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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
TOMORROW
Stocks closed with a strong flurry, particularly on the Nasdaq. That can lead to stronger opens tomorrow, but this market is one that is volatile as it tries to find bottom. Barring any terrible news (and can it get much worse than daily downgrades and warnings?), we expect to see the indexes make a choppy run at resistance (meaning, up and down action). They have swallowed a lot of negative news of late and have sold down on it. Now they are holding the line and look ready to overlook some of the bad news in favor of possibly better times down the road. MU is up after the close tomorrow, and its guidance will be key to the scenario we are laying out. MU previously stated that it saw its business bottoming and starting to improve.
So, contrary to many out there, we see this as an interim bottom that has formed that will make a run at resistance levels. It may not be successful. There has been a lot of selling and there is now a lot of overhead and resistance to overcome. We will let the market tell us if it is going to do that, but we will do that by continuing to focus on what brought us here: stocks with good numbers and good patterns. Hate to sound like a broken record, but look at the up days and the down days of late: we still have stocks we are following breaking higher and making the moves we are looking for whether the day is 'up' or 'down' on the indexes. Just because the market overall starts to rally it does not mean we just start jumping on the old names and trying to ride them higher. We stick with the gameplan, or as a famous Texas coach once said, "we dance with who brung us." That is easy anyway because these are the leading stocks that are setting the pace anyway.
Support and Resistance Levels
Nasdaq: Closed at 2031.24.
Resistance: 2052 to 2077 is the bottom of the trading range. 2129.66 is the 50 day MVA.
Support: 1961 to 1852.
S&P 500: Closed at 1223.14.
Resistance: 1232 to 1240 are the bottoms of the trading range. Then 1250.
Support: 1200 is the next level. Head and shoulders bottom and the breakout support from the double bottom pattern is right at 1182.
Dow: Closed at 10,647.33.
Resistance: 10,750 to 10,800 where the down trendline between the January 2000 all-time high and the September high is currently (and the 50 day MVA is at 10,779.30). 11,000 is possible resistance after that. Then 11,196.53 (the last top). After that, 11,350.
Support: 10,560 is trying to form as support. Then 10,400 is the point of consummation for the head and shoulders pattern and some previous lows.
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
6-19-01
Housing starts for May (8:30): 1.622M actual versus 1.60M expected and 1.629 prior (revised upward from 1.609M).
Building permits for May (8:30): 1.621M (+2.1%) versus 1.630M expected and 1.587M prior.
6-20-01
Leading Economic Indicators for May (10:00): 0.5% actual versus 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior.
Treasury Budget for May (2:00): -$17.5B expected versus -$3.6B prior.
6-21-01
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 430,000 expected versus 428,000 prior.
Trade balance for April (8:30): -$30.9B expected versus -$31.2B prior
Current Account for Q1 (10:00): -$106.0B expected versus -$115.3B prior.
Philly Fed for June (12:00): -10.0 expected versus -8.8 prior.
TEAM TRADES
EBAY: EBAY has been outperforming the market this year by a mile, and it has been in a lateral consolidation after breaking out of a cup with handle pattern in April. A flat consolidation following a cup with handle breakout can lead to powerful gains, and some good news on EBAY today vaulted it higher. We were ready as it was a play we loved on the TTR. Breakout was 66.50, and that came at about 1:30 CT. The alert came on eSignal and the stock jumped to 67.50 and then fell back to 66.75 on a test of the breakout. The stock was trading at 66.82 by 66.83 within a few pennies, so the limit was put in at 66.85 as the stock was starting to move up. The fill was made around 1:50, and the stock moved on up to close at 69.50 on strong volume. Now we are looking for some more positions in the morning. As it closed on the high, the market makers may open the stock lower to replenish their supply of stock (they sell as much as they can when they can). If we see it open lower and then start back up and the market overall still looks good in the morning, we will look for more positions on that drop when it starts back up. It happens pretty fast.
For a review of frequently asked questions, please use the link below:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm
Investment House subscribers are offered a special from eSignal for those
interested in a realtime service. Contact:
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www.esignal.com
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: EBAY broke out! WM tacked more onto its breakout, and AW was higher, too. COO (medical) still looks good in its little pattern (6-12). Watch ASBC, a formerly covered financial stock (6-04). It fell out of an ascending wedge pattern, but made a strong move back up today, to the resistance level in that pattern (35). CTXS made a strong move today, and is looking good on the move up in its base.
Best Plays:
1) PSFT: Moving up in its handle on strong volume.
2) EBAY: Still a buy on this breakout.
3) DLIA: Strong move up after testing the breakout; huge volume!
4) FRED: Breaking out of a cup with handle.
5) ANF: Running for a break of resistance.
6) LNCR: Big move today.
New:
PSFT (Peoplesoft--$44.70; +4.08; optionable (PQO): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psft.html
STATUS: Moving up in the handle of its 5-month cup base (previous highs near 54). The stock got a strong shot of volume on the move (10.5 million; avg. 6.7 million) as it broke resistance of the short term MVAs (the stock tested the 50 day MVA last week at the 38 level). Looking for a breakout over the handle high of 47.25. Shows good money flow and positive buying. Target: $52-54.
BUY POINT: 47.38, on volume in the range of 10 million. Stop: 44.06.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $40 calls to buy (PQO JH)
Update:
EBAY (Ebay--$69.50; +6.35; optionable (QXB): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: The stock broke out over the ascending wedge buy point (66.63) Wednesday on good volume (10.4 million; avg. 6 million), and remains within our limit for buying on a breakout. We love these patterns after the breakout of a cup with handle as EBAY gave us; they often precede really great moves. The stock, since it ran up to the close, may pull back slightly on the market open tomorrow, so we will look for a move back up after that initial pullback for taking positions, or, after the stock moves back over the opening price. EBAY is in a 9-month base, showing strong money flow and buying, and high relative strength. Target: $77-78.
BUY POINT: On a move back up after an initial pullback after the market opens, or, on a move back over the opening price, both moves on increasing volume. Stop from here: 64.64 (10 day MVA, 64.40). Calculate stop losses by multiplying your buy point by .07 or .08 and subtracting from the buy point.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (QXB JL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ebay.html
Previously covered stocks:
DLIA (Delia*S--$6.45; +0.74; no options): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dlia.html
STATUS: The stock broke out of a short cup base in early June, then tested back to the 18 day MVA (5.66), from where it took off today on huge volume (3.4 million; avg. 463,045). The company announced a stock offering. We are looking for a continued move up from here and a break over the (breakout) high of 7.10. The stock shows huge money flow and great buying. Target: $9.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop: 6.00 (10 day MVA, 6.11). New high: Over 7.10 on continued strong volume. Stop: 6.60.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dlia.html
FRED (Fred's--$24.10; +2.00; no options): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fred.html
STATUS: Ready to break out of a cup with handle pattern of 10 months as volume shot above average to 157,400 (avg. 65,000). The stock split yesterday. Buy point is just above today's closing price, but on this volume, looks like the breakout is coming. The handle has been pretty volatile, but volume has dropped off nicely throughout. The stock shows huge money flow, and relative strength has broken out. Target: $27-28.
BUY POINT: 24.29, on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume is 98,000).
Stop: 22.59 (18 day MVA, 22.41).
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fred.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS:
New Leaders: CPN, SGR, ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS, NVDA, BRKS
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
ACS is holding steady and showing another doji plus strong volume today. Please check the 6-18 report for buy points. ESRX made the move we wanted, but volume was back down and well below average; please see the Tuesday night report for buy point. LLL is testing its up trendline; we will watch it for another run up.
Previous Leaders: SEBL moved up from the 40 support but volume was well below average (and down). ADBE broke a down trendline but on lower volume; we will be watching it. VRSN made a strong move today.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Newer members of the portfolio are LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. Currently existing members are EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST.
LOW popped higher again but pulled off the high on stronger volume look for a pullback. THQI is holding at support, but that stock may need another test of lower support since it couldn't hold onto the Monday high (when volume was strong).
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$45.52; +2.25; optionable (ANF): Retail: Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: The stock made a solid move after testing support at the 10 day MVA (42.56), volume up to 1.8 million (avg. 1.5 million). Retailers had a good day, and the stock took advantage, posting a new closing high, but it still needs to take out a couple of May prices, 45.75 and the May high of 47.50. ANF looks ready to do so in a continued rally; the move comes after the stock tested the May breakout. Money flow is huge and relative strength has broken out. Support at 43.25 range.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued rising volume. Stop: 42.45 (just under the 10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $42.50 calls to buy (ANF HV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/anf.html
LNCR (Lincare--$66.76; +2.81; optionable (LQN): Specialized Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: The stock lunged over 2 points on stronger, average volume Wednesday (775,000), breaking to a new high after testing its recent breakout down to the 50 day MVA (hit last week at the 57 level). The stock is set to split Monday, and while we were looking for a pullback ahead of that, the stock just might make its run here. Look for a continued move up on rising volume; on a pullback, look for support in the 64 range.
BUY POINT: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop: 62.08 (18 day MVA, 61.36).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (LQN HL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lncr.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
No reports on stocks in this portfolio tonight.
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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