|
|
stock watch, stock trading site
Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1957.96
Resistance: October high (1967) is now back in play. The near top of the channel (1977ish). The second, higher channel hit in September is at 2002ish. Then 2000 to 2050, the early January 2002 double top.
Support: The 18 day MVA (1920). The September high (1913). 1860 to 1865. The 50 day MVA (1869). The March/August up trendline (1866).
S&P 500: Closed at 1053.25
Resistance: 1054 (October highs) is not completely broken. The December to June upper channel line at 1064ish. 1050 and 1080 from February 2002 lows. 1100 represents some early 2001 lows. 1150 to 1175, the early 2002 double top.
Support: The 10 day MVA (1047) and the 18 day MVA (1042). 1040, the September highs. 1030 to 1032 (early September highs). The exponential 50 day MVA (1027). The top of the summer range at 1015. 1010 the early September highs. 975 (December 1997 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9838.83
Resistance: The October high (9850) is again the near resistance to beat. 10,000 is the candle that attracts the moth.
Support: 9800 (April and May 2002 lows). The 10 day MVA (9765). The 18 day MVA (9722). 9686 (September high). 9588 the early September highs. The exponential 50 day MVA (9580). 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the summer range.
Economic Calendar
11-03-03
ISM Index, October (10:00): 57.0 actual, 55.9 expected, 53.7 September.
Construction spending, September (10:00): 1.3% actual, 0.4% expected, 0.7% August (revised from 0.2%).
11-05-03
ISM Services, October (10:00): 63.4 expected, 63.3 September.
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.6% expected -0.8% August.
11-06-03
Productivity, Q3 (8:30): 8.5% expected, 6.8% Q2.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 380K expected, 386K prior.
11-07-03
Non-farm payrolls, October (8:30): 65K expected, 57K September.
Unemployment rate, October (8:30): 6.1% expected, 6.1% September.
Hourly earnings, October: 0.2% expected, -0.1% September.
Average workweek: 33.8 expected, 33.7 September
Wholesale inventories, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% August.
Consumer credit, September (3:00): $5.3B expected, $8.2B August.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/04/2003
RWY (Rent-Way--$6.04; +0.2; no options): Rent to own stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rwy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A short (7 week) but very nice pattern that has formed over key support at the 50 day MVA (5.55), using that as support for the bottom of the cup. Accumulation is a solid 2 to 1 (2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume), setting the stage for solid breakout. Money flow is running up ahead of the price as it moves laterally at 6 on lower volume (the lateral move that makes up the handle). Relative strength is rising for the breakout, another good indication of strength. Volume started up Tuesday as it started off the 10 day MVA. Just looking for a volume surge through the breakout point.
Volume: 84.5K Avg Volume: 97.318K
BUY POINT: $6.24 Volume=146K Target=$7.85 Stop=$5.79
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rwy.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
SCMR (Sycamore Networks--$5.23; -0.02; optionable): PC networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scmr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Taking another look at SCMR ahead of the CSCO earnings Wednesday after the close. SCMR is moving through an 8 week pattern that is making its bounces up off of the 50 day MVA (4.86), using that key level as support. It again approaches the breakout point, the constant highs near 5.40. We really like these patterns because they build up pressure for explosive breakouts. Strong 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern with strong money flow and relative strength ready for the breakout as well.
Volume: 1.344M Avg Volume: 2.132M
BUY POINT: $5.39 Volume=3M Target=$6.72 Stop=$5.06
POSITION: SMZ CA - Mar. $5c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/scmr.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
TVIA (Tvia--$2.28; +0.21; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tvia.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Another stock using the 50 day MVA (1.85) as support for the base as it moves up with a series of higher lows and a constant top near 2.20. TVIA was making a breakout move Tuesday on strong, above average volume. It backed off from the high (2.45) on the close, but it looks like a good start to the breakout. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 0. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looks ready to reumble.
Volume: 340.791K Avg Volume: 145.863K
BUY POINT: $2.38 Volume=219K Target=$3.09 Stop=$2.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tvia.html
Good movers Tuesday: AMSWA; EGOV; GBN; ILXO; LENS; OPSW; PDYN; RETK
Continuing plays that still look good: BRKS; CKSW; OLXO; JNPR; OPSW; PLXT; SINA; DKS
CONTINUING PLAY LIST: This week the summary table breaks out the upside and downside plays into different sections labeled accordingly.
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AKAM 10/21 Cup hdl 9.42 +0.11 6.42 8 6.8M 2.4M 5.88
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume. Looking for a pull back to enter the play.
ALGN 11/03 Test BO 17.02 +0.09 17.05 20.45 1.2M 616K 15.82
Buy Not Issued. More volatile session with 17.33 at the high and 16.30 at the low. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume. Did not enter the play today, because of the volatility. Will watch the stock tomorrow to see if we want to enter.
AMSWA 10/23 Test BO 7 +0.25 6.12 7.45 221K 150K 6.04
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Tapped 6.62 at the day's low and rallied.
AV 09/25 Flat 13.22 +0.16 11.38 13.65 5M 4.4M 12.75
Current. Formed a nice handle. May be ready to break out. Bounced off the 10 day on stronger but still below average volume.
AVO 10/30 Cup hdl 19.44 -0.24 19.72 23.68 141K 359K 18.34
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on very low volume. Managed to retain all of last Thursday's explosive move. Still in uptrend.
BBA 10/29 Test BO 13.58 +0.06 13.76 16.45 343K 749K 12.76
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
BRKS 10/29 Cup 26.27 -0.51 27 32.38 800K 1.4M 24.74
Current. Volatile session with 27.12 at the high and 6.01 at the low showing a tight doji on below average volume.
BRLI 10/20 Cup hdl 17.84 +0.72 13.45 16.22 164K 212K 14.96
Current. continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 7.38 -0.07 7.58 9.12 35K 145K 7.05
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on very low volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
CELL 10/02 Test 18 28.03 +0.13 23.25 28 566K 1M 25.92
Current. Move up on very low volume. Stock is making higher lows. Still in good shape.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 28.03 +0.13 12.83 15.51 566K 225K 25.92
Current.
CHT 10/16 Cup hdl 15.09 -0.58 15.62 18.75 436K 1.1M 14.88
Buy Not Issued. Big gap down below the 18 day MVA showing a tight doji on below average volume.
CKSW 10/25 Test BO 3.22 +0.08 3.08 4.05 495K 300K 2.81
Buy Not Issued. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
CORI 10/27 Test BO 6.59 -0.13 6.25 7.85 490K 550K 6.08
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 7.06 -0.25 4.32 5.38 988K 315K 6.48
Current. Pull back on lower, but still above average volume. May test down a bit further. Still in good shape.
DJO 09/11 Cup 20.41 +0.27 14 16.45 166K 100K 16.91
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume. Tapped 21.53 at the day's high, but could not hold the entire gain.
DKS 10/13 Cup 46.82 -0.18 44.68 55.38 201K 603K 45.22
Current. Narrow trading range showing a doji on below average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 5.05 +0.21 4.3 5.22 447K 300K 4.63
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice move on stronger above average volume.
EGHT 10/30 Cup 2.38 -0.08 2.15 2.91 761K 823K 1.97
Current. More volatile with 2.60 at the high and 2.25 at the low showing a doji on lower, but above average volume. Still in good shape and moving up the 10 day MVA.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 5.85 +0.31 5.07 6.35 629K 264K 4.96
Current. Another great move up as the stock soars up the 10 day MVA on lower, but very strong volume.
EGOV 09/20 Cup hdl 5.85 +0.31 4.8 5.68 629K 264K 4.96
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 13.49 +0.02 11.24 13.38 157K 350K 12.18
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 13.49 +0.02 9.33 11.12 157K 400K 12.18
Current.
EVCI 10/20 Cup hdl 4.55 -0.22 3.4 4.38 117K 125K 3.98
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Managed to retain most of last Friday's great move. Still in good shape.
FRED 10/30 A Wedge 37.64 -0.35 38.88 46.55 382K 526K 36.16
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on average volume. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.2 +0.19 1.86 2.42 971K 300K 1.77
Current. Gapped up for an explosive move on strong volume surge.
GEMS 10/22 Test BO 3.15 +0.03 2.87 3.72 314K 487K 2.78
Current. Volatile session with 3.22 at the high and 3.07 at the low. Beginning to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
GIGM 10/01 Cup hdl 3.18 +0.17 3.12 4.05 3.1M 2.7M 2.78
Current. Completed the test of the breakout and began to move back up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
GNSC 10/09 Test BO 3.2 +0.1 2.65 3.47 162K 175K 2.68
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied higher on average volume as the stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
IFLO 09/22 Test BO 14.7 +0.57 11.29 13.55 150K 375K 13.36
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
IFLO 09/09 Flat 14.7 +0.57 9.62 11.52 150K 426K 13.36
Current.
ILXO 10/28 Dbl btm 21.86 +0.88 21.42 25.75 515K 692K 19.72
Buy Not Issued. Nice move up on stronger above average volume. Tapped 22.37 at the day's high, but gave back some of the gain. Saw the stock was pulling back at the close so waited before we went in hoping to get a better entry point.
JNPR 11/01 A Wedge 18.5 -0.05 18.38 22 7.6M 15M 17.22
Buy Not Issued. Continuing low volume ascent up the 10 day MVA. Have not entered the play because volume is not there.
KOSP 10/29 Cup 44.2 +4.2 40.58 48.68 2.6M 727K 37.48
Buy Not Issued. Raised its 2004 revenue estimates and gapped sharply higher. Did not want to chase it on the gap and will see if it comes back to test the breakout near 42.50.
LENS 10/29 A Wedge 13.9 +1.09 13.17 15.78 922K 750K 12.18
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on strong volume surge.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 84.2 -0.39 58.5 67.78 414K 610K 79.94
Current. Pull back on slightly higher, but still below average volume. Still in good shape.
LOUD 10/23 Flat 2.64 +0.04 2.75 3.78 1.5M 3.6M 2.48
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on below
NCI 10/25 Cup hdl 17 +0.2 16.05 19.22 243K 559K 15.55
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on below average volume. Tested the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Did not enter the play, because we were not happy with the action.
NEXM 10/14 Cup hdl 5.06 -0.18 5.03 6.28 171K 292K 4.78
Current. Gapped down and moved down to hold the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 5.21 -0.12 5.27 6.32 342K 319K 4.75
Current. Pull back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape and moving up the 10 day MVA.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 5.21 -0.12 4.78 6.21 342K 280K 4.54
Current.
NVLS 10/28 Test 50 44.45 +0.51 39.84 47.75 10M 9.5M 39.33
Current. Nice move up following yesterday's explosive move on strong volume. Stock continues to soar up the 10 day MVA.
NXG 10/15 Cup 2.15 +0.12 1.89 2.48 934K 684K 1.92
Current. Continue the move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on above average volume.
NXTL 10/02 Cup hdl 24.02 -0.44 20.76 24.95 14M 27M 23.02
Current. Pull back on slightly higher, but still below average volume. Testing the breakout.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 24.02 -0.44 20.64 24.75 14M 24M 23.02
Current.
OLGC 10/18 Test BO 7.06 -0.01 7.15 8.58 299K 342K 6.88
Current. Continue to make a lateral move along the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Tapped 7.40 at the day's high, but gave it back.
ONNN 10/28 Test 50 4.3 -0.08 4.65 5.88 1.1M 1.7M 4.42
Current. Continue low volume lateral move on the 50 day MVA.
OPSW 10/28 A Wedge 9.09 +0.67 8.95 10.95 1.3M 1M 8.32
Current. Entered the play as the stock bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on stronger above average volume. Broke through resistance at 9.04.
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 3.39 +0.14 2.55 3.24 436K 450K 3.15
Current. Great move up off the 18 day MVA on strong above average volume. Broke out from handle.
PKI 10/09 DB hdl 18.67 +0.37 17.18 20.65 527K 1.1M 16.21
Buy Not Issued. Continue low volume ascent of the 10 day MVA. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there.
PLXS 11/03 DB hdl 18.37 +0.43 19.06 22.75 845K 528K 17.55
Current. Rallied sharply on some strong trade, but gave much of the move back on us. Still solid, but don't like the turn off session highs on the breakout attempt.
PLXT 11/03 A Wedge 8.31 -0.08 8.68 10.85 81K 222K 8.07
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on very low volume. Still in uptrend.
PUMA 10/27 A Wedge 7.37 -0.14 7.34 9.06 1.4M 1.4M 6.83
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave back the move and then some of average volume. Stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
QLGC 10/14 Rv H&S 57.04 -0.57 52.88 63.38 3M 7M 54.38
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Still in the uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
RETK 10/06 A Wedge 10.66 +0.56 8.49 10.25 763K 776K 9.72
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move up on above average volume.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 41.23 +0.29 41.55 50 6.9M 15M 39.42
Current. Narrow trading range showing a doji on below average volume. May be ready for next move up.
SINA 09/09 Cup 41.23 +0.29 36.15 41 6.9M 12M 37.55
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 41.23 +0.29 32.2 38.25 6.9M 10M 37.55
Current.
SOFO 10/02 Test BO 2.45 +0.11 2.05 2.74 238K 395K 2.14
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 34.96 -0.26 37.69 45 3.3M 9M 34.85
Current. Gapped down showing a doji below the 50 day MVA on below average volume. Tapped 36.19 at the day's high, but gave it back. Stock needs to hold here.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 65.7 +1.27 61.51 73 220K 501K 62.52
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and made a nice move on below average volume as stock continue to climb the 10 day MVA.
TELM 09/30 Test BO 1.52 -0.09 1.51 2.04 3.2M 7M 1.48
Current. Apparently from the after market announcement yesterday of the reverse stock split the stock fell below the 18 day MVA on higher, but still well below average volume. Tapped support at 1.50, but rallied. May test further.
TRPH 11/01 A Wedge 5.48 +0.09 5.31 6.62 2M 1.8M 4.85
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume. Tapped 5.80 at the day's high, but gave back most of the move.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 43.44 -0.05 23.42 27.62 311K 603K 39.74
Current. Narrow trading range showing a tight doji on below average volume. Stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.44 -0.05 21.88 26 311K 603K 39.74
Current.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 29.84 -0.09 27.65 33.18 9.5M 18M 27.94
Current. Pull back showing a doji on below average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 66.18 +0.58 64.5 74.25 627K 1.1M 61.98
Current. More volatile with 66.75 at the high and 65.09 at the low. Stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
WFII 10/31 Cup hdl 18.39 -0.05 17.24 20.62 3.7M 1M 15.96
Current. Gapped down and then tapped 17.50 at the day's low to rally on stronger above average volume. Still in uptrend. Managed to retain almost all of yesterday's great move.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 33.12 -0.18 32.68 38.68 5.5M 11M 30.88
Current. More volatile. Gapped down at the open, but managed to recover some of the loss on below average volume. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 64.83 +0.23 51.12 59.55 1.1M 3M 61.32
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ASCA 11/01 Put 20.73 -0.56 20.92 18.85 172K 185K 22.08
Buy Not Issued. Good move down on above average volume. Did not enter because the volume was declining in the last few days. If makes a clear break down will enter.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock watch
stock trading site
|
