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trade stock, stock option
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: ANT; TLAB; CAN; ADVP; BRCM; BRLI; CKSW; CPHD; IDTI; MCHP; NMGC; SCKT
Best Plays:
1) MKSI: Volume rising as it heads for the breakout.
2) QADI: Ready to make a breakout from its flat base.
3) VSH: Another flat base that looks ready for the breakout.
4) LTXX: Showing great action as it heads for the breakout.
5) QCOM: Ready for the next move on rising volume.
6) TRPH: Volume rising as it moves toward the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/12/2003
MCLD (McLeodusa, Inc.--$1.64; +0.11; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcld.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working on the breakout from the handle of a 17 week base sporting solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume). Nice pattern as it has used the 200 day MVA (1.05) as the lows of the two legs. Starting the run toward the breakout of the handle with volume jumping above average and surging money flow. Ready to make the move.
Volume: 2.53M Avg Volume: 2.016M
BUY POINT: $1.78 Volume=3M Target=$2.32 Stop=$1.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mcld.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
MKSI (MKS Instruments--$28.17; +1.06; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mksi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working on the handle of a 10 week base, moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (27.07) as it sets up for the breakout. Accumulation is a solid 3 to 1 and money flow is surging ahead of price as the stock moves laterally. Wednesday it started higher off that level on rising, average trade. Solid pattern, solid sector, and relative strength is ready to breakout as well, an indication of the strength of the stock and its move.
Volume: 405.473K Avg Volume: 410.371K
BUY POINT: $29.14 Volume=616K Target=$34.98 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QQB DF - Apr. $30c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mksi.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
QADI (QAD, Inc.--$12.53; +0.83; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qadi.html
STATUS: Flat base. QADI is starting a breakout move from a 6 week lateral base that has formed over the 50 day MVA (11.15). Volume dried up the past three weeks as it moved laterally, a good sign of little selling and modest accumualtion. In fact accumulation is 2 to 0, indicating buyers moving into the stock, using the lateral move to work into positions. Money flow is rallying up ahead of price as the stock moves laterally. Relative strength ready for the breakout. Volume was sharply higher Wednesday as QADI jumped off a 50 day MVA test (11.15). Looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 230.485K Avg Volume: 198.415K
BUY POINT: $12.65 Volume=298K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qadi.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
VSH (Vishay Intertechnology--$20.05; +0.98; optionable): Electronic parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsh.html
STATUS: Flat base. Working in a 6 week base that has formed over the 50 day MVA (18.43) and below 20. This is actually a handle to a 19 month cup with handle base. Surging money flow and relative strength readh to make the breakout. Volume was up sharply Wednesday as the stock jumped off the 50 day and ran to the top of the base.
Volume: 2.218M Avg Volume: 2.124M
BUY POINT: $20.33 Volume=3.2M Target=$24.38 Stop=$19.22
POSITION: VSH DD - Apr. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsh.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/09/2003
CAI (Caci Intl--$50.14; +1.04; optionable): Technical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cai.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CAI has come back to test the 18 day MVA (48.66) Tuesday and then was bounding up off of that level Wednesday. Unfortunately, volume did not track with the price action. Excellent money flow and relative strength in its 6 week doule bottom. Accumulation in the base is a solid 3 to 1 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Need to see some volume on the break to a new high.
Volume: 167.9K Avg Volume: 385.775K
BUY POINT: $50.88 Volume=581K Target=$51 Stop=$49.08
POSITION: CAI CB - Mar. $47.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cai.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
LNUX (VA Software--$5.12; -0.03; optionable): Application development software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnux.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Continues its lateral move over the 18 day MVA (5.02) as it works further to the end of the pattern in a very tight range. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the 8 week base, looking very good. Still, it did not participate in the Wednesday move. Being patient and letting it it work in the pattern.
Volume: 1.308M Avg Volume: 2.682M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $5.38 Breakout: 5.58 Volume=3M Target=$6.99 Stop=$4.95
POSITION: UKF BA - Feb. $5c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lnux.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
LTXX (LTX--$15.77; +0.86; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltxx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Started higher in the Wednesday rally on rising, average volume, just tapping the buy point late. Not enough time for us to act and we wanted better volume on the move. Still looks very solid in the 9 week base showing excellent 4 to 1 accumulation, strong money flow, and relative strength ready for the breakout. Looking for the breakout on stronger trade after the AMAT earnings.
Volume: 812.873K Avg Volume: 798.758K
BUY POINT: $15.95 Volume=1.2M Target=$19.12 Stop=$14.83
POSITION: UXT BC - Feb. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ltxx.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
MVSN (Macrovision--$22.8; +0.67; optionable): Movie production and theaters
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues in the handle of its 13 week base, moving off the 18 day MVA (22.03) Wednesday on rising though still below average volume. Excellent accumulation at 8 to 1 shows big buyers moving in during the pattern. Just being patient and waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 463.034K Avg Volume: 592.99K
BUY POINT: $23.08 Volume=891K Target=$27.69 Stop=$21.99
POSITION: MVU DX - Apr. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mvsn.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
NEOF (Neoforma--$16.39; +0.55; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neof.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Continues to work laterally over the 18 day MVA (15.76) in the handle to its 9 week base. Started higher Wednesday but volume was still well below average. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base and strong money flow. Still being patient..
Volume: 41.903K Avg Volume: 98.102K
BUY POINT: $16.58 Volume=151K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.42
POSITION: QZX DC - Apr. $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neof.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$47.81; +1.39; optionable): Telecom equipment and licenses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After surging higher in late October QCOM is working laterally over the 18 day MVA (46.40) and below 48. It tested the 18 day Tuesday, showing a tight doji . It then bounced Wednesday on stronger though still below average volume. Ready for the breakout run again but need to see that volume return back above average.
Volume: 6.836M Avg Volume: 10.125M
BUY POINT: $48.12 Volume=14M Target=$57.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAO DW - Apr. $47.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$7.98; +0.05; no options): Foreign telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Very tight doji that reached down to the 18 day MVA on the low (7.70) and then rallying to close right at the 10 day MVA (7.95). TEO exploded higher in late October from its 4 month base and has now tested that move. Ready to make the move back up.
Volume: 339.4K Avg Volume: 394.148K
BUY POINT: New: 8.28 (orig. $7.26) Volume=511K Target=$10 Stop=$7.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/teo.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
TRPH (Tripath Technology--$5.49; +0.46; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trph.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After working laterally over the 10 day MVA (5.09) for a week, TPRH is starting to move higher as volume starts to edge up. Nice looking 6 week base with strong money flow and relative strength looking solid. Now just need some more volume.
Volume: 963.916K Avg Volume: 1.214M
BUY POINT: New: $5.56 (orig. $5.31) Volume=1.8M Target=$6.62 Stop=$4.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trph.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/11/2003
SFNT (Safenet--$34.05; -0.2; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfnt.html
STATUS: Put. SFNT cratered through the 50 day MVA (35.88) three weeks back on massive volume, and then started a slow crawl back up to test the breach of that important support level. Tuesday it started a harder fall again but volume was not there. Wednesday it showed a doji at 34 on stronger, above average volume. It tapped the 10 day MVA on the high (34.74) and fell back. Still in trouble with distribution and tanking money flow. Looking for a drop from here.
Volume: 383.94K Avg Volume: 306.321K
BUY POINT: $34.05 Volume=461K Target=$30.55 Stop=$35.44
POSITION: UUI XG - Dec. $35p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sfnt.html
End part 2 of 3
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