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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Wednesday: FOSL; XLNX; NVLS; APPB; CHS; COCO; DJO; EASI; EBAY; GGP; LM; MOBE; MIK
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Post-Split
Play Date: 11/12/2003
GPRO (Gen Probe--$30.12; +1.82; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GPRO has just formed the handle to its 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). This stock was a big winner for us on its run from its breakout in late April, but after a 40 point run it needed a breather. It fell into this base. After a three session handle (the pullback matched the market), it held the 10 day MVA (28.34) and bounced on strong volume. Volume was better, but looking for more as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 1.187M Avg Volume: 743.822K
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=1.1M Target=$36.65 Stop=$28.33
POSITION: PSU BF - Feb. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/12/2003
MDCC (Molecular Devices--$19.56; +0.46; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdcc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working on the handle to a 7 week base, the point where it moves laterally and frustrates the last sellers into selling out. It is holding over the 10 day MVA (18.99) as it moves laterally with money flow surging up ahead of price. With strong 3 to 1 accumulation we are looking for price to follow the stock higher.
Volume: 57.608K Avg Volume: 57.708K
BUY POINT: $19.82 Volume=87K Target=$23.78 Stop=$18.72
POSITION: MCQ DD - Apr. $20c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mdcc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/06/2003
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$60.08; +1.08; optionable): Chip equipment. Still researching to pinpoint the exact date, but looks ready for a bigger move higher.
BACKGROUND: Split 2:1 in January 2001 at the height of the tech boom. It is now coming back and growing earnings, heading for that $70 area that has become the primary split range.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After a test of the 18 day MVA (58.36) to start the week, KLAC is rallying back on rising though still below average volume. Expecting some positive trade on the AMAT numbers. Accumulation in this 10 week base is 2 to 1 and relative strength is ready to make a breakout.
Volume: 6.673M Avg Volume: 8.697M
BUY POINT: $61.06 Volume=12M Target=$73 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: KCQ AL - Jan. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/klac.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/04/2003
DIOD (Diodes--$28.78; +1.28; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Splits 3:2 on 11-26-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Gapped below the 10 day Wednesday and then started rallying on very strong trade. Great test after blasting off to start the month and now rallying back on strong volume. Ready for more.
Volume: 181.935K Avg Volume: 51.275K
BUY POINT: New: $28.88 (orig. $26.08) Volume=75K Target=$31.25 Stop=$25.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 524.19 +5.53 523.15 545 460K 650K 518.55
Current.
ACV 08/04 Test 18 62.35 +0.42 58.45 67.45 176K 400K 62.31
Current.
ACV 07/19 BO 62.35 +0.42 54.8 65.85 176K 400K 62.31
Current.
APA 11/06 Test 50 70.95 +0.88 70.38 75.55 678K 1.8M 69.22
Current.
APPB 10/13 BO 39.05 +1.35 37.55 44.95 383K 750K 36.88
Current.
BHE 10/27 Test 50 55.04 +2.86 48.99 55.88 335K 550K 50.78
Current.
BLUD 10/21 A Wedge 31.3 +0.63 31.22 35.85 84K 320K 30.12
Current.
BSX 10/23 Test 50 34.42 +0.39 33.4 37.5 4.2M 4M 34
Current.
BSX 09/29 Test 50 34.42 +0.39 32.72 34.73 4.2M 4.5M 34
Current.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 7.35 +0.17 7.58 9.12 75K 145K 7.05
Buy Not Issued.
CEDC 10/25 Test 18 37.35 -0.91 34.25 40.88 451K 282K 36.88
Current.
CHS 10/04 Dbl btm 38.04 +1.47 34.62 41.53 1M 1.8M 36.73
Current.
CLE 11/11 Test BO 41.56 +0.12 41.75 48 221K 500K 40.62
Buy Not Hit.
CLEC 10/30 Cup hdl 5.28 +0.08 5.54 6.94 62K 96K 5.15
Buy Not Hit.
CMNT 11/06 DB hdl 10.72 +0.56 10.75 13.55 271K 800K 9.99
Buy Not Issued.
COCO 09/20 DB hdl 62.87 +1.52 59.42 69 363K 1.1M 61.55
Current.
COH 09/20 PreSplt 37.89 +1.47 30.06 34.55 2.6M 1.2M 35.62
Current.
COO 11/01 DB hdl 42.57 +0.92 44.06 50.88 121K 550K 41.95
Buy Not Issued.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 12.88 +0.55 6.5 8.12 248K 200K 11.65
Current.
CRAI 11/10 DB hdl 32.81 -0.28 33.32 40 14K 109K 41.38
Buy Not Issued.
CRIS 11/10 Cup hdl 5.32 -0.39 5.64 7.05 1.1M 885K 5.15
Buy Not Issued.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 8.36 +0.46 4.32 5.38 716K 315K 6.99
Current.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 22.33 +0.22 22.72 26.45 889K 2.9M 21.13
DIOD 11/04 Cup hdl 28.78 +1.28 26.08 31.25 182K 75K 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
DJO 09/11 Cup 23 +2 14 16.45 201K 100K 19.22
Current.
EASI 10/14 A Wedge 46.79 +1.73 44.06 50 143K 287K 45.25
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 55.49 +1.36 53.78 60 8.1M 9M 55.45
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 55.49 +1.36 40.04 46 8.1M 8M 57.25
Current.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 5.94 -0.07 4.3 5.22 373K 300K 5.22
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 15.14 +0.16 11.24 13.38 260K 350K 13.12
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 15.14 +0.16 9.33 11.12 260K 400K 13.12
Current.
ET 09/18 Cup hdl 10.73 +0.4 10.8 12.94 3.7M 7M 10.36
Current.
FDX 11/06 BO 76.38 +0.32 77.72 90 1.3M 1.8M 72.28
Current.
FOSL 11/12 DB hdl 29.76 +1.79 28.75 33.55 439K 369K 26.98
Current.
FOSL 11/01 DB hdl 29.76 +1.79 28.17 33.55 439K 369K 26.98
Current.
GGP 10/14 FlyPlat 79.92 +1.32 75.12 86.25 216K 275K 77.74
Current.
GRMN 11/09 Cup hdl 50.49 +0.5 52.62 60.62 211K 690K 48.98
Buy Not Hit.
HSIC 11/09 Flat 65.69 +0.88 64.02 73.62 460K 494K 61.88
Buy Not Issued.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 32.74 -0.13 29.05 34.55 3M 4.7M 32.75
Current.
JAH 09/06 Cup hdl 42.3 +0.6 38.39 45.75 57K 270K 41.12
Current.
KEI 11/05 Cup hdl 17.75 +0.55 18.37 22.05 49K 150K 17.45
Current.
KLAC 11/06 Dbl btm 60.08 +1.08 61.06 73 6.6M 12M 58.45
Buy Not Issued.
KSWS 11/09 Test BO 43.55 +0.8 43.28 49.85 123K 225K 42.22
Buy Not Issued.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 84.55 +1.29 58.5 67.78 331K 610K 82.92
Current.
MDS 11/09 Cup 14.4 +0.5 14.28 17.21 249K 120K 13.63
Current.
MIK 11/04 A Wedge 50.55 +1.35 49 58.74 440K 873K 47.32
Current.
MIPS 11/01 A Wedge 5.92 +0.14 5.22 6.55 476K 291K 5.48
Current.
MOBE 09/15 Cup hdl 11.8 +0.55 8.7 10.88 1.1M 810K 10.88
Current.
MSCC 10/28 Rv H&S 22.55 +1 20.58 24.72 289K 480K 21.21
Buy Not Issued.
NSM 09/17 BO 43.62 +1.59 35.35 42 2.5M 5M 41.72
Current.
NVLS 11/11 Test BO 44.45 +1.15 43.95 52 6.1M 8.5M 42.88
Current.
ORLY 08/19 Flat 43.21 +0.79 39.48 47.05 143K 350K 42.35
Current.
PIR 11/09 Test BO 26.15 +0.36 25.7 30.62 437K 1.6M 24.12
Current.
PLXT 11/03 A Wedge 9.92 -0.07 8.81 10.96 173K 222K 8.94
Current.
QCOM 11/05 Test BO 47.81 +1.39 48.12 57.25 6.8M 14M 45.72
Buy Not Hit.
RI 09/30 Cup hdl 29.58 +0.34 27.72 33 597K 750K 27.54
ROST 11/11 Rv H&S 54.23 +0.68 54.25 65 546K 1.2M 52.34
Buy Not Hit.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 32.59 +0.6 30.35 36.75 2M 6M 30.96
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 32.59 +0.6 26.3 30.94 2M 6M 30.96
Current.
SCSS 11/11 Test 50 28.44 +0.64 29.22 35 638K 1M 28.96
Buy Not Hit.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 36.84 +1.58 41.55 50 7.6M 15M 39.42
Current.
SINA 09/09 Cup 36.84 +1.58 36.15 41 7.6M 12M 37.55
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 36.84 +1.58 32.2 38.25 7.6M 10M 37.55
Current.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 33 +1.5 37.69 45 3M 9M 34.85
Current.
STLW 11/04 DB hdl 6.34 +0.09 6.37 7.95 16K 132K 6.28
Current.
SYK 09/20 Flat 81.11 +0.51 78.97 90.25 364K 1.1M 80.99
Current.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 65.25 -0.65 61.51 73 368K 501K 65.32
Current.
TIWI 10/16 Cup hdl 7.72 -0.5 5.57 7 2.1M 350K 7.55
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 41.65 +0.22 28.06 31.44 434K 494K 40.94
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 41.65 +0.22 26.62 30 434K 500K 40.94
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 41.65 +0.22 23.42 27.62 434K 603K 40.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 41.65 +0.22 21.88 26 434K 603K 40.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 41.65 +0.22 19.3 22.19 434K 577K 40.94
Current.
TVIA 11/04 Cup hdl 2.28 +0.18 2.38 3.09 120K 219K 2.18
Buy Not Issued.
TXCC 11/11 Test 18 3.33 +0.13 3.38 4.42 1.8M 2.2M 3.12
Buy Not Issued.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 30.7 +1.04 27.65 33.18 10M 18M 29.48
Current.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 70.61 +2.25 71.12 84 185K 315K 68.72
Current.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 70.61 +2.25 68.95 82 185K 315K 68.42
Current.
URBN 10/18 Rv H&S 36 -0.02 33.61 40 563K 953K 33.34
Current.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 65.77 +1.58 64.5 74.25 410K 1.1M 64.12
Current.
VARI 11/03 Cup hdl 39.83 +1.07 39.21 46.88 156K 260K 37.97
Current.
VRSN 11/03 Rv H&S 17.13 +0.63 16.78 20.15 3.2M 5.5M 16.35
Current.
VRTS 10/04 Test 50 38.43 +1.47 35.77 42.88 4.3M 1M 37.25
Current.
XLNX 11/12 DB hdl 35.04 +1.19 34.78 41 5.8M 11M 32.88
Current.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 35.04 +1.19 32.68 38.68 5.8M 11M 32.88
Current.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 64.16 +0.98 51.12 59.55 1.4M 3M 63.55
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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