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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: BRLI; EGHT; EMBT; AAI
Best Plays:
1) ARDI: Starting to fall on sharply higher volume.
2) ANT: Nice triangle with good money flow.
3) TLAB: Showing some excellent action.
4) CAI: Nice test of the breakout.
5) LNUX Still solid in the pattern.
6) NEOF: Very nice lateral move on very low volume.
7) TRPH: Still forming up over the 10 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/10/2003
ANT (Anteon Intl.--$34; +0.28; optionable): IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ant.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. ANT is making a higher low at the 18 day MVA (33.61) in its 11 week pattern. It has used its 50 day MVA (32.73) as support for the move higher, and this higher low at the 18 day MVA as the pattern pinches together indicates it may be ready to make the breakout move over the constant high at 35ish. Accumulation in the pattern is positive at 3 to 2 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) with money flow heading higher as ANT makes a lateral move the past week down to the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Monday it was moving up off that level on rising trade, and we are looking for it to continue higher on strong volume on the breakout move.
Volume: 271.3K Avg Volume: 373.772K
BUY POINT: $35.22 Volume=561K Target=$42 Stop=$33.55
POSITION: ANT DG - Apr. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ant.html
Play Date: 11/10/2003
TLAB (Tellabs--$7.75; +0.19; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlab.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving through a 9 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation as it formed over the 200 day MVA (6.84), a good support level as it shows big money buying the stock at that point. It has now rallied back up close to the 'hump' in the middle of the W pattern and has started moving laterally. Money flow continues to rise even as it works laterally over the 10 day MVA (7.57). Monday volume jumped well above average as it started higher but then fell back. Looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 6.752M Avg Volume: 4.247M
BUY POINT: $8.12 Volume=6M Target=$9.75 Stop=$7.55
POSITION: TEQ CU - Mar. $7.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tlab.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/10/2003
ARDI (At Road, Inc.--$12.31; -1.04; optionable): IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ardi.html
STATUS: Put. ARDI was in a nice pattern until late October when it was trashed, gapping below the 50 day MVA (13.32) and tanking to the 200 day MVA (9.97). It has fought back up, moved along the 50 day MVA, but then rolled over again Monday as volume jumped back above average. Diving money flow and under distribution. Looking to move in on a further fall from here.
Volume: 1.003M Avg Volume: 675.454K
BUY POINT: $12.12 Volume=1M Target=$10.06 Stop=$13.31
POSITION: UDH MV - Jan. $12.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ardi.html
Play Date: 11/10/2003
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$18.41; -0.95; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Put. After making a lower high in October, ASKJ fell back to the 50 day MVA (19.36), worked laterally, but then gave way Monday on rising, average volume. This stock has a lot of kick still in it, but it takes periodic drops. This second fall below the 50 day MVA in a month indicates another one of those drops is here. Looking for a decent $2 move down to 16 as the first target, and we can make a very nice return on that move with some puts.
Volume: 2.585M Avg Volume: 2.465M
BUY POINT: $18.22 Volume=2.5M Target=$16 Stop=$19.55
POSITION: AUK XD - Dec. $20p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/25/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$50.32; -0.72; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ADVP continues to test the breakout move, falling back to the 18 day MVA (49.85) Monday on continued below average volume. It has come back for a full test of the breakout, and now look for it to rebound and continue the breakout from the solid 8 week pattern. May take a couple more days, but getting ready.
Volume: 957.45K Avg Volume: 1.992M
BUY POINT: New: $52.25 (orig. $49.59) Volume=3.1M Target=$59.38 Stop=$49.68
POSITION: QVC DJ - Mar. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/advp.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
AMXC (AMX Corp.--$6.26; -0.08; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amxc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A big breakout last Thursday on huge volume is being tested on lower, below average volume as AMXC comes back to test 6. Very nice pattern an 11 week cup with handle base with good accumulation and money flow. Looking for it to test 6 and then rally higher.
Volume: 79.109K Avg Volume: 108.909K
BUY POINT: New: Test 27, then $6.27 Volume=151K Target=$8.12 Stop=$5.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amxc.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
ARIA (Ariad Pharma--$7.26; -0.13; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aria.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried to make the next move out of the 7 week base, but after gapping higher ARIA eased back to the 10 day MVA on the close. Volume remained low. Still solid with strong 4 to 0 accumulation and money flow.
Volume: 273.729K Avg Volume: 498.909K
BUY POINT: $7.56 Volume=694K Target=$8.98 Stop=$6.96
POSITION: UAQ BU - Feb. $7.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aria.html
Play Date: 10/21/2003
ASL (Ashanti Goldfields--$11.49; +0.02; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Ran higher Monday on some better though still below average volume, trying to make the breakout but gave the move back. Still in a nice ascending triangle (started as a flat cup with handle). Volume has been rising the past three sessions, and now we need to see a breakout on strong trade to enter positions.
Volume: 820.2K Avg Volume: 914.454K
BUY POINT: $11.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$14.22 Stop=$10.81
POSITION: ASL CB - Mar. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asl.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
CAI (Caci Intl--$49.83; -0.06; optionable): Technical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cai.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still a very nice test of the breakout, moving laterally on low volume over the 10 day MVA (48.41) in a very tight range. Excellent money flow and relative strength in its 6 week doule bottom. Accumulation in the base is a solid 3 to 1 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Holding up well in the selling market. Looks very good for an all time high.
Volume: 221.5K Avg Volume: 387.318K
BUY POINT: $50.88 Volume=581K Target=$51 Stop=$49.08
POSITION: CAI CB - Mar. $47.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cai.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
CORI (Corillian Corp.--$6.85; -0.12; no options): Internet service provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cori.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After surging Friday, volume backed off Monday as CORI held steady over the 10 day MVA (6.57) as it continues to work in the short 4 week pattern. Strong money flow and relative strength. Looking for the breakout this week.
Volume: 599.318K Avg Volume: 495.909K
BUY POINT: New: $7.12 (orig. $6.25) Volume=550K Target=$8.85 Stop=$6.08
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cori.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
LNUX (VA Software--$5.1; -0.05; optionable): Application development software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnux.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still holding up well over the 10 day MVA (5.07) as it works laterally in the 8 week base. It is making higher and higher lows below a constant top at 5.50. Accumulation is an excellent 3 to 0 in the base and there is solid money flow to boot.
Volume: 1.218M Avg Volume: 2.694M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $5.38 Breakout: 5.58 Volume=3M Target=$6.99 Stop=$4.95
POSITION: UKF BA - Feb. $5c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lnux.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
MVSN (Macrovision--$22.28; -0.3; optionable): Movie production and theaters
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of its 13 week base after a nice $12 run. Excellent accumulation at 8 to 1 shows big buyers moving in during the pattern. Just being patient and waitin for the breakout.
Volume: 260.676K Avg Volume: 593.909K
BUY POINT: $23.08 Volume=891K Target=$27.69 Stop=$21.99
POSITION: MVU DX - Apr. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mvsn.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
NEOF (Neoforma--$16.15; -0.05; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neof.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Another doji at the 10 day MVA (15.92) as NEOF continues working on a handle to its 9 week base. Very low volume as it should be in the handle as NEOF continued to form up for the breakout. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base and strong money flow. Another one we just have to be patient with.
Volume: 35.163K Avg Volume: 98.772K
BUY POINT: $16.58 Volume=151K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.42
POSITION: QZX DC - Apr. $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neof.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
PLUM (Plumtree Software--$5.33; -0.14; no options): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plum.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A slight setback Monday, but not much as PLUM dipped back to the 18 day MVA (5.29) on the close. Volume backed off as it did, still maintaining the pattern. PLUM is working through a 4 week base that is working up the 18 day while tapping at a constant top at 5.75. The higher and higher lows moving toward the top at 5.75 builds pressure for the breakout. With solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern, there is plenty of buying ongoing. This is a base on base pattern, coming after the breakout from a 14 week cup with handle base, is one of our favorite combination patterns. That prior base showed excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Outstanding money flow and relative strength ready to deliver the next breakout with the stock. Volume started to edge higher Thursday and Friday, and that is often an indication that the stock is reay to try a move.
Volume: 138.045K Avg Volume: 153.045K
BUY POINT: $5.78 Volume=230K Target=$7.52 Stop=$5.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plum.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$8.11; -0.17; no options): Foreign telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After exploding higher the past week TEO gapped down Monday to the 10 day MVA (7.94), but it showed a tight doji at that level on lower volume. That shows there was no major dumping. Looking for it to hold the breakout from its 4 month base at this point and rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 587.3K Avg Volume: 385.954K
BUY POINT: New: 8.28 (orig. $7.26) Volume=511K Target=$10 Stop=$7.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/teo.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
TRPH (Tripath Technology--$5.2; -0.04; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trph.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (5.00) as it tightens up, preparing to make the breakout move from its 6 week base. Strong money flow and relative strength setting the path. Now we just wait for TRPH to make the next move.
Volume: 766.684K Avg Volume: 1.201M
BUY POINT: New: $5.56 (orig. $5.31) Volume=1.8M Target=$6.62 Stop=$4.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trph.html
Downside:
AAI: Good move lower.
Play Date: 11/01/2003
ASCA (Ameristar Casinos--$20.4; -0.21; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asca.html
STATUS: Put. Has dropped to 20 and is moving laterally along that level on lower though slightly above average volume. Looking for another turn down from here on continued solid trade, breaking through suppport at 20 and moving down to the 200 day MVA near 18.
Volume: 189.317K Avg Volume: 133.227K
BUY POINT: $20.27 Volume=185K Target=$18.05 Stop=$21.25
POSITION: UWT XX - Dec. $22.50p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asca.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock recommendation
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