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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: CLKS; ECIL; MIPS; STLW; USNA
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 11/04/2003
CFC (Countrywide Financial--$104.80; -0.03; optionable): Mortgages. Splits 4:3 on 12-18-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. CFC is making a series of big blasts higher in its run up out of the September breakout from a 3 month cup with handle base. It tends to move laterally in a tight range as it is doing now and then blasts off. Tight range, low, below average volume on the move. The 10 day MVA (103.05) is rising up to meet it, and that is what typically sets off the next break higher. Excellent money flow still moving up ahead of the price as it moves laterally. Getting ready to go again.
Volume: 1.512M Avg Volume: 2.427M
BUY POINT: $105.75 Volume=2.5M Target=$115 Stop=$103
POSITION: CFC AA - Jan. $105c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cfc.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
DIOD (Diodes--$25.94; +1.92; no options): Splits 3:2 on 11-4-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Cup breakout. DIOD is surging out of a 15 week base showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Strong volume break higher Tuesday, clearing resistance. This opens the door for a bigger gain down the road.
Volume: 169.874K Avg Volume: 36.09K
BUY POINT: $26.08 Volume=75K Target=$31.25 Stop=$24.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$47; -0.4; optionable): Medical labs. Splits 3:2 on 11-4-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA (46.43). ERES has surged this year in a remarkable run from near $10 to $50. It just hit 50 last week and is now coming back to test that move. It fell hard Friday, but then checked up abruptly Monday at the 10 day and held there again Tuesday, showing a doji on lower, average volume. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looking for a jump back up from here on stronger trade.
Volume: 760.594K Avg Volume: 731.954K
BUY POINT: $47.64 Volume=1.1M Target=$54.85 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: UDB AB - Jan. $47.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/04/2003
TVIA (Tvia--$2.28; +0.21; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tvia.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Another stock using the 50 day MVA (1.85) as support for the base as it moves up with a series of higher lows and a constant top near 2.20. TVIA was making a breakout move Tuesday on strong, above average volume. It backed off from the high (2.45) on the close, but it looks like a good start to the breakout. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 0. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looks ready to reumble.
Volume: 340.791K Avg Volume: 145.863K
BUY POINT: $2.38 Volume=219K Target=$3.09 Stop=$2.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tvia.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/27/2003
CATS (Catalyst Semiconductor--$7.38; -0.07; no options): Chips for microcontrollers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cats.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Coming back to the 10 day MVA (7.15) on the breakou test after a big volume rally attempt Monday that gave back half of the move. Low volume test of the 10 day Tuesday, and still a strong base behind it (11 week cup with handle base showing positive 2 to 1 accumulation. Money flow is still excellent along with strong relative strength.
Volume: 35.07K Avg Volume: 134.227K
BUY POINT: New: $7.55 (orig. $6.88) Volume=145K Target=$8.38 Stop=$6.52
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cats.html
Play Date: 10/23/2003
LOUD (Loudeye--$2.64; +0.04; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/loud.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. LOUD surged higher at the end of October, moving out of the nice 15 week base on solid trade. It has spent the past week coming back to test the move on lower volume, tapping the 18 day MVA (2.47) on the intraday low and rebounding. Poised for another break higher from here.
Volume: 1.486M Avg Volume: 2.008M
BUY POINT: $2.75 Volume=3.6M Target=$3.78 Stop=$2.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/loud.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Many stocks making moves without announcing splits as companies are still a bit gun-shy. Still getting strong moves from these leaders, and that is why we love split-caliber stocks. They also tend to announce after earnings as JAH did this evening. At this juncture many have rallied higher out of buy position, but there are still some that look ready to move. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong.
ACV: No split on 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. Still running higher.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03 but moving well with the tremendous earnings report.
AVP: No split on 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: No split on 10-15-03 after the close but moving very well.
CEDC: Forecast 11-11-03.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03. No announcement 11-4; looking to December earnings.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
DLTR: Forecast 11-25-03 after the close.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03.
FRED: Forecast 11-20-03.
LM: No split on 10-22 with earnings. Still in a strong uptrend.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
ORLY: No split announced10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03. A leader setting up for the next move.
UOPX: Researching the next date. Tested the 50 day MVA and gave a good entry point.
VRTS: No split announced on 10-22-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/04/2003
MIK (Michaels--$48.13; +0.3; optionable): Arts and craft stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-31-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. MIK is bunching up against 48, the top of its 9 week pattern showing positive 2 to 1 accumulation. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout. Consumer stocks are performing well, and this time stock has made an excellent recovery. This short pattern is actually part of a 14 month reverse head and shoulders, another accumulation pattern. It has been moving laterally on low volume the past three weeks, so we want to see volume spike up on the break through the buy point.
Volume: 413.488K Avg Volume: 582.181K
BUY POINT: $48.65 Volume=873K Target=$58.38 Stop=$47.21
POSITION: MIK CT - Mar. $47.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$68.85; -0.18; optionable): Makeup. Looking for the next announcement date as it did not announce on 10-28-03 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice break higher Monday, but no volume. Tuesday it edged back on continued below average trade after clearing that resistance at 68. Give the low volume move we are looking for a pullback to test that 68 level and then starting up on some volume. Want to see that volume.
Volume: 737.975K Avg Volume: 906.181K
BUY POINT: New: Test toward 68.25, then $68.38 on the way back up (orig. $66.68) Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$67.12
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$43.62; -0.45; optionable): Medical Instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 11-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 12-11-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company will not confirm the date for the board meeting, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-5-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $52.94. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-03 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Still on the verge of a breakout from its 7 week base, moving just over 43 where the 'hump' in the 'w' is. It is forming that handle, the shakeout of the last sellers where the stock moves laterally on low volume. Tuesday it tapped the 10 day MVA (42.89) on the low and rebounded to recoup most of the losses. Forming up well here. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 0. Super buying and solid money flow.
Volume: 217.754K Avg Volume: 395.09K
BUY POINT: $44.06 Volume=550K Target=$50.88 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: COO BI - Feb. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 10/23/2003
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$38.24; -0.28; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-25-00 at a stock price of $56.69.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Cup. DLTR is forming a nice handle to its 7 week cup base, falling back to the 10 day MVA (37.80) and holding that on low volume. Nice doji at that level. This is the best action for the pattern, a nice ending to the 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern. Now all we need to see the breakout on strong trade.
Volume: 723.991K Avg Volume: 1.451M
BUY POINT: New: 38.65 (orig. $37.92) Volume=2.3M Target=$45.55 Stop=$35.94
POSITION: DQO BU - Feb. $37.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dltr.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$26.9; -0.42; optionable): Watches, shoes, fashion accessories. Forecast to announce a split on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.70. the annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle though it tried to make the breakout Monday on stronger, above average volume. Tuesday it moved lower on low trade, further forming the handle to its 9 week base. It is forming this handle just below the hump in the W pattern (roughly 27.17), must where it should. Money flow is super, running higher as the stock moves laterally. Looking for it to follow the money flow.
Volume: 133.073K Avg Volume: 246.863K
BUY POINT: $27.32 Volume=369K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.25
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 10/30/2003
FRED (Freds Inc.--$37.64; -0.35; optionable): Another discount variety store. Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Split in July 2003, February 2002, June 2001, the last two around $35.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fred.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FRED continues to move laterally after the big surge last Thursday, holding onto its gains on much lower average volume. When a stock holds its gains after a solid move that is a sign of strength as few want to sell it. It may spend the next two sessions moving laterally ahead of the employment numbers, and we will wait for it to do so. We are looking for that higher volume move badck up. We raised the buy point to make it clear that it has cleared the lateral move before we move in.
Volume: 389.582K Avg Volume: 368.909K
BUY POINT: $38.88 Volume=526K Target=$46.55 Stop=$36.16
POSITION: FMU BG - Feb. $35c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fred.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$71.50; -0.50; optionable): Online education. No split with October earnings. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. UOPX made its second bounce off the 50 day MVA (66.90) Monday, rallying on rising, above average volume. This was the second bounce from this level in two weeks as buyers step in to support the stock as it moved lower to test that level on lower volume. Tuesday it took a breather with the market, and it may move laterally before the employment report, edging back toward 71. We will look for the next break higher from that level on volume for the next entry point.
Volume: 211.313K Avg Volume: 243.636K
BUY POINT: New: $72.35 (orig. $71.12) Volume=315K Target=$84 Stop=$68.72
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$37.05; -0.12; optionable) Application software. No split announced on 10-20-03 with earnings. Moving well and researching the next split date.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. VRTS broke out of a 7 week reverse head and shoulders base 6 sessions back. It has moved laterally on lower, below average volume since then, holding over the 10 day MVA (36.28). It looks as if it will move laterally for two more sessions until the 10 day rises to meet the stock. That typically will send a strong stock ready to move on the next leg higher.
Volume: 4.298M Avg Volume: 6.135M
BUY POINT: New: $37.75 (orig. $35.77) Volume=1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$35.21
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/27/2003
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$51.7; +1.63; optionable): Splits 3:2 on 11-14-2003
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Pre-split. Continuing the move up off the 18 day MVA (48.93) though volume fell off on Tuesday. With a pre-split you are looking at momentum, so the drop in volume was not that disturbing. For new positions from here, however, we want to see more trade to give it legs for a stronger run. Otherwise we let the current positions run and then wait for the next test to give us the next entry point if it can before the split.
Volume: 334.109K Avg Volume: 371.59K
BUY POINT: New: $52.35 (orig. $50.25, $48.99), but need to see the volume. Volume=550K Target=$55.88 Stop=$47.44
POSITION: BHE AJ - Jan. 50c (35 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
BLUD (Immucor--$30.32; +0.36; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Splits 3:2 on 11-17-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. A tantalizing pattern that really tried to blast off Monday but it could not hold the move even as volume moved up easily above average. Tuesday it tried to get back on track but volume was way down. Still very solid in its 6 week pattern that is turning into something of a triangle. Want to see another good volume push on the next move higher to move into positions.
Volume: 124.962K Avg Volume: 204.363K
BUY POINT: New: $30.68 (orig. $30.22) Volume=320K Target=$34.78 Stop=$29.08
POSITION: QMQ LF - Dec. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 10/23/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$67.7; -0.8; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 11-6-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another pre-split we already have positions on, but BSX is still forming a nice handle to its 7 week base. It is holding at 67.50 on low volume, setting up the next move. Very nice pattern, and a breakout puts it at a new high with no overhead resistance.
Volume: 1.719M Avg Volume: 3.705M
BUY POINT: New: 68.99 (orig. $66.80) Volume=4M Target=$75 Stop=$65.95
POSITION: BSX AM - Jan. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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