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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: CKSW; EVCI; FALC; SCKT; SCMR; TARO
Best Plays:
1) CPHD: Making the breakout move from a nice pattern.
2) NSCN: Excellent handle forming.
3) ADVP: Nice lateral and low volume test.
4) CRA: Nice doji over the 10 day MVA.
5) FCFS: Volume is starting to swell as it tries the breakout.
6) JBL: Still looks ready to make the breakout.
7) PLXS: Still looks ready to make the move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/05/2003
AMXC (AMX Corp.--$5.88; +0.1; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amxc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This week AMXC has been moving laterally in a nice tight range as it forms a handle to its 10 week base. Money flow continues to rise even as AMXC moves laterally; often that rising money flow pulls the price up after it. Accumulation is positive at 3 to 2. Looking for a strong volume break higher to enter.
Volume: 37.203K Avg Volume: 100.454K
BUY POINT: $6.12 Volume=151K Target=$7.94 Stop=$5.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amxc.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
CPHD (Cepheid--$5.90; +0.49; no options): Biological testing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cphd.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. CPHD is making the explosive breakout from a 13 week base sporting outstanding 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow and relative strength making a breakout along with the stock, a good sign that the breakout is solid.
Volume: 1.456M Avg Volume: 225K
BUY POINT: $6.03 Volume=338K Target=$7.38 Stop=$5.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chains)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cphd.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
NSCN (Netscreen Technologies--$26.54; +0.4; optionable): Netscreen Technologies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nscn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. NSCN is pulling back on very low, below average volume as it forms a nice, orderly handle to its 16 week base showing excellent 5 to 1 accumulation. It shot higher last Thursday on great earnings and upgrades that followed. Very nice pullback and looking for a strong volume move back up to signal the breakout.
Volume: 1.055M Avg Volume: 1.924M
BUY POINT: $27.12 Volume=2.9M Target=$32.55 Stop=$25.22
POSITION: QKN CE - Mar. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nscn.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$46.59; -0.73; optionable): Telecom wireless and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QCOM has come back to fully test the breakout from a 6 week flat base sporting 3 to 0 accumulation. The stock broke out of the pattern a week back, rallied to 48. This week it came back to test the breakout, tapping the 18 day MVA (45.84) on the Wednesday low (also the high on the left side of the base). Wednesday after the close it announced earnings that were not bad. It jumped, sold back, and then rallied after hours. This may be the news that sends it higher in a continuation of the breakout.
Volume: 13.567M Avg Volume: 9.941M
BUY POINT: $47.75 Volume=14M Target=$57.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAO DW - Apr. $47.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/25/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$51.61; -0.09; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a nice break higher last week, ADVP is moving laterally this week in a very tight range on very, very low below average volume. Wednesday it tapped the 10 day MVA (50.57) on the low and rebounded. Continued strong money flow and relative strength. Volume edged higher Wednesday on the rebound. May be ready to continue the move.
Volume: 1.219M Avg Volume: 2.037M
BUY POINT: New: $52.25 (orig. $49.59) Volume=3.1M Target=$59.38 Stop=$49.44
POSITION: QVC DJ - Mar. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/advp.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
CRA (Applera--$13.17; -0.15; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Testing the breakout. A solid breakout last week as CRA moved out of its 5 month base on a strong volume surge (great 8 to 3 accumulation). It has come back to test the move on lower volume, tapping at the 18 day MVA (12.75) on the Thursday low and rebounding to show a doji over the 10 day MVA. this is usually a signal that the test has been completed and it is ready for the next move higher in the breakout. Outstanding money flow and a relative strenght breakout.
Volume: 370.8K Avg Volume: 509.681K
BUY POINT: $13.62 Volume=747K Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.58
POSITION: CRA CV - Mar. $12.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cra.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
FCFS (First Cash Financial--$25.81; +0.35; no options): Pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcfs.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Testing the breakout. FCFS is still working laterally after the breakout, moving in a flat range over the 10 day MVA (24.98). Typically when the 10 day MVA reaches the stock in these patterns that is the catalyst for the next move higher. Wednesday FCFS was straining at the bit to make the next move, rallying over 26 on the high (26.46) but fading back. Volume was stronger, moving back to average. It is showing all the signs that it is ready to make the next move to continue the breakout.
Volume: 174.468K Avg Volume: 149.272K
BUY POINT: New: $26.12 (orig. $25.60) Volume=250K Target=$30.62 Stop=$24.31
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fcfs.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
INGP (Instinet Group--$6.12; -0.09; optionable): Electronic trading service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ingp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. INGP is testing the breakout from its 15 week cup base, pulling back to the 10 day MVA (6.01) on very light volume. 6 also marks price support, so we anticipate INGP will turn here back up here, but want to see strong volume as it does. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in its base, and money flow remains strong.
Volume: 320.996K Avg Volume: 630.545K
BUY POINT: $6.36 Volume=903K Target=$7.92 Stop=$5.91
POSITION: UAU BA - Feb. $5c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ingp.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
JBL (Jabil Circuit--$30.12; +0.01; optionable): Contract manufacturer: Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped down on the Wednesday open but then recovered to close flat on the session. It continues in the breakout move from its 9 week base showing positive 2 to 1 accumulation. Again the stock used the 50 day MVA (27.46) as it formed the base, a very good indication that there is support for the stock as the buyers hold it over that level. Still looks solid. Money flow is shooting higher and relative strength broke out on the move.
Volume: 2.728M Avg Volume: 1.464M
BUY POINT: $30.38 Volume=2.2M Target=$36.45 Stop=$28.88
POSITION: JBL CF - Mar. $30c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbl.html
Play Date: 10/06/2003
MER (Merrill Lynch--$59.07; -0.59; optionable): National investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MER rallied off the 50 day MVA (56.10) two weeks back, breaking over the October high (59.20) but unable to rally a lot of volume. It peaked at 60. It is coming back to test the move, tapping at the 10 day MVA (58.52) on the intraday lows and rebounding. Looking for it to make a higher low here and break higher on volume.
Volume: 4.745M Avg Volume: 4.931M
BUY POINT: New: $60.12 (orig. $58.60) Volume=6.5M Target=$67.25 Stop=$57.22
POSITION: MER AK - Jan. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mer.html
Play Date: 10/30/2003
MKTY (Mechanical Technology--$6.58; -0.03; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkty.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Big break higher last Thursday on volume, and has since moved laterally over the 10 day MVA (6.35). After lower, below average volume to start the week, trade jumped above average Wednesday as it tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (6.39) and bounced back. That action indicates it is ready to make the next move. Strong pattern showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation. This base follows a 3.5 month flat base that yielded a huge late September breakout. Looks ready to make the next move.
Volume: 207.895K Avg Volume: 127.954K
BUY POINT: $6.72 Volume=200K Target=$8.08 Stop=$6.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mkty.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
NEOF (Neoforma--$16.21; +0.08; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neof.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Forming a handle to the 9 week base, tapping the 18 day MVA on the low (15.47) and rebounding for a gain. Volume was still very low, but that is what you want to see in a handle. Looking for a strong volume breakout from a good pattern in a stock that can run hard. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base, strong money flow.
Volume: 34.257K Avg Volume: 99.636K
BUY POINT: $16.58 Volume=151K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.42
POSITION: QZX DC - Apr. $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neof.html
Play Date: 09/29/2003
NUFO (New Focus--$5.17; -0.02; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nufo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still a very nice and orderly test of the breakout, holding the 10 day MVA on the close on continued very low volume. Being patient here and waiting for NUFO to make the next move higher on strong trade. Money flow continues to rise as the price moves laterally, and just waiting for it to follow.
Volume: 270.386K Avg Volume: 873.681K
BUY POINT: New: $5.32 (orig. $4.82) Volume=1.2M Target=New positions: $6.38; orig. positions $5.95 Stop=$4.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nufo.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
PLXS (Plexus--$18.59; +0.22; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plxs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried the breakout Tuesday on a strong volume surge, but gave back a big chunk of the move. Was up again Wednesday though volume backed off. Very nice 7 week base with solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Relative strength is breaking out, money flow is strong. Want to see another strong volume move.
Volume: 379.938K Avg Volume: 362.227K
BUY POINT: New: $18.75 (orig. $18.44) Volume=528K Target=$22.15 Stop=$17.15
POSITION: QUA CW - Mar. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plxs.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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