 2.65 3.47 219K 175K 2.68
Current. Big gap up at the open, but gave it all back and then some on lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
INTC 10/23 Test 18 32.95 +0.06 32.7 39 40M 65M 32.02
Current. Narrow trading range showing a doji on below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
IWM 10/27 Test 50 105.5 -0.7 103.55 107.5 2.4M 4.4M 103.88
Current. Pull back on much lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
JNPR 10/04 Test 50 18 +0.14 17.1 20.48 12M 17M 17.22
Current. Tapped 18.55 at the day's high, but gave it all back on higher above average volume. May further test the 10 day MVA.
LCCI 10/08 Cup hdl 6.14 +0.09 6.08 7.62 24K 111K 5.85
Current. More volatile session with 6.26 at the high and 5.85 at the low (below the 18 day MVA) closing on the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but below average volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 25.74 -0.05 0 0 550K 1.3M 0
Buy Not Issued. Pull back to close on the simple 50 day MVA on below average volume. Moving laterally on the simple 50 day MVA.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 4.91 +0.14 4.78 6.21 352K 280K 4.54
Current. Moved up off the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Tapped 5.09 at the high, but gave it back. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
NVLS 10/28 Test 50 41.25 +0.62 39.84 47.75 6.3M 9.5M 39.33
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Made a new high since May 02'.
NXG 10/15 Cup 2.09 +0.04 1.89 2.48 1.4M 684K 1.92
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower, but very strong volume. Stock continues to climb the 10 day MVA.
NXTL 10/02 Cup hdl 24.11 0 20.76 24.95 12M 27M 23.02
Current. Pull back showing a doji on below average volume. Still in uptrend.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 24.11 0 20.64 24.75 12M 24M 23.02
Current.
ONNN 10/28 Test 50 4.3 -0.14 4.65 5.88 1.3M 1.7M 4.42
Current. Tested below the 50 day MVA and rallied to close on the 50 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
OPSW 10/28 A Wedge 8.22 -0.38 8.88 10.72 1.1M 1M 8.17
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down to hold slightly above the 18 day MVA on higher, above average volume. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied. Needs to hold here or will look to drop.
PARS 10/11 Cup hdl 3.9 -0.1 2.94 3.88 1.3M 1.2M 3.75
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Still in good shape.
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 3.3 -0.02 2.55 3.24 55K 450K 3.15
Current. Continue to move laterally along the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
PUMA 10/27 A Wedge 6.99 +0.25 6.78 8.48 1.1M 1.4M 6.18
Buy Not Issued. . Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Have not entered the play because of the volatility.
QLGC 10/14 Rv H&S 56.05 -0.14 52.88 63.38 2.9M 7M 54.38
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Managed to retain Tuesday's great move. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
QQQ 10/25 Test 50 35.18 -0.21 34.38 36 55M 100M 34.68
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on much lower, below average volume. Testing the breakout.
RIC 10/21 Cup hdl 4.97 -0.03 5.25 6.78 52K 140K 4.8
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close just above the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 31.6 +0.16 30.35 36.75 2.3M 6M 30.54
Current. Tapped 31.90 at the day's high, but gave it back showing a doji on below average volume. Continue to climb the 10 day MVA.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 31.6 +0.16 26.3 30.94 2.3M 6M 30.54
Current.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 38.65 -1.69 41.55 50 11M 15M 39.42
Current. Thudded down to hold just above the simple 50 day MVA on slightly lower, below average volume. Needs to hold here.
SINA 09/09 Cup 38.65 -1.69 36.15 41 11M 12M 37.55
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 38.65 -1.69 32.2 38.25 11M 10M 37.55
Current.
SOFO 10/02 Test BO 2.33 -0.1 2.05 2.74 373K 395K 2.14
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back and move on below average volume. Still in an uptrend.
TELM 09/30 Test BO 1.62 -0.05 1.51 2.04 1M 7M 1.48
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Should make a move up from here.
TGT 08/09 Flat 39.74 +0.46 41.45 50 2.8M 5.7M 38.74
TLGD 10/22 Put 15.67 +0.05 14.98 13 58K 200K 15.82
Buy Not Issued. Moved up off the 200 day MVA and went up to test the 18 day MVA, but rolled over on below average volume. Needs to roll over from here or will look to drop.
TRA 10/18 A Wedge 2.68 -0.06 2.39 2.98 263K 205K 2.45
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 42.04 +0.58 28.06 31.44 766K 494K 39.74
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. Beginning to move up the 10 day MVA.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 42.04 +0.58 23.42 27.62 766K 603K 39.74
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.04 +0.58 21.88 26 766K 603K 39.74
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 42.04 +0.58 19.3 22.19 766K 577K 39.74
Current.
VOD 10/28 Cup hdl 21.15 -0.27 21.45 25.75 2.1M 2.8M 20.81
Current. Gapped down to open on the 10 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Still in good shape.
WFII 10/31 Cup hdl 17.15 +2 17.24 20.62 2.8M 1M 15.96
Current. Was on our watchlist and burst out of a 10 week base
with 4 to 3 accumulation. Earnings were solid. Relative
strength broke out as well. Solid move & we edged into
positions on the close.
WHT 10/30 Cup hdl 2.33 +0.09 2.34 3.05 3.9M 4.9M 2.15
Buy Not Issued. Could have moved in based on the Thursday volume but decided to see if get a test of 2.20 early this week.
WMGI 09/10 Flat 29.35 -0.65 26.26 31.48 549K 400K 28.07
Current. Pull back on above average volume. Tested Wednesday's gap intraday. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
YHOO 10/20 Test BO 43.71 -0.01 43.03 51.75 9.7M 15M 41.44
Buy Not Issued.
YHOO 09/22 Test BO 43.71 -0.01 37.95 45.25 9.7M 15M 41.44
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
YHOO 09/04 Rv H&S 43.71 -0.01 34.9 42 9.7M 20M 41.44
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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