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Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1957.96
Resistance: October high (1967) is now back in play. The near top of the channel (1977ish). The second, higher channel hit in September is at 2002ish. Then 2000 to 2050, the early January 2002 double top.
Support: The 18 day MVA (1920). The September high (1913). 1860 to 1865. The 50 day MVA (1869). The March/August up trendline (1866).
S&P 500: Closed at 1053.25
Resistance: 1054 (October highs) is not completely broken. The December to June upper channel line at 1064ish. 1050 and 1080 from February 2002 lows. 1100 represents some early 2001 lows. 1150 to 1175, the early 2002 double top.
Support: The 10 day MVA (1047) and the 18 day MVA (1042). 1040, the September highs. 1030 to 1032 (early September highs). The exponential 50 day MVA (1027). The top of the summer range at 1015. 1010 the early September highs. 975 (December 1997 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9838.83
Resistance: The October high (9850) is again the near resistance to beat. 10,000 is the candle that attracts the moth.
Support: 9800 (April and May 2002 lows). The 10 day MVA (9765). The 18 day MVA (9722). 9686 (September high). 9588 the early September highs. The exponential 50 day MVA (9580). 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the summer range.
Economic Calendar
11-03-03
ISM Index, October (10:00): 57.0 actual, 55.9 expected, 53.7 September.
Construction spending, September (10:00): 1.3% actual, 0.4% expected, 0.7% August (revised from 0.2%).
11-05-03
ISM Services, October (10:00): 63.4 expected, 63.3 September.
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.6% expected -0.8% August.
11-06-03
Productivity, Q3 (8:30): 8.5% expected, 6.8% Q2.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 380K expected, 386K prior.
11-07-03
Non-farm payrolls, October (8:30): 65K expected, 57K September.
Unemployment rate, October (8:30): 6.1% expected, 6.1% September.
Hourly earnings, October: 0.2% expected, -0.1% September.
Average workweek: 33.8 expected, 33.7 September
Wholesale inventories, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% August.
Consumer credit, September (3:00): $5.3B expected, $8.2B August.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: EGOV; FALC; GBN; LENS; NXG; RETK; SCKT
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/04/2003
SCMR (Sycamore Networks--$5.23; -0.02; optionable): PC networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scmr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Taking another look at SCMR ahead of the CSCO earnings Wednesday after the close. SCMR is moving through an 8 week pattern that is making its bounces up off of the 50 day MVA (4.86), using that key level as support. It again approaches the breakout point, the constant highs near 5.40. We really like these patterns because they build up pressure for explosive breakouts. Strong 2 to 0 accumulation (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) in the pattern with strong money flow and relative strength ready for the breakout as well.
Volume: 1.344M Avg Volume: 2.132M
BUY POINT: $5.39 Volume=3M Target=$6.72 Stop=$5.06
POSITION: SMZ CA - Mar. $5c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scmr.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
JBL (Jabil Circuit--$30.11; +1.6; optionable): Contract manufacturer: Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. JBL is making the breakout move from a 9 week base showing positive 2 to 1 accumulation. The stock used the 50 day MVA (27.35) as support for the base, a very good indication that there is support for the stock as the buyers hold it over that level. Tuesday JBL surged on strong trade in part on the WMT news re a chip on every product. That is incredible news. Money flow is shooting higher and relative strength broke out on the move.
Volume: 3.574M Avg Volume: 1.437M
BUY POINT: $30.38 Volume=2.2M Target=$36.45 Stop=$28.88
POSITION: JBL CF - Mar. $30c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
RETK (Retek--$10.66; +0.56; optionable): Internet software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/retk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. It is making the next move, starting sharply higher Tuesday on continued above average volume after that wild down and up session Monday. Solid move and still a buy at this point.
Volume: 768.147K Avg Volume: 556.136K
BUY POINT: New: $10.78 (orig. $8.49) Volume=776K Target=New positions: 12.72 (orig. positions $10.25) Stop=$9.72
POSITION: QRD AU - Jan. $7.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/retk.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING: This week the summary table breaks out the upside and downside plays into different sections labeled accordingly.
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABMD 10/06 Test BO 8.91 -0.08 9.12 10.95 128K 175K 8.48
Buy Not Issued.
ACN 09/24 Test 50 24.34 +0.16 22.62 27.15 3M 3.4M 22.71
Current.
ADVP 10/25 A Wedge 51.7 -0.21 49.59 59.38 531K 3.1M 49.44
Current.
AKAM 10/21 Cup hdl 9.42 +0.11 6.42 8 6.8M 2.4M 5.88
Buy Not Issued.
AMX 11/03 Flat 25.02 +0.02 25.12 29.55 3M 1.9M 23.55
Buy Not Issued. Tried to continue the breakout move but gave the gains
back and closed flat with a doji. Still solid but need
to see it maybe test back toward 24.50 then try the
move again.
ARIA 11/01 A Wedge 7.28 -0.2 7.56 8.98 750K 694K 6.96
Current.
ARIA 09/11 Test BO 7.28 -0.2 5.08 6.28 750K 600K 6.61
Current.
ASL 10/21 Cup hdl 11.12 +0.14 11.62 14.22 632K 1.3M 10.81
Buy Not Issued.
ASML 10/27 Rv H&S 17.91 -0.46 16.78 19.55 3.2M 6.1M 15.78
Current.
BRCM 10/04 Cup hdl 33.72 +0.06 29.91 35.88 6.7M 20M 31.22
Current.
BRLI 10/20 Cup hdl 17.84 +0.72 13.45 16.22 164K 212K 14.96
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 28.03 +0.13 12.83 15.51 566K 225K 25.92
Current.
CKSW 10/25 Test BO 3.22 +0.08 3.08 4.05 495K 300K 2.81
Buy Not Issued.
CORI 10/27 Test BO 6.59 -0.13 6.25 7.85 490K 550K 6.08
Current.
CRA 10/28 Cup hdl 13.32 -0.27 13.62 16.35 499K 747K 12.58
Buy Not Issued.
CY 09/22 FlyPlat 22.74 +0.29 19.75 23.65 3.4M 3.8M 20.68
Current.
DGII 10/08 Test BO 9.65 +0.17 8.75 10.62 168K 167K 9.05
Current.
EFII 09/15 FlyPlat 27.33 -0.41 24.25 29.15 471K 677K 26.33
Current.
EGHT 10/30 Cup 2.38 -0.08 2.15 2.91 761K 823K 1.97
Current.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 5.85 +0.31 5.07 6.35 629K 264K 4.96
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 13.49 +0.02 11.24 13.38 157K 350K 12.18
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 13.49 +0.02 9.33 11.12 157K 400K 12.18
Current.
EVCI 10/20 Cup hdl 4.55 -0.22 3.4 4.38 117K 125K 3.98
Current.
FALC 10/30 Cup hdl 8.04 +0.38 8.04 9.65 335K 230K 7.37
Current.
FCFS 10/27 A Wedge 25.46 -0.24 25.6 30.62 127K 250K 24.31
Current.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.2 +0.19 1.86 2.42 971K 300K 1.77
Current.
GISX 10/25 Cup hdl 28.91 -0.2 27.88 33.32 236K 302K 27.72
Current.
IDTI 10/29 Rv H&S 16.38 +0.03 16.45 19.75 1.7M 3.3M 15.18
Current.
IDXC 11/01 A Wedge 25.45 +0.13 26.78 32 547K 225K 24.64
Current.
IFLO 09/22 Test BO 14.7 +0.57 11.29 13.55 150K 375K 13.36
Current.
IFLO 09/09 Flat 14.7 +0.57 9.62 11.52 150K 426K 13.36
Current.
ILXO 10/28 Dbl btm 21.86 +0.88 21.42 25.75 515K 692K 19.72
Buy Not Issued.
INGP 11/01 Cup hdl 6.21 -0.05 6.36 7.92 553K 903K 5.91
Buy Not Issued.
KOSP 10/29 Cup 44.2 +4.2 40.58 48.68 2.6M 727K 37.48
Buy Not Issued. Raised its 2004 revenue estimates and gapped sharply
higher. Did not want to chase it on the gap and will
see if it comes back to test the breakout near 42.50.
LENS 10/29 A Wedge 13.9 +1.09 13.17 15.78 922K 750K 12.18
Current.
MANU 10/11 Test BO 7.45 -0.05 6.77 8.15 1.1M 1.4M 6.43
Current.
MCHP 10/21 Rv H&S 33.84 +0.05 30.5 34.75 3.6M 4M 31
Current.
MER 10/06 Flat 59.82 +0.07 58.6 67.25 4.4M 6.5M 57.22
Current.
MKTY 10/30 A Wedge 6.61 +0.1 6.72 8.08 133K 200K 6.21
Buy Not Issued.
NEOF 11/03 A Wedge 16.13 -0.16 16.58 19.95 64K 151K 15.42
Buy Not Hit.
NUFO 09/29 Cup hdl 5.19 -0.01 4.82 5.95 499K 1.2M 4.98
Current.
NXG 10/15 Cup 2.15 +0.12 1.89 2.48 934K 684K 1.92
Current.
PBY 10/23 Cup hdl 19.44 +0.03 19 22.88 199K 932K 18.62
Current.
PLXS 11/03 DB hdl 18.37 +0.43 19.06 22.75 845K 528K 17.55
Current. Rallied sharply on some strong trade, but gave much
of the move back on us. Still solid, but dont like
the turn off session highs on the breakout attempt.
RBK 09/24 DB hdl 39.47 +0.09 34.46 41.35 634K 1.1M 38.12
RETK 10/06 A Wedge 10.66 +0.56 8.49 10.25 763K 776K 9.72
Current.
RHAT 09/18 Cup hdl 13.58 -1.8 10.03 12.22 14M 2.8M 13.78
Target Hit. Took the rest of the nice gain off the table as RHAT
gapped sharply lower on volume.
SCKT 11/03 Cup hdl 3.75 +0.41 3.61 4.55 2.6M 526K 3.36
Current.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 34.96 -0.26 37.69 45 3.3M 9M 34.85
Current.
SVNT 10/18 Test BO 6 -0.04 6.38 7.98 866K 678K 5.93
Buy Not Hit.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 65.7 +1.27 61.51 73 220K 501K 62.52
Current.
TEO 10/27 Cup hdl 8.18 +0.14 7.26 9 213K 511K 7.24
Current.
TRPH 11/01 A Wedge 5.48 +0.09 5.31 6.62 2M 1.8M 4.85
Current.
TZA 07/31 Cup hdl 8.27 -0.11 7.1 8.72 392K 579K 7.92
Current.
WFII 10/31 Cup hdl 18.39 -0.05 17.24 20.62 3.7M 1M 15.96
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAI 11/01 H&S 16.52 -0.06 16.04 14 1.1M 250K 16.62
Buy Not Issued.
ASCA 11/01 Put 20.73 -0.56 20.92 18.85 172K 185K 22.08
Buy Not Issued.
PIXR 10/14 Put 69.48 -0.03 68.44 65 222K 600K 69.15
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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