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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1970.74
Resistance: The near top of the channel (1995). The second, higher channel hit in September is at 2020. Then 2050 to 2075, the early January 2002 double top.
Support: October high (1967). The 10 day MVA (1949) held Wednesday. The 18 day MVA (1934). The September high (1913). The 50 day MVA (1880). 1860 to 1865. The March/August up trendline (1875).
S&P 500: Closed at 1053.21
Resistance: Trading all around 1054 (October highs). The December to June upper channel line at 1069. 1080 from February 2002 lows. 1100 represents some early 2001 lows. 1150 to 1175, the early 2002 double top.
Support: The 10 day MVA (1050) and the 18 day MVA (1046). 1040, the September highs. 1030 to 1032 (early September highs). The exponential 50 day MVA (1030). The top of the summer range at 1015. 1010 the early September highs. 975 (December 1997 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9809.79
Resistance: The October high (9850). 10,000 is the candle that attracts the moth.
Support: 9800 (April and May 2002 lows). The 10 day MVA (9753). The 18 day MVA (9753). 9686 (September high). The exponential 50 day MVA (9609). 9588 the early September highs. 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the summer range.
Economic Calendar
11-13-03
Trade balance, September (8:30): -$40.5B expected, -39.2B August.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 370K expected, 348K prior.
11-14-03
PPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% September.
Core PPI: 0.1% expected, 0.0% September.
Retail sales, October (8:30): 0.1% expected. -0.2% September.
Retail sales ex-auto (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% September.
Industrial production, October (9:15): 0.4% expected, 0.4% September.
Capacity utilization, October (9:15): 74.9% expected, 74.7% September.
Michigan preliminary sentiment, November (9:45): 91.5 expected, 89.6 October.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS:
Q: I'm very perplexed over constant federal releases that there is no inflation in the US marketplace. My personal experiences and those of many of my close friends show a decidedly different picture. Recently I've experienced a 24% increase in my medical insurance premiums and a 16% increase in long term care premiums. My yacht coverage was recently increased 9%. My home security firm increased monthly fees 23%, and my dial-up ISP (which I use as back-up to my cable connection) increased monthly fees 21%. A national brand tea product which we've purchased for years was just increased 22% by our Kroger owned local market. These are whopping increases and mostly by national firms. So I doubt these increases are localized to our geographic area. I can't understand why these are not showing up in the federal figures. They're very real to those of us paying the bills.
A: You are absolutely correct that there are substantial increases in prices in certain areas in the economy, particularly healthcare-related. The coffee price increase is interesting given the glut of coffee on the world market. In any event, there are many areas rising but there are also areas wher prices continue to fall such as computers and other electronics. The government measures prices in the aggregate, meaning the declining prices offset the rising prices, to come up with its average.
The point you bring home, however, is that the prices that impact you on a regular basis are rising while those that impact you irregularly (you don't buy a computer every month) are falling. Jimmy Rogers, a famed investor who started with Warren Buffet, has the same common sense observation you had: prices are rising despite what the government says. This has implications on interest rates if the government is underestimating price rises. It could lead to an upside spike in prices and rates if demand outpaces supply.
We discussed this during the arguments over passing the tax cuts. There had to be enough supply side stimulus to get businesses producing to match the increased demand stimulus triggers. If not you then do get inflationary pressures because businesses cannot produce enough to meet demand. We are seeing some of that now with the low inventories and high sales. Businesses are investing, but they are not cranking out the huge amount of goods yet, and that is not helping pricing at this point. Businesses do not want to miss sales for lack of capacity or inventory, but after the sharp slowdown in 2000 they are reluctant to make the commitments. That is why it is important to maintain stability regarding taxation policy so business can at least know the tax rug will not be yanked out from under them if they commit to more production.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ACN;; AMX; EGHT; EGOV; EMBT; GISX; IDTI; QCOM; SCMR
Best Plays:
1) CTEL: Showing excellent action as it makes its breakout move.
2) PLUM: Nice combination base.
3) CAI: A long term leader making an orderly breakout test.
4) ARIA: Ready for the breakaway move.
5) CORI: Straining for the breakout.
6) CRA: Ready.
7) LNUX: Volume is jumping as it starts flexing.
8) QCOM: Making the solid move on excellent trade.
NEW PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/09/2003
CAI (Caci Intl--$49.89; +0.03; optionable): Technical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cai.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CAI broke from a 6 week doule bottom in late October, rallied over 50, and is now making a nice, lazy, orderly test of the breakout, coming back to the 10 day MVA (49.26). it is moving in a tight intraday range and on low volume, just what you want to see on a breakout test. Accumulation in the base is a solid 3 to 1 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), money flow is strong, and relative strength broke out on the October surge. Very nice test, and we look for a bounced up from here on stronger trade. It is a perrenial market lead,e rand is ready to move to yet another new all-time high.
Volume: 326.6K Avg Volume: 387.318K
BUY POINT: $50.88 Volume=581K Target=$51 Stop=$49.08
POSITION: CAI CB - Mar. $47.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cai.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
CTEL (City Telecom (HK)--$9.55; +1.02; no options): Hong Kong telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctel.html
STATUS: Breakout. CTEL is breaking out of a combo cup followed by ascending triangle. It formed a 13 week cup sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. It broke from that in mid-October, but then slipped into the current 4 week triangle showing more excellent accumulation (3 to 0). Friday it made the initial breakout move on very strong trade, blasting through 9. Surging money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. Very, very solid move, and we are looking at picking up positions on a continued move higher.
Volume: 522.083K Avg Volume: 85.181K
BUY POINT: $9.62 Volume=128K Target=$11.62 Stop=$8.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctel.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
IFX (Infineon Tech--$15.7; +0.5; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ifx.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. IFX is in the process of breaking out of an 8 week triangle, blasting higher Friday on a tremendous volume surge. It formed this triangle using the 50 day MVA (14.12) on the lows as the bottom of the base as it moves toward a breakout over 15.25. It did that Friday as noted. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 3 to 2 and is combined with some excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. After a strong move it may test back a bit to start the week; all the better. If not we will take positions if it gives us a good volume move.
Volume: 1.886M Avg Volume: 887.818K
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=1.3M Target=$19 Stop=$14.82
POSITION: IFX CC - Mar. $15c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ifx.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
MVSN (Macrovision--$22.58; +0.03; optionable): Movie production and theaters
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MVSN is forming a very nice handle to its 13 week base after a nice $12 run. It definitely needed the breather this base provides. The base works out the short term sellers and then leaves just those committed to the stock. With accumulation at an excellent 8 to 1, there were more buyers than sellers during the base, indicating the big money was moving in quietly and purchasing the stock. This move lower in the handle to the 18 day MVA (21.87) on low, below average volume shakes out the last sellers and clears the way for the breakout and the next run higher.
Volume: 409.894K Avg Volume: 593.909K
BUY POINT: $23.08 Volume=891K Target=$27.69 Stop=$21.99
POSITION: MVU DX - Apr. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mvsn.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
PLUM (Plumtree Software--$5.47; -0.03; no options): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plum.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. PLUM is working through a 4 week base that is working up the 18 day MVA (5.29) while tapping at a constant top at 5.75. The highe and higher lows moving toward the top at 5.75 builds pressure for the breakout. With solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern, there is plenty of buying ongoing. This is a base on base pattern, coming after the breakout from a 14 week cup with handle base, is one of our favorite combination patterns. That prior base showed excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Outstanding money flow and relative strength ready to deliver the next breakout with the stock. Volume started to edge higher Thursday and Friday, and that is often an indication that the stock is reay to try a move.
Volume: 221.093K Avg Volume: 153.045K
BUY POINT: $5.78 Volume=230K Target=$7.52 Stop=$5.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plum.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/25/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$51.04; -0.67; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (50.83) after a nice break higher to end the prior week. We did not like the reversal after the breakout, but the stock is holding up well and on low volume. It may take more time to consolidate, but with strong money flow we want to be ready.
Volume: 676.502K Avg Volume: 1.992M
BUY POINT: New: $52.25 (orig. $49.59) Volume=3.1M Target=$59.38 Stop=$49.68
POSITION: QVC DJ - Mar. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/advp.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
ARIA (Ariad Pharma--$7.39; -0.05; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aria.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Looks great in a very nice, low volume handle to its 6 week base. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation and money flow, and the price action indicates it is trying to make the next breakaway move. Ready to jump on it when it does.
Volume: 335.783K Avg Volume: 498.909K
BUY POINT: $7.56 Volume=694K Target=$8.98 Stop=$6.96
POSITION: UAQ BU - Feb. $7.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aria.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
ASL (Ashanti Goldfields--$11.47; +0.47; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The pattern has stretched out and morphed into a triangle, holding over the 50 day MVA (10.66) as it formed, a good sign of institutional support. Friday ASL used the reversal in the market to make a good price move, but volume, though higher, was still below average. On the verge of the breakout, and we just need to see some storng volume married to the move through the buy point.
Volume: 632.8K Avg Volume: 914.454K
BUY POINT: $11.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$14.22 Stop=$10.81
POSITION: ASL CB - Mar. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asl.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
CORI (Corillian Corp.--$6.97; +0.17; no options): Internet service provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cori.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume surged Friday as CORI raced over resistance at 7 but then it reversed and gave most of the move back. Still a very nice pattern with surging money flow out ahead of price and relative strength at the breakout point. Could be an explosive move this week.
Volume: 2.297M Avg Volume: 495.909K
BUY POINT: New: $7.12 (orig. $6.25) Volume=550K Target=$8.85 Stop=$6.08
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cori.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
CRA (Applera--$13.66; +0.39; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Testing the breakout. Huge volume Thursday and then starting up again Friday but on below average trade. Still very solid breakout and test of the 5 month base (great 8 to 3 accumulation). On a further move on any better volume it is a buy.
Volume: 501K Avg Volume: 535.59K
BUY POINT: New: $13.76 (orig. $13.62) Volume=747K Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.58
POSITION: CRA CV - Mar. $12.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cra.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
LNUX (VA Software--$5.15; +0.03; optionable): Application development software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnux.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Tried the breakout from its 8 week base Friday as volume surged on a move to 5.67 that, alas, could not last. It has been walking up the 50 and 18 day MVA (4.55, 4.98). Accumulation is an excellent 3 to 0 in the base and there is solid money flow to boot. Still looking for a strong breakout from here.
Volume: 4.948M Avg Volume: 2.694M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $5.38 Breakout: 5.58 Volume=3M Target=$6.99 Stop=$4.95
POSITION: UKF BA - Feb. $5c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lnux.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
NEOF (Neoforma--$16.2; +0.15; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neof.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Still working on a handle to its 9 week base, tapping lower intraday the past week and rebounding to recoup the lossses on the close. Very low volume as it should be in the handle as NEOF continued to form up for the breakout. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base and strong money flow. Just being patient and waiting for the storng volume breakout.
Volume: 26.218K Avg Volume: 98.772K
BUY POINT: $16.58 Volume=151K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.42
POSITION: QZX DC - Apr. $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neof.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$48.04; +1.38; optionable): Telecom wireless and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. The three sessions of strong, above average volume started paying off Friday as QCOM jumped off the 10 day MVA on strong trade. It rallied over 48, but then gave a bit of the move back. Showing very good action in its 6 week flat base sporting 3 to 0 accumulation. Reported great earnings last week, and it looks to still be in a good point to move in on a further rally.
Volume: 13.867M Avg Volume: 10.134M
BUY POINT: $48.12 Volume=14M Target=$57.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAO DW - Apr. $47.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
TRPH (Tripath Technology--$5.24; +0.14; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trph.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. TRPH was trying the breakout last week, rallying over 5.50 on some solid volume but unable to make the definitive breakaway. It has come back to test the 10 day MVA (4.96) on the intraday lows to end the week as volume backed off to well below average. Still very solid in its 6 week base. Just looking for the next strong move over resistance.
Volume: 1.015M Avg Volume: 1.201M
BUY POINT: New: $5.56 (orig. $5.31) Volume=1.8M Target=$6.62 Stop=$4.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trph.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/01/2003
AAI (Airtran Holdings--$16.11; -0.31; optionable): Regional airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aai.html
STATUS: Put. Starting to show its weakness again as it fell below the 50 day MVA (16.43) Friday on volume that surged back above average. Want to see it continue down on rising volume to move into positions. Still heavy distribution.
Volume: 2.384M Avg Volume: 1.875M
BUY POINT: $16.04 Volume=250K Target=$14 Stop=$16.62
POSITION: AAI XW - Jan. $17.50p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aai.html
End part 2 of 3
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world stock market
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