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stock watch, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
11-03-03
ISM Index, October (10:00): 55.8 expected, 53.7 September.
Construction spending, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.2% August.
11-05-03
ISM Services, October (10:00): 62.0 expected, 63.3 September.
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.6% expected -0.8% August.
11-06-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 380K expected, 386K prior.
11-07-03
Non-farm payrolls, October (8:30): 50K expected, 57K September.
Unemployment rate, October (8:30): 6.1% expected, 6.1% September.
Hourly earnings, October: 0.2% expected, -0.1% September.
Average workweek: 33.8 expected, 33.7 September
Wholesale inventories, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% August.
Consumer credit, September (3:00): $5.5B expected, $8.2B August.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: CELL; EGHT; EVCI; NEXM
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/01/2003
TRPH (Tripath Technology--$5; +0.46; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trph.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After surging up from July and peaking just over 5 TRPH slipped into this 5 week base. Accumulation is a solid 3 to 0, money flow is racing higher, and relative strength is ready to breakout. Thursday and Friday volume surged as TRPH moved up toward the breakout. Again, this is one of our favorite patterns as it builds pressure and then provides explosive breakouts. It is also a sign of a strong stock in a strong market.
Volume: 2.34M Avg Volume: 1.092M
BUY POINT: $5.21 Volume=1.8M Target=$6.52 Stop=$4.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/trph.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
XLNX (Xilinx--$31.77; +0.41; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. XLNX is just starting to form what looks to be the handle to a 7 week base sporting strong 3 to 1 accumulation. XLNX has tapped down to 28 twice in October, bouncing smartly after those tests. The last move rallied it from 28 to near 32; a lateral move the next 2 to 3 sessions to form a handle would be an excellent resting point to give it a better base to break higher from. Volume was much stronger and back to average Friday. Would like to see it move laterally on some lower volume early in the week to set up the breakout move, but if it shows the volume break before then we will move in.
Volume: 7.861M Avg Volume: 7.598M
BUY POINT: $32.05 Volume=11M Target=$38.48 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: XLQ CZ - Mar. $32.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xlnx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/01/2003
ASCA (Ameristar Casinos--$21.12; -1.13; optionable): Ameristar Casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asca.html
STATUS: Put. After a decent lateral move over the 50 day MVA (24.13) where ASCA tried to form a handle to a long-term base (17 months), ASCA was hammered lower Wednesday with a big gap lower. It made a weak rebound attempt Thursday and then was selling again Friday. Money flow is diving and it is under heavy distribution. Looking for it to continue down from here toward our initial target. If it is selling hard when it hits that level we will be inclined to let sell on down toward the 200 day MVA at 17.55.
Volume: 235.547K Avg Volume: 123.272K
BUY POINT: $20.92 Volume=185K Target=$18.85 Stop=$22.08
POSITION: UWT XX - Dec. $22.50p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asca.html
Continuing plays that still look good: GBN; KOSP; PUMA
Play Date: 11/01/2003
NOOF (New Frontier Media--$4.91; +0.14; no options): Movie productions, theaters
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/noof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NOOF has formed a handle to its 7 week base, moving laterally last week, holding over the 10 day MVA (4.56) on the lows on primarily below average volume. Friday that volume jumped up well above average as NOOF held the 10 day and bounced. Looks ready to make the next move. Solid money flow and relative strength. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 352.412K Avg Volume: 212.5K
BUY POINT: $5.14 Volume=319K Target=$6.21 Stop=$4.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/noof.html
Play Date: 10/06/2003
RETK (Retek--$10.02; -0.16; optionable): Internet software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/retk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. RETK broke from a 4 month ascending triangle in early October, rallying to 11 on the high. A super breakout, and now RETK is taking its first breather, a two week lateral move over the 10 day MVA (9.90). When the 10 day rises to meet the stock price in this type of pattern that is usually the catalyst that sends the stock on the next move higher. Strong money flow still leading higher and a relataive strength breakout. Want to see another volume surge as it clears the recent tops at 10.50.
Volume: 503.221K Avg Volume: 548.409K
BUY POINT: New: $10.58 (orig. $8.49) Volume=776K Target=New positions: 12.72 (orig. positions $10.25) Stop=$9.72
POSITION: QRD AU - Jan. $7.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/retk.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^SOXX 10/25 Test 50 496.52 -1.84 463.17 492 9.4M 1.1M 479.98
Target Hit. Took the rest of the gain off the table as the SOX
showed a doji after a strong week. Will look for a
test of the 18 day MVA or 475 to hold & provide the
next entry point. Nice, quick, easy trade.
AKAM 10/21 Cup hdl 7.9 -0.1 6.42 8 7.8M 2.4M 5.88
Buy Not Issued. More volatile session with 8.15 at the high and 7.54 at the low. Pullback on much lower, but still above average volume. Managed to retain most of Thursday's gain. Still in an uptrend.
AMSWA 10/23 Test BO 6.38 -0.06 6.12 7.45 217K 150K 6.04
Current. Pull back on much lower, above average volume. Managed to retain most of Wednesday's great move. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
AV 09/25 Flat 12.94 -0.11 11.38 13.65 5M 4.4M 12.75
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied on higher, but still below average volume. May test back further.
AVO 10/30 Cup hdl 20.17 +0.79 19.72 23.68 340K 359K 18.34
Buy Not Issued. Another great move up on strong volume. Were waiting at the close to see if it would come back a little more. We watch for Monday. Stock had good enough volume to enter the play.
BBA 10/29 Test BO 13.18 -0.27 13.76 16.45 223K 749K 12.76
Current. Very volatile session with 13.74 at the high and 13.00 at the low. Gapped down at the open and continued to move down on below average volume. Managed to retain some of Wednesday's great move. Testing the breakout.
BRKS 10/29 Cup 24.93 -2.16 27 32.38 1.8M 1.4M 24.74
Current. Great earnings Thursday but was caught in the SWKS
earnings miss Friday along with a downgrade. Held above
support at 10 day & will see if can bounce on the good
earnings it reported.
BRLI 10/20 Cup hdl 16.59 +0.33 13.45 16.22 346K 212K 14.96
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on much lower, but still above average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 7.23 -0.07 7.58 9.12 41K 145K 7.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open and then went up to tap 7.54 at the high, but gave back the move on low volume.
CELL 10/02 Test 18 28.65 +2.43 23.25 28 2.5M 1M 25.92
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 28.65 +2.43 12.83 15.51 2.5M 225K 25.92
Current. Nice gap up at the open, but lost some of the gain on strong volume surge. Filled in the gap intraday. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
CHT 10/16 Cup hdl 15.48 -0.42 15.62 18.75 521K 1.1M 14.88
Buy Not Issued. This is why you do not chase low volume breakouts.
CKSW 10/25 Test BO 3 -0.1 3.08 4.05 112K 300K 2.81
Buy Not Issued. Pull back to hold the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
CORI 10/27 Test BO 6.56 +0.14 6.25 7.85 1.1M 550K 6.08
Current. Tapped 6.85 at the day's high, but gave back most of the move on slightly lower, but still above average volume.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 6.96 -0.05 4.32 5.38 399K 315K 6.48
Current. Tapped 7.15 at the high and 6.85 at the low showing a doji on below average volume. Still in uptrend.
DJO 09/11 Cup 17.95 +0.56 14 16.45 89K 100K 16.91
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice move on stronger above average volume.
DKS 10/13 Cup 45.98 -0.86 44.68 55.38 235K 603K 45.22
Current. Gapped down at the open and continued the move down to close just above the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but below average volume. Tested below average volume the 10 day MVA and ralied. May test further.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 4.95 +0.1 4.3 5.22 220K 300K 4.63
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, below average volume.
EGHT 10/30 Cup 2.22 +0.32 2.15 2.91 2.8M 823K 1.97
Current. An explosive move up on excellent volume surge. Tapped 2.42 at the day's high, but gave back some of the move.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 5.18 +0.11 5.07 6.35 162K 264K 4.96
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to close above the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
EGOV 09/20 Cup hdl 5.18 +0.11 4.8 5.68 162K 264K 4.96
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 12.9 +0.23 11.24 13.38 199K 350K 12.18
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 12.9 +0.23 9.33 11.12 199K 400K 12.18
Current.
ENMD 09/17 Cup 4.94 -0.03 5.39 6.72 294K 890K 4.86
Current. Tapped 4.99 but could not hold the gain showing a tight doji on below average volume. Tapped 4.80 at the day's low and rallied. Needs to hold here.
ESPR 10/23 BO 23.87 -0.92 23.05 27.92 866K 600K 22.71
Current. More volatile with 24.34 at the day's high and 22.27 at the day's low (below the 10 day MVA) on stronger above average volume. Gapped down at the open and recovered some of the loss. Still in good shape.
EVCI 10/20 Cup hdl 4.74 +0.78 3.4 4.38 443K 125K 3.98
Target Hit. Took a partial gain and left the rest on the table to continue to work for us. Explosive move on strong volume surge.
FRED 10/30 A Wedge 37.68 -0.12 37.94 45.55 448K 526K 35.32
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open and moved down on lower but still above average volume. Tested 37.10 at the low and rallied. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
GBN 10/22 Cup 1.91 +0.05 1.86 2.42 376K 300K 1.77
Current. More volatile with 1.93 at the high and 1.82 at the low on much lower, but still above average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
GEMS 10/22 Test BO 3.05 +0.09 2.87 3.72 868K 487K 2.78
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
GIGM 10/01 Cup hdl 2.95 -0.05 3.12 4.05 1M 2.7M 2.78
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied to hold at the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the breakout. Ready to move back up.
GNSC 10/09 Test BO 2.94 -0.15 2.65 3.47 219K 175K 2.68
Current. Big gap up at the open, but gave it all back and then some on lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
IFLO 09/22 Test BO 14.55 +0.21 11.29 13.55 275K 375K 13.36
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
IFLO 09/09 Flat 14.55 +0.21 9.62 11.52 275K 426K 13.36
Current.
ILXO 10/28 Dbl btm 20.86 +0.07 21.42 25.75 229K 692K 19.72
Buy Not Issued. Tappped 21.39 at the high, but could not hold the gain on below average volume. Still in an uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
JADE 10/16 Cup hdl 4.2 +0.04 5.04 6.32 65K 235K 4.45
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on low volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
KOSP 10/29 Cup 39.96 +0.37 40.58 48.68 259K 727K 37.48
Buy Not Issued. Continue to make a lateral move above the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume.
LENS 10/29 A Wedge 12.84 -0.51 13.17 15.78 357K 750K 12.18
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Manage to retain most of Wednesday's great move. Testing the breakout.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 83.25 +0.88 58.5 67.78 398K 610K 79.94
Current. Moved up on much lower, below average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
LOUD 10/23 Flat 2.68 +0.08 2.75 3.78 1.8M 3.6M 2.48
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on average volume. Still in the pattern.
NCI 10/25 Cup hdl 16.43 -0.15 16.05 19.22 176K 559K 15.55
Buy Not Issued. Testing the breakout. After holding 16, a rebound on volume is a buy.
NEXM 10/14 Cup hdl 5.4 +0.42 5.03 6.28 1.1M 292K 4.78
Current. Big move off the 10 day MVA on strong volume surge. Tapped 55.65 at the high, but gave it back
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 4.91 +0.14 4.78 6.21 352K 280K 4.54
Current. Moved up off the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Tapped 5.09 at the high, but gave it back. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
NVLS 10/28 Test 50 41.25 +0.62 39.84 47.75 6.3M 9.5M 39.33
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Made a new high since May 02'.
NXG 10/15 Cup 2.09 +0.04 1.89 2.48 1.4M 684K 1.92
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower, but very strong volume. Stock continues to climb the 10 day MVA.
NXTL 10/02 Cup hdl 24.11 0 20.76 24.95 12M 27M 23.02
Current. Pull back showing a doji on below average volume. Still in uptrend.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 24.11 0 20.64 24.75 12M 24M 23.02
Current.
OLGC 10/18 Test BO 7.1 -0.23 7.15 8.58 254K 342K 6.88
Current. More volatile with 7.55 at the high and 6.87 at the low (18 day MVA). Moved down to close below the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
ONNN 10/28 Test 50 4.3 -0.14 4.65 5.88 1.3M 1.7M 4.42
Current. Tested below the 50 day MVA and rallied to close on the 50 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
OPSW 10/28 A Wedge 8.22 -0.38 8.88 10.72 1.1M 1M 8.17
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down to hold slightly above the 18 day MVA on higher, above average volume. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied. Needs to hold here or will look to drop.
ORBK 10/14 DB hdl 23.75 -0.74 24.31 29 120K 200K 23.06
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Still in uptrend
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 3.3 -0.02 2.55 3.24 55K 450K 3.15
Current. Continue to move laterally along the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
PKI 10/09 DB hdl 18.01 -0.07 17.18 20.65 600K 1.1M 16.21
Buy Not Issued. Looking for a test of the early October high (17.60) and then a rebound on volume to enter.
PUMA 10/27 A Wedge 6.99 +0.25 6.78 8.48 1.1M 1.4M 6.18
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Have not entered the play because of the volatility, but Friday it was right there and we look for a further move Monday to enter.
QLGC 10/14 Rv H&S 56.05 -0.14 52.88 63.38 2.9M 7M 54.38
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Managed to retain Tuesday's great move. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
RETK 10/06 A Wedge 10.02 -0.16 8.49 10.25 503K 776K 9.72
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Testing the breakout.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 38.65 -1.69 41.55 50 11M 15M 39.42
Current. Thudded down to hold just above the simple 50 day MVA on slightly lower, below average volume. Needs to hold here.
SINA 09/09 Cup 38.65 -1.69 36.15 41 11M 12M 37.55
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 38.65 -1.69 32.2 38.25 11M 10M 37.55
Current.
SOFO 10/02 Test BO 2.33 -0.1 2.05 2.74 373K 395K 2.14
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back and move on below average volume. Still in an uptrend.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 34.31 -1.43 37.69 45 4.6M 9M 34.85
Current. Thudded down to hold just above support at 34 on lower, below average volume. Looking for a bounce from here.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 64.26 +0.54 61.51 73 191K 501K 62.52
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
TELM 09/30 Test BO 1.62 -0.05 1.51 2.04 1M 7M 1.48
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied to close on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Should make a move up from here.
TLGD 10/22 Put 15.67 +0.05 14.98 13 58K 200K 15.82
Buy Not Issued. Moved up off the 200 day MVA and went up to test the 18 day MVA, but rolled over on below average volume. Needs to roll over from here or will look to drop.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 42.04 +0.58 23.42 27.62 766K 603K 39.74
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. Beginning to move up the 10 day MVA.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.04 +0.58 21.88 26 766K 603K 39.74
Current.
TUTS 10/29 A Wedge 5.45 -0.06 6.28 7.72 64K 175K 5.84
Buy Not Hit. Fell to close below the 18 day MVA. The stock was not making the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 28.92 -0.6 27.65 33.18 14M 18M 27.94
Current. Pull back on above average volume. Still in uptrend.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 63.94 -1.55 64.5 74.25 2M 1.1M 61.98
Current. More volatile with 67.69 at the day's high and 62.89 at the day's low. Gapped up at the open and then lost the gain on stronger above average volume. Managed to retain Wednesday's great move. May test down further.
WFII 10/31 Cup hdl 17.15 +2 17.24 20.62 2.8M 1M 15.96
Current. Was on our watchlist and burst out of a 10 week base
with 4 to 3 accumulation. Earnings were solid. Relative
strength broke out as well. Solid move & we edged into
positions on the close.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 63.81 +1.08 51.12 59.55 1.9M 3M 61.32
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
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