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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Thursday: VARI; BSX; DIOD; EMBT; GGP; KEI; MIPS
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 11/06/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$129.33; +0.83; optionable): High end auto electronics. Splits 2:1 on a yet to be announced day.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. A dynamo, HAR is working off its last 6 day, $20 jaunt. It is now moving laterally in a very tight, flat pattern as it prepares for the next move. It tapped the 10 day MVA (126.51) on the low and rebounded for a modest gain on continued below average volume. When it moves it moves rapidly, and on a volume jump over 130 on volume.
Volume: 216.2K Avg Volume: 297.59K
BUY POINT: $130.55 Volume=400K Target=$140.75 Stop=$126.55
POSITION: HAR AF - Jan. $130c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
APA (Apache--$70; +0.7; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on a yet to be announced date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. After peaking at 23 in early October APA has pulled back to test the 50 day MVA (68.85) where there is also price support. It bounced on strong volume Wednesday and moved again on above average volume Thursday. Looks ready to make a run back up to the recent high. We are going for a bit more than that, but we are playing options only on this one.
Volume: 1.478M Avg Volume: 1.366M
BUY POINT: $70.35 Volume=1.8M Target=$75.45 Stop=$69.22
POSITION: APA AN - Jan. $70c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apa.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/06/2003
CMNT (Computer Network Tech--$10.55; +0.44; optionable): PC Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmnt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CSCO's earnings were solid and CMNT has formed a very nice little 8 week base sporting outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation. It formed the base over the 50 day MVA (9.26), a level where institutions step in and buy a stock. With the outstanding accumulation in the base it is apparent there has been a lot of buying. Volume has jumped as it moved for the breakout, and relative strength is ready to make the breakout as well, an indication of, well, strength. Strong money flow pointing higher as well.
Volume: 244.444K Avg Volume: 644.727K
BUY POINT: $10.75 Volume=800K Target=$13.55 Stop=$9.99
POSITION: QDO DB - Apr. $10c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmnt.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
PSSI (PSS World Medical--$10.1; +0.34; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pssi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PSSI is ready to maket the breakout from a sweet little 7 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA (9.09). That is a very good point for a stock to use as support as it is where institutions typically step in to make purchases. Accumulation in the short base is an excellent 4 to 1, indicating that the big money is indeed accumulating the stock. Volume has surged the past week as it readies for the breakout. Money flow is moving up ahead of price as the stocks has slid laterally along 10. Relative strength is also moving for the breakout. Solid all around.
Volume: 857.114K Avg Volume: 519.545K
BUY POINT: $10.26 Volume=779K Target=$12.95 Stop=$9.55
POSITION: PYQ BB - Jan. $10c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pssi.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/30/2003
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$19.18; -0.01; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong rally off the 50 day MVA (18.30), AVO has fallen back to test the break higher, dopping to the 18 day MVA (18.95). Volume backed off on that move and then rallied Thursday as it showed a doji on that support level. This is typically where a stock will turn back up after a test, and it is giving us another good entry point on this stock that broke out of its 3.5 month base to end October.
Volume: 218.5K Avg Volume: 243.363K
BUY POINT: $19.72 Volume=359K Target=$23.68 Stop=$18.34
POSITION: AVO DD - Apr. $20c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avo.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Many stocks making moves without announcing splits as companies are still a bit gun-shy. Still getting strong moves from these leaders, and that is why we love split-caliber stocks. They also tend to announce after earnings as JAH did this evening. At this juncture many have rallied higher out of buy position, but there are still some that look ready to move. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong.
ACV: No split on 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. Still running higher.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03 but moving well with the tremendous earnings report.
AVP: No split on 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BCR: No split on 10-15-03 after the close but moving very well.
CEDC: Forecast 11-11-03.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03. No announcement 11-4; looking to December earnings.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
DLTR: Forecast 11-25-03 after the close.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03.
FRED: Forecast 11-20-03.
LM: No split on 10-22 with earnings. Still in a strong uptrend.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
ORLY: No split announced10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03. A leader setting up for the next move.
UOPX: Researching the next date. Tested the 50 day MVA and gave a good entry point.
VRTS: No split announced on 10-22-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/06/2003
FDX (Federal Express--$77.16; +1.19; optionable): When it positively has to be there. Forecast to announce a split 12-17-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Two splits in the past, one 1996 at $75 and one in 1999 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Breakout. Ever since FDX announced it was going to raise its rates it has performed well. The reason is the economy continues to improve, and it bore out that FDX was right with its business call. We love stocks that are leaders, in good uptrends, and have savvy management. FDX just proved that. It has been on a good run and is stepping up the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA) after the breakout from a 4 month flat base. It just made its second test of the 10 day MVA (74.96) on this run, jumping off that level Thursday. Volume was not where we wanted it, still coming in below average. Stocks can make 4 to 5 bounces up off the short term MVA, and we are looking at picking up shares on a continued bounce from here if it can get some more volume.
Volume: 1.066M Avg Volume: 1.468M
BUY POINT: $77.62 Volume=1.8M Target=$90 Stop=$74.88
POSITION: FDX AO - Jan. $75c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$60.88; +1.44; optionable): Chip equipment. Still researching to pinpoint the exact date, but looks ready for a bigger move higher.
BACKGROUND: Split 2:1 in January 2001 at the height of the tech boom. It is now coming back and growing earnings, heading for that $70 area that has become the primary split range.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. KLAC is making a series of higher lows near the 50 day MVA (56.32) with a constant top near 60. Accumulation in this 10 week base is 2 to 1 and relative strength is ready to make a breakout. Indeed, Thursday KLAC moved through 60 on the first above average volume session in two weeks. It looks ready to make a move and we want to start taking positions on a further volume rise from here.
Volume: 9.344M Avg Volume: 8.575M
BUY POINT: $61.06 Volume=12M Target=$73 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: KCQ AL - Jan. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/klac.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2003
CEDC (Central European District--$37.92; -0.18; no options): Imports and distributes alcoholic beverages, cigars, and other vices in Poland. Forecast to announce a split on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has snot confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-7-03 at a stock price of $30.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CEDC broke out in late September and rallied hard up to 38 where it peaked and came back to test the move. It is currently moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (37.10) in a very tight range on low, below average volume. It is gathering itself for the next bounce higher. It is preparing to make its next break. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the base with excellent money flow. A leader we are looking to catch on the move back up.
Volume: 82.122K Avg Volume: 213.5K
BUY POINT: New: 38.55 (orig. $34.25) Volume=282K Target=$40.88 Stop=$35.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cedc.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$43.95; +0.2; optionable): Medical Instruments. No split announced on 11-4, so looking at 12-11-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company will not confirm the date for the board meeting, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-5-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $52.94. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-03 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Double bottom. COO continues to move laterally over the 10 day MVA (43.21) in a very tight range on low, below average volume. A beautiful handle forming in the nice 9 week base sporting outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation. Super buying and solid money flow.
Volume: 141.7K Avg Volume: 388K
BUY POINT: $44.06 Volume=550K Target=$50.88 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: COO BI - Feb. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
CPWM (Cost Plus World Market--$43.75; +0.55; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-20-99 at a stock price of $47.The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpwm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After surging higher two weeks back, CPWM has come back to test the 18 day MVA (42.78). Volume has been up and down, but then when it hit the 18 day Thursday volume shot up as it reversed off of that level for a gain. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. Looking for a jump up from here on continued strong volume.
Volume: 419.98K Avg Volume: 230.59K
BUY POINT: new: $44.25 (orig. $43.65) Volume=337K Target=$51.95 Stop=$43.78
POSITION: CUS BH - Feb. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cpwm.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$26.75; -0.15; optionable): Watches, shoes, fashion accessories. Forecast to announce a split on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.70. the annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues to form the handle to its 10 week double bottom with handle base, holding over the 50 day MVA (26.27) after tapping it on the low and rebounding to hold the 10 day on the close. Outstanding money flow and ready to make the breakout. Again, we are looking for the stock to follow the money flow higher and deliver the breakout.
Volume: 85.546K Avg Volume: 245.227K
BUY POINT: $27.32 Volume=369K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.25
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
MIK (Michaels--$47.85; 0; optionable): Arts and craft stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-31-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Continues to trade in a narrow range right at 48, but got a bit wilder Thursday as it reached down to the 18 day MVA (46.86) on the low and rebounding on a shot of above average volume. This short pattern is actually part of a 14 month reverse head and shoulders, another accumulation pattern. Just being patient and waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 806K Avg Volume: 584.954K
BUY POINT: $48.65 Volume=873K Target=$58.38 Stop=$47.21
POSITION: MIK CT - Mar. $47.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$71.1; +0.1; optionable): Online education. No split with October earnings. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. UOPX is in a very lazy drift back to test support at 70 and the 10 day MVA (70.10) after a strong bounce up off the 50 day MVA (67.22). It tapped that level and rebounded. This one can run like the wind, and it is preparing for the next move here. It may come back another day, but if the jobs report is strong, we doubt it will.
Volume: 108.903K Avg Volume: 243.454K
BUY POINT: New: $72.35 (orig. $71.12) Volume=315K Target=$84 Stop=$68.72
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/04/2003
CFC (Countrywide Financial--$105.21; -0.82; optionable): Mortgages. Splits 4:3 on 12-18-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Thursday CFC showed a very tight doji right on the 10 day MVA (103.88) as volume edges a bit higher during this three week tight, lateral move. CFC is making a series of big blasts higher in its run up out of the September breakout from a 3 month cup with handle base. It tends to move laterally in a tight range as it is doing now and then blasts off. Tight range, low, below average volume on the move. Excellent money flow still moving up ahead of the price as it moves laterally. Getting ready to go again, and just waiting for that tap of the 10 day to send it off again.
Volume: 1.747M Avg Volume: 2.344M
BUY POINT: $105.75 Volume=2.5M Target=$115 Stop=$103
POSITION: CFC AA - Jan. $105c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cfc.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$47.03; -0.22; optionable): Medical labs. Splits 3:2 on 11-4-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA (46.43). Still moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (46.66) in a very tight range after running to $50 and the dropping back last week. ERES has surged this year in a remarkable run from near $10 to $50. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looking for a jump back up from here on stronger trade.
Volume: 476.415K Avg Volume: 722.954K
BUY POINT: $47.64 Volume=1.1M Target=$54.85 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: UDB AB - Jan. $47.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
End part 2 of 3
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