|
|
us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Thursday: BLUD; DIOD; DJO; ECIL; STLW; URBN; VAR
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 11/13/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$124.37; +3.24; optionable): High end audio equipment. Splits 2:1 on 12-5-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test breakout. HAR exploded higher off 110 in late October, ran to 134, and then fell back hard to start this week. It has held at 120 and started back up Wednesday. It rallied up to the 10 day MVA (124.69) but stalled out there on lower, below average volume. We are looking for it to clear that level on rising volume to enter for another pre-split run. Looking at options on this one.
Volume: 269.1K Avg Volume: 308.383K
BUY POINT: $125.25 Volume=325K Target=$133.55 Stop=$122.88
POSITION: HAR AE - Jan. $125c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/13/2003
BWC (Belden--$19.96; +0.81; no options): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BWC is making the breakout move from a very nice 9 week base sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows a lot of big money buying the stock during the base and setting up the foundation for a strong move higher. It ussed the 50 day MVA (18.39) roughly as the bottom of the base. It formed a week long handle over the 10 day MVA (19.20), coming back to rest on that level this week before blasting higher Thursday. Solid action and looking to pick it up on this breakout move.
Volume: 124.4K Avg Volume: 103.38K
BUY POINT: $20.08 Volume=155K Target=$24.12 Stop=$19.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwc.html
Play Date: 11/13/2003
CRA (Applera--$13.79; +0.54; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume was up to average Thursday as CRA started higher, close to the breakout of its 5 month base. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 8 to 1. Money flow is racing higher ahead of the price as it worked laterally below 14, and relative strength is making the breakout as well, an indication of a solid move. Looking ot pick it up as it clears the recent intraday high.
Volume: 621.1K Avg Volume: 539.593K
BUY POINT: $13.94 Volume=809K Target=$16.75 Stop=$13.23
POSITION: CRA CV - Mar. $12.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cra.html
Play Date: 11/13/2003
SONS (Sonus Networks--$9.37; +0.41; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sons.html
STATUS: Breakout. Volume jumped Thursday as SONS broke from an 11 week ascending triangle. It used the 50 day MVA (8.09) as the bottom, making a series of higher lows along that key support as it built a constant top near 9. Thursday it was racing over those highs on strong trade. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the base to set the foundation. Good breakout and looking to get in and ride it from here.
Volume: 12.28M Avg Volume: 4.557M
BUY POINT: $9.48 Volume=6.8M Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.77
POSITION: UJS DB - Apr. $10c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sons.html
Play Date: 11/13/2003
ULGX (Urologix--$5.65; +0.15; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulgx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A sweet little 8 week base that used the 50 day MVA (4.92) as the support for the two legs in the 'W' pattern. It has spent the last week forming a handle, pulling back to the 18 day MVA (5.21) on low volume to shake out the last sellers and that sets the stage for the next strong move higher. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 4 to 0. Money flow is moving up ahead of price and relative strength is ready for the breakout. Solid pattern.
Volume: 56.656K Avg Volume: 86.537K
BUY POINT: $5.94 Volume=130K Target=$7.45 Stop=$5.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ulgx.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 11/09/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$51.08; +0.59; optionable): Portable GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving up off the 10 day MVA (50.38) in the test of the huge blast higher to end October. It is working on the handle of a 20 week base that started on news it was not getting a contract to put devices into Chrysler cars. GRMN, however, just reported blowout numbers toward the end of October. That shot the stock higher, forming the rest of the right side of the cup base. Accumulation in the base is a strong 6 to 3 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating that big money has been quietly accumulating the stock during the base. It is starting back up, bt we want to see a lot more volume.
Volume: 317.751K Avg Volume: 454.992K
BUY POINT: $52.62 Volume=690K Target=$60.62 Stop=$48.98
POSITION: GQR DK - Apr. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
MDCC (Molecular Devices--$20; +0.43; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdcc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving up to the buy point but on very low, below average volume. A very nice 7 week base showing strong 3 to 1 accumulation, but it needs to get some volume on a further move for us to get in.
Volume: 33.46K Avg Volume: 58.639K
BUY POINT: New: $20.12 (orig. $19.82) Volume=87K Target=$23.78 Stop=$18.72
POSITION: MCQ DD - Apr. $20c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mdcc.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$47.7; -0.11; optionable): Telecom equipment and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QCOM broke out of a 5 week base to end April, rallying to 48 and then moving laterally the past two weeks over the 18 day MVA (46.54) as it consolidates the move. Volume has backed way off as it should on a consolidation. It is tightening up the range between the 18 day MVA and 48 on the high. Looking for a strong, above average volume move over 48 to enter new positions.
Volume: 4.678M Avg Volume: 10.055M
BUY POINT: $48.12 Volume=14M Target=$57.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAO DW - Apr. $47.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: Many stocks making moves without announcing splits as companies are still a bit gun-shy. Still getting strong moves from these leaders, and that is why we love split-caliber stocks. They also tend to announce after earnings as JAH shows. At this juncture many have rallied higher out of buy position, but there are still some that look ready to move. We will continue to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong.
ACV: No split on 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03 but an excellent breakout.
AVP: Broke the 18 day MVA and we exited.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
FDX: Forecast 12-17-03.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03. No split but great earnings and looks ready for a lot more upside.
FRED: Forecast 11-20-03.
HSIC: Forecast 11-20-03
KLAC: Still researching the date.
LM: No split on 10-22 with earnings. Moving laterally over the 10 day MVA.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
ORLY: No split announced 10-28-03 after the close. Auto parts are announcing splits so we are researching the next day.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
PIR: Forecast 12-4-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting. Powering higher.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03.
UOPX: Researching the next date.
VRTS: No split announced on 10-22-03. Researching the next possible date.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/06/2003
FDX (Federal Express--$77.08; +0.7; optionable): Express delivery. Forecast to announce a split on 12-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-18-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $92. Also announced a 2 for 1 on 10-1-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-29-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After rallying to 78 on the breakout, FDX came back to test the 10 day MVA (76.02) and held. Thursday it started back up on below average volume but still better than the prior week. Need to see some more volume for new positions.
Volume: 1.204M Avg Volume: 1.447M
BUY POINT: $77.72 Volume=1.8M Target=$90 Stop=$72.28
POSITION: FDX AO - Jan. $75c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$59.1; -0.98; optionable): Chip equipment. Chip equipment. Still researching to pinpoint the exact date, but looks ready for a bigger move higher.
BACKGROUND: Split 2:1 in January 2001 at the height of the tech boom. It is now coming back and growing earnings, heading for that $70 area that has become the primary split range.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Rallied off the 18 day MVA (58.44) starting Tuesday and looked solid, but the AMAT earnings pushed it back Thursday. Volume was up as it tested the 18 day and then rallied back to close over the 10 day. Still working in the 10 week base, trying to make a higher low here. 2 to 1 accumulation as it makes a higher low and moves toward the breakout.
Volume: 7.793M Avg Volume: 8.685M
BUY POINT: $61.06 Volume=12M Target=$73 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: KCQ AL - Jan. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/klac.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
PIR (Pier 1 Imports--$25.72; -0.43; optionable): Home furnishing stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 12-9-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates, but based upon our research these are the dates.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in June 1998 at a stock price of $25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pir.html
STATUS: Breakout. Unable to extend the gap higher on its raised guidance, and now looks as if it will make that test back toward the 10 day MVA at 25 before continuing the move. Volume was up but still below average on the Thursday fade. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move show the underlying strength. Just need to be patient for the pullback and then let it rebound on better volume.
Volume: 805.7K Avg Volume: 1.041M
BUY POINT: Test 25, then $25.25 on the way back up. If it starts from here, 26.12 on above average volume. Volume=1.6M Target=$30.35 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: PIR CE - Mar. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pir.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
ROST (Ross Stores--$53.84; -0.39; optionable): Discount apparel. Forecast to announce a split on 11-18-03 during the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $42.32.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A nice short 5 week pattern that used the 50 day MVA (50.74) at the low and the 18 day MVA (52.46) on the shoulder lows. Volume jumped as it tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (53.02) and rebounded. Super money flow and a relative strength breakout, so just being patient and waiting for a solid move through the buy point on strong trade.
Volume: 903.264K Avg Volume: 814.416K
BUY POINT: $54.25 Volume=1.2M Target=$65 Stop=$52.34
POSITION: REQ BK - Feb. $55c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
SCSS (Select Comfort--$28.57; +0.13; optionable): Air mattresses. Researching a date for SCSS but great entry point so we wanted to get it on the report.
BACKGROUND: Trading for 5 years but no split yet. It is in a range where retailers start to announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (27.50). Still hugging the 50 day MVA, showing a doji over that level Thursday. SCSS broke out from a cup with handle in April and made a stellar run higher using the 50 day as support. It has bounced up off the 50 day two prior times and has come back to this key level Looking for a strong move back up, clearing the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA) to take positions.
Volume: 346.359K Avg Volume: 509.272K
BUY POINT: $29.22 Volume=1M Target=$35 Stop=$28.96
POSITION: QSL CF - Mar. $30c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scss.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$71.37; +0.76; optionable): Online education. Researching the next split date, but it is bouncing well off the 50 day MVA.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. UOPX is moving more or less in a trading range from 65 to 75, but made a higher low at the 50 day MVA (67.76). In a trading range that is often an indication of a breakout move to come. Looking for UOPX to move over the early November high (72.98) on above average volume.
Volume: 152.708K Avg Volume: 244.758K
BUY POINT: $73.05 Volume=315K Target=$84 Stop=$68.72
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/11/2003
CLE (Claires Stores--$42.27; +0.71; optionable): Apparel Stores. Splits 2:1 on 12-22-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CLE has tested the 10 day MVA (41.13) for the fourth session and then started higher Thursday on rising though still below average volume. Starting the move.
Volume: 344.2K Avg Volume: 439.724K
BUY POINT: New: $42.42 (orig. $41.75) Volume=500K Target=$48 Stop=$40.62
POSITION: CLE BH - Feb. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$43.79; +0.24; optionable): Athletic shoes and apparel. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Moving up off the 18 day MVA (42.71) though volume remains below average as it does. Wanted to see more trade. Money flow is rallying ahead of price. Looks solid, but again, needs more volume.
Volume: 143.063K Avg Volume: 182.773K
BUY POINT: New: 44.06 (orig. $43.28) Volume=225K Target=$49.85 Stop=$42.22
POSITION: SWU AH - Jan. $40c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/12/2003
GPRO (Gen Probe--$30.21; +0.09; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GPRO has just formed the handle to its 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). This stock was a big winner for us on its run from its breakout in late April, but after a 40 point run it needed a breather. It fell into this base. After a three session handle (the pullback matched the market), it held the 10 day MVA (28.34) and bounced Wednesday on strong volume. Thursday GPRO was rallying again, hitting 31.07 on the high. It could not hold the move, however and fell back. Trying to make the break, so we are going to stay with it and watch for greater volume on the next attempt.
Volume: 1.009M Avg Volume: 749.167K
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=1.1M Target=$36.65 Stop=$28.33
POSITION: PSU BF - Feb. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$33; +0.26; optionable): Video poker, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Still hugging the 18 day MVA on a pullback from the nice run higher in October and the early November shot higher. It has tested back and is now moving laterally right at the 10 day MVA (32.89). A very orderly test, and now we look for it to make the rebound on solid volume. It tried Wednesday but fell back. Not giving up on it.
Volume: 1.837M Avg Volume: 2.528M
BUY POINT: New: 33.55 (orig. $29.05) Volume=4.7M Target=$39 (orig. positions $34.55) Stop=$32.75
POSITION: IGT AY - Jan. $27.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
top stock pick
|
