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Begin part 2 of 2
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: EGHT; EGOV; EMBT; NOOF
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/09/2003
ENCY (Encysive Pharma--$7.4; +0.4; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ency.html
STATUS: Double bottom. After breaking from a 9 week base in early September, ENCY rallied to 7 after the nice breakout. It then fell into the current 5 week base, using the 50 day MVA (6.07) as support for the base. That is a sign of solid support as buyers moved in to support the stock at that key level. Accumulation in the short base is 2 to 1 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Thursday and Friday it started up on very strong volume, rallying to the breakout. Relative strength broke out as well, another sign of the stock's strength. Looks solid as it breaks to a new 52 week high.
Volume: 1.234M Avg Volume: 348.272K
BUY POINT: $7.48 Volume=522K Target=$9.35 Stop=$6.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ency.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
MDS (Midas--$13.9; +0.4; no options): Auto parts (mufflers and such)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mds.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Yes, about as sexy as a stovepipe, but my goodness accumulation is an outstanding 6 to 1 accumulation and it is showing solid volume as it moves up toward a breakout from its 13 week base. We have passed over a few other stocks that lacked sex appeal only to see them tack on 50% in 2 to 3 weeks. Not only is accumulation solid, money flow is surging up ahead of the price. It formed the base right around the 50 day MVA (13.04). A very strong, tight pattern showing excellent accumulation as it moves toward the breakout. It can move quickly when it makes a breakout as well, moving 50% in a month.
Volume: 323.1K Avg Volume: 79.318K
BUY POINT: $14.08 Volume=120K Target=$17 Stop=$13.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mds.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
MVSN (Macrovision--$22.58; +0.03; optionable): Movie production and theaters
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MVSN is forming a very nice handle to its 13 week base after a nice $12 run. It definitely needed the breather this base provides. The base works out the short term sellers and then leaves just those committed to the stock. With accumulation at an excellent 8 to 1, there were more buyers than sellers during the base, indicating the big money was moving in quietly and purchasing the stock. This move lower in the handle to the 18 day MVA (21.87) on low, below average volume shakes out the last sellers and clears the way for the breakout and the next run higher.
Volume: 409.894K Avg Volume: 593.909K
BUY POINT: $23.08 Volume=891K Target=$27.69 Stop=$21.99
POSITION: MVU DX - Apr. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mvsn.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
PLUM (Plumtree Software--$5.47; -0.03; no options): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plum.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. PLUM is working through a 4 week base that is working up the 18 day MVA (5.29) while tapping at a constant top at 5.75. The highe and higher lows moving toward the top at 5.75 builds pressure for the breakout. With solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern, there is plenty of buying ongoing. This is a base on base pattern, coming after the breakout from a 14 week cup with handle base, is one of our favorite combination patterns. That prior base showed excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Outstanding money flow and relative strength ready to deliver the next breakout with the stock. Volume started to edge higher Thursday and Friday, and that is often an indication that the stock is reay to try a move.
Volume: 221.093K Avg Volume: 153.045K
BUY POINT: $5.78 Volume=230K Target=$7.52 Stop=$5.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/plum.html
Continuing plays that still look good: CORI; OPSW; BRKS; CATS; GIGM; SINA
CONTINUING PLAY LIST: This week the summary table breaks out the upside and downside plays into different sections labeled accordingly.
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 63.59 -3.14 523.15 545 454K 650K 518.55
Current. Stalled out at the early October high and finished
lower, but on very low, below average trade.
ALGN 11/03 Test BO 17.87 +0.14 17.45 20.85 654K 616K 16.44
Current. Solid move for the week, & we will let it continue
to move up the 10 day MVA as long as it will.
AMSWA 10/23 Test BO 6.48 -0.13 6.12 7.45 129K 150K 6.39
Current. Making a 10 day MVA test after a strong breakout. Normal
action, but this is where it needs to make the next
bounce.
AV 09/25 Flat 13.22 0 11.38 13.65 6.6M 4.4M 12.92
Current. Big gap lower Friday but a nice recovery over the short
term MVA. Will let it move if it will.
AVO 10/30 Cup hdl 18.75 -0.43 19.72 23.68 814K 359K 18.34
Buy Not Issued. Nice consolidation attempt caved in. Dropping it.
BBA 10/29 Test BO 12.85 -0.19 13.76 16.45 322K 749K 12.76
Current. Retail numbers Thursday sent it back down from a solid
move. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA. If it does we
will let it bounce, but if it does not show life we
will cut it and look elsewhere near term.
BRKS 10/29 Cup 26.47 -0.75 27 32.38 782K 1.4M 25.55
Current. Moving laterally over the 10 day, but looks very good
as it sets up for the next leg higher.
BRLI 10/20 Cup hdl 16.75 -0.23 13.45 16.22 164K 212K 16.12
Current. Testing back to the 10 day MVA after a strong surge
allowed us to book some gain. Want to see the rebound
from this level.
CASY 11/06 Rv H&S 16.15 +0.05 16.26 20 130K 200K 15.35
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher but on lower volume so stayed away Friday
and will see if it tests 16 again and then shows some
stronger trade.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 7.48 +0.01 7.58 9.12 62K 145K 7.05
Buy Not Issued. Still in the pattern, just taking its time as it works
laterally over the 10 day MVA and below 7.50.
CELL 10/02 Test 18 26.89 +0.32 23.25 28 969K 1M 26.42
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 26.89 +0.32 12.83 15.51 969K 225K 25.92
Current. Hammer doji right on the 18 day MVA indicates the pullback
could be over. A logical place for it to turn back up.
CKSW 10/25 Test BO 3.5 -0.02 3.61 4.58 295K 300K 3.22
Current. Solid break higher last week then held the gains at
the end of the week as it moved laterally.
CORI 10/27 Test BO 6.97 +0.17 6.25 7.85 2.3M 550K 6.08
Current. Tried to make the next move Friday, a breakout from
a short ascending triangle, but gave it back. Still
looks ready.
CYMI 11/06 DB hdl 48.73 +0.7 49.39 59.22 1.9M 2M 46.48
Current. Solid volume as it moved up off the 10 day. Not breakaway,
but a good volume start after the test.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 7.45 +0.1 4.32 5.38 306K 315K 6.99
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA but struggling near 7.50.
DJO 09/11 Cup 21 -0.3 14 16.45 48K 100K 19.22
Current. Excellent move last week on volume. Will need a test,
but letting the remaining positions run for us.
DKS 10/13 Cup 47.16 -0.22 44.68 55.38 179K 603K 46.44
Current. Working laterally over the 10 day MVA on low volume.
Nice move, but needs to make the break over 47.50 to
start the next leg.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 5.82 +0.12 4.3 5.22 344K 300K 5.22
Current. Strong move higher to end the week and we took some
gain and let some run. After moving up the 10 day it
made a more ballistic move. Always cautious about those
moves and have moved up the stop on remaining positions.
EGHT 10/30 Cup 3.15 +0.69 2.15 2.91 3.9M 823K 2.72
Target Hit. What a surge on Friday as volume shot to an extreme
level. Took some gain, let half run.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 6.97 +0.64 5.07 6.35 1.9M 264K 6.44
Current.
EGOV 09/20 Cup hdl 6.97 +0.64 4.8 5.68 1.9M 264K 6.44
Current. Exploded higher on outstanding volume. What a move
underway.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 14.25 +0.34 11.24 13.38 1.7M 350K 13.12
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 14.25 +0.34 9.33 11.12 1.7M 400K 13.12
Current. An explosive volume move higher, jumping off of the
10 day MVA. Nice.
ENCY 11/09 Dbl btm 7.4 +0.4 7.48 9.35 1.2M 522K 6.96
Buy Not Hit.
EVCI 10/20 Cup hdl 4.78 -0.37 3.4 4.38 88K 125K 4.44
Current. Nice rally up the 10 day MVA, then gave back a chunk
Friday but on very light volume.
FRED 10/30 A Wedge 36.09 -0.4 38.88 46.55 505K 526K 36.16
Buy Not Issued.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.07 +0.04 1.86 2.42 659K 300K 1.89
Current. Big gap lower, but then a furious rally to close positive.
GEMS 10/22 Test BO 3.27 -0.08 2.87 3.72 722K 487K 3.08
Current. Nice surge in the early week being tested late.
GIGM 10/01 Cup hdl 3.03 +0.03 3.12 4.05 1.6M 2.7M 2.88
Current. Doji right on the 18 day MVA. This is where it needs
to make its bounce yet again.
GNSC 10/09 Test BO 2.95 -0.05 2.65 3.47 121K 175K 2.82
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA. needs to make its move here.
IFLO 09/22 Test BO 15.15 +0.18 11.29 13.55 166K 375K 14.12
Current. Continuing the very nice move up the 10 day MVA.
IFLO 09/09 Flat 15.15 +0.18 9.62 11.52 166K 426K 14.12
Current.
ILXO 10/28 Dbl btm 21.43 -0.06 22.42 26.82 226K 692K 20.94
Buy Not Issued. Forming a nice handle here to its base, and if it can
provide the breakout on volume it will be a buy.
JNPR 11/01 A Wedge 18.7 -0.3 18.94 22.42 6.2M 15M 17.79
Current.
KEI 11/05 Cup hdl 18.05 -0.35 18.37 22.05 88K 150K 17.45
Current. Powerful move last week took a breather Friday.
LENS 10/29 A Wedge 10.53 +0.53 13.17 15.78 1.8M 750K 12.18
Current. Managed to start a rebound on some decent volume.
Again, looking for a move up near 11.50 at the 50 day
and then see what happens there.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 85 +0.57 58.5 67.78 690K 610K 82.92
Current. Nice lateral move below 85 and above the 10 day MVA
as it consolidates for the next move higher, hanging
onto its gains as it does.
LOUD 10/23 Flat 2.09 -0.52 2.75 3.78 7.2M 3.6M 2.48
Exited. Gapped below the 50 day MVA on strong volume and sold,
not trying to bounce.
MDS 11/09 Cup 13.9 +0.4 14.08 17 323K 120K 13.36
Buy Not Hit.
MVSN 11/09 Cup hdl 22.58 +0.03 23.08 27.69 410K 891K 21.99
Buy Not Hit.
NEXM 10/14 Cup hdl 4.91 -0.07 5.03 6.28 129K 292K 4.84
Current. Struggling to hold the 18 day MVA. Moved up the stop
and ready to bail.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 6.28 +0.78 5.27 6.32 2.7M 319K 5.62
Target Hit. Took some nice gain as it raced higher again.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 6.28 +0.78 4.78 6.21 2.7M 280K 5.62
Target Hit.
NSCN 11/05 DB hdl 25.76 -0.5 27.12 32.55 1.4M 2.9M 25.22
Buy Not Issued. Testing the 10 day MVA, holding over the hump in the
middle of the pattern as it forms a nice handle.
NVLS 10/28 Test 50 43.7 -1.33 39.84 47.75 7.3M 9.5M 42.38
Current. Excellent move last week but reversed Friday on some
rising volume. Still solid, but dont want it to get
away from us.
NXG 10/15 Cup 1.97 +0.06 1.89 2.48 1.4M 684K 1.92
Current. Gapped sharply lower, sold further, and then rallied
furiously on rising volume to retake the 18 day on
teh close.
NXTL 10/02 Cup hdl 24.1 +0.04 20.76 24.95 11M 27M 23.12
Current. Worked laterally over the 10 day MVA all week on very
low trade. Consolidating the nice move higher and
holding up well.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 24.1 +0.04 20.64 24.75 11M 24M 23.12
Current.
ONNN 10/28 Test 50 4.59 +0.16 4.65 5.88 1.3M 1.7M 4.42
Current. Still working laterally over the 50 day MVA after the
break higher to end October. Good action Friday as
it started up on volume that edged higher in a down market.
OPSW 10/28 A Wedge 8.96 +0.26 8.95 10.95 507K 1M 8.32
Current. Fell back to the 10 day after trying to break higher,
but still in solid shape, moving up off of that level
Friday as it shows it has continued life. Nice pattern.
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 3.65 -0.2 2.55 3.24 172K 450K 3.42
Current. Strong surge last wee though gave some of the move
back on Friday though volume backed off to well below
average.
PKI 10/09 DB hdl 17.8 -0.27 18.12 21.65 488K 1.1M 17.42
Buy Not Issued. Coming back for the test of the break higher, holding
over the 18 day MVA on low volume. A move back over
18 is teh buy point.
PLUM 11/09 A Wedge 5.47 -0.03 5.78 7.52 221K 230K 5.38
Buy Not Hit.
PLXS 11/03 DB hdl 19.52 +0.23 19.06 22.75 454K 528K 18.23
Current. Nice breakout and run last week, continuing the momentum
Friday.
PLXT 11/03 A Wedge 10.1 -0.25 8.81 10.96 229K 222K 8.94
Current. Excellent breakout and run though it stalled some Friday
and fell on lower volume.
PSSI 11/06 Cup hdl 9.94 -0.15 10.26 12.95 590K 779K 9.55
Buy Not Hit. Still a solid pattern as it approached the breakout
point but could not quite make the move.
PUMA 10/27 A Wedge 7.29 -0.03 7.34 9.06 749K 1.4M 6.97
Current. Moving laterally the 10 day after a breakout to start
the week. Still in good shape, setting up the next move.
QLGC 10/14 Rv H&S 57.49 -0.21 52.88 63.38 3.8M 7M 56.08
Current. Not much headway last week, but it did post a gain
on some choppy trade. Still continuing the nice uptrend
along the 10 day MVA.
REMC 11/06 Dbl btm 12.82 +0.15 12.88 15.75 785K 800K 11.92
Buy Not Issued. Rallied early but we were looking ofr an entry and
the stock kept coming back. So we left it for this
week to see if it can make a stronger break.
RETK 10/06 A Wedge 11.07 -0.05 8.49 10.25 742K 776K 10.37
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA last week with a solid
move. Took a breather Friday on lower volume.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 6.46 +0.09 6.24 7.85 108K 146K 6.22
Current. Excellent week with the breakout on strong volume and
run through Friday.
SCMR 11/04 A Wedge 6.04 +0.19 5.39 6.72 5.8M 3M 5.49
Current. Super move on the CSCO earnings and just kept on running
through Friday.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 38.68 +0.46 41.55 50 12M 15M 39.42
Current.
SINA 09/09 Cup 38.68 +0.46 36.15 41 12M 12M 37.55
Current. Fell back to the 50 day MVA, but showed a nice tight
doji on that level Friday as volume shot higher. Looks
ready to mve the next move up.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 38.68 +0.46 32.2 38.25 12M 10M 37.55
Current.
SOFO 10/02 Test BO 2.46 -0.07 2.05 2.74 417K 395K 2.28
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA, but again unable to
get over 2.71 yet again on the Friday high. Fell well
off that level to close but still in decent shape.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 34.5 +1.21 37.69 45 4M 9M 34.85
Current. Rallied back up to the 50 day MVA. Needs to break
back over 35.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 67.35 -0.15 61.51 73 126K 501K 65.32
Current. Nice week as it still worked higher up the 10 day MVA.
TELM 09/30 Test BO 1.74 -0.02 1.51 2.04 7.7M 7M 1.61
Current. Great move Thursday, but wild up and down action Friday
with a test of the 50 day on the low and a furious
rebound on rising volume.
TRPH 11/01 A Wedge 5.24 +0.14 5.31 6.62 1M 1.8M 4.85
Current. Unable to hold the breakout move though it did find
support at the 10 day MVA. Going to have to make the
move over 5.50 on rising trade this week.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 42.27 -0.24 23.42 27.62 330K 603K 40.94
Current. Getting a bit choppy at 44 & looks ready to test the
18 day MVA.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.27 -0.24 21.88 26 330K 603K 40.94
Current.
TVIA 11/04 Cup hdl 2.25 +0.03 2.38 3.09 100K 219K 2.18
Buy Not Issued. Tried the breakout last week but could not hold it
on several tries. Very volatile as it tries the beak
higher, not the best sign that the sellers are cleared
out and thus allowing the stock to run when it breaks out.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 30.92 +0.13 27.65 33.18 12M 18M 29.48
Current. Continues its excellent run up the 10 day MVA. Just
letting it run.
UMC 11/05 A Wedge 5.62 +0.03 5.72 7.45 3.5M 6.5M 5.32
Buy Not Hit. Tried the breakout Friday with a big gap higher, but
volume was not there and it gave the move back.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 65.84 -0.41 64.5 74.25 306K 1.1M 64.12
Current. After the big move it is working laterally on very
low, below average volume.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 34.04 +0.23 32.68 38.68 5.5M 11M 32.94
Current. Excellent break higher Monday and then ran through
the rest of the week.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 65.08 -0.25 51.12 59.55 790K 3M 63.55
Current. Continues its impressive run up the 10 day MVA.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ASCA 11/01 Put 20.61 +0.02 20.27 18.85 175K 185K 21.25
Current. Bounced off 20 late in teh week, but upside volume
was very low & we expect it to resume the move from
here or slightly higher.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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