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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
TEAM TRADES
EBAY: EBAY has been outperforming the market this year by a mile, and it has been in a lateral consolidation after breaking out of a cup with handle pattern in April. A flat consolidation following a cup with handle breakout can lead to powerful gains, and some good news on EBAY today vaulted it higher. We were ready as it was a play we loved on the TTR. Breakout was 66.50, and that came at about 1:30 CT. The alert came on eSignal and the stock jumped to 67.50 and then fell back to 66.75 on a test of the breakout. The stock was trading at 66.82 by 66.83 within a few pennies, so the limit was put in at 66.85 as the stock was starting to move up. The fill was made around 1:50, and the stock moved on up to close at 69.50 on strong volume. Now we are looking for some more positions in the morning. As it closed on the high, the market makers may open the stock lower to replenish their supply of stock (they sell as much as they can when they can). If we see it open lower and then start back up and the market overall still looks good in the morning, we will look for more positions on that drop when it starts back up. It happens pretty fast.
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THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
All prices reflect prices at the close on Wednesday.
BEST PLAYS: ELN continues its strong run, and we have seen several other stocks looking better: ADVS, PSFT, ABGX, WCNX, MEDI, ADRX, CTXS, INHL, CERS, QTRN. Several stocks on the report are performing well today: From last night's update, NCC and SRCL moved higher.
Best Plays:
1) EBAY: Breakout!
2) UNFI: Breaking out and still a buy.
3) DFXI: Moving up after testing the breakout. Formerly covered.
4) FITB: Mounting a move in the handle.
5) BGEN: Still holding the pattern.
6) WPI: Making a move up in the handle.
7) BORL: Broke strong resistance on good volume.
BREAKOUTS:
Continued:
EBAY (Ebay--$69.50; +6.35; optionable (QXB): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: The stock broke out over the ascending wedge buy point (66.63) Wednesday on good volume (10.4 million; avg. 6 million), and remains within our limit for buying on a breakout. We love these patterns after the breakout of a cup with handle as EBAY gave us; they often precede really great moves. The stock, since it ran up to the close, may pull back slightly on the market open tomorrow, so we will look for a move back up after that initial pullback for taking positions, or, after the stock moves back over the opening price. EBAY is in a 9-month base, showing strong money flow and buying, and high relative strength. Target: $77-78.
BUY POINT: On a move back up after an initial pullback after the market opens, or, on a move back over the opening price, both moves on increasing volume. Stop from here: 64.64 (10 day MVA, 64.40). Calculate stop losses by multiplying your buy point by .07 or .08 and subtracting from the buy point.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (QXB JL).
UNFI (United Natural Foods--$19.50; +1.22; no options): Food wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unfi.html
STATUS: Made the buy point of 19.38 on good volume today (268,200; avg. 143,000). The stock remains a buy on this move, and continues to show solid money flow and great buying. Relative strength broke out. Target: $21-22.
BUY POINT: A buy up to 20.35 on the breakout. Stop: 18.14 (18 day MVA, 18.09).
POSITION: Stock.
New (from the weekend):
FISV (Fiserv--$61.49; +1.40; optionable (FQV): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
STATUS: Continued the breakout from the ascending wedge as volume rose again Wednesday (2.37 million; avg. 1.5 million). The stock has moved out of our range for chasing a breakout, so we are looking now for a pullback. Still looks strong, though. Relative strength has broken out. Target: $64.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up from a test of the 59.25 range, or the pivot point of 58.28.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (FQV IK).
TESTS OF THE BREAKOUT: Some of these stocks are moving back on low volume to test the breakout. We often take profits on option plays when they start to pullback on the breakout move and then get back in when the stock bounces up off of the breakout point. This second move is where some of the biggest gains are made.
Back on:
BORL (Borland--$13.20; +0.25; optionable (BLQ): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/borl.html
STATUS: Testing the early June breakout. The stock tried to make the desired move, hitting 14.45 Tuesday but intraday sold back to the 10 day MVA. It held support there for a move back up today, but not before testing the 18 day MVA on the low of 12.36. Volume dropped back on the move to 684,300 (avg. 892,000). We will see if BORL can mount the move from here or the 10 day (12.92) on strong volume. Target: $18.
BUY POINT: Over 14.45 on volume in the range of 924,000. Stop: 13.44.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $10 calls to buy (BLQ JB).
Continued:
Back on (Wednesday):
DFXI (Direct Focus--$42.06; +3.81; optionable (DQF): Consumer durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dfxi.html
STATUS: Made a strong move off the 18 day MVA (38.37) on good volume which came in lower at 456,700 (avg. 292,000). The stock had tested its strong early June breakout, and looks ready now to take out the high of 43.60. Showing great money flow and buying. Relative strength broke out. Target: $53-54.
BUY POINT: Over 44 on volume of 617,000 or better. Stop: 39.12 (10 day MVA, 39.59).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $35 calls to buy (DQF JG).
HET (Harrah's Entertainment--$36.80; -0.90; optionable (HET): Leisure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/het.html
STATUS: Dropped out of the consolidation that was holding above the 10 day MVA (37.42) and broke support of the 18 day MVA (37.12) on selling (volume was strong and well above average at 1.25 million). No new positions.
MOVING AVERAGE BOUNCES:
A revisited stock (from the weekend):
BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond--$31.22; +0.14; optionable (BHQ): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Has looked good since it bounced from support (50 day MVA, now at 28.93)
Friday. The stock has moved since, today reaching on the high 32.22 (above recent highs), but pulling back even as volume was much higher at 4.95 million (avg. 3.3 million) on news of a downgrade. The stock was holding at 31 after hours; if it pulls back tomorrow again look for support at the 10 day MVA (30.22). Earnings are out after the bell tomorrow. Initial target: $35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from 30-31 on continued strong volume. Stop: 27.90 (50 day MVA, 28.93).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (BHQ HY).
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
Ascending wedges:
New:
BBY (BestBuy--$61.68; +1.48; optionable (BBY): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: The stock is in an ascending wedge that formed mid-way up the right side of a 15-month base. Volume is at or below average for most of the pattern (the stock was hit with stronger selling volume Tuesday when it tried to break out of the current consolidation). Volume Wednesday was back down to 1.9 million (avg. 2.7 million) with the stock testing the 10 day MVA on the low of 59.61. Looking for a breakout over upper resistance at the 62.50 level. Huge money flow and high relative strength. Target:
BUY POINT: 63.13, on volume of 3.6 million or better. Stop: 58.71 (18 day MVA, 58.54). Can re-test the 10 day MVA before breaking out.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (BBY IK).
Continued: Two stocks from Thursday's update report:
BGEN (Biogen--$64.18; +1.13; optionable (BGQ): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Still holding the ascending wedge pattern, giving us some false starts lately but looking good as the pattern squeezes down; patience is key, as usual. The stock opened above the 50 day MVA (62.67) then moved to a high of 65.58 but pulled back down despite higher volume (3.7 million; avg. 3.4 million). Looking for the breakout and a target of $75.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 66.13 on volume of 4.5 million or better. Stop: 61.50 (50 day MVA, 62.67).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (BGQ JL).
Pennant:
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$23.28; -0.85; optionable (QLO): Health Service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: Tried the breakout move but volume just didn't support, and the stock fell back to close just under its 10 day MVA Wednesday (23.36). Will likely test the 18 day MVA at 22.90, but the play has lost its steam. Volume was lower at 142,800 (avg. 126,000). We will watch it for a strong move back over Tuesday's high of 25.
BUY POINT: Over 25 on stronger volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $20 calls to buy (QLO JD).
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
Watchlist: RE keeps forming that handle. BVF moved out of a 2-day lateral movement on stronger volume. DMRC tried to break over its recent high on stronger volume but pulled back down looks interesting.
New (from Monday):
GDW (Golden West--$67.02; +0.52; optionable (GDW): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdw.html
STATUS: Made a good move early, hitting a high of 68, then pulled back down to a doji. Volume was stronger at 778,900 (avg. 716,000). GDW broke out of the small ascending wedge on Tuesday, and looked ready to add to the breakout, which of course it did, but looks like the move will be cut short here. Look for a test of the 66 range or the buy point of 65.13 on a pullback. Initial target: $71 (highs at the start of the base).
BUY POINT: On a move back up from the 65 range (or better). Stop: 60.57.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (GDW HM).
Continued from last week's update reports:
AVIR (Aviron--$55.50; -0.17; optionable (QCV): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avir.html
STATUS: Has dipped below the short term MVAs in the handle, showing a doji after a pullback off this high of 64.36. Volume was quite strong at 937,000 (avg. 522,000). The stock closed just above potential support at the 55 level, but the high volume is problematic for a move back up. Money flow is strong but dipping back somewhat from its recent peak, though the stock continues to show good buying. We will see if it can head back up from here. The 50 day MVA is at 52.01. Target: $71-74.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over the 10 day MVA (57.80) on strong volume. Stop: 53.75. Breakout: 64.49, on volume of 783,000 or better. Stop: 59.98.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (QCV HJ). Breakout: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (QCV HK).
WPI (Watson Pharmaceuticals--$63.43; +1.35; optionable (WPI): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wpi.html
STATUS: Made a solid move up in the handle to its 7.5-month cup base (which is part of a larger base). Looking for the breakout over the handle high at 64.10. Volume was up to 788,800 (avg. 899,000). Shows great money flow and strong buying. Target: $71-74.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 64.23, on volume of 1.35 million or better. Stop: 59.73 (just under the 18 day, at 60.59).
POSITION: Breakout: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (WPI HL).
New (from the weekend):
IDPH (Idec Pharmaceuticals--$70.84; +0.84; optionable (IHD): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idph.html
STATUS: Hit resistance (handle high is 75) Monday, and is now testing again the 10 day MVA (69.92). The stock is showing a doji at that support after coming off a high of 73.50 on strong volume (4.9 million; avg. 4 million). The low tested near the 18 day MVA (67.62), so we will see if the stock can mount a move back up from here. Shows solid money flow, relative strength and decent buying. Target: $83-86.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop: 65.88. Breakout: 75.13, on volume of 6 million or more. Stop: 69.87.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $70 calls to buy (IHD JN).
CRL (Charles River Labs--$33.95; +1.95; optionable (CRL): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crl.html
STATUS: Made a good move up on strong volume (253,200; avg. 199,090), closing just under our buy point in the cup with handle. The stock ran up from last week's test of the 50 day MVA and now looks ready to make its breakout. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out.. Target: $38-40.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 34.13, on volume of 299,000 or better. Stop: 31.74 (10 day MVA, 31.35). A buy on the breakout up to 35.84.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (CRL HE; no open interest).
A trading range:
XLNX (Xilinx--$41.78; +1.14; optionable (XLQ): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: The stock is trading roughly in a range between 40 and 50 since early May, the entire pattern below the 200 day MVA (53.75). It tried to break resistance Tuesday but turned back down from the 18 and 50 day MVAs (43.26 and 43.75, respectively), for a move back down to support at the 40 range. That is where the stock opened and moved up on stronger volume Wednesday (7.7 million; avg. 8.8 million). We are looking for a run back up to the 50 level.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over the 50 day MVA (43.75) on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $40 calls to buy (XLQ IH).
Continued: PDLI was listed as a put play, but the stock made a strong move back over resistance today.
FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$60.24; +0.80; optionable (FTQ):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
STATUS: Moved up in the handle of its 6.5-month cup base, reaching a high of 60.81 on stronger, average volume of 1.67 million. Looking for the breakout over handle high of 61.11. Great money flow and good buying, and relative strength is out ahead of price.
Target: $65-68.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 61.24, on volume of 2.5 million or better. Stop: 56.95 (50 day MVA, 57.22).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (TTQ HK).
BLPG (Boron Lepore--$14.60; +0.40; no options): Diversified services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blpg.html
STATUS: Finally broke resistance at 14.50 as volume supported, coming in at 168,100 (avg. 88,000). We are looking for a breakout over the handle high of 14.75, and this move is encouraging. Shows outstanding money flow. Target: $16-17.
BUY POINT: 14.88, on volume of 132,000 or better. Stop: 13.90 (18 day MVA, 14.09).
POSITION: Stock.
WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.02; -0.43; optionable (FMQ): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Isn't giving us a move back up in the handle, which is really stretching out now. The stock on stronger volume (558,700; avg. 483,000) broke support of the 18 day MVA (27.56). Look for a test of the 50 day MVA at 26.31 from here. Target on a breakout: $35-38.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 29.55, on volume of 725,000 or more. Stop: 27.48.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (FMQ HE).
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$66.92; +2.94; optionable (DGX): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Broke through resistance just over 66 and on strong volume of 654,100 (avg. 398,000) closed just under our buy point. The stock dropped back to test near the 50 day MVA Friday, but headed up from there, and if it gets another shot of higher volume can seriously work on the June high at 70.15 (handle high in the 5.5-month cup base. A welcome move. Money flow is solid and buying decent, and relative strength broke out ahead of price. Target: $75-77.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on higher volume. Stop: 62.24.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (DGX HL).
Good Investing!
Your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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