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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
Economic Calendar
11-13-03
Trade balance, September (8:30): -$40.5B expected, -39.2B August.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 370K expected, 348K prior.
11-14-03
PPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% September.
Core PPI: 0.1% expected, 0.0% September.
Retail sales, October (8:30): 0.1% expected. -0.2% September.
Retail sales ex-auto (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% September.
Industrial production, October (9:15): 0.4% expected, 0.4% September.
Capacity utilization, October (9:15): 74.9% expected, 74.7% September.
Michigan preliminary sentiment, November (9:45): 91.5 expected, 89.6 October.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS:
Q: I'm very perplexed over constant federal releases that there is no inflation in the US marketplace. My personal experiences and those of many of my close friends show a decidedly different picture. Recently I've experienced a 24% increase in my medical insurance premiums and a 16% increase in long term care premiums. My yacht coverage was recently increased 9%. My home security firm increased monthly fees 23%, and my dial-up ISP (which I use as back-up to my cable connection) increased monthly fees 21%. A national brand tea product which we've purchased for years was just increased 22% by our Kroger owned local market. These are whopping increases and mostly by national firms. So I doubt these increases are localized to our geographic area. I can't understand why these are not showing up in the federal figures. They're very real to those of us paying the bills.
A: You are absolutely correct that there are substantial increases in prices in certain areas in the economy, particularly healthcare-related. The coffee price increase is interesting given the glut of coffee on the world market. In any event, there are many areas rising but there are also areas wher prices continue to fall such as computers and other electronics. The government measures prices in the aggregate, meaning the declining prices offset the rising prices, to come up with its average.
The point you bring home, however, is that the prices that impact you on a regular basis are rising while those that impact you irregularly (you don't buy a computer every month) are falling. Jimmy Rogers, a famed investor who started with Warren Buffet, has the same common sense observation you had: prices are rising despite what the government says. This has implications on interest rates if the government is underestimating price rises. It could lead to an upside spike in prices and rates if demand outpaces supply.
We discussed this during the arguments over passing the tax cuts. There had to be enough supply side stimulus to get businesses producing to match the increased demand stimulus triggers. If not you then do get inflationary pressures because businesses cannot produce enough to meet demand. We are seeing some of that now with the low inventories and high sales. Businesses are investing, but they are not cranking out the huge amount of goods yet, and that is not helping pricing at this point. Businesses do not want to miss sales for lack of capacity or inventory, but after the sharp slowdown in 2000 they are reluctant to make the commitments. That is why it is important to maintain stability regarding taxation policy so business can at least know the tax rug will not be yanked out from under them if they commit to more production.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Friday:
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 11/09/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$42.55; -0.7; optionable): Athletic shoes and apparel. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. KSWS blasted higher two weeks back on some solid news regarding earnings, rallying over 44 on that move. It has now come back to test the 18 day MVA (42.32) on lower, below average volume, holding at that level Friday. This point is also price support from the high on the left side of the base. That makes it a very likely place where the stock will hold and start the next move.
Volume: 110.365K Avg Volume: 183.772K
BUY POINT: $43.28 Volume=225K Target=$49.85 Stop=$42.22
POSITION: SWU AH - Jan. $40c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/09/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$51.2; -0.15; optionable): Portable GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GRMN was one of the early leaders out of the October low and made us a lot of money on that run from 20 to 50. It then had to take a serious rest and fell into the current 20 week base that started on news it was not getting a contract to put devices into Chrysler cars. That did not slow earnings, however, and GRMN just reported blowout numbers toward the end of October. That shot the stock higher, forming the rest of the right side of the cup base. It has spent the last week drifting back toward the 10 day MVA (50.20) on low, below average volume, forming the handle that shakes out the last sellers and short term profit takers. Accumulation in the basek is a strong 6 to 3 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating that big money has been quietly accumulating the stock during the base. We are looking for the test to perhaps make it all the way to the 50 day, but we are looking at positions as it starts its rebound. Want to see strong volume. This is a stock that could turn into a split play as it has rallied sharply and after a correction is ready to reach for another new all-time high.
Volume: 289.381K Avg Volume: 460.09K
BUY POINT: $52.62 Volume=690K Target=$60.62 Stop=$48.98
POSITION: GQR DK - Apr. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
KOOL (Thermogenesis--$3.65; +0.05; no options): Micro manufacturing devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kool.html
STATUS: Double bottom. A strong run straight up the 50 day MVA (3.30) out of the October 2002 low, KOOL finally took a break the past two months, forming a 9 week base on low, below average volume. Not a lot of sellers, just profit taking as volume has been light and accumulation in the pattern is a strong 3 to 1. Last week ist started up off support at 3, rallying on stronger volume. It cleared the 'hump' in the double bottom at 3.55 on strong trade. Sometimes this pattern forms a handle, sometimes not. With the strong move through the breakout point we are looking at positions on a further move on more volume.
Volume: 122.804K Avg Volume: 133.681K
BUY POINT: $3.72 Volume=200K Target=$4.85 Stop=$3.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kool.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
MDS (Midas--$13.9; +0.4; no options): Auto parts (mufflers and such)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mds.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Yes, about as sexy as a stovepipe, but my goodness accumulation is an outstanding 6 to 1 accumulation and it is showing solid volume as it moves up toward a breakout from its 13 week base. We have passed over a few other stocks that lacked sex appeal only to see them tack on 50% in 2 to 3 weeks. Not only is accumulation solid, money flow is surging up ahead of the price. It formed the base right around the 50 day MVA (13.04). A very strong, tight pattern showing excellent accumulation as it moves toward the breakout. It can move quickly when it makes a breakout as well, moving 50% in a month.
Volume: 323.1K Avg Volume: 79.318K
BUY POINT: $14.08 Volume=120K Target=$17 Stop=$13.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mds.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 11/06/2003
CMNT (Computer Network Tech--$10.58; +0.03; optionable): PC Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmnt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CMNT tried to make the breakout move Friday, surging to 11.20 on the high as volume ran back to average, but it could not hold the mvoe. It is still solid in the 8 week base sporting outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation. It is in the CSCO-related area of networking, and that area has enjoyed collateral gains based on Cisco's earnings. Strong money flow and relative strength; it is strong across the board. Looking for it to reload and make another breakotu move that sticks.
Volume: 580.687K Avg Volume: 630.09K
BUY POINT: $10.75 Volume=800K Target=$13.55 Stop=$9.99
POSITION: QDO DB - Apr. $10c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmnt.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
PSSI (PSS World Medical--$9.94; -0.15; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pssi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the sweet little 7 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA (9.12). Tried to make the move Friday, but again hit 10.25 and stalled, falling back some on lower volume. Accumulation in the short base is an excellent 4 to 1, indicating that the big money is indeed accumulating the stock. Strong volume all last week as it started toward the breakout, a very good sign of big money activity. Strong indicators across the board, and now all we need is the breakout move on more strong trade.
Volume: 589.697K Avg Volume: 518.818K
BUY POINT: $10.26 Volume=779K Target=$12.95 Stop=$9.55
POSITION: PYQ BB - Jan. $10c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pssi.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$48.04; +1.38; optionable): Telecom wireless and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. The three sessions of strong, above average volume started paying off Friday as QCOM jumped off the 10 day MVA on strong trade. It rallied over 48, but then gave a bit of the move back. Showing very good action in its 6 week flat base sporting 3 to 0 accumulation. Reported great earnings last week, and it looks to still be in a good point to move in on a further rally.
Volume: 13.867M Avg Volume: 10.134M
BUY POINT: $48.12 Volume=14M Target=$57.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAO DW - Apr. $47.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Many stocks making moves without announcing splits as companies are still a bit gun-shy. Still getting strong moves from these leaders, and that is why we love split-caliber stocks. They also tend to announce after earnings as JAH shows. At this juncture many have rallied higher out of buy position, but there are still some that look ready to move. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong.
ACV: No split on 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03 but an excellent breakout.
AVP: No split on 10-28 before the open with earnings.
CEDC: Forecast 11-11-03.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03. No announcement 11-4; looking to December earnings.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
FDX: Forecast 12-17-03.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03.
FRED: Forecast 11-20-03.
KLAC: Still researching the date.
LM: No split on 10-22 with earnings. Still in a strong uptrend.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
ORLY: No split announced10-28-03 after the close.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03.
UOPX: Researching the next date. Tested the 50 day MVA and gave a good entry point.
VRTS: No split announced on 10-22-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/09/2003
HSIC (Henry Schein--$63.59; +0.77; optionable): Medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HSIC has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Breakout. HSIC broke out of an 11 week flat base in late October, a base that formed along the 50 day MVA (58.73). Forming a base at that level is a signal of good strength. Accumulation in the pattern was an excellent 6 to 0. Very strong buying set a good foundation for the breakout and a run higher. Relative strength broke out as well as volume surge during the breakout and the breakout week. After a brief lateral move where it held its gains, it looks as if it is ready to make the next move up from the breakout.
Volume: 454.373K Avg Volume: 329.227K
BUY POINT: $64.02 Volume=494K Target=$73.62 Stop=$61.88
POSITION: HQE DM - Apr. $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsic.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
PIR (Pier 1 Imports--$25.61; -0.24; optionable): Home furnishing stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 12-9-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates, but based upon our research these are the dates.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in June 1998 at a stock price of $25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pir.html
STATUS: Breakout. PIR raised its guidance last week when the retail sales increases were announced, and that news shot it higher in a continued breakout move from a 12 week base formed from July to early October. It gapped higher on the move, then gave back just a fraction Friday on lower trade. We are looking for PIR to come back a bit more toward 25, and it may even fill the gap down to the 10 day MVA at 24. We will let it come back and then move in when we see it making a rebound moveo n volume rising above that on the pullback.
Volume: 1.516M Avg Volume: 1.045M
BUY POINT: Test 24 to 25, then $25.25 on the way back up. Volume=1.6M Target=$30.35 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: PIR CE - Mar. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pir.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays: Not a lot of change from Thursday as the plays at a buy point held more or less steady while those already making a move are not in a new buy point. Great moves from MIK started that new play off on great footing.
Play Date: 10/25/2003
CEDC (Central European District--$37.5; -0.42; no options): Imports and distributes alcoholic beverages, cigars, and other vices in Poland. Forecast to announce a split on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has snot confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-7-03 at a stock price of $30.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continues to move laterally over the 10 day MVA (37.17) on below average volume as it consolidates the breakout, holding its gains as it does. That is a sign of a strong breakout. CEDC broke out in late September and rallied hard up to 38 where it peaked and came back to test the move. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the base with excellent money flow. A leader we are looking to catch on the move back up.
Volume: 150.266K Avg Volume: 211.863K
BUY POINT: New: 38.55 (orig. $34.25) Volume=282K Target=$40.88 Stop=$35.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cedc.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$43.55; -0.4; optionable): Medical Instruments. Forecast to announce on 12-11-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company will not confirm the date for the board meeting, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-5-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $52.94. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-03 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Double bottom. No movement Friday as COO continued its lateral move over the 10 day MVA (43.27), now forming a very nice, tight handle to the 9 week base. A really nice pattern. Outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation along with solid money flow.
Volume: 156.1K Avg Volume: 384.136K
BUY POINT: $44.06 Volume=550K Target=$50.88 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: COO BI - Feb. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 10/25/2003
CPWM (Cost Plus World Market--$43.48; -0.27; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-20-99 at a stock price of $47.The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpwm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Friday CPWM again tested the 18 day MVA (42.86) as it continues the nice test of the breakout two weeks back. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. Anticipating a jump up from here on continued strong volume.
Volume: 291.059K Avg Volume: 235.772K
BUY POINT: New: $44.25 (orig. $43.65) Volume=337K Target=$51.95 Stop=$43.78
POSITION: CUS BH - Feb. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cpwm.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$27.31; +0.56; optionable): Watches, shoes, fashion accessories. Forecast to announce a split on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.70. the annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Starting to make the move, up off the 18 day MVA (26.60) Friday on some rising though still below average volume. It spent last week forming a very nice handle, and we are looking for that patient 10 week base to now make the breakout and for the stock to follow that money flow higher.
Volume: 179.28K Avg Volume: 245.681K
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=369K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.25
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$70; -1.1; optionable): Online education. No split with October earnings. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Hanging in there, still in the drift back after surging off of the 50 day MVA (67.33) to start last week. Volume since that blast higher has been below average though it was rising some Friday as UOPX tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (69.60) and rebounded to close at the 10 day. Still holding up very well. Good for new buys on another volume blast higher from here.
Volume: 169.112K Avg Volume: 241.863K
BUY POINT: New: $72.35 (orig. $71.12) Volume=315K Target=$84 Stop=$68.72
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/06/2003
APA (Apache--$69.9; -0.1; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on a yet to be announced date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. After peaking at 23 in early October APA has pulled back to test the 50 day MVA (68.89) where there is also price support. After a strong bound move Wednesday and Thursday, it tried to continue the move but after a nice early surge, faded back to flat. Still positioned very well for a continued bounce up off the 50 day.
Volume: 764.6K Avg Volume: 1.346M
BUY POINT: $70.38 Volume=1.8M Target=$75.55 Stop=$69.22
POSITION: APA AN - Jan. $70c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apa.html
End part 2 of 3
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world stock market
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