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Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: FOSL; URBN
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 11/11/2003
CLE (Claires Stores--$41.44; -0.04; optionable): Apparel Stores. Splits 2:1 on 12-22-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CLE started the month with a bang, breaking higher off the 18 day MVA (39.84) and surging for a nice 5 point gain on strong volume. It has spent the past three sessions coming back to test the move, pulling back on lower, below average volume. That is just the action you want to see on a pullback as it shows few sellers, just profit takers. Money flow surged on the break higher and relative strength broke out. It is testing back toward the 10 day MVA (40.73), showing a doji over that level. May tap down to the 10 day one more time and then resume the breakout.
Volume: 259.9K Avg Volume: 441.318K
BUY POINT: $41.75 Volume=500K Target=$48 Stop=$40.62
POSITION: CLE BH - Feb. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/11/2003
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$43.3; +0.95; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. We jumped out of NVLS too early, but we booked a gain so we are not complaining. It held the 10 day MVA (42.63) and started to rebound Tuesday. Now volume was not what we wanted, but it was good action, testing the breakout but holding over the August and September highs that formed the left-side highs in the pattern (a 9 week reverse head and shoulders). Strong money flow continues to improvea s the price pulls back. Looking for a further rebound from here on some much better volume. Chips were leading back Tuesday, so we want to be in them.
Volume: 5.988M Avg Volume: 7.555M
BUY POINT: $43.62 Volume=8.5M Target=$51 Stop=$41.32
POSITION: NLQ CA - Mar. $42.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvls.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
TXCC (Transwitch--$3.2; +0.05; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txcc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TXCC broke out from 6 week flat base to end October, surging on strong volume. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) set the foundation for a good move. it has come back on lower, below average volume to test the breakout, tapping the 18 day MVA (3.01) on t the low Tuesday and rebounding to post a slight gain on volume that was still below average volume but crept higher. Nice breakout and now looking to pick it up off the test.
Volume: 1.047M Avg Volume: 1.83M
BUY POINT: $3.38 Volume=2.2M Target=$4.42 Stop=$3.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/txcc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 11/10/2003
CRAI (Charles River Assoc.--$33.09; +0.09; no options): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crai.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/pattern. Tried to make a breakout from the handle to its 9 week base Tuesday, but there was not enough volume and it fell back to continue the lateral move on below average volume. Very nice pattern showing outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). As noted Monday, it make take a couple more days to get ready to make the breakout, but it is a nice pattern.
Volume: 34.277K Avg Volume: 71.454K
BUY POINT: $33.32 Volume=109K Target=$40 Stop=$41.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crai.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$49.99; -0.2; optionable): Portable GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Reached way down below the 18 day MVA (48.80) on the Tuesday low and then rallied furiously back on rising though still below average volume. GRMN was one of the early leaders out of the October low and made us a lot of money on that run from 20 to 50. It then had to take a serious rest and fell into the current 20 week base that started on news it was not getting a contract to put devices into Chrysler cars. That did not slow earnings, however, and GRMN just reported blowout numbers toward the end of October. That shot the stock higher, forming the rest of the right side of the cup base. It has spent the last week drifting back on lower volume ot form the handle that shakes out the last sellers and short term profit takers. Accumulation in the base is a strong 6 to 3 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating that big money has been quietly accumulating the stock during the base. This may be all the testing it does, but we just wait for it to move through the buy point on strong volume.
Volume: 345.92K Avg Volume: 456.045K
BUY POINT: $52.62 Volume=690K Target=$60.62 Stop=$48.98
POSITION: GQR DK - Apr. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
VARI (Varian--$38.76; +0.62; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. VARI blasted higher four sessions back on huge volume, blowing out of the 16 week cup base. Huge money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move. A strong break that has come back on lower and lower volume to test the 10 day MVA (37.68), tapping that level on the lows Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday it posted a gain though volume did not rally. Looking for it to continue the move on stronger volume as an add-to or new positions.
Volume: 149.47K Avg Volume: 207.727K
BUY POINT: $39.21 Volume=260K Target=$46.88 Stop=$37.97
POSITION: IUA BG - Feb. $35c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vari.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
XLNX (Xilinx--$33.85; +0.65; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. XLNX blasted out of a 7 week double bottom to start the month, rallying to 34 on the high before coming back to test the 10 day MVA (32.83). A very modest pullback. Excellent relative strength shows how stubborn it has been with its gains. With the chips looking as if they want to lead, we are looking to get some more XLNX when it breaks clear of the recent highs.
Volume: 5.238M Avg Volume: 7.497M
BUY POINT: New: $34.12 (orig. $32.68) Volume=11M Target=$38.68 Stop=$32.94
POSITION: XLQ CZ - Mar. $32.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xlnx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Many stocks making moves without announcing splits as companies are still a bit gun-shy. Still getting strong moves from these leaders, and that is why we love split-caliber stocks. They also tend to announce after earnings as JAH shows. At this juncture many have rallied higher out of buy position, but there are still some that look ready to move. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong.
ACV: No split on 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03 but an excellent breakout.
AVP: Broke the 18 day MVA and we exited.
CEDC: No split announced 11-11-03. Fell back to the 10 day MVA after a big volume move Monday.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
FDX: Forecast 12-17-03.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03. No split but great earnings and looks ready for a lot more upside.
FRED: Forecast 11-20-03.
HSIC: Forecast 11-20-03
KLAC: Still researching the date.
LM: No split on 10-22 with earnings. Moving laterally over the 10 day MVA.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
ORLY: No split announced 10-28-03 after the close. Auto parts are announcing splits so we are researching the next day.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
PIR: Forecast 12-4-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting. Powering higher.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03.
UOPX: Researching the next date.
VRTS: No split announced on 10-22-03. Researching the next possible date.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/11/2003
SCSS (Select Comfort--$27.8; -0.09; optionable): Air mattresses. Researching a date for SCSS but great entry point so we wanted to get it on the report.
BACKGROUND: Trading for 5 years but no split yet. It is in a range where retailers start to announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (27.41). A breakout from a cup with handle in April and a stellar run higher using the 50 day as support. It has bounced up off the 50 day two prior times and has come back to this key level the past week, holding there Tuesday as it showed a very tight doji. After a pullback that can indicate a change in momentum, particularly if it appears over an important support level. Looking for a strong move back up, clearing the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA) to take positions.
Volume: 976.897K Avg Volume: 515.363K
BUY POINT: $29.22 Volume=1M Target=$35 Stop=$28.96
POSITION: QSL CF - Mar. $30c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scss.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/13/2003
APPB (Applebees Intl.--$37.7; +0.68; optionable): Restaurants. No split on 10-29-03 with earnings, but moving well.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-9-02 at a stock price of $24.17. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-8-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After blasting off to end October on strong volume and a big breakout from a 4 month flat base, APPB has come back slightly to test the breakout, holding the 10 day MVA (37.20) on the lows. It is being very stingy with its gains, a good sign that the breakout is strong. Looking for it to resume the move higher on rising volume.
Volume: 252.444K Avg Volume: 476.272K
BUY POINT: New: $38.12 (orig. $37.55) Volume=750K Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: AQB BG - Feb. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appb.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
FDX (Federal Express--$76.06; -0.62; optionable): Express delivery. Forecast to announce a split on 12-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-18-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $92. Also announced a 2 for 1 on 10-1-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-29-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FDX made the breakout in mid-October, rallied to 78, and is now testing the breakout on low, below average volume. It is holding the 10 day MVA (75.65) on the tests, an indication of the stock's strength. Looking for a bounce up from here on rising volume for new or additional positions.
Volume: 883.8K Avg Volume: 1.456M
BUY POINT: $77.72 Volume=1.8M Target=$90 Stop=$72.28
POSITION: FDX AO - Jan. $75c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$27.97; +1.34; optionable): Watches, shoes, fashion accessories. No split announced on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings, but great earnings and looks ready to scream higher.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.70. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FOSL soared to 29.25 on the Tuesday high but then peeled back, giving up over $1 off the high (29.25) to close. Huge volume. Very nice 10 week base, and it has the impetus to make the breakout stick and rally well.
Volume: 1.287M Avg Volume: 244.272K
BUY POINT: New: $28.12 (orig. $27.48) Volume=369K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.25
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$59; +0.82; optionable): Chip equipment. Chip equipment. Still researching to pinpoint the exact date, but looks ready for a bigger move higher.
BACKGROUND: Split 2:1 in January 2001 at the height of the tech boom. It is now coming back and growing earnings, heading for that $70 area that has become the primary split range.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. KLAC tried the breakout Thursday but reversed Friday. It came back on lower volume, however, holding the 18 day MVA (58.15). KLAC is making a series of higher lows near the 50 day MVA (56.61) with a constant top near 60. Accumulation in this 10 week base is 2 to 1 and relative strength is ready to make a breakout. It held the test back, so we are looking for it to make the next move as chips look ready to lead again.
Volume: 6.41M Avg Volume: 8.572M
BUY POINT: $61.06 Volume=12M Target=$73 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: KCQ AL - Jan. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/klac.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
MIK (Michaels--$49.2; +0.11; optionable): Arts and craft stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-31-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. MIK broke higher Friday on strong trade, breaking over the resistance in the 9 week pattern showing positive 2 to 1 accumulation. It has moved laterally on very low volume this week as the market pulled back, showing excellent relative strength. That indicates when the selling is done it will lead back up. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout. Consumer stocks are performing well, and this time stock has made an excellent recovery. This short pattern is actually part of a 14 month reverse head and shoulders, another accumulation pattern.
Volume: 333.5K Avg Volume: 574.5K
BUY POINT: New: $49.72 (orig. $49) Volume=873K Target=$58.74 Stop=$47.32
POSITION: MIK CT - Mar. $47.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
PIR (Pier 1 Imports--$25.79; +0.18; optionable): Home furnishing stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 12-9-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates, but based upon our research these are the dates.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in June 1998 at a stock price of $25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pir.html
STATUS: Breakout. PIR raised its guidance last week when the retail sales increases were announced, and that news shot it higher in a continued breakout move from a 12 week base formed from July to early October. This week it has held in there as the market sold, moving laterally in a tight range, holding onto its gains and easily holding over the 10 day MVA (24.61) on lower trade. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. We have been looking for it to fill the gap down toward the 10 day MVA (24.61), but it may not make it that far.
Volume: 599.4K Avg Volume: 1.043M
BUY POINT: Test 25, then $25.25 on the way back up. If it starts from here, 26.12 on above average volume. Volume=1.6M Target=$30.35 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: PIR CE - Mar. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pir.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
ROST (Ross Stores--$53.55; +0.47; optionable): Discount apparel. Forecast to announce a split on 11-18-03 during the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $42.32.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ROST has perked up, forming a short 5 week pattern, using the 50 day MVA (50.47) on the low as support. Money flow has surged higher and relative strength is breaking out even as the market pulls back. Looks super and looking for a strong breakout move through the buy point.
Volume: 604.647K Avg Volume: 813.954K
BUY POINT: $54.25 Volume=1.2M Target=$65 Stop=$52.34
POSITION: REQ BK - Feb. $55c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/21/2003
BLUD (Immucor--$30.67; -0.19; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Splits 3:2 on 11-17-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. BLUD made the breakout from its 6 week base to start the month and has come back to test the 18 day MVA (30) on the low and rebounded to recoup most of the gain. Holding up very well as the market tests back. Looking for the next move higher to add to or start new positions.
Volume: 83.355K Avg Volume: 201.909K
BUY POINT: $31.22 Volume=320K Target=$35.85 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: QMQ LF - Dec. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
DIOD (Diodes--$27.5; -0.72; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Splits 3:2 on 11-26-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After exploding higher to start the month, rallying over 30, DIOD is falling back on lower volume testing the 10 day MVA (26.76) on the Tuesday low and rebounding on the close. This is the breakout test that sets up the next leg higher. Looking for a move up from here on rising trade for new or additional positions.
Volume: 94.796K Avg Volume: 51.045K
BUY POINT: New: $28.55 (orig. $26.08) Volume=75K Target=$31.25 Stop=$25.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$42.75; -0.6; optionable): Athletic shoes and apparel. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. KSWS is still at the 18 day MVA (42.46) after blasting higher two weeks back on some solid news regarding earnings. It is holding at price support from the high on the left side of the base. Money flow is still very strong, and looking for the stock to follow that money flow back up.
Volume: 51.084K Avg Volume: 184.681K
BUY POINT: $43.28 Volume=225K Target=$49.85 Stop=$42.22
POSITION: SWU AH - Jan. $40c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$32.87; -0.19; optionable): Video poker, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. IGT shot higher out of a cup with handle in September and is currently making the second test of the 18 day MVA (32.23) after the breakout. Already a good play for us, it has come back and shown a doji on the 10 day MVA (32.90). After a pullback this is an indication it is ready to continue the breakout, and a good point to pick it off.
Volume: 1.677M Avg Volume: 2.509M
BUY POINT: New: 33.55 (orig. $29.05) Volume=4.7M Target=$39 (orig. positions $34.55) Stop=$32.75
POSITION: IGT AY - Jan. $27.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
End part 2 of 3
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